Becoming a developed country by 2041.

[Homo Sapiens]

12:00 AM, April 30, 2017 / LAST MODIFIED: 12:00 AM, April 30, 2017
Becoming a developed country by 2041

Source: wallpaperup.com
Biru Paksha Paul


In 1962, US president John F Kennedy declared in his famous moon speech, “We choose to go to the moon.” Since then the US increased its budget and efforts to beat the then Soviet Union in the space race and eventually, American astronauts landed on the moon in 1969. A definite target coupled with a strong leadership made the American dream possible. Kennedy also articulated that the mission will be accomplished within the decade – and so it happened, even though the great leader was assassinated in 1963. No country has ever achieved a great dream without an ambitious, definite target.

Similarly, we hear from our Prime Minister and many leaders that Bangladesh will be a developed country by 2041. Only 24 years are left and we need to make per capita income more than USD 12,000, which is an eightfold increase from the current level of around USD 1,500. As history shows, we increased our per capita income in current dollars by around five times over the last 24 years. Not too bad. But this happened during the quarter century of growth acceleration under market economy and liberalisation. That trend of acceleration is no longer in place right now. We needed 42 years to reach the current level marking an eightfold increase in per capital income. If the past is any guide to the future, augmenting per capita income by eightfold will be extremely difficult for the country, given the current infrastructural bottlenecks, knowledge gap, institutional flaws, and judicial backwardness.

Per capita income is not the only qualification for being a developed nation. Other attributes, such as high standard of living, quality education, timely justice dispensation, environmental upgradation, and political stability are essential. Let's say one morning we discover oil under the soil. This gain may make our per capita income skyrocket to reach USD 12,000 dollars, but social standards will not develop overnight. Even if we assume that only a rise in income will solve everything, reaching the developed-country income level by 2041 seems impossible under the current scenario of income and population growth. All we need to focus on is per capita income (PCI) growth, which is approximately equal to GDP growth minus population growth. Three ways can make PCI growth possible: 1) raise GDP growth 2) lower population growth, and 3) do both simultaneously. Bangladesh seems to follow the first line at present.

It is hard to reduce population growth, which was the highest at 3.3 percent in 1967 in this country. It took us fifty years to reduce the growth rate by only 2 percentage points. The government expects that by the end of FY2017, our per capita income will reach USD 1,598, which appears to be an overestimation. The World Bank's classification requires per capita income to be at least USD 12,476 to qualify as a developed economy. Assuming FY2017 figures such as population growth is at 1.3 percent, GDP growth at 7.2 percent, and thus per capita income growth is 5.9 percent, we need another 36 years to be a developed country, suggesting it would be by 2054 and not by 2041.

We are not sure who did the math for our Prime Minister and who convinced politicians in power to sell the number to the public. The slogan of being a middle-income country by 2021 has delivered much credibility to the government, which, in contrast, is losing its credibility by suggesting that we will become a developed nation by 2041. We require so many ifs and buts to justify the target line of 2041, turning a noble dream into a fantasy. We should instead focus on when we can be an upper middle-income country. Based on the current numbers and assumptions, reaching that level - with per capita income at USD 4,036 - will require another sixteen years. We can be an upper-middle income country if we can accelerate both GDP growth and birth control even in 2031 – the year that marks the diamond jubilee of our independence. Pledging to become an upper-middle income country by 2031 could be a brilliant campaign instead of pointing to the distant year of 2041 that lacks proper forecasting and credibility.

Simple math shows that we need to achieve at least nine percent growth in per capita income if we really want to become a developed country by 2041. That number will require at least 10 percent GDP growth per year on average for 24 years assuming that population grows by 1 percent. The regime must be ambitious to radiate aspirations to the public, but these numbers seem impractical even though we assume that there will be a drastic improvement in our infrastructure and institutions. Hence, while the slogan of becoming a developed country should prevail to inspire the nation toward the best, the year should be revised to 2054 or 2051 that marks eighty years of our independence.

Undoubtedly, our GDP growth has been rising marginally in recent years, but the rate of rise in GDP growth shows a slightly declining tendency, demanding immediate attention to address deficiencies in institutions first. Otherwise, even aspiring to become an upper middle-income country by 2031 will be difficult. The most feasible way to realise our dream is to reduce population growth to as close to zero percent as possible. Population control was the most successful public policy in Bangladesh's history, followed by universal primary education. The government witnessed tremendous success in birth control in the 1970s and 1980s. We do not know why the campaign kept losing steam since the 1990s. More births are taking place in poorer areas leading to lingering poverty and aggravating income inequality in this heavily populous country.

Bangladesh can become a developed country in 2046, instead of 2053, at the current GDP growth only if population growth can be reduced to zero. No matter how ambitious this sounds, any success in population control could hasten our journey of becoming a developed country.



The writer is visiting fellow of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and guest faculty at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Dhaka University. Email: birupakshapaul@gmail.com
http://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/open-sky-0/becoming-developed-country-2041-1398349

 

[Homo Sapiens]

We may or may not enter the develoved countries rank by 2041,but it is better to have a vision and work accordingly.

 

[UKBengali]

The writer is an economic dunce as he does not understand that the value of the Taka will rise against the dollar as the country gets richer.

Becoming just about an industrialised country by 2041 is really no big deal, and short of war or massive natural calamity it will almost happen. What is less clear is whether BD can then go on and become as developed like Japan as an example.

 

[UKBengali]

BD is definitely going in the right directions and I see only 2 challenges:
1. Population growth putting a strain on limited resources.
2. The challenge of rising sea levels.
If these two can be put under control and significant investments made in education and skill development to exploit the already growing manufacturing sector, BD has great potential to emulate nations such as Taiwan.

1. Population growth is under control. It is now down to only 1.05% a year and will almost certainly be falling below 1% soon.

2. Rising sea levels are not a big deal. If absolutely nothing is done, then BD will lose 17% of it's land by 2100. There will be some loss but most of it will be stopped by building sea defences. BD could actually end up being
larger in size as extra land is being created by sedimentation being brought down all the time from thr Himalayas into the Bay of Bengal.

 

[maximuswarrior]

We may or may not enter the develoved countries rank by 2041,but it is better to have a vision and work accordingly.

LOL keep working. We'll see where it gets you.

BD is definitely going in the right directions and I see only 2 challenges:
1. Population growth putting a strain on limited resources.
2. The challenge of rising sea levels.
If these two can be put under control and significant investments made in education and skill development to exploit the already growing manufacturing sector, BD has great potential to emulate nations such as Taiwan.

You do understand how much resources and support Taiwan received from the Americans to be where they are today. It also didn't come for free because Taiwan has to act like an American poodle. Too bad China is in firm control.

You have to be a fool to make a comparison between BD and Taiwan.

Ignore the trolls, Bangladesh has huge potential, and is on the right track.

Yep, they just got a certificate from you.

 

[Bilal9]

1. Population growth is under control. It is now down to only 1.05% a year and will almost certainly be falling below 1% soon.

2. Rising sea levels are not a big deal. If absolutely nothing is done, then BD will lose 17% of it's land by 2100. There will be some loss but most of it will be stopped by building sea defences. BD could actually end up being
larger in size as extra land is being created by sedimentation being brought down all the time from thr Himalayas into the Bay of Bengal.

1. Population growth is probably lowest in South Asia (lower than even India) and close to replacement rate (2.1 child per woman fertility rate).

2. We have to work on building dams and polders a la Holland for sea level defence. The whole country of Holland is below sea level. Only way they survive from being flooded is by building polders (embankments) to keep out the sea.

Here's an article on social indicators in Bangladesh (including population growth) written by Jairam Ramesh (one of the saner people in India).

Heard of the ‘Bangladesh shining’ story?
Jairam RameshVarad PandePranjul Bhandari

The country has shown that it is possible to have superior social outcomes at lower per capita incomes and rates of economic growth
Bangladesh is very much in the news these days in our country, but for the wrong reasons. In the unfortunate Bangladesh-bashing that seems to have become somewhat of a pastime, we seem to have failed to notice the striking developmental success that it has had in the last few decades, compared with some high-profile Indian States.

Consider this. Bangladesh is considerably “poorer” than India going by GDP alone — its GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power parity) in 2010 was only $1,585, roughly half of India’s ($3,419) and less than a third of Gujarat’s ($5,098) and Haryana’s ($5,434). But how is Bangladesh doing on social dimensions compared to some of our “richer” States?

Let us start with the status of children. In almost every standard indicator of child development, Bangladesh is doing better than some of the richer Indian States.

The infant mortality rate and the under-five mortality rate in Bangladesh is better than 13 large Indian States, including much richer Indian States like Gujarat, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh.

The proportion of children that are underweight is also lower in Bangladesh compared to six Indian States, including richer Gujarat where the Chief Minister has now come up with a truly bizarre explanation for the prevalence of malnutrition there.

Interestingly, Bangladesh’s Total Fertility Rate, which measures the children born per woman, is 2.2 (which is nearly the “replacement rate”) and lower than 10 large Indian States, including Gujarat (2.5) and Haryana (2.3). Even when it comes to access to improved sanitation, Bangladesh again does better than every large Indian State other than Kerala, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal.

What does all this data tell us? Clearly, Bangladesh demonstrates that it is possible to have superior social outcomes at lower per capita incomes and lower rates of economic growth. There is more to social development than just GDP. So why has Bangladesh done so well?

Two arguments
Let us first examine the arguments of the naysayers. One set of sceptics would argue that Bangladesh simply “exports its poverty” to India, especially to our Northeast. But even if one believes the most exaggerated statistics of Bangladeshi migration to India, not more than five to six per cent of Bangladeshis seek their livelihoods in our country.

The second argument of the naysayers is that Bangladesh’s data is fudged or exaggerated by the donor community to justify its larger than life presence in the country. However, doctoring national data at such scale is simply not possible in today’s day and age of scrutiny by academics, researchers and sceptics.

So how might have Bangladesh done it? Spending has something to do with it. As Jean Drèze has argued, the public health expenditure as a proportion of the GDP in Bangladesh has been much higher than in India until a few years ago.

Another clear lesson is that grassroot institutions seem to matter. One of the major reasons for the success of Bangladesh has been social mobilisation at the local level, such as through women’s self-help groups (SHG), which has led to increased public awareness and greater accountability in service delivery. A lot of this has been facilitated by robust and effective development NGOs that have achieved scale — in fact, Bangladesh is perhaps the best case study of NGO success anywhere in the world. As scholars have argued, NGOs are involved at scale in virtually every development activity in the country, including education, health, poverty alleviation, etc. NGOs may have “broad-based” social development in Bangladesh, as some have argued, since they have primarily worked with the poor through social campaigns, but this phenomenon may be unique to Bangladesh, as state institutions may be weaker, as compared to countries like India, and NGOs may be filling up that space.

Nevertheless, there are lessons for India — effective grassroot institutions matter for service delivery. In the Indian context, financially and administratively empowering the Panchayati Raj institutions, with their 2,50,000 gram panchayats, and 30 lakh elected representatives (of which 12 lakh are women) is critical. This is not happening on any significant scale. Similarly, the 30 lakh women’s SHGs (that we hope to increase to 70 lakh in the next five years through the National Rural Livelihoods Mission — Aajeevika), could play a major role in improving social outcomes. But for this to happen, we will need to ensure that these SHGs are linked to banks and involved in service delivery, as in Andhra Pradesh.

Enhancing connectivity
Currently, 80 per cent of all credit to SHGs goes to the four southern States of India — Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala — and this needs to be broad-based nationally. In addition, we need to enhance rural connectivity — the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY), a major success in connecting habitations above 500 population with pucca roads, needs to scaled up to connect smaller habitations. Sanitation and hygiene have to undergo a veritable revolution, given their multiplier effects on reducing child mortality and malnutrition, enhancing economic productivity, and upholding the dignity of women.

Clearly we must not settle for lower GDP growth rates in India. Indeed, the data shows that there is a clear positive correlation between GDP and social development indicators. More importantly, continued high rates of GDP growth are required for generating resources to invest in health and education, and sustaining the investments on the required scale.

But what Bangladesh’s experience shows is that we don’t have to wait for that high economic growth to trigger social transformations. Robust grassroot institutions can achieve much that money can’t buy.

(Jairam Ramesh was Union Minister for Rural Development. Varad Pande was with the Ministry of Rural Development and Pranjul Bhandari, the Planning Commission.)

 

[Michael Corleone]

Sure thing. You just keep dreaming.

It's the dreamers who change the world.

12:00 AM, April 30, 2017 / LAST MODIFIED: 12:00 AM, April 30, 2017
Becoming a developed country by 2041

Source: wallpaperup.com
Biru Paksha Paul


In 1962, US president John F Kennedy declared in his famous moon speech, “We choose to go to the moon.” Since then the US increased its budget and efforts to beat the then Soviet Union in the space race and eventually, American astronauts landed on the moon in 1969. A definite target coupled with a strong leadership made the American dream possible. Kennedy also articulated that the mission will be accomplished within the decade – and so it happened, even though the great leader was assassinated in 1963. No country has ever achieved a great dream without an ambitious, definite target.

Similarly, we hear from our Prime Minister and many leaders that Bangladesh will be a developed country by 2041. Only 24 years are left and we need to make per capita income more than USD 12,000, which is an eightfold increase from the current level of around USD 1,500. As history shows, we increased our per capita income in current dollars by around five times over the last 24 years. Not too bad. But this happened during the quarter century of growth acceleration under market economy and liberalisation. That trend of acceleration is no longer in place right now. We needed 42 years to reach the current level marking an eightfold increase in per capital income. If the past is any guide to the future, augmenting per capita income by eightfold will be extremely difficult for the country, given the current infrastructural bottlenecks, knowledge gap, institutional flaws, and judicial backwardness.

Per capita income is not the only qualification for being a developed nation. Other attributes, such as high standard of living, quality education, timely justice dispensation, environmental upgradation, and political stability are essential. Let's say one morning we discover oil under the soil. This gain may make our per capita income skyrocket to reach USD 12,000 dollars, but social standards will not develop overnight. Even if we assume that only a rise in income will solve everything, reaching the developed-country income level by 2041 seems impossible under the current scenario of income and population growth. All we need to focus on is per capita income (PCI) growth, which is approximately equal to GDP growth minus population growth. Three ways can make PCI growth possible: 1) raise GDP growth 2) lower population growth, and 3) do both simultaneously. Bangladesh seems to follow the first line at present.

It is hard to reduce population growth, which was the highest at 3.3 percent in 1967 in this country. It took us fifty years to reduce the growth rate by only 2 percentage points. The government expects that by the end of FY2017, our per capita income will reach USD 1,598, which appears to be an overestimation. The World Bank's classification requires per capita income to be at least USD 12,476 to qualify as a developed economy. Assuming FY2017 figures such as population growth is at 1.3 percent, GDP growth at 7.2 percent, and thus per capita income growth is 5.9 percent, we need another 36 years to be a developed country, suggesting it would be by 2054 and not by 2041.

We are not sure who did the math for our Prime Minister and who convinced politicians in power to sell the number to the public. The slogan of being a middle-income country by 2021 has delivered much credibility to the government, which, in contrast, is losing its credibility by suggesting that we will become a developed nation by 2041. We require so many ifs and buts to justify the target line of 2041, turning a noble dream into a fantasy. We should instead focus on when we can be an upper middle-income country. Based on the current numbers and assumptions, reaching that level - with per capita income at USD 4,036 - will require another sixteen years. We can be an upper-middle income country if we can accelerate both GDP growth and birth control even in 2031 – the year that marks the diamond jubilee of our independence. Pledging to become an upper-middle income country by 2031 could be a brilliant campaign instead of pointing to the distant year of 2041 that lacks proper forecasting and credibility.

Simple math shows that we need to achieve at least nine percent growth in per capita income if we really want to become a developed country by 2041. That number will require at least 10 percent GDP growth per year on average for 24 years assuming that population grows by 1 percent. The regime must be ambitious to radiate aspirations to the public, but these numbers seem impractical even though we assume that there will be a drastic improvement in our infrastructure and institutions. Hence, while the slogan of becoming a developed country should prevail to inspire the nation toward the best, the year should be revised to 2054 or 2051 that marks eighty years of our independence.

Undoubtedly, our GDP growth has been rising marginally in recent years, but the rate of rise in GDP growth shows a slightly declining tendency, demanding immediate attention to address deficiencies in institutions first. Otherwise, even aspiring to become an upper middle-income country by 2031 will be difficult. The most feasible way to realise our dream is to reduce population growth to as close to zero percent as possible. Population control was the most successful public policy in Bangladesh's history, followed by universal primary education. The government witnessed tremendous success in birth control in the 1970s and 1980s. We do not know why the campaign kept losing steam since the 1990s. More births are taking place in poorer areas leading to lingering poverty and aggravating income inequality in this heavily populous country.

Bangladesh can become a developed country in 2046, instead of 2053, at the current GDP growth only if population growth can be reduced to zero. No matter how ambitious this sounds, any success in population control could hasten our journey of becoming a developed country.



The writer is visiting fellow of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and guest faculty at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Dhaka University. Email: birupakshapaul@gmail.com
http://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/open-sky-0/becoming-developed-country-2041-1398349

Very good article. But population growth cat ever be zero unless you decide to sterilize the entire bd population. I don't see bd becoming a developed nation by 2041 either... it's post 2050 in my books even more time to put s safe bet. But good things are happening and they're happening fast. So I'm not much worried. Just hope that the kids stop watching doremon and sit at home playing video games and instead go out in the park and wonder! Wonder how bees fly, wonder why trees are green, wonder how cars work? Curiosity encourages to gain knowledge and the more knowledge they can grasp the better citizen they become to build their country faster into the future instead of being a useless rag population like it was about 30 years ago.

 

[That Guy]

It's unlikely that BD, or indeed India and Pakistan as well, will become developed nations, before 2050. All three are going to make leaps in the coming few decades, but they'll still be considered developing nations.

 

[Śakra]

First get out of LDC status before you dream about becoming a developed country.

 

[Mage]

2041? Eh....even if it happens I'll be middle aged by then

Lets concentrate on what we can do by 2021. Gov't wants make BD a middle income country by then....but it won't likely happen before 2027-30. So going by this rate becoming developed country would take like 2060..if it happens at all and I'll be a old retired dude by then that is if I stay alive....instead of dreaming I guess I better concentrate on c++ coding.....why this world is so rigged against me?

 

[Homo Sapiens]

2. Rising sea levels are not a big deal. If absolutely nothing is done, then BD will lose 17% of it's land by 2100. There will be some loss but most of it will be stopped by building sea defences. BD could actually end up being
larger in size as extra land is being created by sedimentation being brought down all the time from thr Himalayas into the Bay of Bengal.

Yes,if nothing is done.But most important thing is,whether things will be as bad as the dire prediction is being made about the global warming and sea level rise in a first place.A lot of apocalyptic prediction was made in 1960s and 1970s didn't materialized.Population bomb experts then predicted global famine by 2000s and resulting death of billions of people in the third world.Many expert predicted after 1971 war that,Bangladesh will not survive.There will be mass famine and deaths of millions in Bangladesh by mid 1980s.We all know how all these turned around.There is a great deal of fear mongering now about the sea level rise.It is yet to be seen,how much it materializes.But many fear monger is ignoring one crucial aspect of human nature,which is ingenuity, man is altering the landscape of this world to suit it's need for thousands of years. Millions of people are already living under sea level comfortably.There is no reason why another couple of hundred millions can't replicate them if dire prediction comes true.
Indian farmers beef up below sea-level system for climate fight
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/indi...ow-sea-level-system-for-climate-fight.491955/

 

[Arthur]

Just for some extra knowledge, what is the population distribution in BD? Is the pop. clustered around Dhakka or spread out?

 

[That Guy]

First get out of LDC status before you dream about becoming a developed country.

To be fair, BD will likely come out of that status very soon. It's economy is doing pretty well, and it's HDI is also increasing in a good manner. BD is also being catered to by two of the largest markets in the world, India and China, who're trying to buy influence in the country. So, either BD will end up getting crushed, or it'll come out pretty strong.


.....I mean, there is a third possibility, where it ends up being a permanent Indian puppet, which I think it highly likely.

 

[Nilgiri]

The second argument of the naysayers is that Bangladesh’s data is fudged or exaggerated by the donor community to justify its larger than life presence in the country. However, doctoring national data at such scale is simply not possible in today’s day and age of scrutiny by academics, researchers and sceptics.

Hehehe...BD's and congressis get along so well for a reason (best not go into that here)....dont let the stark facts hit you in the face regarding institutional quality, reliability and overall transparency and freedom:

https://object.cato.org/sites/cato....x-files/human-freedom-index-2016-update-3.pdf

Lets believe anything a highly corrupt (and stagnantly corrupt) LDC claims without any proper 3rd party vetting procedures (on the level of say the ICP):

http://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2016

Nah lets just say its "next to impossible" to fake say mortality data (basis of Life expectancy calculation) when the WHO has written papers on the subject concerning how countries could do so quite easily (especially seeing the sensitivity of a few % brackets in the population pyramid)...and thus how political propaganda desire could easily lead to their manipulation (as we already saw before in the BAL brochure of education "progress").

When a country cares enough about exposing another (say the US does with Cuba) someone takes notice beyond the usual level 1 (indifference and malaise)...so if no one cares about it, that just means we are to take it as pure fact and not challenge it. Just like no one should challenge the 3 million genocide claim either. Its a highly vetted and evidence-based number by BD...and even if you doubt it...dont doubt that the dr strangelove attitude to it is localised to only that arena of propaganda and nothing else.

Nothing to see here folks, everything is fine and dandy because the BBS (swimming in reputation and transparency) says so and all the "NGOs" rise in automatic pavlovian applause and head nodding.

@madokafc @LA se Karachi

 

[UKBengali]

To be fair, BD will likely come out of that status very soon. It's economy is doing pretty well, and it's HDI is also increasing in a good manner. BD is also being catered to by two of the largest markets in the world, India and China, who're trying to buy influence in the country. So, either BD will end up getting crushed, or it'll come out pretty strong.


.....I mean, there is a third possibility, where it ends up being a permanent Indian puppet, which I think it highly likely.

Lol.China will make sure that never happens.