BD’s per capita income to reach $16,000 by 2041: Azad

[VikingRaider]

Looks like you are trying to understand 4 lines extra.

Why don't you make me understand then without government bogus .

 

[xyxmt]

I am smelling something is burning, not your *** but inside.

you could smell it deep inside?

 

[TopCat]

12000 may be in 2041 dollar, but it would require many things to approach 12000 in 2018 dollar value.12000 dollar in 2018 is almost near the thresh hold set by world bank for high income country.

I will be more than happy if it were of 2041 dollar.

 

[bluesky]

Fine, this is election time talk. Can you tell us what is your thought, what will be Bangladesh's per capita income by 2041? If not 16000 usd, 12000 usd? Lets say 10000 usd? Or you do not even believe that? the roads and transportation system, and water logging have nothing to do with per capita income just for your info. But transportation system will be in much better shape by 2030.

Do not please talk of the future that much. A country that has not built the present cannot build also the future. And what is the value of a high GDP when people have to suffer from waterlogging, bad roads, footpaths and bus transport system, the noise and dust pollution, etc?

Please tell us when you will fix these problems to raise the standard of living of the people from all wakes of life. India has a good GDP per person, but we laugh at their open defecation. In bD it is almost the same. No local-style eatery has any toilet or even urinal in any of the towns and cities.

So, I just do not care about the amount of GDP. I care about the improved high-quality PUBLIC FACILITIES. An improved one will be highly regarded by other countries, however, I have read many posts by many in the PDF. All are after a superficial Bench Mark called GDP.

 

[Black_cats]

Do not please talk of the future that much. A country that has not built the present cannot build also the future. And what is the value of a high GDP when people have to suffer from waterlogging, bad roads, footpaths and bus transport system, the noise and dust pollution, etc?

Please tell us when you will fix these problems to raise the standard of living of the people from all wakes of life. India has a good GDP per person, but we laugh at their open defecation. In bD it is almost the same. No local-style eatery has any toilet or even urinal in any of the towns and cities.

So, I just do not care about the amount of GDP. I care about the improved high-quality PUBLIC FACILITIES. An improved one will be highly regarded by other countries, however, I have read many posts by many in the PDF. All are after a superficial Bench Mark called GDP.

Can not you see the big projects that is going on to resolve the problem? As governments revenue is increasing so is the amount of projects. Government has taken visible steps to resolve traffic congestion and transportation problem in and around Dhaka city. In near future it will be resolved. Same issue with water logging. It happened due to unplanned urbanization and filling up all the canal and lakes around Dhaka city to grab land. There are no quick fix to it but things are moving forward in the positive direction.

 

[bluesky]

Can not you see the big projects that is going on to resolve the problem? As governments revenue is increasing so is the amount of projects. Government has taken visible steps to resolve traffic congestion and transportation problem in and around Dhaka city. In near future it will be resolved. Same issue with water logging. It happened due to unplanned urbanization and filling up all the canal and lakes around Dhaka city to grab land. There are no quick fix to it but things are moving forward in the positive direction.

So, solve all these issues before people indulge in talking about a high GDP. A country is better regarded for its civilized facilities than the GDP. However, so far the talk of urban development has been hollow. Money is certainly needed. But, the way of thinking by the administrative people are more responsible for any development in the cities.

So, the footpaths remain broken and occupied by the hawkers. The roads are scattered with raw garbage and dust, the overbridges are unworthy and broken, shops are all unplanned and haphazard, eateries have no toilets, all the vehicles run haphazardly, etc. But people are so used to all these abnormal things that they do not feel otherwise. In BD, these are not the election issues. Issue is who is your brother. "আমার ভাই, তোমার ভাই। ভোট চাই ভোট চাই"।

There is a British proverb saying that a work half done is worse than not done. The British follow this rule but we follow the opposite course. Think of the govt planning to solve the Chittagong waterlogging issue. I have reasons to believe that the waterlogging will not cease even if the project is completed as per govt planning. This will be a complete wastage of money.

I fear the govt will take a similar unplanned and short-sighted approach to many issues that Dhaka needs to resolve to make it a civilized city.

 

[VikingRaider]

12000 may be in 2041 dollar, but it would require many things to approach 12000 in 2018 dollar value.12000 dollar in 2018 is almost near the thresh hold set by world bank for high income country.

Even if it will be 8 thousands it will be a big achievement. But sometimes I feel that awami league is a champion of defaming it's own achievements with such big big talks.
And also as @bluesky said , we need to heavily focus on other important factors and they are more important than increased GDP.
And also controlling market price is the biggest challenge as there is no point without it.
Gdp increase plan is good but exaggeration maybe good for getting attention from rest of the world, but if we don't have minimal facilities , then there is no way we are developing in right pace .

 

[Homo Sapiens]

So, I just do not care about the amount of GDP. I care about the improved high-quality PUBLIC FACILITIES. An improved one will be highly regarded by other countries, however, I have read many posts by many in the PDF. All are after a superficial Bench Mark called GDP.

Without raising GDP, how do you expect to raise the qualities of public facilities? Many of the things you are complaining about stem from low public expenditure per capita. Low public expenditure per capita largely dependent on low GDP per capita. When a country's population achieve a respectable earning level and provide a big amount of taxes, they demand better quality services, which in turn force the govt. and other hospitality industries to upgrade their qualities. So you can not ignore the GDP if you want to raise the qualities of the public infrastructure.

And also as @bluesky said , we need to heavily focus on other important factors and they are more important than increased GDP.
And also controlling market price is the biggest challenge as there is no point without it.

GDP is calculated after taking into consideration of market price or inflation.If Bangladesh GDP grow by 7 percent and price increase or inflation is 5 percent, that means, GDP increased 12 percent in current local currency.But GDP is calculated from a fixed base year which do not allow changing values of local currency to manipulate the GDP data. For our cases, it is the 2005-2006 base year.So when we says 7 percent GDP growth, it is the actual growth.

 

[VikingRaider]

GDP is calculated after taking into consideration of market price or inflation.If Bangladesh GDP grow by 7 percent and price increase or inflation is 5 percent, that means, GDP increased 12 percent in current local currency.But GDP is calculated from a fixed base year which do not allow changing values of local currency to manipulate the GDP data. For our cases, it is the 2005-2006 base year.So when says 7 percent GDP growth, it is the actual growth.

OK thanks for letting me know. I am not expert on such things.
But man, as I provided an example of beef. So it's true for other things too right? So what's the point if govt can't effectively control market? You saw that sometimes market goes out of control .
Isn't it necessary to take care? So if calculation goes like this then is it really true that we are achieving 7% gdp? Or atleast our standard of life haven't significantly changed ( for middle class ) . And it's also not realistic to think that it will be such high in 2041. My voice is actually against such exaggeration.
@Homo Sapiens

 

[Homo Sapiens]

But man, as I provided an example of beef. So it's true for other things too right? So what's the point if govt can't effectively control market? You saw that sometimes market goes out of control .
Isn't it necessary to take care? So if calculation goes like this then is it really true that we are achieving 7% gdp? Or at least our standard of life don't have in significant change you know .
@Homo Sapiens

Beef price increased 10 times nominally in the last 20 years.We used to buy 1 kg beef at 50 Taka in 1998 and we are paying 500 Taka for the same amount now.So it appears that, we are paying 10 times more. But actually it is not. In the last 20 years, Taka lost it's value very rapidly.Consider this, in 1998, 1 USD was worth 40 Taka, now it is 84 Taka. This is in excess of USD itself lost it's value in this 20 years.So you can imagine what is worth of 50 Taka of 1998 in today's market.So in naked eyes, it seems beef price increased 10 times, but in reality, no more than 3-4 times in fixed values of Taka. But take into consideration this also, 20 years ago, our per capita meat consumption was much lower that today. This means, income risen faster than the price.

But beef is an extreme case for price hike. For most things price did not rise that much or not at all in fixed rate.Consider about egg. A dozon egg costed average 30 Taka in 1998 and average 90 Taka at present.So increased 3 times in 20 years in market exchange rate but not at all in fixed exchange rate.Egg consumption rised significantly over the last 20 years. Similarly prices of Rice increased very little in fixed rate in the same duration. On the other hands, real per capita income doubled in the last 12-13 years. So there is no denying that purchasing power of the people is higher today of what was 20 years ago.

 

[TopCat]

Beef price increased 10 times nominally in the last 20 years.We used to buy 1 kg beef at 50 Taka in 1998 and we are paying 500 Taka for the same amount now.So it appears that, we are paying 10 times more. But actually it is not. In the last 20 years, Taka lost it's value very rapidly.Consider this, in 1998, 1 USD was worth 40 Taka, now it is 84 Taka. This is in excess of USD itself lost it's value in this 20 years.So you can imagine what is worth of 50 Taka of 1998 in today's market.So in naked eyes, it seems beef price increased 10 times, but in reality, no more than 3-4 times in fixed values of Taka. But take into consideration this also, 20 years ago, our per capita meat consumption was much lower that today. This means, income risen faster than the price.

But beef is an extreme case for price hike. For most things price did not rise that much or not at all in fixed rate.Consider about egg. A dozor egg costed average 30 Taka in 1998 and average 90 Taka at present.So increased 3 times in 20 years in market exchange rate but not at all in fixed exchange rate.Egg consumption rised significantly over the last 20 years. Similarly prices of Rice increased very little in fixed rate in the same duration. On the other hands, real per capita income doubled in the last 12-13 years. So there is no denying that purchasing power of the people is higher today of what was 20 years ago.

And how about electronics. A black and white TV used to cost 5000 taka in 1970s and meant fortune for a family. You could buy 3 acres of land for that. But now a color TV cost as much as 5-6000 taka.
I bought a 3rd grade Econo ball pen for 5 taka and now a 1st grade ball pen cost the same.
People's well being are not measured by the amount of money but the amount of consumption they can afford. As we adopt technology the product produced by automation get cheaper and cheaper and people can afford them in increased quantity. But at the same time product produced in traditional method getting costlier. Beef is just one example.
It also not only affordability but also availability. Imagine the world before penicillin or even orsaline.

 

[VikingRaider]

Beef price increased 10 times nominally in the last 20 years.We used to buy 1 kg beef at 50 Taka in 1998 and we are paying 500 Taka for the same amount now.So it appears that, we are paying 10 times more. But actually it is not. In the last 20 years, Taka lost it's value very rapidly.Consider this, in 1998, 1 USD was worth 40 Taka, now it is 84 Taka. This is in excess of USD itself lost it's value in this 20 years.So you can imagine what is worth of 50 Taka of 1998 in today's market.So in naked eyes, it seems beef price increased 10 times, but in reality, no more than 3-4 times in fixed values of Taka. But take into consideration this also, 20 years ago, our per capita meat consumption was much lower that today. This means, income risen faster than the price.

But beef is an extreme case for price hike. For most things price did not rise that much or not at all in fixed rate.Consider about egg. A dozor egg costed average 30 Taka in 1998 and average 90 Taka at present.So increased 3 times in 20 years in market exchange rate but not at all in fixed exchange rate.Egg consumption rised significantly over the last 20 years. Similarly prices of Rice increased very little in fixed rate in the same duration. On the other hands, real per capita income doubled in the last 12-13 years. So there is no denying that purchasing power of the people is higher today of what was 20 years ago.

Um well yes, I have understood now! Honestly never tried to think like this deep before!
So if we calculate everything in dollar standards and then equate with our income, then surely my calculations were wrong! Thanks for this explanation, it's really helpful.

 

[kenyannoobie]

If AL continues you should see 5-7000 dollar by 2030. By 2041 it will be more than 12000 for sure

India,Bangla and Kenya are growing faster than most of us recognise! We're all undertaking massive infrastructure programs with multiple power,road and rail building programs which are long term GDP growth enablers. Coupled with smart fiscal policy and social spending we've grown tremendously. In early 2003 our own GDP per capita was a mere 400$-now its 2000$. By 2030 we should be minimum 7500-8000$. By 2040 I see ourselves at minimum 20,000$. Ironically its RSA,the continental giant that's stagnated the past decade which is what their secret rulers want.

 

[bluesky]

More likely 8000 dollar.

Russia built its nuclear reactors when its per capita was still below $1500. No doubt with per capita above $16,000 BD will be leading the world in Mars missions, rocket trains, and flying cars.

Russia's current per capita GDP is only $11,278. They achieved this level without forecasting the future but by doing hard works.

 

[UKBengali]

India,Bangla and Kenya are growing faster than most of us recognise! We're all undertaking massive infrastructure programs with multiple power,road and rail building programs which are long term GDP growth enablers. Coupled with smart fiscal policy and social spending we've grown tremendously. In early 2003 our own GDP per capita was a mere 400$-now its 2000$. By 2030 we should be minimum 7500-8000$. By 2040 I see ourselves at minimum 20,000$. Ironically its RSA,the continental giant that's stagnated the past decade which is what their secret rulers want.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/f...1.y=12&c=513,664&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPDPC&grp=0&a=

Yes both countries are doing good.

BD is and will probably grow faster than the IMF predicts over the next 5 years.

Africa also has finally made a break with the past and is growing very well and it is nice to see a lot of countries like Kenya and Rwanda doing well economically.