Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
The author is a "postgraduate student at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore" and a USN ASW intelligence officer. That says a lot. Singapore is a US ally, tried and true.
As I've said in other threads before - India de-commissioned the equivalent to the Ming class (Foxtrots) some ten years ago.
India has since then surpassed every neighbor country in Asia in number and sophistication of submarines operated, except China (well North Korea has a lot of older hulks, mostly smaller in size).
India's supposed concern about Bangladesh' submarine purchase, sob-sister story and sending defense minister to Bangladesh should not fool anyone. It will take Bangladesh a decade to match Indian submarine force in sophistication, and BN will never match IN in number of submarines. It may achieve parity in a decade as a credible deterrent force, instead of being a doormat to be walked all over. But only if Bangladesh plays its cards right and only if it assures India that it is not a threat, which is pretty much reality.
Only neighbor of India who is even close to India's naval sub-surface capability is Pakistan, but India's induction of self-built SSBN capability will up-end that scenario soon, or already has. Pakistan wields enough submarine force to be a credible deterrent to India, but only in conventional diesel submarine sense. Pakistan has no SSBN's or nuclear attack subs. If it does, it will be news to me.
The day Pakistan or Bangladesh gets S26 subs like Thailand (039 class) is when I will really celebrate. Getting those will mean something.
Two submarines added to Bangladesh armada
Another US writer in the diplomat wrote about the Thailand sub purchase too.
These guys are all harping on the same tune from Singapore.
http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/does-thailand-really-need-submarines/
These whiny 'articles' are all show and no go - no offense. News-pieces propagated by sources friendly to our big neighbor to show Bangladesh made an important purchase. Granted it is a rather unconventional step in the right direction - years in the planning by our Navy. Kudos to the admirals of BN for having some balls - Salam!
I am really confused about your contradictory statements.
If these subs are no threat why bother commenting?
BD can only achieve deterrence capabilities as long as India does not perceive a threat!!! Against whom do you suppose we are seeking deference against. What are subs other than a completely offensive platform.
The subs according to you are obsolete yet you commend BN for getting them.
It is irrelevant what India has, BN does not require parity. BN needs to assure BD sovereignty and these fulfil the aim of area denial. Other navies simply knowing of the existence of BN subs will think twice before venturing into BN territory and should they do so need to come with an whole shebang of ASW platforms. That won't happen unless we are at war which I don't see as realistic.
The point of the article was not the Subs per se but that BD has officially joined the Chinese string of pearls alliance against India/US axis. The status quo has been shattered and there is nothing that US/India can do about it. If this article is part of a psy-war then it's very poor and much much too late, the damage has already been done and no amount of mea culpa will alter the current or future course of events.
I am really confused about your contradictory statements.
If these subs are no threat why bother commenting?
BD can only achieve deterrence capabilities as long as India does not perceive a threat!!! Against whom do you suppose we are seeking deference against. What are subs other than a completely offensive platform.
The subs according to you are obsolete yet you commend BN for getting them.
It is irrelevant what India has, BN does not require parity. BN needs to assure BD sovereignty and these fulfil the aim of area denial. Other navies simply knowing of the existence of BN subs will think twice before venturing into BN territory and should they do so need to come with an whole shebang of ASW platforms. That won't happen unless we are at war which I don't see as realistic.
The point of the article was not the Subs per se but that BD has officially joined the Chinese string of pearls alliance against India/US axis. The status quo has been shattered and there is nothing that US/India can do about it. If this article is part of a psy-war then it's very poor and much much too late, the damage has already been done and no amount of mea culpa will alter the current or future course of events.
Contrary to @Bilal9 theory BD never took India's concern as a legitimate ingredients while equipping itself.
I don't think you guys get what I'm driving at. Please read my opinions carefully....and understand that I can be wrong at times as well. But I don't do needless 'chapabazi'.
- Some of the Bangladeshi posters here didn't like it because I'm not as enthusiastic as some of you regarding the Ming class. And some of you have gone sourpuss on me because I rained on your parade and showed you reality. Well too bad. I reserve the right to have an opinion...
- Like I said - India retired these a decade ago. Let's not pat ourselves on the backs too soon.
- The Mings are not panacea to our undersea combat capability gap. Far from it. In real terms they _are_ obsolete, no question. Even after refurbishment.
- Compared to the diesel subs Pakistan, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and even Singapore is wielding, these submarines really possess no threat. When India is building modern Scorpene diesel subs at Mazagon (Mumbai), Pakistan is building (building, not simply buying) modern diesel Agosta 90B subs and Singapore Navy possesses the ultramodern Swedish Södermanland class subs (modernized Gotland class) you cannot really get all worked up about Mings designed some fifty years ago. Big step yes - but anywhere close to ideal? No.
- The subs were bought at rather inflated supposed 'friendship' prices by the present govt. in cahoots with Navy personnel (even at USD203 million). And this is from senior level Navy sources. If you have access to them - please clarify this yourself. Not many people in the Navy will fess up to this but I am convinced (with my sources).
- I commended the fact we finally got something (although simply for training purposes). Any sub is better than no sub. Don't interpret my commendation as excitement.
- Of course we cannot stop with Mings, we are so behind. BN should focus _now_ on acquisition of a more sophisticated class of submarine specialized in undersea combat for littoral sea as opposed to deep water, as Thailand is now actively pursuing SSK sub types with this capability, and this increasingly looks to be a Gotland class variant.
- Thailand was initially very interested in the S26T (export version of the 039 Yuan class) as was Pakistan. But these are modified Kilo class subs and may not be suitable for littoral warfare in the shallow seas (max depth 279 feet) around the Gulf of Thailand. They are now looking for German U212 and U214 variants (even South Korean Chang Bogo variants that Indonesia bought) or variants made by DCNS or Kockums. I will have to confess that I was gung ho about S26 as well but unlike Pakistan, Thailand seems increasingly to have turned to Gotland class now, following leasing (and success) of Gotland class as 'bogies' in USN sub games off the California coast.
- Vietnam is also looking at adding smaller Scorpene variant SSK's after its recent batch of Kilo purchases. These will be hunter-killer attack subs to hunt other subs in littoral areas, which is different from the role of missile launching Kilos to attack coastal targets which they already have.
- SSKs are better suited than larger subs (like SSNs) for defending merchant shipping in coastal areas. They can lay mines covertly off approaches to enemy naval bases and ports, detect enemy mines, and deliver special-operations teams.
Please read the following, these will keep you guys up-to-date with current thinking on littoral undersea warfare scenario.
- The Bay of Bengal littoral shelf is very similar to the shallow littoral seas around the Gulf of Thailand. We should be concentrating on these areas to defend first for undersea warfare. Hence slightly smaller displacement subs (1000t to 1500t) makes more sense than 2000t plus displacement subs which are more meant for deeper waters. The most ideal sub for this is the Gotland class made in Sweden. They cost around $365 million each (not counting bribes or training).
https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment...RIGHT-SUBMARINE-FOR-LURKING-IN-THE-LITTO.aspx
I'd also ask @Penguin bhai to graciously offer his expert opinion on the Gotland class SSK's and their suitability for littoral warfare.
That was never my theory. I was saying Indian supposed 'concern' was fake and was just an inflated 'show'.
They won't have to worry about any J-10 or Ming purchase Bangladesh makes. For a long time. They have themselves covered. With people much more skilled and educated than we possess in our military. Never underestimate Indians or any other 'enemy'.
None of these defense purchases is a 'magic bullet' or panacea to cure the defense ills for Bangladesh.
One step at a time.
Why are you guys so bent on painting me as a mouthpiece of India if I walk the 'neutral line' or speak practically?
There is opinion and there is 'informed' opinion.
Look at what India's strengths are around Bangladesh and think about countering them - methodically.
India does not need to bat an eyelash if Bangladesh gets J-10's. What Parrikar does is just a show.
Gotland class, like e.g. the slightly larger German Type 212a but also like the smaller German designed Norwegian operated Type 210 Ula class , are not solely for Baltic operations but also for North Sea approaches and even North Atlantic. Unlike e.g the preceeding classes like Type 201/205/206/207, which where well under 1000 tons, like Sweden's earlier Neptun, Hajen, and Draken classes. Their following Sjoormen class was more the size of Gotlands but the subsequent Nacken class went down to the size of Type 210 Ula again. And also the Västergötland class. The Gotland class is more similar in size again to Sjoormen class. The future A26 will be close to 2000 tons. So, it seems that the Swedes, like the Germans, have opted over time to go with bigger subs. This clearly has to do with mission perception.I'd also ask @Penguin bhai to graciously offer his expert opinion on the Gotland class SSK's and their suitability for littoral warfare.
Even if Bangladesh orders Fighters jets in 2017, delivery won't take place before 2020.The whole sky will fall on India once we add few J-10 this year...
Contrary to @Bilal9 theory BD never took India's concern as a legitimate ingredients while equipping itself. Its only the $$$ which were the concern.
You are right in that this does make a 'case' for more defense spending in GOI. Indian right-wing defense war-hawks are trumpeting this as a new 'strategic defense development' in the neighborhood which 'needs to be monitored and/or countered'.Who is the performance for.... the Indian public? The GOI is creating an issue to divert more funds for defense. If that's the case then they have detected a threat that did not exist before.
Indian defense establishment cares little about BD public opinion.Is it for the BD public? Does the Indian defence establishment not have better things to do?
Bangladesh is a export-based economy on a much larger scale for its size of economy - even compared to India. Therefore protection of sea-lanes and defense of 'blue-economy' is crucial. Which makes subs an essential part of naval strategy, all the way to international waters. Any naval 'blockade' has to be effectively dealt with and subs can be an effective deterrent to ad-hoc blockades by unfriendly neighbors. For this Mings aren't going to do - we need more effective modern subs, Chang Bogos or Gotland Class might be much more appropriate which cost 350 Million each. S26T (Yuan class) is not a lot cheaper. I think protecting our sea lanes will be worth it to get a couple more nicer subs...Thailand is getting four or maybe even six just for this reason. Of course their littoral shelf (Gulf of Thailand) is a larger area to patrol and they have to patrol the Andaman Sea as well.You are comparing BD to countries whose economy can afford better equipment, have much larger sea territory to defend or actively in competition with their neighbours. None of this is the case for BD.
Whether 'BD has 'officially joined string of pearls alliance' is still open to speculation. Yes it does seem so according to Indian Media, but they are the only ones making noise about it, in typical fashion. We do know Bangladesh is a major Chinese defense-product client state. However one can argue that price and reliability (absence of strings) are as big a factor than simple client-state relationship.The whole point of the article was BD officially joining string of pearls alliance. This is a change to BD historically being US centric. As the US/India pivot develops so does the Asian china centric alliance to counter it. BD is now part of the latter. The issue is more than a couple of subs.
I don't think you guys get what I'm driving at. Please read my opinions carefully....and understand that I can be wrong at times as well. But I don't do needless 'chapabazi'.
- Some of the Bangladeshi posters here didn't like it because I'm not as enthusiastic as some of you regarding the Ming class. And some of you have gone sourpuss on me because I rained on your parade and showed you reality. Well too bad. I reserve the right to have an opinion...
- Like I said - India retired these a decade ago. Let's not pat ourselves on the backs too soon.
- The Mings are not panacea to our undersea combat capability gap. Far from it. In real terms they _are_ obsolete, no question. Even after refurbishment.
- Compared to the diesel subs Pakistan, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and even Singapore is wielding, these submarines really possess no threat. When India is building modern Scorpene diesel subs at Mazagon (Mumbai), Pakistan is building (building, not simply buying) modern diesel Agosta 90B subs and Singapore Navy possesses the ultramodern Swedish Södermanland class subs (modernized Gotland class) you cannot really get all worked up about Mings designed some fifty years ago. Big step yes - but anywhere close to ideal? No.
- The subs were bought at rather inflated supposed 'friendship' prices by the present govt. in cahoots with Navy personnel (even at USD203 million). And this is from senior level Navy sources. If you have access to them - please clarify this yourself. Not many people in the Navy will fess up to this but I am convinced (with my sources).
- I commended the fact we finally got something (although simply for training purposes). Any sub is better than no sub. Don't interpret my commendation as excitement.
- Of course we cannot stop with Mings, we are so behind. BN should focus _now_ on acquisition of a more sophisticated class of submarine specialized in undersea combat for littoral sea as opposed to deep water, as Thailand is now actively pursuing SSK sub types with this capability, and this increasingly looks to be a Gotland class variant.
- Thailand was initially very interested in the S26T (export version of the 039 Yuan class) as was Pakistan. But these are modified Kilo class subs and may not be suitable for littoral warfare in the shallow seas (max depth 279 feet) around the Gulf of Thailand. They are now looking for German U212 and U214 variants (even South Korean Chang Bogo variants that Indonesia bought) or variants made by DCNS or Kockums. I will have to confess that I was gung ho about S26 as well but unlike Pakistan, Thailand seems increasingly to have turned to Gotland class now, following leasing (and success) of Gotland class as 'bogies' in USN sub games off the California coast.
- Vietnam is also looking at adding smaller Scorpene variant SSK's after its recent batch of Kilo purchases. These will be hunter-killer attack subs to hunt other subs in littoral areas, which is different from the role of missile launching Kilos to attack coastal targets which they already have.
- SSKs are better suited than larger subs (like SSNs) for defending merchant shipping in coastal areas. They can lay mines covertly off approaches to enemy naval bases and ports, detect enemy mines, and deliver special-operations teams.
Please read the following, these will keep you guys up-to-date with current thinking on littoral undersea warfare scenario.
- The Bay of Bengal littoral shelf is very similar to the shallow littoral seas around the Gulf of Thailand. We should be concentrating on these areas to defend first for undersea warfare. Hence slightly smaller displacement subs (1000t to 1500t) makes more sense than 2000t plus displacement subs which are more meant for deeper waters. The most ideal sub for this is the Gotland class made in Sweden. They cost around $365 million each (not counting bribes or training).
https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment...RIGHT-SUBMARINE-FOR-LURKING-IN-THE-LITTO.aspx
I'd also ask @Penguin bhai to graciously offer his expert opinion on the Gotland class SSK's and their suitability for littoral warfare.
That was never my theory. I was saying Indian supposed 'concern' was fake and was just an inflated 'show'.
They won't have to worry about any J-10 or Ming purchase Bangladesh makes. For a long time. They have themselves covered. With people much more skilled and educated than we possess in our military. Never underestimate Indians or any other 'enemy'.
None of these defense purchases is a 'magic bullet' or panacea to cure the defense ills for Bangladesh.
One step at a time.
Why are you guys so bent on painting me as a mouthpiece of India if I walk the 'neutral line' or speak practically?
There is opinion and there is 'informed' opinion.
Look at what India's strengths are around Bangladesh and think about countering them - methodically.
India does not need to bat an eyelash if Bangladesh gets J-10's. What Parrikar does is just a show.
Seems like our detrerrence is already started to show its effect. No wonder who will start BARKING next! As BD-China relationship is taking off the ground backed by multi dimentional engagements, most importantly as our country is taking off, we will not fetch same sort of problems that once Indonesia had with its subs.
which problems?