Adios Amigo
ADVISORS
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Does our Bangladesh capable to start a missile program in future limited within 800-1200 km? Is that will be controversial if we ever start? As we have no intention for making any nuke (but can be collected ready-made nuke from others e.g. N. Korea if we ever need) but we can take only simple conventional missile program. BTW, how effective is missile program to them who does not have nuke program? Now, please, do not say that BD is a poor country. We are not going for race with others, we will not make hundred of missiles but few to test our capability to do pride as many Bangladeshi believe we are not less talent than our neighbors. Don't you want to be an audience of that moment in your life time where we will test our simple (at least) homemade missiles?
I think a simple missile test can make us more enthusiastic to develop in other sectors e.g. social/economical/technological/educational etc. It can boost our economy, dignity, and confident. If BD can pride still for 52 and 71, then why not make some new pride? Would we always feel pride for those only which we (new generation) did not see? So the new generation needs something new to do pride.
Dear brotherbangladesh,
You have addressed Bangladeshi members in your post, and many have intelligently replied, but some have missed some Key and Critical Aspects. Perhaps I should have refrained from replying but because of above mentioned reasons, I could not resist. Therefore Asking for pardon in advance.
For the Purpose of Deep Understanding my post is divided into two parts.
PART-1
For any country to have a credible defense to safe guard its honor and sovereignty, Its very important to set a clear road map and list the priorities right. This very basic criteria holds the key to success, which if otherwise not set and followed carefully can lead to disaster.
Safe guarding Honor and Sovereignty comes at price, which is more then OK, If the Price paid ensures to achieve the set objectives. It is useless and can prove fetal if the Price paid does not achieve its prime objectives, similarly if the price is over paid for the objectives that can be achieved with the help of burning less resources. In short If you screw up here, you get screwed for the unthinkable, So the only way to achieve the optimal balance is Setting your priorities right.
Since you can find a number of examples who pay less then required for defense needs and safeguarding their Sovereignty, often fall victims as a consequence. On the other hand you find less examples, who over burned their national resources for unjustifiable military expenditures and adventures and thus had to fall head first.
One such example is of USSR, I wont go into the details bust certainly they failed to achieve the optimal balance and the result is well clear. Recently America has done the same mistake, although not with regard to their Defense Procurements and Programs but with regards to their misadventure. I am Quoting theses two as they were/are perceived to be the most powerful also known as Superpowers. If they can pay so heavy prices then what about third world counties like us???? A screw up here will ensure that you are domed in all regards, be it political, economical, military, dent in the image or other important aspects wise, it will simply break the neck.
Ballistic and Cruse missile are regarded as Weapons of Mass Destruction. Starting such a program in my View is totally un-justified for Bangladesh, the reasons for which i quote as below:
1) Identify your enemy and the amount of threat you perceive from that enemy. Also Identify the strengths and weaknesses in the relevant field against whom such a program is aimed.
a) If the perceived enemy is week and does not intend to start a similar program, then justifying such an expensive program is the first step towards wrong direction.
b) If the perceived enemy is too strong and way ahead in this Field which can not be caught by, if the competition begins, then it is also a wrong approach to justify a massive budget sucking project like this. A technological gap which is to wide, and cannot be covered up but trying to cover it will draw one into the sinkhole.
c) Only if the perceived enemy is weak and Intends to start such a program, Then it justifiable to by all regards to have a head start.
d) Similarly If the perceived enemy is marginally strong and ahead in the related Field, then the program should be well supported and is by all means justifiable. Not doing so will simply widen the gap to a limit which couldn't be caught by, giving the perceived enemy a clear advantage, and all that was developed with respect to the resources burnt would deserve a place in the garbage bin.
Here I would take a moment and ask you, who does Bangladesh considers its enemy??? Is it India or Is it Burma??? Or is it Both???
In either case as I have given you the Inferences, the result if we apply deductive logic does not justify, the need for such a program.
2) As mentioned early, These weapons are regarded as Weapons Of Mass Destruction. There should be no doubt that they will create a big controversy, a controversy more then enough to handle. Your neighbors situation is well clear to you, no need for me to go into that detail. Lets talk about what the international community has to say bout that??? You know, what has happened to Iraq in the name of WMD, Libya is another example. North Korea and Iran facing bone shivering sanctions, Pakistan faced for more then a decade, just because 9/11 changed the spectrum of world politics helped us out of those sanctions by joining the international community in WoT, otherwise we still would have been sitting in the swing.
a) Is your country capable and willing to take such hard beatings???
b) Is it worth taking the punishment. Means is it going to provide you the necessary capability (I am deliberately not using the word deterrence here) to make your enemy sit quite for a long long time???
c) If not, which is the most likely case in my view, then a part from all the other implications like sanctions, embargo's, Bans etc etc you are asking for a war before its due time. certainly your enemy wont like to let you reach a position where it loses its conventional high grounds. It would like to cripple you before that, and break your backbone i.e strategic infrastructure, if it decides to be too kind not to take you slaves and hoist their flag in your capital.
3) What good is it gonna serve, even if you get through the hells gate??? how much is it gonna cost you in financial terms?? How much you can produce and field them?? These Toys are super expensive, the cost of a medium tech IRBM is too high to help you out conventionally. That is why only Nuclear weapon states have them, they are not primarily meant for conventional wars. They are meant to deliver nuclear warheads in the case of adversity. Iran so far remains an exception in this case, but they are believed to be building the nukes, if not already built. Although the case of Iran is different, their threat perception is different then yours. Look towards the west, i mean the developed world which does not have nuclear capability.
a) Do they have them???
b) If not, Do they intend to have them??
c) If not, what means are they applying to safeguard their sovereignty??
4) How about if the perceived enemy is going to come out with counter tactics, How about them placing a Missile defense shield?? which in India's case is very plausible. Wouldn't it be worth throwing in the bin then ??
a) can you come with a possible answer??
b) If yes, then how long is it gonna take to come up with answer of the enemies counter tactics??
c) This cycle is an ongoing concern, have you the capacity to continue it???
5) You mentioned buying a nuclear weapon from North Korea. Although its naive, to argue on that, but still for the purpose of understanding i would propose.
a) Is it possible to buy a Nuke??
b) Will the International community (for get enemies, when you have International community you don't need enemies) let that happen???
c) Will any country be willing to sell you their nukes??
d) how close your relations are with any nuclear capable states??? How much influence do you have over them to sell you their nukes??
e) Even if they want to sell you their nukes ( highly unlikely, to put it mildly) are they willing to take the wrath of the International Community by taking such a step??
f) How are you going to transport these babies, from their country to your country???
6) lets suppose for purpose of understanding ,Even if that gets cleared by some miracle, then what next. You are now a nuclear capable country. And in the advent of war, you would surely like to use them against an enemy who is conventionally far superior, other wise the whole comment will go to ground.
a) The first question, is being a dare devil you decide to use first strike option, Can you destroy them all??? can you annihilate them??? If not what then??
b) Do you have second strike capability??? if not what then???
c) The missiles as per your say,and for which the whole saga is created, would have a reach of 1200 km per maximum, how do you Intend to hit the part of a country which is 2500 km away??
d) The, off-the Shelf Nukes which you bought, are they compatible with your home grown missiles???
If the Answer to these questions is NO, what then???
Given the Inferences, who is the likely winner of the war???
How are you going to position a loser of such a Nuclear War???
6) Economy as you said should not be considered or discussed, and therefore I will not, But in the light of the above mentioned realities , I would only say Closing your eyes and believing that the monsters are not out there, is mere self deception and nothing more.
7) Regarding the comment you made about talent, I would say its not about talents, No buddy doubts your talents( Bangladeshis are one of the most talented people on earth, from the pilots in PAF to the Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Youns, have proved their worth) But its about being intelligent and making smart decisions, at the right times, that ensures the safeguard of your home land without dragging you through all that fuss.
8) Wishing to be the audience of a prestigious Missile display, smoking out its rockets, I think it would be wise to wish for building a defense structure that ensures your sound sleep in your bedroom free of worries, at a cost that does not bury you and your countrymen to shoulders in heavy Taxes and Loans that enslaves you for a never ending time.
The BIG Question is how??? That I would explain in the next part.
(I would like to leave the rest of your post as my post is getting long.)
(Continue part in part B)
Adios
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