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Why did Sushma Swaraj come to Dhaka?
by M Serajul Islam | Published: 00:05, Oct 29,2017 | Updated: 00:49, Oct 29,2017
Explicitly, Sushma Swaraj visited Dhaka for the meeting of the Joint Consultative Committee with her counterpart AH Mahmud Ali, the Bangladesh foreign minister.
However, there was very little interest in the outcome of that meeting.
Instead, most of the media interest and those of the interested quarters was upon what transpired in the Indian external affairs minister’s meeting with the prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina and the leader of Bangladesh National Party, Khaleda Zia.
Leading to the visit, the media had speculated that the Indian minister was coming to Dhaka because New Delhi was unhappy that Bangladesh was moving deeper into the influence of the Chinese. New Delhi was concerned that China was getting involved in building economic infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, many of which were also strategic in nature.
New Delhi was also unhappy that Bangladesh had joined China’s One Belt One Road initiative, a decision that was announced in New Delhi by the foreign secretary of Bangladesh to the media there.
India is deeply opposed to the OBOR initiative with which China has brought 60 countries and 70 per cent of the world population together. Much to New Delhi’s discomfort, the OBOR land connectivity initiative would run through what India calls the Pakistani occupied Kashmir.
In some ways, the media speculation was the same that had surrounded Sushma Swaraj’s last visit to Dhaka in September 2014. In that visit, she had come to Dhaka primarily to bring Bangladesh out of the Chinese camp to which prime minister Sheikh Hasina had delivered the country.
Sheikh Hasina was worried that the BJP-led Government would not back her government over the January 2014 controversial national election, and faced with international pressure for a new election had visited Beijing.
In her visit, she had promised China a number of strategic projects including the Sonadia deep-sea port.
Sushma Swaraj had successfully brought back Bangladesh to New Delhi’s camp and most of the strategic projects along with the Sonadia deep-sea port were dropped.
That speculation was not borne out from the outcome of the visit of the Indian external affairs minister. If Sushma had indeed come to Dhaka primarily with that intention, it would have brought some good news for the ruling party.
There were three in particular towards which the AL-led government was eagerly and expectantly looking forward.
The first had been pending since September 2011, namely the Teesta Deal for which it had given to India two of its most eagerly sought interests in Bangladesh, — security needs and the land transit.
The other more recent one is indeed India’s unbelievable stand on the Rohingyas.
Finally, the Awami League did not get much encouragement from New Delhi with the country on the cusp of the next general election.
The Teesta Deal did not figure seriously in Sushma Swaraj’s discussions in Dhaka. In fact, even the hitherto given promise that it would be delivered soon was also no longer New Delhi’s narrative. With the worsening of New Delhi-Kolkata relations and with talks of an early election in India, Sushma Swaraj had nothing to offer to Dhaka on the Teesta Deal.
On the Rohingya issue, New Delhi had perplexed Bangladeshis across the political divide. Having sheltered 10 million victims of 1971 Bangladesh Genocide, its denial of the Rohingya Genocide was not just a stand against its historical relations with Bangladesh, but also against something glorious in its own history for few nations had done what India had done for the people of Bangladesh in 1971.
Therefore, there were hopes again across the political divide that Sushma Swaraj would explain to Bangladesh its perplexing decision and give some hope to Bangladesh.
She explained, New Delhi’s position but that did not meet Bangladesh’s expectations.
She agreed with the stand of the government of Bangladesh that all the refugees must return to Myanmar. However, she did not suggest how.
That stand was, in fact, similar to what the Myanmar government had taken publicly, that it would take the refugees back but only those that were their citizens that was like giving by one hand and taking it back with the other. Sushma Swaraj made no mention of the genocide or the ethnic cleansing against the Rakhine. In fact, she was careful not to upset the Myanmar government; she avoided calling the Rohingyas by their name!
That underlined another outcome of Sushma Swaraj’s visit is that it made it evident it was Myanmar in which New Delhi was more interested because of strategic reasons.
Thus Sushma Swaraj spoke of an economic zone in the Rakhine State where India had invested heavily and that Bangladesh would also benefit from it.
Of course, the fact that China was also present in the region not just with lures of investment in Myanmar, but also with an eye towards the fragile Seven Sisters of India.
It was a major reason for New Delhi to keep the Myanmar government happy. In fact, those reasons were important enough for New Delhi to go into denial over the genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Rohingyas and Bangladesh’s present predicament as a consequence.
The third and perhaps the most important outcome of Sushma Swaraj’s visit was mixed, as far as the two mainstream political parties of Bangladesh were cornered. Perhaps, it is a fundamental change in New Delhi’s way of conducting bilateral relations with Bangladesh.
It was good news for the opposition BNP.
In her meeting with Khaleda Zia, the Indian minister stated that New Delhi wanted the next general election of Bangladesh to be participated by all the political parties and free and fair.
She stated separately in her meeting with the media that it was the duty of the government to create the conditions for a free and fair election with the participation of all the political parties.
Those were music to the BNP’s ear.
It was not so to the ruling party. In December 2013, when Bangladesh was preparing for the national election, New Delhi had sent to Dhaka its foreign secretary Sujata Singh with the direction to do the reverse of what Sushma Swaraj did with her just-concluded trip.
She had met HM Ershad on that meeting and told him directly that his party must participate in the election in order to stop the BNP and its allies from coming to power.
Perhaps, the change in stance was due to the fact that in 2014, it was the Congress in power that had a special historical relationship with Awami League. In addition, even if the BJP led government in New Delhi wanted to repeat what the Congress had done for the Awami League during the 2014 election, the political situation in Bangladesh would not favour BNP to participate in election.
In addition, there were no Shahabag or Hefazat movements or the war crime trials that had helped create the conditions for New Delhi to help the Awami League to hold an election similar to that controversial 2014 election.
New Delhi’s support for participatory election was influenced by two other factors.
One was its awareness of the restlessness in Bangladesh among the people to regain their voting rights that were affecting India’s acceptance in Bangladesh.
The other was the volatile situation in Bangladesh over the presence of the one million Rohingya refugees that according to many strategic analysts had the potential to attract the international terrorist groups such as ISIS and Al Qaeda now on the run in their base in the Middle East to the region.
A non-participatory election in Bangladesh with the prospect of violence would aggravate the situation further and turn the region (including Bangladesh) as one analyst, Jasminder Singh of the S Rajaratnam International School in Singapore had suggested, into a ‘hotbed of international terrorism.’
Therefore, Sushma Swaraj perhaps came to Dhaka to start a new era of Bangladesh-India relationship based upon the country to country tie rather than party to party connection.
The existing reality in Bangladesh and in the region influenced the emergence of this new era.
And such a direction would protect New Delhi’s interest, because both the mainstream parties of Bangladesh had given clear evidence that they wanted New Delhi’s friendship.
More importantly, it would also help New Delhi’s regional interests in competing with China where Myanmar had emerged as the new bone of contention.
M Serajul Islam is a former career ambassador.
http://www.newagebd.net/article/27143/why-did-sushma-swaraj-come-to-dhaka
by M Serajul Islam | Published: 00:05, Oct 29,2017 | Updated: 00:49, Oct 29,2017
Explicitly, Sushma Swaraj visited Dhaka for the meeting of the Joint Consultative Committee with her counterpart AH Mahmud Ali, the Bangladesh foreign minister.
However, there was very little interest in the outcome of that meeting.
Instead, most of the media interest and those of the interested quarters was upon what transpired in the Indian external affairs minister’s meeting with the prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina and the leader of Bangladesh National Party, Khaleda Zia.
Leading to the visit, the media had speculated that the Indian minister was coming to Dhaka because New Delhi was unhappy that Bangladesh was moving deeper into the influence of the Chinese. New Delhi was concerned that China was getting involved in building economic infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, many of which were also strategic in nature.
New Delhi was also unhappy that Bangladesh had joined China’s One Belt One Road initiative, a decision that was announced in New Delhi by the foreign secretary of Bangladesh to the media there.
India is deeply opposed to the OBOR initiative with which China has brought 60 countries and 70 per cent of the world population together. Much to New Delhi’s discomfort, the OBOR land connectivity initiative would run through what India calls the Pakistani occupied Kashmir.
In some ways, the media speculation was the same that had surrounded Sushma Swaraj’s last visit to Dhaka in September 2014. In that visit, she had come to Dhaka primarily to bring Bangladesh out of the Chinese camp to which prime minister Sheikh Hasina had delivered the country.
Sheikh Hasina was worried that the BJP-led Government would not back her government over the January 2014 controversial national election, and faced with international pressure for a new election had visited Beijing.
In her visit, she had promised China a number of strategic projects including the Sonadia deep-sea port.
Sushma Swaraj had successfully brought back Bangladesh to New Delhi’s camp and most of the strategic projects along with the Sonadia deep-sea port were dropped.
That speculation was not borne out from the outcome of the visit of the Indian external affairs minister. If Sushma had indeed come to Dhaka primarily with that intention, it would have brought some good news for the ruling party.
There were three in particular towards which the AL-led government was eagerly and expectantly looking forward.
The first had been pending since September 2011, namely the Teesta Deal for which it had given to India two of its most eagerly sought interests in Bangladesh, — security needs and the land transit.
The other more recent one is indeed India’s unbelievable stand on the Rohingyas.
Finally, the Awami League did not get much encouragement from New Delhi with the country on the cusp of the next general election.
The Teesta Deal did not figure seriously in Sushma Swaraj’s discussions in Dhaka. In fact, even the hitherto given promise that it would be delivered soon was also no longer New Delhi’s narrative. With the worsening of New Delhi-Kolkata relations and with talks of an early election in India, Sushma Swaraj had nothing to offer to Dhaka on the Teesta Deal.
On the Rohingya issue, New Delhi had perplexed Bangladeshis across the political divide. Having sheltered 10 million victims of 1971 Bangladesh Genocide, its denial of the Rohingya Genocide was not just a stand against its historical relations with Bangladesh, but also against something glorious in its own history for few nations had done what India had done for the people of Bangladesh in 1971.
Therefore, there were hopes again across the political divide that Sushma Swaraj would explain to Bangladesh its perplexing decision and give some hope to Bangladesh.
She explained, New Delhi’s position but that did not meet Bangladesh’s expectations.
She agreed with the stand of the government of Bangladesh that all the refugees must return to Myanmar. However, she did not suggest how.
That stand was, in fact, similar to what the Myanmar government had taken publicly, that it would take the refugees back but only those that were their citizens that was like giving by one hand and taking it back with the other. Sushma Swaraj made no mention of the genocide or the ethnic cleansing against the Rakhine. In fact, she was careful not to upset the Myanmar government; she avoided calling the Rohingyas by their name!
That underlined another outcome of Sushma Swaraj’s visit is that it made it evident it was Myanmar in which New Delhi was more interested because of strategic reasons.
Thus Sushma Swaraj spoke of an economic zone in the Rakhine State where India had invested heavily and that Bangladesh would also benefit from it.
Of course, the fact that China was also present in the region not just with lures of investment in Myanmar, but also with an eye towards the fragile Seven Sisters of India.
It was a major reason for New Delhi to keep the Myanmar government happy. In fact, those reasons were important enough for New Delhi to go into denial over the genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Rohingyas and Bangladesh’s present predicament as a consequence.
The third and perhaps the most important outcome of Sushma Swaraj’s visit was mixed, as far as the two mainstream political parties of Bangladesh were cornered. Perhaps, it is a fundamental change in New Delhi’s way of conducting bilateral relations with Bangladesh.
It was good news for the opposition BNP.
In her meeting with Khaleda Zia, the Indian minister stated that New Delhi wanted the next general election of Bangladesh to be participated by all the political parties and free and fair.
She stated separately in her meeting with the media that it was the duty of the government to create the conditions for a free and fair election with the participation of all the political parties.
Those were music to the BNP’s ear.
It was not so to the ruling party. In December 2013, when Bangladesh was preparing for the national election, New Delhi had sent to Dhaka its foreign secretary Sujata Singh with the direction to do the reverse of what Sushma Swaraj did with her just-concluded trip.
She had met HM Ershad on that meeting and told him directly that his party must participate in the election in order to stop the BNP and its allies from coming to power.
Perhaps, the change in stance was due to the fact that in 2014, it was the Congress in power that had a special historical relationship with Awami League. In addition, even if the BJP led government in New Delhi wanted to repeat what the Congress had done for the Awami League during the 2014 election, the political situation in Bangladesh would not favour BNP to participate in election.
In addition, there were no Shahabag or Hefazat movements or the war crime trials that had helped create the conditions for New Delhi to help the Awami League to hold an election similar to that controversial 2014 election.
New Delhi’s support for participatory election was influenced by two other factors.
One was its awareness of the restlessness in Bangladesh among the people to regain their voting rights that were affecting India’s acceptance in Bangladesh.
The other was the volatile situation in Bangladesh over the presence of the one million Rohingya refugees that according to many strategic analysts had the potential to attract the international terrorist groups such as ISIS and Al Qaeda now on the run in their base in the Middle East to the region.
A non-participatory election in Bangladesh with the prospect of violence would aggravate the situation further and turn the region (including Bangladesh) as one analyst, Jasminder Singh of the S Rajaratnam International School in Singapore had suggested, into a ‘hotbed of international terrorism.’
Therefore, Sushma Swaraj perhaps came to Dhaka to start a new era of Bangladesh-India relationship based upon the country to country tie rather than party to party connection.
The existing reality in Bangladesh and in the region influenced the emergence of this new era.
And such a direction would protect New Delhi’s interest, because both the mainstream parties of Bangladesh had given clear evidence that they wanted New Delhi’s friendship.
More importantly, it would also help New Delhi’s regional interests in competing with China where Myanmar had emerged as the new bone of contention.
M Serajul Islam is a former career ambassador.
http://www.newagebd.net/article/27143/why-did-sushma-swaraj-come-to-dhaka