At current rates, Bangladesh could top India's per capita income by 2020

[Nilgiri]

All these are excuses. Back in 1970s, Bangladesh's per capita income was quite higher than that of India. It dipped later on though. Even India faced lots of instabilities in between....from wars to emergency in 70s, rise of terrorism to assasinatioas of our leaders, despite it did good.

Honestly the economic measurements in developing countries esp were pretty lousy before the 80s/90s (ending of cold war, ICP program formation).

There was no PPP concept for example back then....everything was largely inherited from brettonwoods system which basically correlated to how much overvalue/undervalue the govt of country set w.r.t pound sterling/USD (gold). This on top of the limited surveying (and using theory more suited to developed countries) and even larger % of black/underground/non-formal economy back then. Its of limited utility esp if a country did not trade much per capita with what could be converted to gold/USD on forex market (most of Asia, Africa and Latin America except for Asian tigers and oil exporters etc...basically 90% of developing world were affected by this incl India and China).

Also, only the obsolete technologies are for sale, and by buying these will not help BD to develop. BD will certainly buy factories/machines, but it will also have to develop most technologies by itself as India is doing. Failing to develop its own technology, BD will remain almost as poor as it is now, a 3rd rate country.

Bangladesh needs much better and focused govt and political system. Right now it is costing too much, money that could be used to invest in basic RnD and buffers to import the 1st tier know-how and capital to then proceed with further tiers. What is stopping BD from dropping excise duties on car components from the crazy 20, 30 even 50+% excise (and tariffs on top of that) to near zero...simply to start the process of providing jobs and experience there?....Answer: the govt and BD people giving their govt this freehand to decide they are better at managing X amount of money compared to a private corporation.

Well you need to learn some serious lessons on economy if you wish to discuss it. You even lack knowledge about basic terms like NNI or GNI. Go learn and then compare accordingly. @Nilgiri can be a good guy to teach you some economy lessons.

It was not all in vain for me this topic. I have now stumbled across just how bad the effective inflation is in BD w.r.t world (esp given BD does not indulge in undervaluing of its currency to extent East Asian exporters do with large CA surplus derived forex stocks etc).

Their constant/current dollar GDP ratio is now apparently 76% (in 2016).

For India its around 109%. For Pakistan its around 82% (again affected by lot of inflation, given negligible forex in equation). For China around 85% (thanks to govt undervaluing its currency mostly). Vietnam around 80% (similar reason to China). For Indonesia around 111%. Thailand around 100%.

@madokafc

and our poor BD is more like 25 years behind Bulgaria.

In GDP per capita, 25 years ago....Bulgaria had about 3 times what BD has now. You are probably around 45+ years behind Bulgaria....more to do with Bulgaria growing ok under phase 1 of communism...but then stagnating hard for a good 3 decades or so.

Bulgaria would be like 25 years behind South Korea

35 years ago, Bulgaria and South Korea had roughly the same GDP per capita (3.5k per capita in 2010 dollars), South Korea just grew a lot faster since...so it works out to about 25 years behind now for Bulgaria yeah....because in 10 years (1980 - 1990) south korea grew its per capita what it has taken Bulgaria 35 years now.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=BD-IN-BG-KR

 

[Bilal9]

Guys it is pointless discussing whose cities look better or worse and this subject is OT anyway. In every city there are more posh areas and bad areas such as slums. No place in the subcontinent is immune to this. Bangladesh also has nice looking areas (despite high cost to build). They will not look like Pakistan or India because the terrain and Geography is altogether different. I don't want this to devolve into an ugly fight posting each other's slum areas. No point in going there....

As GDP and standard of living grows, all countries in the subcontinent will develop newer and nicer areas and will start to look like Singapore.

Dhanmandi - Dhaka's first suburban area...

Banani/Gulshan - Dhaka's second suburban area

Nirjhor - Dhaka's fourth or fifth suburban area

Old Airport Road, Dhaka at Tejgaon

Banani Flyover

Karwan Bazaar area, midtown Dhaka

 

[Nike]

Honestly the economic measurements in developing countries esp were pretty lousy before the 80s/90s (ending of cold war, ICP program formation).

There was no PPP concept for example back then....everything was largely inherited from brettonwoods system which basically correlated to how much overvalue/undervalue the govt of country set w.r.t pound sterling/USD (gold). This on top of the limited surveying (and using theory more suited to developed countries) and even larger % of black/underground/non-formal economy back then. Its of limited utility esp if a country did not trade much per capita with what could be converted to gold/USD on forex market (most of Asia, Africa and Latin America except for Asian tigers and oil exporters etc...basically 90% of developing world were affected by this incl India and China).



Bangladesh needs much better and focused govt and political system. Right now it is costing too much, money that could be used to invest in basic RnD and buffers to import the 1st tier know-how and capital to then proceed with further tiers. What is stopping BD from dropping excise duties on car components from the crazy 20, 30 even 50+% excise (and tariffs on top of that) to near zero...simply to start the process of providing jobs and experience there?....Answer: the govt and BD people giving their govt this freehand to decide they are better at managing X amount of money compared to a private corporation.



It was not all in vain for me this topic. I have now stumbled across just how bad the effective inflation is in BD w.r.t world (esp given BD does not indulge in undervaluing of its currency to extent East Asian exporters do with large CA surplus derived forex stocks etc).

Their constant/current dollar GDP ratio is now apparently 76% (in 2016).

For India its around 109%. For Pakistan its around 82% (again affected by lot of inflation, given negligible forex in equation). For China around 85% (thanks to govt undervaluing its currency mostly). Vietnam around 80% (similar reason to China). For Indonesia around 111%. Thailand around 100%.

@madokafc



In GDP per capita, 25 years ago....Bulgaria had about 3 times what BD has now. You are probably around 45+ years behind Bulgaria....more to do with Bulgaria growing ok under phase 1 of communism...but then stagnating hard for a good 3 decades or so.



35 years ago, Bulgaria and South Korea had roughly the same GDP per capita (3.5k per capita in 2010 dollars), South Korea just grew a lot faster since...so it works out to about 25 years behind now for Bulgaria yeah....because in 10 years (1980 - 1990) south korea grew its per capita what it has taken Bulgaria 35 years now.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=BD-IN-BG-KR

Indonesia and Thailand learned from the very hard lesson during East Asia Economic crisis in 1998. Having strong currency and very high GDP growth is not helping you much if you maintain them with exessive cost (remember both countries had a very high GDP growth back then at 8-9 percent per year for decade). What most important is how much strong your economic fundamental it is, Like keeping inflation at healthy level, trust of investor, FDI level, solid central Bank regulation, and etc.

 

[Bilal9]

Everyone has an opinion....here's mine.
Is it possible? Yes.
Is it likely? Nope.
Well there is always this hope of India screwing up getting into a war with China or Pak.


Who are you kidding Bilal bhai?

I was in Bulgaria two days ago.....and I kinda feel that Bulgaria would be like 25 years behind South Korea(assuming it is South Korea you are talking about)...and our poor BD is more like 25 years behind Bulgaria.

I really like your optimism and contributions in many threads....but this kind of post is more like delusion......BD is not just 25 years behind South Korea....the gap is much wider...and an average person in BD cannot afford 200tk tea or coffee. Simply bragging doesn't make anything better off.....

Without going into a lot of detail, let me just say this, some of you guys that are 'doubting thomases' are not fully aware about the scale of industrialization taking place in Bangladesh and its resultant effects. I am not a AL lackey and I don't say this to prop up khalamma. She wasn't the driver of all that is happening in Bangladesh, the private sector was. This will still be unequal development (just like what has happened in India). Wait a couple of years when all the infra stuff gets wrapped up and see where things go as far as GDP...

Just because some people can't enjoy Tk.200 tea because of their kanjoosi habits doesn't mean everyone in Bangladesh has to. Why would I drink 3 rupees tea out of lead-laced earthenware cups if I can afford better?

Once people get educated and they are given good jobs and a means to earn income in myriad ways there is no limit in what they can do. Call me an optimist - but I see Bangladesh (in fact all subcontinental countries) go up in growth. The stars are fully aligned and the factors/conditions are just right with entire East Asia/China influencing the events.

 

[Khan_21]

If it makes your butt-hurt less severe then believe what you like.

Well, it's usually the Bengali's that are opening threads since decades of how they are surpassing India and Pakistan. Tells you who is butthurt. For years you have been telling how us how airports, highways and metros are being built in BD when there is nothing to show for.

 

[Nilgiri]

Just because some people can't enjoy Tk.200 tea because of their kanjoosi habits doesn't mean everyone in Bangladesh has to. Why would I drink 3 rupees tea out of lead-laced earthenware cups if I can afford better?

This line again? @bluesky

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-...er-than-pakistans.536089/page-9#post-10141603

Really how much non-kanjoosi tea do your households (vast majority without regular internet or time to counter your chotolok twink princess opinion) consume for this to happen?:

 

[UKBengali]

Well, it's usually the Bengali's that are opening threads since decades of how they are surpassing India and Pakistan. Tells you who is butthurt. For years you have been telling how us how airports, highways and metros are being built in BD when there is nothing to show for.

Let us see:

Roads-

1. Dhaka-Chittagong road - already expanded to 4-lane highway
2. Dhaka - Meymensigh road - already expanded to 4-lane highway
3. Dhaka - Tangail road - work nearly complete to expand to 4-lane highway

Power Station-

1. Payra 1.32 GW Coal Power Station - most of the work complete and due to open next year
2. Roopur Nuclear Power Station - work already started
3. Matarbari 1.2 GW Coal Power Station - work already started

Bridges-

1. Padma Bridge - majority of work completed already

Railways-

1. Padma Bridge Railway(link Dhaka with SW BD) - China approved loan and work will start very soon.

Metro Rail

1. First line of Dhaka Metro Rail is being built


See, BD has it's very own "CPEC" in operation.

 

[Nilgiri]

Well, it's usually the Bengali's that are opening threads since decades of how they are surpassing India and Pakistan. Tells you who is butthurt. For years you have been telling how us how airports, highways and metros are being built in BD when there is nothing to show for.

Don't forget the miracle export projections of TVs, fridges, electronics, pharmaceuticals, biotech....billions and billions of it was supposed to happen by now (projected by the same dreamwork posters parroting here back in 2015). Next to zilch actually happened....and now all that nonsense is suddenly forgotten about....or worse, recycled to feed into the whatever narratives in vogue now.

Then they call the realists/pragmatists as "doubting thomases". Funny. Reminds me of how the same lot keep selling socialism too, its all a matter of free ongoing trust (no matter how much its failed)...it just has to be applied correctly, just give them the opportunity again to prove it right, you'll see!

 

[bluesky]

Don't forget the miracle export projections of TVs, fridges, electronics, pharmaceuticals, biotech....billions and billions of it was supposed to happen by now (projected by the same dream work posters parroting here back in 2015). Next to zilch actually happened....and now all that nonsense is suddenly forgotten about....or worse, recycled to feed into the whatever narratives in vogue now.

Then they call the realists/pragmatists as "doubting thomases". Funny. Reminds me of how the same lot keep selling socialism too, its all a matter of free ongoing trust (no matter how much its failed)...it just has to be applied correctly, just give them the opportunity again to prove it right, you'll see!

Bold part: Please wait until it is 3015 to get delivery of all those technology products. Even then it will not be possible though some PDF members would then be sipping Tk.2,000/- cup of tea. Some one shouted at me a few months ago, "We can do same as Japanese, because we are also born out of the same mothers' wombs". Another threatened recently by saying something like this, "The way Japanese economy is shrinking, there is no doubt BD will overtake Japan within a few decades".

Now, when I am wondering when all the people of BD will be living in houses with swimming pool, one guy said BD does not have to develop its own technology, it will import all the technologies. So, how much will it cost to import the technology? By my estimate, it is at least $3,000 billion. BD is very rich, no doubt.

In my eyes only India is developing in South Asia with many technology inputs. It is still poor, but is developing. A day will certainly usher in when it will be a little rich, but still developing. Another day will come when it will become a moderate consumer society. I presume, it will be within this century, although our PDF intelligentsia talks of a developed BD by 2041.

 

[Nilgiri]

So, how much will it cost to import the technology? By my estimate, it is at least $3,000 billion.

That is like 10 full year outputs of Bangladesh. I think it can be done with better administration (i.e less corruption etc) and about 1 - 2 full year output (say 500 billion USD) spread over 15 - 20 years or so. I am modelling using China (1990) somewhat here (their average annualised FDI level till mid 2000s). But BD govt must be improved first and foremost (kick them out of everything except the very minimum requirement for govt to be there) and BD economic expansion should not be so G2G loan dependent (because that again involves govt/bureaucrats too much).

The problem with things like sewing needles etc is just the massive stockpile China has now produced sitting in warehouses...that they will sell at massive discount if need be to undercut too. This is why its imperative that BD focuses in on creating 5 large business groups etc....that can research what BD population can provide in human capital and what gaps there are in the market inside BD and also worldwide that BD can innovate and capture some niches...both in legacy industry and new industry. But it must be sound pragmatism focus...i.e if we cannot compete on sewing needles, why not see if there are other components for newer machines today etc that are not so stockpiled in China and price sensitive but can be made relative easily still etc. But it needs venture capital and business culture to be gestated and grown.

Walton model (import 90% value OEM and assembly locally with copy and paste structure) will not create that...you need the FDI and precise govt apparatus to handle/direct/gestate/grow the FDI....because with that FDI comes the knowhow (which has far more worth than the direct Taka value)....knowledge is something that can never be taken away once you get it (unlike money which is sensitive to good and bad govt etc). BD like any other country has to become a knowledge driven economy period...no amount of bandaid and brochure treatment by the projection crowd here will drive that.

 

[Species]

That's the problem with us. Surpassing India's fudged GDP per capita wouldn't be any huge deal, it's just a shithole. We need to aim higher and shouldn't have such low benchmarks.

 

[Hasan89]

Alhamdulilah. Marhabah..!


Target and inspiration to follow in development should be China, Japan, S.Korea.

 

[Bilal9]

In my eyes only India is developing in South Asia with many technology inputs. It is still poor, but is developing. A day will certainly usher in when it will be a little rich, but still developing. Another day will come when it will become a moderate consumer society. I presume, it will be within this century, although our PDF intelligentsia talks of a developed BD by 2041

Bhai @bluesky - I am disappointed. You are entitled to your own opinion but your patriotism toward the very land (Bangladesh) which (supposedly, according to your flag) gave birth to you and your ancestors is in question.

Your patriotism is now circumspect because you sing the praises of a country called India which most Bangladeshis consider step-motherly and which is consistently working to halt and disrupt our progress to keep us subjugated in every sphere. While you deride achievements in the country of your birth at every opportunity. Seems like you are fine with Bangladesh being a vassal state and captive economy for India.

With all due respect, please change your flag from Bangladesh to an Indian flag, if your love for India exceeds that of Bangladesh (like your comments above show). The level of fervent propaganda for Indian 'achievements' by Chaiwala bhakts is exceeded only by that of fifth-columnist India-sycophants in Bangladesh. Non-Muslims can be Bangladeshi Patriots too - you know.

If you choose not to be one - my condolences.

 

[Nilgiri]

@Desert Fox

A lot of these people are so obsessed with Pakistan (that you brought up in another thread), and similarly for India etc....simply because they are extremely illiterate...at a basic functional level. Take this guy for example, (the one that starts dozens of repetitive threads each week)....he literally cannot do basic reading:

Idiot the figure that was quoted for India was GNI not NNI.

Response (I even underlined for him):

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/at-c...ta-income-by-2020.560772/page-5#post-10527798

Then literally he cannot read that (or incapable to digest basic English) and copy pastes his hissy fit BD style, and three further morons thank him lol: @kaykay @Gibbs @Ryuzaki @madokafc

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/at-c...ta-income-by-2020.560772/page-6#post-10528819

Just complete repeating, nothing went in or out the illiterate hot air cranial space.

if it is NNI what is the GNI of India?

Let us see if arrow pointing (from the source posted already that he is again too illiterate to click and read) might help (place your bets ):

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175399

So its no surprise they park their illiterate retarded behinds on this forum and stay put lol....I guess when you are illiterate to this level and just copy and repeat the same thing...why would you even realise an argument is lost and you should leave (if you keep losing them and your feelz are hurt) or concede and learn if you want to stay? Expecting too much of them basically.

They have basic reading comprehension problems....forget math and logic (which would need the base to be somewhat sound first)

Thus its not surprising that they are unable to figure out why I point out the importance of inflation when comparing incomes, when they frigging open up the issue in the first place by their stupidity (comparing incomes in 1960, 1980, 1990 and whichever years directly...like only a complete economics illiterate would):

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/at-c...ta-income-by-2020.560772/page-4#post-10527573

and then they throw a hissy fit because they are unable to understand why this is a problem, and complain of "we are not talking of inflation" and "stop changing subject" when THEY LITERALLY BROUGHT IT UP (but unable to realise that) comparing over decades of income patterns...lol.

It seems BD people here are literally fine with earning some X income in USD if its close to or surpasses some other country (that they have deep rooted inferiority complex with)....even if that income literally can only buy them a grain of rice on the ground because of their inflation and atrocious domestic purchasing power.

This is how desperate they are, no wonder they buy into every other fake number their govt throws at them, past and present. Complete most illiterate sheeple country in the world by far. No wonder they start all these topics with such frequency (often on the same exact subject: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bangladesh-could-well-march-past-india-on-the-growth-path.561013/),..... lose badly and then cry and whine and/or use sour grapes complex....or whatever else can pacify their butthurt feelz.

 

[mb444]

Indonesia and Thailand learned from the very hard lesson during East Asia Economic crisis in 1998. Having strong currency and very high GDP growth is not helping you much if you maintain them with exessive cost (remember both countries had a very high GDP growth back then at 8-9 percent per year for decade). What most important is how much strong your economic fundamental it is, Like keeping inflation at healthy level, trust of investor, FDI level, solid central Bank regulation, and etc.

You are correct and in those fundamental BD is in a good position in that our borrowing is very low and the stock market is not open unlike the East Asian countries a decade ago. You guys were stung by speculators. The one worrying problem for BD is the precarious position of many of the private banks.