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At current rates, Bangladesh could top India's per capita income by 2020

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After trailing its big neighbour for four decades, Bangladesh has gone ahead of India in economic growth and on social development indicators.

In the three years ending 2016, Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (at current prices) in dollar terms grew at a compounded annual rate (CAGR) of 12.9 per cent, more than twice India's 5.6 per cent. Over the same period, Pakistan grew faster than India too, at a CAGR of 8.6 per cent, driven by a surge in investment and export. The Chinese economy expanded at an annualised 5.2 per cent.

As a result, per capita income (in dollar terms) in Bangladesh is now growing at nearly thrice the pace of income growth in India. At $1,355 in 2016, Bangladesh’s per capita income was up 40 per cent in three years against 14 per cent growth in India and 21 per cent growth in Pakistan. At this rate, Bangladesh’s per capita income would top India’s by the year 2020. Currently, a typical Indian has 25 per cent higher
income than her eastern neighbour; in 2011, Indians earned 87 per cent more.

India was the top performing economy in South Asia for the 40 years between 1970 and 2010. Annualised GDP growth of 8.7 per cent in dollar terms at current prices against Bangladesh's 7.6 per cent and Pakistan's 6.7 per cent. (See the adjoining charts)


1527444016-99.jpg


Bangladesh is also ahead of India in the human or social development indicators of infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth. A newborn in Bangladesh is more likely to see her fifth birthday than her Indian or Pakistani counterpart. She is also likely to live longer in Bangladesh (72.5 years) than India (68.6 years) and Pakistan (66.5 years).

Bangladesh’s economic success lies in its ability to plug itself into the gap created by the slowdown in the Chinese export engine as policymakers in Beijing shift their focus to pushing domestic demand and investment and away from exports. Total exports from China declined to $2.2 trillion in 2016 from a record high of $2.35 trillion three years ago, creating space for others in the global market for labour intensive consumer goods.

India missed this bus as evidenced by a contraction in exports during the period. Instead the country’s growth is being largely driven by consumption even as savings, investment and exports reduce. India's total exports of goods & services declined to $433 billion in 2016 from record high of $488 billion during 2013 calendar year.

The contrast shows in the Bangladesh's headline statistics. In last three years, the country’s exports of goods & services grew at a CAGR of 7 per cent in dollar terms against 3.9 per cent annualised contraction in India's export during the period. In the same period, capital formation or investment in Bangladesh grew at a CAGR of 14.5 per cent against investment stagnation in India.

Economic growth in Pakistan is largely driven by capital formation and consumption demand financed by a surge in foreign investments mostly from China as the latter invests close to $60 billion in upgrading Pakistan’s power and transport infrastructure.

http://www.business-standard.com/ar...al-development-indicators-118052700710_1.html
 
Why are you taking that slip of tongue so seriously? If any person say 1000 sentences, it is very possible that 1 or 2 sentence will sound like improbable. It happens for every person. It does not mean you have grill them for that.


Bangladesh's 2018 per capita income in 2011 constant ppp dollar is 4,061 dollar
For South Korea, 1993 per capita ppp in 2011 constant dollar=14,126 dollar(3.5 times higher than current BD)
In 1980=5,084 dollar(25% higher than current Bangladesh)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=48&pr.y=12&sy=1980&ey=2018&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=513,542&s=NGDPRPPPPC&grp=0&a=

So most probably around in 1978, South Korean prosperity was current level of Bangladesh. So instead of 25 years, @Bilal9 should have said 40 years. Actually @Bilal9 over-estimated the recent economic progress of South Korea, that's why he said 25 years.But in reality south Korea progressed some years earlier than that. It is actually a good impression for South Korea on part of @Bilal9 . I do not know why are you ridiculing him for that as if he has said anything bad about South Korea.

Thanks for the rebuttal bhai. I was speaking in general terms and have traveled on business all over East Asia and have seen their pattern of development and chatted extensively with my business colleagues in those countries.

It is my firm belief that Bangladesh is following the East Asian pattern of development to a 'tee'. The reason is that a lot of these labor-intensive low-value-addition industries (garments, shoes, leather goods, toys, light engg. and kitchen products at the 1st phase of development) are no longer subsidized in East Asia (except Vietnam and Indonesia). Bangladesh is in this phase now.

They (China, Korea, Taiwan) have moved on to focus on producing much higher value items (2nd phase products) such as machined metallic items, general automotive, electronics and in some cases high-tech audio/video/networking electronics products just like the Japanese twenty years ago. The govt. subsidies in China now focuses on those industries.

Japan itself has moved on to very niche items in certain well-established extremely specialized product segments (3rd phase) where their expensive value addition (high-precision critical products with close micro tolerances) can make sense. They compete with German Mittelstand firms and US firms for these segments.


I believe this is an off topic post. Can this be removed?
 
After trailing its big neighbour for four decades, Bangladesh has gone ahead of India in economic growth and on social development indicators.

In the three years ending 2016, Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (at current prices) in dollar terms grew at a compounded annual rate (CAGR) of 12.9 per cent, more than twice India's 5.6 per cent. Over the same period, Pakistan grew faster than India too, at a CAGR of 8.6 per cent, driven by a surge in investment and export. The Chinese economy expanded at an annualised 5.2 per cent.

As a result, per capita income (in dollar terms) in Bangladesh is now growing at nearly thrice the pace of income growth in India. At $1,355 in 2016, Bangladesh’s per capita income was up 40 per cent in three years against 14 per cent growth in India and 21 per cent growth in Pakistan. At this rate, Bangladesh’s per capita income would top India’s by the year 2020. Currently, a typical Indian has 25 per cent higher
income than her eastern neighbour; in 2011, Indians earned 87 per cent more.

India was the top performing economy in South Asia for the 40 years between 1970 and 2010. Annualised GDP growth of 8.7 per cent in dollar terms at current prices against Bangladesh's 7.6 per cent and Pakistan's 6.7 per cent. (See the adjoining charts)


1527444016-99.jpg


Bangladesh is also ahead of India in the human or social development indicators of infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth. A newborn in Bangladesh is more likely to see her fifth birthday than her Indian or Pakistani counterpart. She is also likely to live longer in Bangladesh (72.5 years) than India (68.6 years) and Pakistan (66.5 years).

Bangladesh’s economic success lies in its ability to plug itself into the gap created by the slowdown in the Chinese export engine as policymakers in Beijing shift their focus to pushing domestic demand and investment and away from exports. Total exports from China declined to $2.2 trillion in 2016 from a record high of $2.35 trillion three years ago, creating space for others in the global market for labour intensive consumer goods.

India missed this bus as evidenced by a contraction in exports during the period. Instead the country’s growth is being largely driven by consumption even as savings, investment and exports reduce. India's total exports of goods & services declined to $433 billion in 2016 from record high of $488 billion during 2013 calendar year.

The contrast shows in the Bangladesh's headline statistics. In last three years, the country’s exports of goods & services grew at a CAGR of 7 per cent in dollar terms against 3.9 per cent annualised contraction in India's export during the period. In the same period, capital formation or investment in Bangladesh grew at a CAGR of 14.5 per cent against investment stagnation in India.

Economic growth in Pakistan is largely driven by capital formation and consumption demand financed by a surge in foreign investments mostly from China as the latter invests close to $60 billion in upgrading Pakistan’s power and transport infrastructure.

http://www.business-standard.com/ar...al-development-indicators-118052700710_1.html

You have achieved all this with least consumption of electricity per capita. Bangladesh accounts for 310 Kwh. Pakistan is 477kwh and India is 1227 kwh
 
Everyone has an opinion....here's mine.
Is it possible? Yes.
Is it likely? Nope.
Well there is always this hope of India screwing up getting into a war with China or Pak.
Korea was like Bangladesh twenty five years ago.

Who are you kidding Bilal bhai?

I was in Bulgaria two days ago.....and I kinda feel that Bulgaria would be like 25 years behind South Korea(assuming it is South Korea you are talking about)...and our poor BD is more like 25 years behind Bulgaria.

I really like your optimism and contributions in many threads....but this kind of post is more like delusion......BD is not just 25 years behind South Korea....the gap is much wider...and an average person in BD cannot afford 200tk tea or coffee. Simply bragging doesn't make anything better off.....
 
Well you need to learn some serious lessons on economy if you wish to discuss it. You even lack knowledge about basic terms like NNI or GNI. Go learn and then compare accordingly. @Nilgiri can be a good guy to teach you some economy lessons.

Otherwise youll just flaunt your ignorance and others can only laugh on that.


Well you posted this article.
https://www.livemint.com/Politics/K...ta-income-growth-may-slow-83-to-Rs111782.html
Now only if you would have thoroughly read it well( especially 2nd para), even a dumb guy would understand that they are talking about ''per capita net national income"....Should I quote it from article now? Or that will be suffice?

I asked that Tamil idiot a very simple question if it is NNI what is the GNI of India? This article of the thread clearly stated that Bangladesh is on it's way to overtake India's GNI by 2020. Even if we go by the article Bangladesh's GNI will be higher then India in 2 years. Now when exposed on this ground the moron started comparing with PPP, inflation and started jumping like a monkey. This article has spoken about GNI not anything else.

For you info Bangladesh measure it's GDP based on 2005 base year and India 2011-12 base year. If Bangladesh updates it's base year it will update GDP as well and can see a increase of 15-20%. Pakistan is doing the same as well and some article I read said it can see a 25% rise. So in nominal per capita term as well Bangladesh will catch up with India.
 
All these are excuses. Back in 1970s, Bangladesh's per capita income was quite higher than that of India. It dipped later on though. Even India faced lots of instabilities in between....from wars to emergency in 70s, rise of terrorism to assasinatioas of our leaders, despite it did good.


Dummy.:rofl:

So BD suffered it's 2nd colonisation(1947-1971) and India still could not beat it in the 1970s!

India needs to start taking responsibility for itself from 1947, as after that date it was able to independently chart it's own course.
 
One look at Bangladeshi's cities and then at Indian/PK cities will tell you the whole story of who is ahead in per capita. BD's cities are ugly and horrendous with little to no infrastructure.
 
One look at Bangladeshi's cities and then at Indian/PK cities will tell you the whole story of who is ahead in per capita. BD's cities are ugly and horrendous with little to no infrastructure.

Do you understand what "accumulated wealth" is?

Can I ask how good were you at school btw?
 
Do you understand what "accumulated wealth" is?

Can I ask how good were you at school btw?

Are you going to argue the facts? BD's cities are absolutely atrocious compared to Indian or PK's cities.
 
Are you stupid?

"Accumulated Wealth" is the reason that Pakistani cities look better than BD cities for now.

The real reason is that your PPP per capita is behind us. Your government doesn't pay heed to infrastructure development which makes it exactly look like an LDC country.
 
The real reason is that your PPP per capita is behind us. Your government doesn't pay heed to infrastructure development which makes it exactly look like an LDC country.


If it makes your butt-hurt less severe then believe what you like.
 
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