Asean should be wary of being drawn into Japan's dispute

[kalu_miah]

@sEoulman556 @nufix KFX is a great program, but there is a glaring gap. The engine. Unless there is indigenous engines being developed and produced by South Korea, the air frame and avionics mean little, because the program will remain dependent on engines from other countries.

@5Star I beg to differ with you on South Korea's tech advancement. You should take a ride on Hyundai Equus or Genesis, a completely indigenous production. They can easily compete head on with any Japanese or German cars. This is just one example. South Korea's achievements in science and technology just like the Japanese is an asset and pride for Asia. But their weapons programs are under chains because of restrictions placed by their big brother, the USA.

 

[Soryu]

Korea is not even considered as a middle tier country. Middle tier countries are Germany, France, UK, Japan, Italy. Korea's industrial manufacturing capabilities are not even close to the listed countries that I mention. Gangnam style is just a cheap product that can't even be compared to something like Italy produces such as Ferrari; I seriously don't know if you're being serious or joking when you mention Gangnam style

As for aerospace industry, Indonesia is way ahead of Korea. The best thing about Korea is just a licenced production of the F-16 that Korea later called K-something.

Don't agreed with bold part, Korean is not best in some core and important technology to compare with Japan, Germanry, UK..., incluce in military section, but they still improving their tech, they good.
I think even Japanese should learn at Korean in something.

 

[nufix]

Don't agreed with bold part, Korean is not best in some core and important technology to compare with Japan, Germanry, UK..., incluce in military section, but they still improving their tech, they good.
I think even Japanese should learn at Korean in something.

Agree, and for additions, SK's aerospace Industry when weighted against Indonesia's aerospace industry, is surely significantly winning at most point, including core technologies for combat aircraft radars that SK has already possessed through Samsung-Thales cooperation while Indonesia is still pretty much importing it to be later manufactured. SK has sent its first rocket to outer space while Indonesia is still planning it for 2014, Indonesia's rocket now is still only for satellite delivery purposes with minor space missions to carry.

 

[sEoulman556]

Choom Baekkeso Pangeup samnida.

Korea has been a Chinese vassal state since Kim Chun Chu of Silla allied with Tang 1400 years ago (I am watching this KBS K-drama series now). The brief intermission of Japanese occupation and US vassal status are temporary, unless Korea decides to work with ASEAN. A ASEAN+ allied with China is the only salvation route for both Korea and Japan:

Seoul has no plans to take the position of a major security partner in an ASEAN alliance given our domestic needs of military manpower guarding against our brothers to the North and the dysfunctional politics that is currently plaguing my country. Also, Koreans will not have the political will to debate about whether to accept such taxing requests for support, which we could find ourselves regretting in the future. We’ve always been trying to increase development aid and economic investments in ASEAN countries but its the requests for Korean troops to participate in peacekeeping missions that is the problem. There is almost universal agreement in my country not to militarily interfere in other countries after our hard learned lessons about ROK participation in the War in Vietnam that stretched from the 60s to the 70s. Personally, I don't think we've apologized enough However, there are exceptions as problems affecting multiple countries is never good for regional security. For example, that stupid pirate problem that is happening around Somalia is a rather good one. Those pirates seem to think that anybody with a container ship is an easy target. ROKN UDTs will correct that mistaken belief with 5.56 AR fire and splashing it on the morning news of media outlets worldwide. Shipping lanes that are used by all countries from every corner of the globe should be considered sacrosanct as it is a means of commerce and communication between other countries.

On a different note, Seoul will never be in the ASEAN alliance that gives political acknowledgement (even if its friendly) to China. South Korea has their own plans for forcing China to the bargaining table (or at least agreeing to no independent military strikes over disputes). This is a rather sensitive topic that is best left to other threads. But, suffice to say that capitulation to China is never a choice that should be considered. This will be the main issue that will be the cornerstone of the ASEAN alliance. This alliance will be a political union that is most determined against deferring to belligerent foes like China and will not be a wholly anti-China bloc. If ASEAN member states can’t accept this, political goodwill will be wasted between ASEAN and Koreans (I can’t speak for Japanese) and Seoul will focus their unilateral efforts on attaining strategic parity with China. ASEAN is utterly on its own if that happens as Seoul will not want partners that have their actions contradict with their stated wishes.

Its even worse if the need for such an alliance comes sooner than expected during "Black Swan" events such as our reunification, as no Korean military assets will definitely be unavailable for the joint exercises or peacekeeping ops due to the threat of foreign infiltrators seeking access to Korean borders and uncooperative North Korean military units. Unfortunately, the immediate Asian security environment of that timeframe will be up for grabs as there is no single country like the Americans that has the capability of projecting so many naval assets across oceans. If ASEAN members are truly unbiased in the belief that there should be an ASEAN alliance led by Japan and Korea, there needs to be floods of letters of intent signed by the heads of state in the ASEAN community that are 1st-class mailed to Seoul and Tokyo. It will take some time after this happens but Seoul will put select disputes on hold in order to work with Japan. This alliance will be a great venue for all the ASEAN members to voice their concerns to Korea and Japan. Please remember, for that to happen, it relies on factors and events that are out of South Korea's borders. This sounds like a doom-and-gloom analysis but this is how it will be unfortunately unless events shift in the favor of ASEAN as a whole. You probably know, that history never works out that way IMHO

Korea is not even considered as a middle tier country. Middle tier countries are Germany, France, UK, Japan, Italy. Korea's industrial manufacturing capabilities are not even close to the listed countries that I mention. Gangnam style is just a cheap product that can't even be compared to something like Italy produces such as Ferrari; I seriously don't know if you're being serious or joking when you mention Gangnam style

As for aerospace industry, Indonesia is way ahead of Korea. The best thing about Korea is just a licenced production of the F-16 that Korea later called K-something.

I like how you threw in countries that were important at some point in past years. But, at this time they’re hemorrhaging economic growth, finding themselves unable to pull themselves out of the holes they dug in sabotaging their own country, or just have problems that are so insurmountable they’d rather put it off. For all those countries you put up there, the only country is Germany that is relatively free of these problems and doesn’t show any signs of losing their industrial capability. For that, I should express mail you a sticker. Did you want a bright red one, like in the preschool days?

And Indonesia is definitely not ahead South Korea’s aviation industry in terms of technological advances. These industries have their polished areas and their own unresolved issues. Indonesian advancements do not match certain Korean advancements in this field while Korean aviation companies haven’t achieved the sales volume capacity (yet) that Indonesians currently possess. The Gangnam style song reference was a joke but I didn’t know I had to ask permission from the Vietnamese if I could make a joke, lol.

 

[kalu_miah]

Seoul has no plans to take the position of a major security partner in an ASEAN alliance given our domestic needs of military manpower guarding against our brothers to the North and the dysfunctional politics that is currently plaguing my country. Also, Koreans will not have the political will to debate about whether to accept such taxing requests for support, which we could find ourselves regretting in the future. We’ve always been trying to increase development aid and economic investments in ASEAN countries but its the requests for Korean troops to participate in peacekeeping missions that is the problem. There is almost universal agreement in my country not to militarily interfere in other countries after our hard learned lessons about ROK participation in the War in Vietnam that stretched from the 60s to the 70s. Personally, I don't think we've apologized enough However, there are exceptions as problems affecting multiple countries is never good for regional security. For example, that stupid pirate problem that is happening around Somalia is a rather good one. Those pirates seem to think that anybody with a container ship is an easy target. ROKN UDTs will correct that mistaken belief with 5.56 AR fire and splashing it on the morning news of media outlets worldwide. Shipping lanes that are used by all countries from every corner of the globe should be considered sacrosanct as it is a means of commerce and communication between other countries.

On a different note, Seoul will never be in the ASEAN alliance that gives political acknowledgement (even if its friendly) to China. South Korea has their own plans for forcing China to the bargaining table (or at least agreeing to no independent military strikes over disputes). This is a rather sensitive topic that is best left to other threads. But, suffice to say that capitulation to China is never a choice that should be considered. This will be the main issue that will be the cornerstone of the ASEAN alliance. This alliance will be a political union that is most determined against deferring to belligerent foes like China and will not be a wholly anti-China bloc. If ASEAN member states can’t accept this, political goodwill will be wasted between ASEAN and Koreans (I can’t speak for Japanese) and Seoul will focus their unilateral efforts on attaining strategic parity with China. ASEAN is utterly on its own if that happens as Seoul will not want partners that have their actions contradict with their stated wishes.

Its even worse if the need for such an alliance comes sooner than expected during "Black Swan" events such as our reunification, as no Korean military assets will definitely be unavailable for the joint exercises or peacekeeping ops due to the threat of foreign infiltrators seeking access to Korean borders and uncooperative North Korean military units. Unfortunately, the immediate Asian security environment of that timeframe will be up for grabs as there is no single country like the Americans that has the capability of projecting so many naval assets across oceans. If ASEAN members are truly unbiased in the belief that there should be an ASEAN alliance led by Japan and Korea, there needs to be floods of letters of intent signed by the heads of state in the ASEAN community that are 1st-class mailed to Seoul and Tokyo. It will take some time after this happens but Seoul will put select disputes on hold in order to work with Japan. This alliance will be a great venue for all the ASEAN members to voice their concerns to Korea and Japan. Please remember, for that to happen, it relies on factors and events that are out of South Korea's borders. This sounds like a doom-and-gloom analysis but this is how it will be unfortunately unless events shift in the favor of ASEAN as a whole. You probably know, that history never works out that way IMHO

Thanks for your detailed reply. In summary what you are saying is that such an alliance between Japan, South Korea and ASEAN is unlikely to happen, but its possible if ASEAN countries want it bad enough (which is probably unlikely to happen).

From another Korean source, I heard this point of view:

- Koreans know that in a future struggle (mostly economic) for supremacy between China and the West, China will come out victorious
- the above is possible to happen in about 2-5 decades from today
- when this eventually happens, both Japan and South Korea (unified with North or not) will become vulnerable, if they remained dependent on the West/NATO as allies
- so both Japan and South Korea need new partners for their alliance in addition to the West/NATO
- there is no other region that is better suited for this alliance other than ASEAN for these two countries
- so the desire for alliance will be mutual, as is already demonstrated by Japan's recent proposal for defense ties with ASEAN:
Japan seeks defence ties with ASEAN amid China rows
- the alliance will ensure security for both ASEAN and Japan/South Korea duo against the Chinese hyper power from becoming too threatening, initially under NATO umbrella and later under SCO umbrella by working with China as a separate and equal partner, rather than under China in a master-slave relationship, just like China's current relationship with Russia is one that is more among two equal partners

 

[Genesis]

Thanks for your detailed reply. In summary what you are saying is that such an alliance between Japan, South Korea and ASEAN is unlikely to happen, but its possible if ASEAN countries want it bad enough (which is probably unlikely to happen).

From another Korean source, I heard this point of view:

- Koreans know that in a future struggle (mostly economic) for supremacy between China and the West, China will come out victorious
- the above is possible to happen in about 2-5 decades from today
- when this eventually happens, both Japan and South Korea (unified with North or not) will become vulnerable, if they remained dependent on the West/NATO as allies
- so both Japan and South Korea need new partners for their alliance in addition to the West/NATO
- there is no other region that is better suited for this alliance other than ASEAN for these two countries
- so the desire for alliance will be mutual, as is already demonstrated by Japan's recent proposal for defense ties with ASEAN:
Japan seeks defence ties with ASEAN amid China rows
- the alliance will ensure security for both ASEAN and Japan/South Korea duo against the Chinese hyper power from becoming too threatening, initially under NATO umbrella and later under SCO umbrella by working with China as a separate and equal partner, rather than under China in a master-slave relationship, just like China's current relationship with Russia is one that is more among two equal partners

I agree with the premise that Korea wants no part of ASEAN, it's because Korea is already sort of developed, while the ASEANs are well not.

Korea has a long relationship with China and we have more in common than say with the ASEAN.

But Kalu_miah, your later points, so Korea and Japan can't depend on America, so they depend on ASEAN? That makes a lot of sense. Though these may or may not be your points.

But when China can go toe to toe with the US do you really think ASEAN will be the ones to stop China? China, Korea, Japan will never be a master slave relationship. Look at US EU, when both parties are developed(China not yet) even if there is a strength difference, it won't result in that kind of relationship. It will be one of partnership, though one that has a bigger partner.

China Russia relationship is not one of equal but one of China submitting a little bit to Russia. This is the Chinese way of thinking, Russia is still sort of powerful and the legitimate heir to the USSR throne of leader of the East.

China will want to change this, but not before it is ready. So Russians can stand in the trenches and take grenades while china watches in the back and build up its strength.

 

[kalu_miah]

I agree with the premise that Korea wants no part of ASEAN, it's because Korea is already sort of developed, while the ASEANs are well not.

Korea has a long relationship with China and we have more in common than say with the ASEAN.

But Kalu_miah, your later points, so Korea and Japan can't depend on America, so they depend on ASEAN? That makes a lot of sense. Though these may or may not be your points.

But when China can go toe to toe with the US do you really think ASEAN will be the ones to stop China? China, Korea, Japan will never be a master slave relationship. Look at US EU, when both parties are developed(China not yet) even if there is a strength difference, it won't result in that kind of relationship. It will be one of partnership, though one that has a bigger partner.

China Russia relationship is not one of equal but one of China submitting a little bit to Russia. This is the Chinese way of thinking, Russia is still sort of powerful and the legitimate heir to the USSR throne of leader of the East.

China will want to change this, but not before it is ready. So Russians can stand in the trenches and take grenades while china watches in the back and build up its strength.

I did not exactly say that ASEAN, in its current under developed fragmented form, is a replacement for the US. But when ASEAN becomes more integrated and developed, with 600 million population, the future may look different.

Currently China, South Korea and Japan are in a way peer competitors (Korea to a lesser extent because of its small size) in terms of developed population. Although China is lagging but it makes up for it with size. In the near future, when China becomes much more developed, it creates imbalance. Even with an alliance with the US, South Korea and Japan cannot balance the threat from a more developed China. This is the scenario where I am theorizing that ASEAN can play a role to offset that imbalance, while the US stays put in North east Asia as an off shore balancer initially.

The other factor is that China grew in size in history by assimilating many different cultures over many thousands of years. Countries such as Korea's or Japan represent those that could not be absorbed and the countries in the immediate South (Mekong Delta region) may be cultures that Han Chinese did not want to absorb and assimilate as they are too alien and not desire able?

According to my theory on regionalism, countries will try to form alliances and unions based on mutual interest. And it is highly unlikely that China will be able to form a union or any kind of alliance with the Korea's or Japan because of this fear of assimilation, because China is too large and too close. I think economic integration will happen, however, increasingly among countries in Eurasian land mass but the question is how security and political alliances will develop.

On the other hand, ASEAN for Korea and Japan is far away enough to be safe and also an opportunity to integrate and develop and thus create a large and reliable ally not too far from home. By forming a close alliance, Japan, South Korea (or future unified Korea) and ASEAN, all of them small or medium or semi large countries, can use each other for mutual benefit.

How can China benefit from this development? Can China stop this from happening?

I think China will try to resist this alliance from taking shape, as it seems counter intuitive. But if you think about it, an alliance will empower these nations and help them to eventually let go of their dependence on the US, which is beneficial for the region as a whole.

This is why I am betting that China, looking at the long term, should not create road block for this alliance, as it may in the future create an environment where the US is no longer needed in the region as an offshore balancer.

This is essentially my theory about a new "Unite and Empower paradigm" using regional integration and shared cooperation, rather than the old "Divide and Rule paradigm" of master-slave relationship and resource exploitation.

Just like ASEAN+, I am theorizing the China will back or at least not create a road block for Putin's proposed Eurasian Union and possible West Asian Union that includes Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, because all of these unions could potentially ally with China under a greater SCO umbrella and become a counter weight to NATO, far into the future.

 

[Genesis]

I did not exactly say that ASEAN, in its current under developed fragmented form, is a replacement for the US. But when ASEAN becomes more integrated and developed, with 600 million population, the future may look different.


The other factor is that China grew in size in history by assimilating many different cultures over many thousands of years. Countries such as Korea's or Japan represent those that could not be absorbed and the countries in the immediate South (Mekong Delta region) may be cultures that Han Chinese did not want to absorb and assimilate as they are too alien and not desire able?

Good points and I can see where you are coming from, but a few things.

Korea was at one point China, but then they broke away and created their own thing based on Chinese culture. Japan is separated by a distance longer than the English Chanel, so it's not going to be easy. Besides, when the Japanese first were recorded in words by the Han dynasty, Japan was described as a land ran by clans, ruled by a queen. So very under developed.

For ASEAN to develop to be able to catch up to China even combined is hard, right now they are less than half of China's GDP and even with Japan and korea, they are no match economically.

Currently China, South Korea and Japan are in a way peer competitors (Korea to a lesser extent because of its small size) in terms of developed population. Although China is lagging but it makes up for it with size. In the near future, when China becomes much more developed, it creates imbalance. Even with an alliance with the US, South Korea and Japan cannot balance the threat from a more developed China. This is the scenario where I am theorizing that ASEAN can play a role to offset that imbalance, while the US stays put in North east Asia as an off shore balancer initially.

US will be the balancing factor here. However, if anything the US must act now when China isn't ready to attack and stall, because time is China's best friend not US'. If we wait one decade to about 2025, the US will not challenge China in Asia, and another decade will see China match US.

Also China has Allies or at least nations that don't want to see China fall to the Western block.

According to my theory on regionalism, countries will try to form alliances and unions based on mutual interest. And it is highly unlikely that China will be able to form a union or any kind of alliance with the Korea's or Japan because of this fear of assimilation, because China is too large and too close. I think economic integration will happen, however, increasingly among countries in Eurasian land mass but the question is how security and political alliances will develop.

while I like this theory and can see how it might apply, but I also see this as only on the surface.

Canada and US and Mexico were once enemies, but why did it stop? Korea, China and sometimes Japan were in a alliance for hundreds of years why did it stop?

The answer Hegemony, China today, while large and powerful, still hasn't achieved total dominance of the past. It is still seen as backwards, and weak. Once there is no doubt of any out come of war between the countries, and economically eclipse all, China will be like the US leader of an alliance.

Once China can go toe to toe with the US on all aspects, the alliance will form.

On the other hand, ASEAN for Korea and Japan is far away enough to be safe and also an opportunity to integrate and develop and thus create a large and reliable ally not too far from home. By forming a close alliance, Japan, South Korea (or future unified Korea) and ASEAN, all of them small or medium or semi large countries, can use each other for mutual benefit.

ASEAN threatens Japan and Korea, as much as an ant threatens a foot. Japan and Korea is not better than ASEAN, they play in different leagues, this is like comparing the Chinese national team to the Spanish soccer team.

How can China benefit from this development? Can China stop this from happening?

I think China will try to resist this alliance from taking shape, as it seems counter intuitive. But if you think about it, an alliance will empower these nations and help them to eventually let go of their dependence on the US, which is beneficial for the region as a whole.

This is why I am betting that China, looking at the long term, should not create road block for this alliance, as it may in the future create an environment where the US is no longer needed in the region as an offshore balancer.

This is essentially my theory about a new "Unite and Empower paradigm" using regional integration and shared cooperation, rather than the old "Divide and Rule paradigm" of master-slave relationship and resource exploitation.

I agree with parts of this, but let me state my differences.

First An ASEAN, Japan and Korea alliance won't work, or even ASEAN itself. ASEAN is not EU they have not been together for every long and haven't had the inter marriages between monarchies like Europe of old. ASEAN is just like BRICS forced together in an uncomfortable marriage.

China won't have to do anything to this Alliance, Japan and Korea hate each other as do the rest ASEANs towards Japan. While Korea will not bow to Japan, Japan will not be under ASEAN. ASEAN itself will not bow to each other.

In a military situation, a round table won't work, a supreme commander will have to be selected, as long as China doesn't push too hard. They won't come up with one that they'll all accept.

All China has to do if war is wait it out, until their differences kick in and get a few on China's side through money and force, then the panic will start. After China should quickly defeat a few more to bring the rest to the negotiation table. Cake walk.

The only thing in common they share now is economic interests, which China will trump, and resistance against China. Once they see that this is not achievable and would benefit more in an Alliance with China, ASEAN will end in reality.

So no threat.

Just like ASEAN+, I am theorizing the China will back or at least not create a road block for Putin's proposed Eurasian Union and possible West Asian Union that includes Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, because all of these unions could potentially ally with China under a greater SCO umbrella and become a counter weight to NATO, far into the future.

I'm not sure about this not too much research in this and it's too unclear at this point. Too many things in China and the China seas that have not been resolved for China to focus on middle east and Europe. Though I have an idea, it's not clear enough to be even called it that. So I'll just leave this part be.

 

[kalu_miah]

Good points and I can see where you are coming from, but a few things.

Korea was at one point China, but then they broke away and created their own thing based on Chinese culture. Japan is separated by a distance longer than the English Chanel, so it's not going to be easy. Besides, when the Japanese first were recorded in words by the Han dynasty, Japan was described as a land ran by clans, ruled by a queen. So very under developed.

Please elaborate the bold part above. Are you referring to this:
Gojoseon

The impression I got is that they were always a unique culture with their own spoken language (for around 5000 years according to Koreans), although they did not have their own alphabet till Hangul was invented by King Sejong in 15th century:
Dangun - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

After Unified Silla about 1400 years back, they became close to Chinese empires and remained a vassal or allied state. Most elite Yangbans (aristocrats) used to study Chinese and knew how to read and write Chinese. After fall of Goryeo, and the beginning of Joseon, they became even closer to China, borrowing from China and adopting Neo-confucianism (mix of Buddhism and Confucianism) as their state ideology and thus moved away from earlier state supported Buddhism and Shamanism.

Japan's civilization, because of its isolation as an island, had developed more recently, borrowing influences from Asian mainland to their west.

For ASEAN to develop to be able to catch up to China even combined is hard, right now they are less than half of China's GDP and even with Japan and korea, they are no match economically.

2012 IMF GDP figures:
China: 8.2 Tr
Japan: 6 Tr
S Korea: 1.1 Tr
ASEAN: 2.3 Tr

Currently the nominal GDP is higher for ASEAN+2 than China, but due to higher overall growth rate (Japan has no growth rate and Korean growth rate is slower) China will have much bigger GDP in a decade or 2. Unless ASEAN can grow at similar high growth rate, it will be difficult for ASEAN+2 to play catch up with China. So it depends on how much effort and importance Japan and South Korea put on the development of ASEAN economy.

US will be the balancing factor here. However, if anything the US must act now when China isn't ready to attack and stall, because time is China's best friend not US'. If we wait one decade to about 2025, the US will not challenge China in Asia, and another decade will see China match US.

Also China has Allies or at least nations that don't want to see China fall to the Western block.

Agreed.

while I like this theory and can see how it might apply, but I also see this as only on the surface.

Canada and US and Mexico were once enemies, but why did it stop? Korea, China and sometimes Japan were in a alliance for hundreds of years why did it stop?

The answer Hegemony, China today, while large and powerful, still hasn't achieved total dominance of the past. It is still seen as backwards, and weak. Once there is no doubt of any out come of war between the countries, and economically eclipse all, China will be like the US leader of an alliance.

Once China can go toe to toe with the US on all aspects, the alliance will form.

Although Mexico is in NAFTA, which is a trade alliance, my prediction is that eventually it will join and become one of influential key states in UNASUR, after Brazil, which is the largest state in Latin America, whereas Mexico is the 2nd largest. USA and Canada are part of the Euro origin North America, and they will remain allied with EU and Oceania, under NATO alliance.

As for China, I agree that once China becomes a peer competitor of the US, specially in scientific research and weapons technology, then South Korea and Japan may leave their alliance with the US. I predict this in my theory, but certain conditions have to be met before this to happen.

ASEAN threatens Japan and Korea, as much as an ant threatens a foot. Japan and Korea is not better than ASEAN, they play in different leagues, this is like comparing the Chinese national team to the Spanish soccer team.

I don't think I implied that ASEAN threatens Japan and Korea in any way, what I meant was that there is fear of assimilation on the part of Japan and Korea by China, because of China's proximity, size and power, but there can be no such fear from ASEAN states as they are far away. So that is why a security and even a political alliance with ASEAN like EU (ASEAN+2) is more attractive to Japan and Korea than a security and political alliance with China, according to my theory. But an economic integration with China will be welcomed by all states in this ASEAN+2 region.

I agree with parts of this, but let me state my differences.

First An ASEAN, Japan and Korea alliance won't work, or even ASEAN itself. ASEAN is not EU they have not been together for every long and haven't had the inter marriages between monarchies like Europe of old. ASEAN is just like BRICS forced together in an uncomfortable marriage.

China won't have to do anything to this Alliance, Japan and Korea hate each other as do the rest ASEANs towards Japan. While Korea will not bow to Japan, Japan will not be under ASEAN. ASEAN itself will not bow to each other.

In a military situation, a round table won't work, a supreme commander will have to be selected, as long as China doesn't push too hard. They won't come up with one that they'll all accept.

All China has to do if war is wait it out, until their differences kick in and get a few on China's side through money and force, then the panic will start. After China should quickly defeat a few more to bring the rest to the negotiation table. Cake walk.

The only thing in common they share now is economic interests, which China will trump, and resistance against China. Once they see that this is not achievable and would benefit more in an Alliance with China, ASEAN will end in reality.

So no threat.

I see your points:

- ASEAN+2 have no elite intermarriage (this can be changed if more developed countries in ASEAN+2 region give foreign scholarships to bright students)
- Japan and Korea hate each other, yes, but I believe they may and will work together if it is needed for their survival as unique cultures, because survival always comes first
- in a military situation, they can have rotating leadership like NATO, but Japan is the most powerful nation in this group, so they will naturally lead in every effort, including military
- despite differences ASEAN integration is progressing, although not as much as EU

I do not think ASEAN will end any time soon, although it may not progress rapidly like EU, until Japan and South Korea decide to join.

The model I see is that a close economic integration of entire ASEAN+3 region, but security alliances forming as ASEAN+2. China may not like this, but China trying to prevent this alliance to form, will ensure continued involvement and presence of US/NATO alliance with these states in ASEAN+2.

If China wants to reduce US/NATO alliance in ASEAN+2 region, then I believe they have no choice but to allow a security alliance to form in ASEAN+2 and allow Japan and South Korea to work on development of ASEAN region.

So in brief, a Divide and Rule policy by China will ensure continued US/NATO presence as an offshore balancer, while a Unite and Empower policy will reduce dependence on US/NATO, which may pave the way for their eventual removal, if and when the ASEAN+2 alliance feels sufficiently secure about their own abilities to defend themselves.

So in 2-5 decades two things will happen in parallel:

- China reaching parity with the US, economically and militarily
- ASEAN+2 integration and security alliance and development of ASEAN region as a result, so much so that they will be able to defend themselves without help from US/NATO alliance

The field will then be created for ASEAN+2 to switchover from NATO to SCO umbrella.

 

[Soryu]

If you want compared about the size, so it's no match, but real life was not only that...