Arming India Exclusive: India Looking At 60 FGFAs As Russia Reduces Price, Final Talks On

[sathya]

Just a bargaining chip...

Development in two fronts, but finally only one will go through , whichever is more advantageous to India

I would say pak fa has taken over the typhoon role in MMRCA ..

 

[dadeechi]

What's interesting is that incase of RAFALE deal Dassault Aviation wanted to partner with Reliance as against HAL which led to the eventual cancellation of the RFP for MMRCA. In this case FGFA, Russia is preferring to partner with HAL as against Reliance.

I would have preferred RAFALE partnering with Reliance, Sukhoi partnering with TATAs while HAL focusing on Tejas & AMCA.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Just a bargaining chip...

Development in two fronts, but finally only one will go through , whichever is more advantageous to India

I would say pak fa has taken over the typhoon role in MMRCA ..

This is illogical. The FGFA and MMRCA/Rafale were NEVER direct competitors for the IAF's future outlays, it was never a case of them being mutually exclusive purchases but complimantary products. Now the Indian economy is growing comfortably enough why would it be the case that a program has to be cut?

The entire notion is illogical anyway, going for the FGFA instead of the Rafale would leave an increidbly top-heavy fighter force for the IAF that it can ill-afford. If the MKIs can, best case scenerio, only acheive a 75% availabilty rate do you think a Russian 5th gen fighter will be able to break the 65% mark? I don't. And god only knows what the per hour flight cost would be for the FGFA when the MKI's touches >$20,000.

An IAF of 500 MKI/FGFA and 200 LCA is an unfeasibly unbalanced force.

 

[MilSpec]

Maybe for earlier tranches but the current (and all future) production standard costs close to $90-100 million/bird sir. The MLU'd/Super standards will cost even more and these would be the versions the IAF would have to get (as they would be the production standard at that point) in lieu of the Rafale and would only enter service from 2020 onwards.

57 mil as of 2014.

Maybe for earlier tranches but the current (and all future) production standard costs close to $90-100 million/bird sir. The MLU'd/Super standards will cost even more and these would be the versions the IAF would have to get (as they would be the production standard at that point) in lieu of the Rafale and would only enter service from 2020 onwards.

Production setup costs of MKI never went to Irkut btw, most machinery used in machining and assembly came from our own commodity managers mixed from germany, Japan, US, swiss etc. We don't use Russian CNC's for machining airframes for MKI, thus we don't pay setup costs to Irkut. Armament comes from a different account , I don't know much about it, it's direct proc for IAF and BDL.

Whatever MoD want's to pay is fine as long as we know what we are getting for the costs, 36 a/c's for 9 billion puts each at 250 million, what does that 250 million include?
As its flyaway procurement, there is no setup costs for us. as per your comment lets assume it's 105 mil / ac, whats the rest of 145 million for? Armament? fuel? spares? stores? training?

I cant come to terms what can cost 145 million per aircraft even at $20000/hr operating cost, it comes to about 7250 hrs of flight. 1500-2000 hrs on a MKI is around 10-14 years depending on how aggressive the schedule is, here we are talking about 7250 hrs, take you best estimates and calculate how many years we are talking here about.

I am not sold on the additional 145 million/ac.

 

[sathya]

This is illogical. The FGFA and MMRCA/Rafale were NEVER direct competitors for the IAF's future outlays, it was never a case of them being mutually exclusive purchases but complimantary products. Now the Indian economy is growing comfortably enough why would it be the case that a program has to be cut?

The entire notion is illogical anyway, going for the FGFA instead of the Rafale would leave an increidbly top-heavy fighter force for the IAF that it can ill-afford. If the MKIs can, best case scenerio, only acheive a 75% availabilty rate do you think a Russian 5th gen fighter will be able to break the 65% mark? I don't. And god only knows what the per hour flight cost would be for the FGFA when the MKI's touches >$20,000.

An IAF of 500 MKI/FGFA and 200 LCA is an unfeasibly unbalanced force.

I thinking in terms of money available..
Can we support two contracts together ?

 

[dadeechi]

MiG-29K - $40 Million

SU -30 MKI - $60 Million

F/A-18 - $80 Million

RAFALE - $120 Million

FGFA - $180 Million

 

[Taygibay]

HUH? Abingdon buddy, really? Seriously? Ref. # Post 28.

Compute all the money invested in the MMRCA, all now lost forever!
What I meant by govt shuffling. The government of Nation X spends
through all ministries and agencies involved cash to no avail as it ends
up not extracting a decision from the process = shuffling.
To paraphrase Hollywood : It moves ... but it ain't alive.
Waste of energy equals waste of money a shown by the famous equation.

Energy = MoneyxCorruption squared?

In reverse, 100% agreed to your Post 30.

As for that list above, I wonder where you picked up the numbers dadeechi mate?
A Rafale is below 90 M$ for the French state so that basic export should be that
minus the VAT that is internal French. Then you add minimum complement package
and get back up somewhat but it just cannot be upwards of said 90 M by much.
+- 80M for latest SHornet, +- 90 M$ for Rafale is more logical. *

Great day both, Tay.
* F-35 then at 1X0M$ with the value of X changing everything?

 

[SR-91]

interestingly SJha tweeted a strange tweet too

https://twitter.com/x/status/694859739692343296

Highly doubt that AMCA will cost around $200 mm. How can we have a huge jump from 4th generation fighter costing around "32 million"..... 4+ generation another 15-20 million. I don't see us going from $50 million 4 and a half generation fighter jet to 200 million 5th generation jet even with weapons package.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I thinking in terms of money available..
Can we support two contracts together ?

In short? Yes.

I'll repost what I have said just now on another thread:

Lol, this again? By what logic will any number of Rafales/FGFA bankrupt India? 10% of the contract paid up front and a pay back period of at least 10 years, by the time India finishes paying for the Rafale it will be the 3rd largest economy in the world with a >$120BN/year defence budget. The Net Present Value of this deal is actually comparably minimal given India's expected future cash flows.

The most absurd part of all this is that this keeps getting repeated but year in year out the Military is RETURNING billions in unspent funds to the MoD but the notion that India can't afford such things remains.

https://defence.pk/threads/rs-37-000-crore-of-defence-ministry’s-modernization-budget-remains-underutilized.420690/#post-8131046


India has enough money to pay for 150+ Rafales and 150 FGFAs without such purchases affecting any other program.



Haha, but India can afford to operate 300+ MKIs with FAR higher life cycle costs? The Rafales (like almost all Western products) are far more efficent than their Russian counter parts and any intial premium paid will be more than offset from life cycle cost savings. Everytime the IAF flies their Rafales they would be saving money vis a vis their MKIs (the MKI's cost >$20,000 per flight hour, the Rafale is around $14,000). The MKIs also go through spares like nobody's buisness.

@Taygibay @PARIKRAMA @anant_s @MilSpec

 

[Ind4Ever]

EXCLUSIVE

India Looking At 60 FGFAs As Russia Reduces Price, Final Talks On

By Arming India Correspondent

NEW DELHI, FEB. 3, 2016: India and Russia are in final negotiations in New Delhi to settle the contributions for the development of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) at a reported $3.7 billion from both sides, Arming India has learnt from diplomatic sources. An early conclusion of the agreement is expected.

Development costs are to be paid in seven years, starting with an initial payment of $1 billion. The breakthrough follows a price reduction by Russia last month.

India's contribution for development costs would entitle it to extensive transfer of technology and include delivery of three prototypes. Subsequently, the entire lot of FGFAs for the Indian Air Force (IAF) are intended to be made at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's 'Russia complex' in Nasik, Maharashtra.

The cost of each series production FGFA is initially pegged at a $225 million apiece, which is about two-and-a-half times the estimated current price of the Su-30MKI, currently India's frontline fighter.
(thats flyaway i guess without the rest of stuff)

Sources disclosed that a reluctant IAF has finally been made to come around on the FGFA. But it has reduced its requirement to just 60 fighters, or three squadrons. This is being interpreted as a lack of enthusiasm for the proposed fighter, which is yet to prove true fifth generation capability.

The initial numbers were pegged around 220, which were later brought down to 120, and now have dwindled to half of even the reduced numbers.

Indeed, the Russian Air Force itself has committed itself to just 12 of these proposed aircraft, known in Russia as PAK-FA. These 12 aircraft will comprise a trial squadron.

But Russia is hopeful of persuading India to eventually commit to far more than the initial lot of 60 FGFAs.

India will have no major contribution to design and development, and the project is being re-modeled on the Su-30MKI lines, wherein India substantially paid for the development cost, paving the way for assembly line production in India under transfer of technology.

The initial concept of India having a substantial work share in the design and development of the fifth generation fighter in order to boost indigenous capability has been abandoned.

The rapid headway on the under-development FGFA is in stark contrast to the stalemate in price negotiations on the curtailed order for 36 flyaway French Rafale fighters, which are reportedly stalled at a level of over $11 billion, according to top Indian Defense Ministry sources.

The FGFA will very significantly enable Russia's military industrial complex to extend its pre-eminence in India by ensuring a follow-on to the Su-30MKI production line.

Informed observers see this as a shot in the arm for the Russia, which they reckon could impact immediately on French and American interests. A renewal of commitment to Russian aircraft will limit the number of Rafale fighters for India, and also reduce the possibility for Americans to sell a fighter aircraft to India.

Boeing Company Chairman James McNerney in October 2015 announcing in New Delhi that his company was ready to set up a manufacturing facility for its F/A-18 fighters, which also have a naval variant, in India.

Lockheed Martin leadership too had in the second half of 2015 made a pitch for selling its F-16 fighters to India, while Swedish Saab made a counter offer to make its Gripen NG fighters.

The two American aircraft manufacturers and the Swedish firm were competitors in the 2007 Indian tender for 126 medium multi role combat aircraft, which was won by French Dassault Aviation's Rafale fighters. The only close competitor to Rafale was the then Cassidian's Eurofighter Typhoon, which is part of the Airbus Group. Only Eurofighter Typhoon campaign, led by the Germans, has openly stated that it is all over for it in India for the Air Force's need for a combat plane.

Significantly, the latest development in the FGFA talks between Russia and India also signals that the public sector Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) will continue to be Russia's major partner in India, and its engagement with emerging Indian private sector in defense production will be marginal.

Just a month ago, Russia rejected the possibility of trying out an alliance with the private sector Reliance Defence on the production of 200 Ka-226T light utility helicopters for the Indian armed forces by opting for HAL to be the production agency in India.

http://armingindia.com/India Looking At 60 FGFAs As Russia Reduces Price, Final Talks On.htm

@Abingdonboy @anant_s @MilSpec @dadeechi @cerberus @Ind4Ever @Vauban @Taygibay

You remember just few days back (less than a week) i said India will use FGFA as a pressure tactic.
Strangely if what article says true than what exactly are we doing here?

Is that a clear indication that we are looking at Rafales in bigger numbers owing to reducing the FGFA numbers and finally we may pool the learnings of FGFA and Rafale in our domestic program AMCA and use that as a credible option in next 2 decades?

This matter makes me feel a bit odd. If 60 is the number with FGFA Stage 2 actual 5th gen engine, this is a massive climbdown.

Then whats the number we are going to have and what are we going to do for other jets in our fleet?

Or we are moving away from quantity to a limited quality fleet with pure self defense aspect and will increase so much economic clout and trade that threat perception from multiple avenues will come down permanently?

Super that was so fast.

When our PM visited Russia . Talks on FGFA took place . But before his visits talks on issue took place at extensive details . As a result

: Russia reduced the price tag

: 2 billion each will be invested for the development

Rest 500 million each every year. I guess its some 4-5 years.

Both agreed to take Su30MKI route. Thus satisfying IAF and helping us reducing the price .

This 60 could be of PAKFA standard with minor changes.

We can expect more orders in course of the deal.

Russia and India still not agreed with the final numbers or price. Its still on . hope we successful in perusing our Russians with big *** orders for both S400 plus and FGFA.