Armenians kill five Azeri soldiers

[Ottoman-Turk]

I agree with most you said , but where is the base located? i think if Azerbaijan invade NK russia will intervene to the point not to allow any more land being lost and if Azeri's take more land actually fight to take it back

Thank you for the welcomes.

Russian presence absolutely is more than just a warning. 102nd Russian military base is in Gyumri, and Russia and Armenia have signed a defense pact (stipulating that if territory of Armenia proper is violated Russia will intervene). As a matter of fact, last year Russia has ammassed thousands of troops and tanks on the border with Azerbaijan. The official reason is to fight the Islamists, but everyone knows that this is not true (you don't fight guerrillas with tanks and heavy weaponry). Of course, this does not assure Russian invasion, but it does confirm that Russia has Armenia's back. You and I have no basis for assuming that this is just a bluff.

Turkiye, unlike Russia, is part of an international organization (NATO) and cannot do whatever it wants. I have explained why in previous posts.

Now, I mentioned that Russian-Armenian pact applies only to internationally recognized Armenian land, meaning NK is not covered. That being said, I don't think anyone doubts that Russia will give Armenia some kind of support in the case of Azeri NK invasion.
Lastly, your assumption that Azerbaijan is all powerful is incorrect. Azeri Caspian oil will run out in 10 years, and the country will be left to the mercy of its immediate neighbors. Aliyev, of course, knows this and is thinking of exit plans for himself (hence the many properties he owns in Dubai). Also, like I said, Armenia does not talk about its military potential unlike Azerbaijan. We have no idea what Armenian army is capable of.

Possibilty of Iranian support to Armenia also should not be ignored in case of Azeri invasion of NK.

 

[Axa-]

Waiting for Leggionnare...

 

[Ir.Tab.]

Please take care about true meaning of the word "invasion", the official document shows who is invader:

List of United Nations Security Council resolutions on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

No., Purpose, Date:

822 Calls for the cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of occupying forces from Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan following its occupation on April 3, 1993. April 30, 1993

853 Calls on withdrawal of occupying forces from Agdam district of Azerbaijan occupied on June 23, 1993 and reaffirms UN Resolution 822. July 29, 1993

874 Calls on withdrawal of occupying forces from recently occupied Azerbaijani districts of Fizuli (August 23, 1993), Jabrayil (August 26, 1993), Qubadli (September 31, 1993) and reaffirms UN Resolutions 822 and 853. October 14, 1993

884 Calls on withdrawal of occupying forces from recently occupied Azerbaijani district of Zangilan, calls upon the Government of Armenia to use its influence on the occupying forces, and city of Goradiz and reaffirms UN Resolutions 822, 853, 874. November 12, 1993

 

[Kajutyun]

I agree with most you said , but where is the base located? i think if Azerbaijan invade NK russia will intervene to the point not to allow any more land being lost and if Azeri's take more land actually fight to take it back

The base is located in Gyumri, which is close to Turkish border. You're right, there will be no Russian boots on the ground in case of NK invasion. But as I'm sure you know, Russia will always get its way in the South Caucasus. By this, I mean Russia will give Armenia enough ordnance (Iskanders, S-300s, BT-80s, cruise missiles, maybe even S400) to make sure that Azerbaijan retakes nothing. IMO Azerbaijan needs to start thinking about what it has to lose (Nackchivan, Goranboy, Shahumyan) if it begins hostilities.

You have to understand that Russia is interested in the status quo as it stands right now (Armenia in control of NK).

Ir.Tab: You are right, I mean to say "reclaim" (although NK is historically Armenian land). Not that it matters. Neither Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Russia care about what UN has to say.

 

[Ottoman-Turk]

Azerbaijan will still take its land back , they are getting superior equipment , UAV etc , Russia lacks way behind in UAV , they can give air defence but Azerbaijan will still be superior

 

[TurAr]

The base is located in Gyumri, which is close to Turkish border. You're right, there will be no Russian boots on the ground in case of NK invasion. But as I'm sure you know, Russia will always get its way in the South Caucasus. By this, I mean Russia will give Armenia enough ordnance (Iskanders, S-300s, BT-80s, cruise missiles, maybe even S400) to make sure that Azerbaijan retakes nothing. IMO Azerbaijan needs to start thinking about what it has to lose (Nackchivan, Goranboy, Shahumyan) if it begins hostilities.

You have to understand that Russia is interested in the status quo as it stands right now (Armenia in control of NK).

Ir.Tab: You are right, I mean to say "reclaim" (although NK is historically Armenian land). Not that it matters. Neither Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Russia care about what UN has to say.

As far as i know, in Azerbaijan's inventory, there are more Russian advanced weapons than even the Turkish ones. Why, Russia is still selling weapons to Azerbaijan?

And about the Russian support for the possible NK retrieval. There is also no doubt that Turkey will support Azerbaijan with its all power, and there will be hundreds, if not thousands of volunteers from Turkey to fight against Armenia.

I think that Azerbaijan will not wait 10 more years to solve this problem.

 

[Kajutyun]

Azerbaijan will still take its land back , they are getting superior equipment , UAV etc , Russia lacks way behind in UAV , they can give air defence but Azerbaijan will still be superior

You are wrong. You (or I) have no idea what Armenia has, so you cannot say that Azerbaijan is superior. Azerbaijan's UAV's do not have a munitions payload, only for observation purposes ( like Armenian Krunk UAVs).

As far as i know, in Azerbaijan's inventory, there are more Russian advanced weapons than even the Turkish ones. Why, Russia is still selling weapons to Azerbaijan?

And about the Russian support for the possible NK retrieval. There is also no doubt that Turkey will support Azerbaijan with its all power, and there will be hundreds, if not thousands of volunteers from Turkey to fight against Armenia.

I think that Azerbaijan will not wait 10 more years to solve this problem.

I would be happy to explain this.

Do not sell your countries inventory short: Turkiye has very advanced systems. If by advanced Russian systems in Azerbaijan you mean S-300s, than you are misguided. The only reason Russia feels comfortable with these sales is because it knows that the are easily beatable. Why does it sell weapons? Money. Azerbaijan has a huge amount of a capital and a large arms market. End of story.

I am tired of repeating the same point. For Turkiye to engage Armenia, it has to go through Armenia proper, which is covered by Armenia-Russia treaty. I'm sorry, but Turkish Azeri relationship is not strong enough for Turkiye to be willing to engage Russia. (In fact, there are a large number of disagreements between the two Turkic neighbors. Watch, they will be exposed in the media in the coming years.)

Azerbaijan does not have any choice in the matter. Azerbaijan will do what Russia says.

 

[Ir.Tab.]

Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly Resolution 1416 (2005)

Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) Resolution 1416 (2005) is PACE Resolution 1416, titled “The conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region dealt with by the OSCE Minsk Conference”, is a resolution of PACE about the situation on occupied territories of Azerbaijan by Armenian military forces, adopted by PACE on January 25 2005

 

[Targon]

Azerbaijan has superior equipment.

 

[Kajutyun]

Azerbaijan has superior equipment.

I don't necessarily disagree, I'm just saying you can't be sure because of Armenian MOD secrecy. By repeating the same thing, you won't convince me otherwise.

 

[Targon]

We don't know if both sides have some "secret super weapons" so we're judging with the revealed inventories.

Anyway, Armenia can't afford to expand or modernize its military enough to keep up with Azerbaijan, if not now 5 years later 10 years later or 20 years later Azerbaijan will eventually attack with a greater military.

 

[Ottoman-Turk]

I don't necessarily disagree, I'm just saying you can't be sure because of Armenian MOD secrecy. By repeating the same thing, you won't convince me otherwise.

Then we will provide so much free equipment that we have in store not used for use by azerbaijan in reserve , and they will send their good equipment to battlefield , and they will not lack quantity and also have quality

ANKA UAV patrol very nicely , increase communication which is very important we will provide

T-155 FIRTINA to azerbaijan



they will buy our helicopter

 

[TurAr]

I would be happy to explain this.

Do not sell your countries inventory short: Turkiye has very advanced systems. If by advanced Russian systems in Azerbaijan you mean S-300s, than you are misguided. The only reason Russia feels comfortable with these sales is because it knows that the are easily beatable. Why does it sell weapons? Money. Azerbaijan has a huge amount of a capital and a large arms market. End of story.

I am tired of repeating the same point. For Turkiye to engage Armenia, it has to go through Armenia proper, which is covered by Armenia-Russia treaty. I'm sorry, but Turkish Azeri relationship is not strong enough for Turkiye to be willing to engage Russia. (In fact, there are a large number of disagreements between the two Turkic neighbors. Watch, they will be exposed in the media in the coming years.)

Azerbaijan does not have any choice in the matter. Azerbaijan will do what Russia says.

Like i said, Azerbaijan does not need Turkey's direct help in order to handle Armenia. There will be indirect help from Turkey to Azerbaijan just like from Russia to Armenia.

We are even helping the Syrian rebels, why wouldn't we help Azerbaijan? The disagreements between the leaders has nothing to do with the bond between the two nations. We consider ourselves "two states - one nation".

And about Armenian's secret weapons. What could a country which is dependent on its diaspora to survive possibly has better than Azerbaijan?

 

[Ir.Tab.]

Ir.Tab: You are right, I mean to say "reclaim" (although NK is historically Armenian land). Not that it matters. Neither Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Russia care about what UN has to say.

ٰThe people living in a territory is more important for me in comparison with never un-biesed historical stories. The people living there was a mixture of Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Even during soviet era those lands were part of Azerbaijan. Historical stories never justify cruelty for international community. I accept there were Armenians too but that military action never could be categorized as a democratic solution.

 

[Kajutyun]

We don't know if both sides have some "secret super weapons" so we're judging with the revealed inventories.

Anyway, Armenia can't afford to expand or modernize its military enough to keep up with Azerbaijan, if not now 5 years later 10 years later or 20 years later Azerbaijan will eventually attack with a greater military.

We can rule out Azerbaijan having such weapons, because Aliyev regime never hesitates to discuss weapons transfers. His big mouth will be the end of him someday. As for Armenia, like in the example I gave, the S-300s acquired were not known to the public until seen in a parade 7 years later. Azerbaijan has never shown this type of discretion.

Azerbaiji oil will run out in 10 years. Don't believe me? Look at this link:Azerbaijan Crude Oil Production by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)
It's called peak oil theory, and the decline will be MUCH steeper than the ascent.
Please don't doubt its credibility. Unless you would like to go back in Azeri news archives and see output for every month (which I have done and the chart is correct), take it as is. Azerbaijan will no longer be able to afford an arms race by 2012-2014 (my estimation)