Analyzing North Waziristan

[SilentDeath]

Revenge on the Taliban, from 10,000 feet
By David Ignatius
Wednesday, February 3, 2010

In their joint operations against Taliban militants hiding in the tribal areas, the United States and Pakistan seem to have embraced a classic bit of battlefield advice: Don't get mad, get even.

Since the beginning of 2010, the United States has stepped up the pace of its Predator strikes, with strong Pakistani support. These attacks appear to have killed Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud, top lieutenant Qarimullah Hussain, who trained Taliban suicide bombers, and other key members of the insurgency, a senior administration official said Tuesday.

Though the Predators launch their Hellfire missiles from the lofty altitude of 10,000 feet, make no mistake: This is an intense and unrelenting campaign of assassination. U.S. officials hope that top al-Qaeda leaders will soon fall prey to the stepped-up drone attacks, as well.

The Predator barrage during January followed a Dec. 30 suicide attack on a CIA base in Khost, Afghanistan, that had been active in targeting the Taliban insurgents across the border. That attack killed eight CIA personnel and left the agency eager to settle scores. The agency, backed by Pakistani intelligence, has done just that.

Hakimullah, who was hit Jan. 14, had posed in a taunting video with the Jordanian double agent who carried out the Khost bombing. Hakimullah also took credit for a wave of terrorist attacks across Pakistan that traumatized that nation.

Although Pakistan publicly criticizes the drone attacks, the administration official stressed that the recent campaign "is being done in full concert and cooperation" with the Pakistani government. "We've been very pleased with the extent of the cooperation," the official said, adding that the so-called box of geographical coordinates within which the Pakistanis allow the Predators to operate was wide enough to allow attacks on targets that are "geographically dispersed."


The Pakistanis have their own heavy score to settle with the Taliban, whose bombing attacks have stretched from Peshawar to Lahore. The Pakistani spy service, the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, has been a special target, with attacks on some of its senior officers and regional headquarters. That's one reason the Pakistanis have been cooperative; they're angry and they want revenge.

"It became personal for the ISI," said the senior administration official. Enraged by the attacks on their colleagues, Pakistani officers have worked closely with the CIA to gather intelligence in the tribal areas. The Predator assault "has given the Pakistanis some breathing room," the administration official said.

U.S. officials were frustrated last year that although Islamabad blessed attacks on the Pakistani Taliban that was setting off bombs at home, the Pakistanis were reluctant to strike insurgents linked with the Afghan Taliban, such as the Haqqani network and the so-called Quetta Shura, who were killing U.S. soldiers. But this appears to have changed somewhat, as well.

The Pakistanis now recognize that there is "more of a blending together and a co-location of these groups," the senior official explained. "There's much more mingling, and to us, it demonstrates the collusion." He said the Pakistanis, too, had come to "recognize that militant organizations are operating across groups."

The improved U.S.-Pakistani cooperation extends to other activities as well. A senior Pentagon official said Tuesday that in Bajaur, a tribal area bordering Afghanistan, the two countries' military operations were "much more coordinated."

The collaboration comes despite public accounts of friction, as was the case during the recent visit by Defense Secretary Bob Gates to Pakistan. Officials from both countries said Tuesday that those reports had been overdrawn. A Pakistani military official said, for example, that a day after stories that the Pakistanis would not expand their recent offensive in South Waziristan to other tribal areas, they launched an airstrike on a target in North Waziristan.

The Pakistani Frontier Corps, which is now being trained by U.S. Special Forces, is reporting regular operations against insurgents in tribal areas such as Bajaur, Orakzai, Kurram and Khyber, a Pakistani source said Tuesday.

The tensions in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship remain, and it's unlikely that Islamabad will be trumpeting publicly the success of the drone attacks. But the slaughter of Pakistani civilians and the brazen attacks on the country's proud military have made the Pakistanis want to fight back.

"Drone attack" has become a vernacular phrase in Urdu, but it may not be spoken with quite as much vituperation today as it was a few months ago, before the suicide bombers went about their bloody work in Pakistan's cities and towns.

washingtonpost.com

 

[ssheppard]

With its biggest drone attack to date in Pakistan, the United States has sent a clear message of its renewed determination to destroy Taliban and al-Qaeda sanctuaries in the Pakistan and Afghanistan border areas.

Pakistan government officials say that nine unmanned US drones on Tuesday evening fired 19 missiles on Dattakhel village in the Degan area of North Waziristan, across from the Afghan province of Khost, killing at least 31 people and injuring many more.

Security officials who spoke to Asia Times Online say the prime target is believed to have been Afghan Taliban leader Sirajuddin Haqqani.

"The extraordinary high-profile attack through a barrage of dronestrikes was the result of a recent surge in intelligence all along the border regions," one security official told ATol on the condition of anonymity.

"The Americans have been heavily bribing [Afghan] tribal people to inform on the militants and their hideouts across the border in the Pakistani tribal areas. In the coming days, similar treatment [drone attacks] is likely to be meted out in Orakzai Agency, Khyber Agency, Bajaur and Mohmand," said the official.

According to reports that Asia Times Online has not been able to officially confirm, the US has distributed about US$12 million among Shinwari tribesmen in the six districts of the Afghan province of Nangarhar. Their brief is to provide detailed information on the Taliban's Tora Bora Brigade, whose bases stretch from the Khogyani district of Nangarhar to the Tora Bora mountains and across the border into the Tera Valley in Khyber Agency, Parachinar in Kurram Agency and Orakzai Agency. Shinwari tribesmen live on both sides of the Durand line that separates the two countries and engage in extensive trading.

A similar approach is being adopted with other Afghan tribes along the border areas specifically to target anti-Western militants.

Over the past few years, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the US Central Intelligence Agency have tried to set up a network of informers in the Pakistani tribal areas, but informants have systematically been exposed and executed by militants. Hence the use now of Afghans with ties on both sides of the border.

The drone attacks and the intelligence-gathering are a part of the US's "track two" approach that also includes an increasing military presence inside Pakistan.

On Wednesday, three American soldiers were killed and two others injured in a bomb attack in Lower Dir, bordering Bajaur Agency. The attack, in which a Pakistani soldier and three schoolgirls were also killed and hundreds injured, marks the first fatal Taliban operation against the US military inside Pakistan. The bomb went off as a security convoy traveled to a school that was celebrating its reopening after being damaged in an earlier militant attack.

The Pakistan army is heavily engaged against militants in Bajaur, which is one of the major supply lines for the Afghan Taliban in the provinces of Kunar and Nuristan. Last November, the Taliban seized virtual control of Nuristan and forced American forces to vacate their three main bases in the province.

The US Embassy in Islamabad stated that the three US soldiers killed had been deployed as trainers to the Pakistani Frontier Corps (FC). Training courses in counter-insurgency are meant to take place in Peshawar, capital of North-West Frontier Province, and in Buner in the same province.

By implication, with the soldiers being some way from their designated training centers, they could have been overseeing FC operations in Lower Dir or Bajaur Agency, where a tough battle against Taliban and al-Qaeda militants is underway - both sides have sustained heavy casualties in the past few days.

The US is operating its track two approach in conjunction with the ongoing initiative to seek dialogue with elements of the Taliban. This process has a long way to go, and the touted breakthrough of the United Nations removing five former Afghan Taliban officials from its sanctions blacklist is of no real significance as the five defected immediately after the fall of the Taliban in 2001.

The UN said the five would no longer be subject to international travel bans and a freeze on their assets. All five men were members of the Taliban government and were blacklisted in 2001. They are Abdul Wakil Mutawakil, a former foreign minister; Faiz Mohammad Faizan, a former deputy commerce minister; Shams-us-Safa, a former Foreign Ministry official; Mohammad Musa, a deputy planning minister; Abdul Hakim, a former deputy frontier affairs minister.

Of these, one of the most interesting is Abdul Hakim, who after fleeing Afghanistan held a press conference in Pakistan along with former Taliban provincial ministers at which they announced the formation of the Jamiat Khuddamul Koran. This group, with the backing of the ISI, condemned Taliban leader Mullah Omar for providing sanctuary to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

Within a few months, Jamiat Khuddamul Koran disappeared off the scene and Abdul Hakim turned up in Kabul, the Afghan capital, where he became loyal to President Hamid Karzai. Most of the other members of the group joined the Taliban in the fight against foreign troops in Afghanistan.

Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan

 

[S-2]

Slamming those HELLFIRES on board PREDATOR and REAPER just as fast as those little eager-beaver blackwater techs can get them loaded and launched.

Too sweet. It's become a veritable hornet's nest above those miserable fcuks these days.

Thanks.

 

[F.O.X]

Taliban should be Destroyed without mercy there is no doubt in it , but i think we are more then capable of doing that ourselves , Violation of our sovereignty & don't listening to the people who own that land is probably not a Good tactic though.

 

[hindustan]

Taliban should be Destroyed without mercy there is no doubt in it , but i think we are more then capable of doing that ourselves , Violation of our sovereignty & don't listening to the people who own that land is probably not a Good tactic though.

taliban cant be destroyed unless they have link with ISI and pak army

usa is not fighting groups of terriost they are fighting a thought so fisrt they have to kill there mindset

 

[manglasiva]

What else GOP can do ? Oppose in public and approve in private..

 

[fatman17]

US fires off new warning in Pakistan

Ooooooooooooo!!! - shivering in my boots!

 

[illuminatus]

I wonder how many innocent lives were lost in these indiscriminate strikes. Anyhow, someone has to pay for the sins of a few bad apples I guess. Too bad it are the innocent people of the tribal area. Not only are the bloodthirsty neocons scum of the earth, but so has Pakistan proven that it contains a fair share of sold out scum that has no regard for its own people. From Musharraf to Zardari and from top to bottom. Almost every single individual is filled with overwhelming greed. Greed with no bounds. It's all the same nasty sold out breed with not a single shred of humanity. Not a single fibre of honesty and patriotism. Pakistani sovereignty has become a joke of the first order. Anyone that believes that these missile strikes will solve suicide attacks or the problems in the border region with Afghanistan and Pakistan needs a head examination. The missile strikes are only meant to fuel more destabilisation, resentment and suffering in particular in Pakistan. The missile strikes are only exacerbating an already fragile security situation. The missile strikes are adding more fuel to a raging fire. No one seems to care though. Why should the Americans care when the Pakistanis themselves aren't showing any remorse?

 

[r0ck]

US fires off new warning in Pakistan

.........Y@wn........

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

US fires off new warning in Pakistan

can't touch this....

19 million dallar hell fire missiles wasted on mud , sheep , goats and tin roofs

can't touch this....

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Merges some of the threads on North Waziristan into a single thread.

Try and post analysis related to NW here, unless of course it is something major.

If there are any other threads you can think of that should be merged into this let me know.

 

[Xeric]

single - The Jamestown Foundation[tt_news]=36004&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=e6cf9d9e35

Pakistan’s Military Examines its Options in North Waziristan

Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 8 Issue: 5
February 4, 2010 01:28 PM Age: 2 hrs

By: Lieutenant General Talat Masood

The United States has been pressuring Pakistan for several months to extend its counterinsurgency operations to North Waziristan. The U.S. perspective is that strong militant entities, especially the Haqqani group, the Hizb-i-Islami led by Gulbuddin Hekmaytar and Taliban forces under Hafiz Gul Bahadur are using the safe haven of North Waziristan to conduct raids on American, NATO and Afghan troops. Pakistan is resisting the immediate expansion of the conflict due to several factors, one of which is that Islamabad feels its military is already overcommitted in South Waziristan, Swat and Malakand and needs time to consolidate the gains it has achieved in these places before undertaking any further operations. More than 150,000 military and paramilitary forces are currently deployed in the tribal agencies and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) in order to clear pockets of resistance, prevent the recurrence of militant attacks, and hold the territory that has been cleared until it stabilizes. The military has claimed the capture and killing of hundreds of militants during the operations, but the Taliban’s top leadership and many hard-core militants managed to escape in thickly forested areas or flee to adjoining tribal agencies. Conditions in Bajaur and Momand remain fairly volatile and clashes between security forces and militants are frequently reported. Remote areas of South Waziristan close to the border with North Waziristan continue to provide sanctuary to the Taliban and other militant entities that are now the target of U.S. drones.

Prioritizing North Waziristan

In the current operational environment, North Waziristan is not an immediate priority for Pakistan’s army. The militant entities in this area are not hostile toward Pakistan. It is generally believed that there is a tacit understanding that the Pakistan Army will not launch an operation if the tribes and militant groups stay neutral while operations against the Mahsud tribes and stabilization efforts continue in South Waziristan. The militant groups have not kept entirely to their undertaking and have given refuge to both al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders of South Waziristan. Another factor inhibiting a future offensive is the possibility of all the tribes uniting against the Pakistan Army in the event it launched an operation in North Waziristan. This would bring the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban closer, posing a formidable threat to regional security. The Taliban in North Waziristan number anywhere from 10,000 to 12,000 fighters and they have the advantage of local terrain that is very inhospitable to forces from other parts of the country. The local Taliban in North Waziristan have support from a cross-section of people. Those who oppose them fear retaliation as the government’s writ is practically non-existent in the region.

North Waziristan has been a victim of gross neglect by successive governments. Pakistan’s participation in the Afghan anti-communist jihad, the subsequent abandonment of the region by the United States and the international community and finally the impact of the events of 9/11 have totally destroyed the social, tribal and administrative structure of the area, encouraging the Taliban to fill the vacuum. They are in fact running a parallel administration, providing justice in accordance with their harsh interpretation of Islam and maintaining security by imposing ruthless measures. The Haqqani Network and other groups have militias of 3,000 to 4,000 fighters and could draw more from the adjoining provinces of Afghanistan if Islamabad launches a military operation. Militants fleeing from South Waziristan and other parts of the tribal agencies have also sought refuge in the area.

Islamabad does not want to antagonize the Afghan Taliban and other militant groups residing in North Waziristan, knowing that it will have to deal with them once American and NATO forces leave. The new U.S. strategy on Afghanistan already envisages a withdrawal of forces commencing in 18 months and there is talk of bringing the reconcilable Taliban to the negotiating table. The other Coalition contributors have no intention to remain in Afghanistan any longer than necessary. In such unpredictable conditions, Pakistan would like to keep its options open and watch closely how U.S. policy and the military situation evolve.

The Indian Equation

The Indian factor is crucial to the strategic calculus Pakistan uses in formulating policy on Afghanistan and the Taliban. With tensions high since the Mumbai terrorist attack and several provocative statements by Indian military and political leaders, Pakistan finds it difficult to relocate its forces from its eastern Indian border west to the Afghanistan border. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ statement in New Delhi that India’s patience would be exhausted in the event of another terrorist attack on India by jihadi groups has given additional reason to be more circumspect in shifting forces (The Hindu, January 20).

A further inhibiting factor in the extension of military operation in North Waziristan is the danger that it could trigger a fresh wave of suicide attacks in many parts of Pakistan, as was experienced during military operations in Swat and more recently in South Waziristan. The high human and financial cost is another important consideration. Pakistan has lost more than 2,000 men from its security forces and thousands of civilians in its fight against militants. The financial cost of insurgency is already taking its toll, with the defense budget exceeding the allocated amount by over 35 % while demands for more money, weapons and equipment are rising. It is estimated that Pakistan has suffered a loss of nearly $28 billion for being a front line state in the fight against militants. [1] When U.S. assistance is withheld due to bureaucratic hurdles it compounds Pakistan’s ongoing financial crisis.

A recent statement by Army spokesperson General Athar Abbas made it clear that the army has no intention of launching a major military operation for the next six to twelve months as it is already over-committed and busy consolidating its position in the areas of Swat, Malakand and South Waziristan (Dawn [Karachi], January 22). This must have come as a rude shock to the U.S. military commanders who have been pressing Pakistan’s military to expand its area of operations to North Waziristan. The United States wants Pakistan’s army to take on the Haqqani Network, which has close ties to Arab militants and is alleged to be involved in a number of deadly suicide attacks, including the recent suicide bombing of the CIA station in Khost province by a Jordanian triple agent (see Terrorism Monitor, January 28).

The Need for Stabilization and Consolidation

The absence of a military operation in the near future means that the frequency of drone attacks on North Waziristan will continue or even intensify. It gives rise to considerable local resentment and sharpens anti-American sentiment while presenting a moral and political dilemma for the government, notwithstanding its tactical advantage.

There is no doubt that operations in Swat, Malakand and South Waziristan have been largely successful, but there are pockets of these areas still in the hands of the militants, though the leadership has fled into other tribal agencies, principally North Waziristan, Orakzai and Momand.

It is estimated that there are roughly 100 hard-core al-Qaeda operatives and about 2,000 auxiliary members and supporters. In the frontier region, Uzbeks constitute the largest group among al-Qaeda’s foreign mujahideen, with Arabs, Uighurs, Tajiks and a few individuals from African countries constituting the rest. Nearly a dozen of the mainly Arab hard-core al-Qaeda have been killed or captured in the last few months.

Rebuilding Local Administrations

The civilian administration has yet to be made fully functional in Malakand division and in South Waziristan. Tribes opposed to the Taliban are being mobilized to take care of local security and support the government’s efforts in establishing an administrative structure commensurate with tribal traditions. This may take time but is a very critical part of the operation. Several pro- government leaders opposed to the Taliban have been killed, which has been demoralizing for pro-government tribes and groups. Furthermore, there has been a large internal displacement of people during the military operations. From South Waziristan alone, nearly 300,000 persons were displaced and remain either in camps or as guests in adjoining settled areas. Hospitable conditions need to be created so these people will not fall prey to the machinations of the Taliban when they return. There is already considerable resentment among them that they were caught in the crossfire of the military and Taliban.

It is encouraging, however, that the fight against militancy is being pursued more enthusiastically now than it was during President Musharraf’s rule. With the support of the civilian government, Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has shown the determination and will to seriously engage in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations according to the government’s priorities.

Conclusion

The government is currently unprepared to negotiate with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leadership. At this stage it aims at ruthlessly pursuing the leaders and their groups. However, it is important to understand that the TTP is a loose network of motley and disparate groups that have coalesced to leverage their impact but have little in common. In South Waziristan, the heartland of the resistance, the Taliban could be characterized as ideologically motivated. In North Waziristan the situation is similar. In Khyber Agency, however, criminals, smugglers and the drug mafia have worn the mantle of the Taliban to challenge the authority of the state.

In Khurram Agency sectarian groups are fighting for turf and in Orakzai and Bajaur a mix of ideology and criminality acts as an incentive for insurgency. These groups will continue to cause trouble for quite a while. However, if the government and the military remain steadfast and pursue the militant leaders and their groups vigorously according to a well-conceived plan involving both military and other elements of national power, there are good prospects for pacifying the area in two to three years. Much, of course, will depend on how the situation unfolds in Afghanistan and the extent of international support to Pakistan.


Notes:

1. According to economist Shahid Hasan Siddiqui, Pakistan has spent $40 billion on the war on terrorism while being compensated only $12 billion by the United States. See Pakistan German Business Forum, Seminar on Post Budget Implications on Business by PGBF, February 1, Pakistan German Business Forum ).

 

[Xeric]

Sugarcoat?

or

Bakra being allowed water?!

 

[fatman17]

^the analysis is fairly clear!

 

[S-2]

K,

"Pakistan’s participation in the Afghan anti-communist jihad, the subsequent abandonment of the region by the United States and the international community and finally the impact of the events of 9/11 have totally destroyed the social, tribal and administrative structure of the area, encouraging the Taliban to fill the vacuum."

It reads real nice but don't you think that the wholesale slaughter of the tribal maliks by the taliban and A.Q. in a sheerly brutal local power struggle did more by itself to destroy "...the social, tribal, and administrative structure..." than all the rest combined?

The region survived nicely until post-9/11 when these boys strolled in from Afghanistan. They came. They saw. They conquered.

"...They are in fact running a parallel administration, providing justice in accordance with their harsh interpretation of Islam and maintaining security by imposing ruthless measures."

No kidding. That's what the taliban did in Afghanistan. Why's this surprising everybody in Pakistan? Modus operandi, no?

"Islamabad does not want to antagonize the Afghan Taliban and other militant groups residing in North Waziristan, knowing that it will have to deal with them once American and NATO forces leave."

Soooo, according to the author it has nothing to do with "overstretched commitments", eh? BTW, you're ALREADY dealing with them. Ask the families of those in FATA who've seen their fathers and grandfathers murdered in the hundreds to seize power. Do they matter?

"Pakistan would like to keep its options open and watch closely how U.S. policy and the military situation evolve."

So if we stayed forever, would you watch forever?

How long is long enough to convince Pakistan that we're there? A decade evidently hasn't been enough to assuage Pakistan of our commitment. A century maybe? Sh!t.

Should we suggest to this author America would like to keep ITS OPTIONS open and consider Pakistan an enemy for harboring our enemies? Seems logical to me.

"A further inhibiting factor in the extension of military operation in North Waziristan is the danger that it could trigger a fresh wave of suicide attacks in many parts of Pakistan..."

Well, thank the Lord for forebearance keeping those down the street in Karachi and up in Dir safe from such possibilities. I can imagine the retort already-if we'd only not use drones to protect our forces and afghan civilians from being human punching bags for Haqqani, Bahadur, Hekmatyar, et al it would be so much easier. Then there'd be no rationale to attack Pakistani civilians with suicide bombers. Afterall, the taliban are only replying in the only manner they know how.

Then again, you'd be happy to unleash the same on the taliban if YOU had PREDATOR instead of America? No attacks would come from that though? Actually, reading this guy I've no reason to believe giving the GoP PREDATOR would make a difference. You'd not use it to prosecute these men. That seems perfectly clear.

I'm sorry. I can't go with this guy. His circular loop rationales smell of cheap justification to turn these beasts on the afghans just as soon as we go and can't help but make me convinced that your senior strategic thinkers wish to dominate Afghanistan by brute taliban force and could give a whit for the misery that means despite having seen it first-hand in SWAT.

I can barely contain my disdain.

Thanks.