Analysis: PAF's Fighter Modernization Roadmap (Part-1)

[araz]

Ok points which i think needs to be clear ..

1. we have +/- 80 F-16's( All Blocks ) , adding these 8 will be make it around 85-86 ... so how we are talking about the original plan of getting 110 F-16 ? isn't just another pipe dream .. or we are assuming everything will be according to our plans ? we order and US sell , that's not the case . The Change in US Govt in this yeah will also effect their South Asia Policy which also effect the sell of any high end fighter to Pakistan . Indian will not swallow that easily .. Indians got more influence and money to buy more congressman .. simple and short ? how are we looking for 110 F-16 by 2020 when we are around 20-25 Planes short . ?

2. By 2020 if we retire our Mirage III/5 and F-7's that means almost half of our fleet is gone... and with current rate we are producing the JF's and as we are looking for some export Orders , how we are going to fill this gap ? are we looking to operate only two kinds of Jets ? JF and F-16 .. for a enemy like India is it sensible to limit our capabilities with just 2 platforms while our enemy enjoys various Fighter , each having a different role .. E.g , Su-30 ( Air Superiority Fighter ) , Mig-29 ( Anti-Ship and Naval ) , Mirage 2000 ( Deep and precision Air Strikes ) and Rafale ( as medium weight fighter with highly Advance EW Suites . All these make a scary Combination to tackle with just 2 platforms .. which is also lesser in numbers with no LRSAM to support them even within our Air Space .

3. J-10's as Article say's its not adding anything Extra in our Capabilities of JF's but J-10's can still be heavily modified with extra Gadgets . we can't just built our strategy on Quality , sometimes Quantity matters .

Possible Solutions .

1. Even if we assume everything goes Fine between US and Pakistan ( which i doubt ), still we can just add a follow up order of 10 more F-16 block 52+ that will make 36 Block 52's . of course the time line of delivery of these 8 and later 10 birds will drag us to close to 2020's and than again we will be close to retirement of our half of fleets .Possible solution to reach the 110 mark for F-16's be placing Orders , and do it fast . if by 2018 we are able to get those remaining 10 F-16's from US we can immediately order 18 more ( block 52's ) , in the upcoming 2 years mark .
than will leave us with 36 + 18 = 54 Block 52's and total F-16's to 84+10+18= 112 boom ..
the wish list may sound unrealistic but i see no other ways to reach the mark of 110 by 2020 .

2. Why not Add another 4++ Fighter ? like 1-2 Sq of Su-35's ? even 1 sq of su-35 with certain modifications can make a difference . they can be Armed with BVR's and Anti-ship Missiles to completely dedicate it for Naval Operations or deep Strikes ,which can also be done by F-16. or we can do some back door Diplomacy here to lift the ban on Chinese J-series J-11's , J-16's whatever suites PAF well .in that case, Chinese can be our front man so Indian pressure will be released . Indian moving towards to final deal of Rafale, it will surely effect Russian's , and in order to keep Indian's in their league they can offer us Su-35 or life bans of J-series . its just how we are going to play our cards .

3. people who have better knowledge on J-10's can give a better solution for J-10's .

@MastanKhan @araz @Windjammer @Blue Marlin @Quwa @Horus @Oscar ( if he is not mad at me )

As to F16s we will certainly get second hand platforms which will bulk up numbers. Rather than newer platforms I would get older platforms and more BVRS.
I would look very carefully at the 3rd -4th block of JFT. It maybe that it may have to be rejigged to have more missiles and better EW suite for better effect. However due to cost constraints the numbers game is anyones guess. My own suspicion is that we will still be seeing PGs and some M3/ M5s in various roles till 2022 depending on how the finances look. The ask is just too big in the time required. However the capability leap would certainly make up for it.
The crunch to PAF acquisition is how quickly the J31 matures. I see it as our next bomb truck/stealth fighter /long range attack fighter . Much as I would love to see SU 35 in PAF the only way it will happen is if the J31 gets significantly delayed till 2030. Whether PAF ditches everything and goes for the J20 rather than SU series and whether the Chinese play ball with us are unknown factors.
A

 

[mzeeshanfahd]

We need a third 4.5th Generation platform and we have no many options. We have to go for a Fighter Jet from Europe or Russia. After that focus on J-31 development

aray yarr ...... koi kehta kun nahi m2k ai ga ......

 

[Quwa]

As to F16s we will certainly get second hand platforms which will bulk up numbers. Rather than newer platforms I would get older platforms and more BVRS.
I would look very carefully at the 3rd -4th block of JFT. It maybe that it may have to be rejigged to have more missiles and better EW suite for better effect. However due to cost constraints the numbers game is anyones guess. My own suspicion is that we will still be seeing PGs and some M3/ M5s in various roles till 2022 depending on how the finances look. The ask is just too big in the time required. However the capability leap would certainly make up for it.
The crunch to PAF acquisition is how quickly the J31 matures. I see it as our next bomb truck/stealth fighter /long range attack fighter . Much as I would love to see SU 35 in PAF the only way it will happen is if the J31 gets significantly delayed till 2030. Whether PAF ditches everything and goes for the J20 rather than SU series and whether the Chinese play ball with us are unknown factors.
A

These days the Chinese are pretty serious about what they label as "export" goods. In other words, if it isn't being marketed as an export good, chances are it won't be made available for export, exceptions notwithstanding. Hence if the PAF is interested in a Chinese 5th gen plane, it will have to take a look at the FC-31. If the FC-31 comes to fruition, then it would be an excellent medium-weight platform for the future.

The PAF should get AVIC to make it a swing-role fighter, i.e. a platform that can switch between being a capable multi-role fighter minus stealth to a stealth-focused strike platform.

In other words, when it comes time to defend our air space, the fighter's external hardpoints should be loaded with missiles, and stealth be-damned, it should be able to maneuver, climb, etc. However, for strike missions where as much radar and electronic silence as possible is required, the PAF should have something that could carry a decent internal payload.

Basically, the FC-31 doesn't need to be a solution for every problem. It just needs to be highly configurable and able to adapt to a specific mission profile.

 

[_NOBODY_]

Can you gentlemen kindly tell me that what is the role of FC-31 and if PAF inducts it(IN SAH ALLAH) then for what purpose will PAF use it for.
@Horus @Quwa @Bratva @araz @HRK @WebMaster @Tipu7 @The Eagle @hussain0216

 

[RAMPAGE]

Regarding the J-10. It's important to understand that neither the J-10B or J-10C have been cleared for export, even to the PAF. This was plainly stated by Alan Warnes and was actually demonstrated, very clearly, during the Singapore Air Show. The only J-10 variant available for sale is the J-10A, i.e. the first version.

With that in mind, how much of a jump would the J-10A offer over the existing F-16s? Think about it from the following perspective. We are asking the PAF to raise an entirely new infrastructure and maintenance channel, from engine to electronics to airframe, for the J-10. Based on that, the PAF would not be able to induct an initial batch of more than two squadrons.

So, for spending all that money for 2 squadrons, what are we getting? It's just another medium weight fighter that will add onto our existing medium weight fighters, i.e. F-16. The issue isn't sanctions, for that we have JF-17, which is taking up a huge proportion of the PAF's fighter budget. The issue is cost-benefit. How much benefit are you getting from 28-36 J-10s after paying a significant amount of money and time for inducting a new fighter type? What does the J-10 (in small initial numbers) bring over the JF-17 and F-16 that justifies such a cost?

The PAF wants the latest technology, but it's looking to bring them via the JF-17 Block-III (and future versions). This is where the vast majority of the PAF's funds are actually going, it isn't really sparing that much for the F-16s. The main reason why the F-16s are even on the table is because the PAF has the infrastructure to smoothly induct them, and that the U.S. is willing to partially subsidize them.

PAF has other reasons for not going for J-10.

I can tell you that PAF is finding it hard to do business with the Chinese due to bad customer support on their part. Unfortunately this situation is also having a bad effect on the the JF-17 program.

 

[Quwa]

PAF has other reasons for not going for J-10.

I can tell you that PAF is finding it hard to do business with the Chinese due to bad customer support on their part. Unfortunately this situation is also having a bad effect on the the JF-17 program.

As a general point, this is cause for bringing JF-17 airframe production to 100% in Pakistan, and in time, development (i.e. future blocks) as well. At least the PAF is talking to Klimov directly.

 

[Dalit]

PAF has other reasons for not going for J-10.

I can tell you that PAF is finding it hard to do business with the Chinese due to bad customer support on their part. Unfortunately this situation is also having a bad effect on the the JF-17 program.

Do you have a proper source to back that up because this doesn't make any sense.

The only reason for not opting for the J-10 is a lack of finance.

 

[RAMPAGE]

Do you have a proper source to back that up because this doesn't make any sense.

I do but I am not at liberty to disclose them. I guess you'll have to take my word for it.

Although, I will say that I am fairly confident that both parties will be able to work it out.

 

[Bratva]

I do but I am not at liberty to disclose them. I guess you'll have to take my word for it.

Although, I will say that I am fairly confident that both parties will be able to work it out.

Bad customer support is due to pressure on chinese side to mass produce J-series for chinese AF neglecting the needs of foreign customers.I remember reading an article from china where they were proud in saying they had other commitments to fulfil yet they produce Jf-17 parts (fuselage) and met the deadline on time.

 

[RAMPAGE]

Bad customer support is due to pressure on chinese side to mass produce J-series for chinese AF neglecting the needs of foreign customers.I remember reading an article from china where they were proud in saying they had other commitments to fulfil yet they produce Jf-17 parts (fuselage) and met the deadline on time.

They can deliver on time alright but at what price is the question.

 

[Dil Pakistan]

On an associated note, related to this thread; UAE airforce has 79 F-16 Block 60 and also plenty of Mirage 2000-9.

Both are more than potent and PAF knows both jets inside out.

Can we cosy up with them and ask USA / France to support this deal?

They can provide a (relatively) cheap but powerful punch.

 

[Zarvan]

If the PAF is concerned about numbers, it'll just ramp up JF-17 production and add more used F-16s. Now as to why it'll depend on just two platforms, why is this surprising? A single modern platform is capable of taking on a wide range of roles, e.g. the JF-17 is being equipped with AShM, ARM, SOW, and ALCM. As long as the platform is capable of utilizing modern electronics and munitions, it is fine. Moreover, the reduction in aircraft types is a normal phenomenon, and a good one since it enables the PAF to save costs on maintenance and infrastructure.

As for Su-35. That is going to depend on Pakistan's structural economic position in the next several years. If the proportion allocated to debt servicing in the fiscal budget falls in the next several years, then Russia will feel more comfortable extending a line of credit or financing plan to Pakistan.

J-31 is an experimental program, the real 5th gen system is FC-31. AVIC is looking for a partner to help finance the development of the fighter, and the PAF is probably considering it. If anything, this would be the jet Pakistan would produce after the JF-17, but from the 2030s...

Sir 3rd 4.5th Generation platform is coming and you will hear about it within a year

 

[SQ8]

Ok points which i think needs to be clear ..

1. we have +/- 80 F-16's( All Blocks ) , adding these 8 will be make it around 85-86 ... so how we are talking about the original plan of getting 110 F-16 ? isn't just another pipe dream .. or we are assuming everything will be according to our plans ? we order and US sell , that's not the case . The Change in US Govt in this yeah will also effect their South Asia Policy which also effect the sell of any high end fighter to Pakistan . Indian will not swallow that easily .. Indians got more influence and money to buy more congressman .. simple and short ? how are we looking for 110 F-16 by 2020 when we are around 20-25 Planes short . ?

2. By 2020 if we retire our Mirage III/5 and F-7's that means almost half of our fleet is gone... and with current rate we are producing the JF's and as we are looking for some export Orders , how we are going to fill this gap ? are we looking to operate only two kinds of Jets ? JF and F-16 .. for a enemy like India is it sensible to limit our capabilities with just 2 platforms while our enemy enjoys various Fighter , each having a different role .. E.g , Su-30 ( Air Superiority Fighter ) , Mig-29 ( Anti-Ship and Naval ) , Mirage 2000 ( Deep and precision Air Strikes ) and Rafale ( as medium weight fighter with highly Advance EW Suites . All these make a scary Combination to tackle with just 2 platforms .. which is also lesser in numbers with no LRSAM to support them even within our Air Space .

3. J-10's as Article say's its not adding anything Extra in our Capabilities of JF's but J-10's can still be heavily modified with extra Gadgets . we can't just built our strategy on Quality , sometimes Quantity matters .

Possible Solutions .

1. Even if we assume everything goes Fine between US and Pakistan ( which i doubt ), still we can just add a follow up order of 10 more F-16 block 52+ that will make 36 Block 52's . of course the time line of delivery of these 8 and later 10 birds will drag us to close to 2020's and than again we will be close to retirement of our half of fleets .Possible solution to reach the 110 mark for F-16's be placing Orders , and do it fast . if by 2018 we are able to get those remaining 10 F-16's from US we can immediately order 18 more ( block 52's ) , in the upcoming 2 years mark .
than will leave us with 36 + 18 = 54 Block 52's and total F-16's to 84+10+18= 112 boom ..
the wish list may sound unrealistic but i see no other ways to reach the mark of 110 by 2020 .

2. Why not Add another 4++ Fighter ? like 1-2 Sq of Su-35's ? even 1 sq of su-35 with certain modifications can make a difference . they can be Armed with BVR's and Anti-ship Missiles to completely dedicate it for Naval Operations or deep Strikes ,which can also be done by F-16. or we can do some back door Diplomacy here to lift the ban on Chinese J-series J-11's , J-16's whatever suites PAF well .in that case, Chinese can be our front man so Indian pressure will be released . Indian moving towards to final deal of Rafale, it will surely effect Russian's , and in order to keep Indian's in their league they can offer us Su-35 or life bans of J-series . its just how we are going to play our cards .

3. people who have better knowledge on J-10's can give a better solution for J-10's .

@MastanKhan @araz @Windjammer @Blue Marlin @Quwa @Horus @Oscar ( if he is not mad at me )

1. As per PAF preset ASR (Air Staff requirement), we were ALWAYS going to get 80 F-16s and 150 JF-17s per revised requirement thanks to PPP rape of Pakistan. Any disputes with the figure to be taken up with the person on the left in this picture who is now leading the program

2. A third platform is being looked into which is going to be 5th Gen regardless. Current planned induction is 2025 and beyond. Also from same gentleman.

3. The J-10 was on the cards with the booming economy pre PPP government but is now shelved.

Any issues with the PAF should first be directed at damad-e-Bhutto.

I do not get emotional on PDF simply because at the end it is all 1001010101 and none of it matters.

I do however do a lot of pretend emotion and troll to piss people off because its too much fun.

 

[Khafee]

On an associated note, related to this thread; UAE airforce has 79 F-16 Block 60 and also plenty of Mirage 2000-9.

Both are more than potent and PAF knows both jets inside out.

Can we cosy up with them and ask USA / France to support this deal?

They can provide a (relatively) cheap but powerful punch.

And what do you suggest we replace them with, Air tractors?

 

[omegalamba7XL9]

Part 1: An analysis of the Pakistan Air Force’s decision to focus on F-16s

22 February 2016

By Bilal Khan

A recent episode of ‘Defence and Diplomacy’, a policy news and analysis show hosted by retired Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Group Captain Sultan Hali, offered a number of interesting insights into the PAF’s apparent modernization roadmap, particularly with regards to its fighter fleet. This analysis will touch upon a few key points raised in the episode (which also included retired Air Marshals Shahid Lateef and Yousuf Chaudhry), especially in regards to the PAF’s rationale for pursuing the F-16 as well as its reluctance to induct a comparable alternative, such as the Chengdu FC-20 (i.e. J-10).

For the foreseeable future, the PAF will center its fighter acquisition plans on the JF-17 and F-16. Before continuing into how the PAF would pursue each fighter, it is important to understand the driving forces behind the PAF’s decision. To put it frankly, the main issue is Pakistan’s troubled economy. In other words, the PAF has very limited financial flexibility to depend on in order to replace its heavily aged fighters, i.e. the Dassault Mirage III/5 and Chengdu F-7P. The next several years will be critical for the PAF as it intends to phase-out a significant number of its legacy fighters by 2020.

In terms of the F-16, the PAF is currently looking to procure eight new F-16C/D Block-52+ from the U.S. It is important to note that the PAF is hoping to acquire these fighters with considerable Foreign Military Financing (FMF) support. In other words, it expects the U.S. to subsidize nearly half of the total cost (which is $700 million U.S.). If acquired, this batch would raise the PAF’s total F-16 fleet to 84 aircraft: 26 F-16C/D Block-52+, 45 F-16A/B MLU [Mid-Life-Update], and 13 F-16A/B ADF (Air Defence Fighter).

Through a mix of new-built and used aircraft, the PAF is probably looking to expand the F-16 fleet to 110, which it had originally planned for in the late 1980s, before the U.S. placed sanctions on Pakistan over the latter’s nuclear weapons program. Additional new-built F-16s could be acquired on an incremental and gradual basis whereby the PAF orders numerous small batches over a period of several years. If future acquisitions were to cost in the realm of $350 million U.S. per-order (especially with FMF support), the PAF could succeed in building a relatively sizable Block-52+ fleet by 2020.

The PAF may also pursue used F-16s from the U.S. through the Excess Defence Articles (EDA) program, which would enable it to buy airframes for very cheaply. It could also speak to other air forces, just as it did with Jordan in 2013-2014. It could opt to push these F-16s through a service-life extension program (SLEP), which would add life to their aged airframes. It might also consider upgrading them with a radar and avionics package identical to that found on its existing Block-52+ and MLUs.

However, the cost of replenishing and upgrading these F-16s ($30-35 million U.S. per unit) would basically amount to the cost of a new-built JF-17. The PAF could ultimately acquire used airframes without upgrading them, which would enable it to quickly replace outgoing F-7s and Mirages. In fact, a non-upgraded F-16 would be a substantial upgrade over old F-7 units involved in basic air defence duties (i.e. without the use of beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles or BVRAAM).

In terms of capability, the PAF’s F-16s are equipped for precision-strikeas well as air-to-air warfare. The PAF has 500 AIM-120C5 BVRAAMs, Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), and Paveway Guided Bomb Units (GBU) in its inventory. Unfortunately, despite having its F-16s equipped with the Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS), a helmet-mounted display and sight system (HMD/S), it has not yet acquired the AIM-9X high off-boresight (HOBS) within-visual-range air-to-air missile (WVRAAM). At present, the F-16’s WVRAAM capabilities are centered on the AIM-9M-8/9, which is a fairly capable current-generation all-aspect missile. Moreover, the PAF’s F-16s lack stand-off munitions and anti-ship missiles.

Since the PAF intends to continue procuring additional F-16s, especially new-built fighters such as the Block-52+, it is imperative that it secure these munitions. The main inhibitor would be the U.S., which will avoid tipping the balance of air warfare capabilities between India and Pakistan in Pakistan’s favour. That said, this technology is making into Pakistan via the JF-17, which – by Block-III – will be equipped with a HOBS AAM (and it is already being integrated with various stand-off munitions). The release of the AIM-9X, AGM-154 JSOW and AGM-84L Harpoon Block-II ought to be on the PAF’s roadmap.

With these limitations and issues in mind, one may ask why the PAF is not looking at the Chengdu FC-20 (i.e. J-10), especially as an alternative to the F-16. The reasoning is quite simple. If the PAF were to procure the J-10, it would simply be acquiring another medium-weight fighter. In other words, its inclusion does not necessarily add to the PAF’s existing capabilities, at least in a significant enough way to warrant the induction of an entirely new platform. Yes, the J-10 would offer additional range, payload, and capability boosts (e.g. radar output) compared to the JF-17, but are these advantages significant enough to warrant the costs of introducing a completely new maintenance channel, especially for what will inevitably be a relatively small number of aircraft (i.e. two squadrons)? It will not.

If this is the case, one might ask why the PAF is focusing on the F-16 at all, why not double-down on the JF-17? The question assumes that the PAF is not doubling down on the JF-17. At this point, the PAF is not even looking to buy a significant number of new-built F-16s. It only has eight aircraft on the table, and that too with substantial financial support from the U.S. If one were to consider what is in store for the JF-17 Block-III, then it would be evident that much of the PAF’s fighter budget is in fact going towards the development and induction of the JF-17.

Beyond the JF-17, the PAF has scarcely little financial flexibility. If it were not for FMF, it is unlikely the PAF would even procure the new F-16s. However, the addition of these new F-16s will add to its existing fleet, which will enable the PAF to exploit its existing maintenance infrastructure as well as build its fleet, until such time that a true next-generation fighter is available. Next week, we will take a look at that as well as review the JF-17’s role as the future backbone fighter.

Analysis: Pakistan’s Fighter Modernization Roadmap (Part-1)

@Horus

Thanks for a well written info on future plans of PAF.
PAF in my humble opinion is selling us dreams and fairy tales.They should've gone for J 10s in 2005-06 by now we would be close to 50 plus J10s with option of 2 squadrons available in case of emergency.Good luck PAF in doing the same with F 16s and JF 17s. We could've been taking delivery of 8 units jf 17 block 2 or 3 and 4 to 6 units J 10s per year therefore filling 2 holes and f16s as a bonus. Now with this mindset we would be looking at 70 odd J10s, 70 odd JF 17 block 2/3 and 90 odd F 16s by 2020. With the way things are going i think we will be looking at maybe 100 JF17s and 100 F16ss leaving us short of ateast 3 squadrons of potent war machines. F16s and more f16s and more f16s wowand this F16 never let this airforce move on. They built Jf 17 in the image of f16s there is just nothing else on the planet that can match f16s for PAF. Are we planning on fighting enemy airforce on our skies?