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Analysis: PAF's Fighter Modernization Roadmap (Part-1)

Our F-16 policy seems to be the making of another Mirage story, they will eventually become a major headache to the airforce. As far as India is concerned, the F-16 are no longer relevant to their role as our primary strike option, with India's Su-30MKI and Rafale acquisition, barring the Block 52s. We need something significantly better to take the regional balance of power back to our favour, at least in technologically if not numerically.
 
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1. As per PAF preset ASR (Air Staff requirement), we were ALWAYS going to get 80 F-16s and 150 JF-17s per revised requirement thanks to PPP rape of Pakistan. Any disputes with the figure to be taken up with the person on the left in this picture who is now leading the program
jf-17-16-large.jpg



2. A third platform is being looked into which is going to be 5th Gen regardless. Current planned induction is 2025 and beyond. Also from same gentleman.

3. The J-10 was on the cards with the booming economy pre PPP government but is now shelved.

Any issues with the PAF should first be directed at damad-e-Bhutto.

I do not get emotional on PDF simply because at the end it is all 1001010101 and none of it matters.

i thought they were getting 250 jf-17's to replace the j-7 and the mirages? that means the block 3 would be the last block?

yes i think we all know that a 5th gen option is being looked at as stated in the interview from defence and diplomacy.
now providing the 2025 "planned induction" you stated is correct, then that year matches the 2025 induction of the tai tfx. and idea of pac joining in an like what Indonesia is doing with the kfx. but get some goodies like tech of the gan based aesa's which can be used else where.

I do however do a lot of pretend emotion and troll to piss people off because its too much fun.
good for you:
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If the PAF is concerned about numbers, it'll just ramp up JF-17 production and add more used F-16s. Now as to why it'll depend on just two platforms, why is this surprising? A single modern platform is capable of taking on a wide range of roles, e.g. the JF-17 is being equipped with AShM, ARM, SOW, and ALCM. As long as the platform is capable of utilizing modern electronics and munitions, it is fine. Moreover, the reduction in aircraft types is a normal phenomenon, and a good one since it enables the PAF to save costs on maintenance and infrastructure.

As for Su-35. That is going to depend on Pakistan's structural economic position in the next several years. If the proportion allocated to debt servicing in the fiscal budget falls in the next several years, then Russia will feel more comfortable extending a line of credit or financing plan to Pakistan.

J-31 is an experimental program, the real 5th gen system is FC-31. AVIC is looking for a partner to help finance the development of the fighter, and the PAF is probably considering it. If anything, this would be the jet Pakistan would produce after the JF-17, but from the 2030s...

It's not a surprise that one platform to take many roles but it might need some heavy modifications right ? JF is light weight what we are looking at it is to replace our F-7 interceptor and Mirage III/5 deep strike , and you know better that both roles required different configuration right ?

by 2025 our F-16 old block will also be pretty old , and their retirement time will be close, FC-31 is still a decade a head .. there might be some sort of backup plan PAF will be looking ?
maybe add JF block 3 in numbers to make it like 200-250 ?
 
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Ireesponsible miss use of funds if PAF buying old F 16 even with no upgrades it is useless because in that sum of old F 16 with MLU we can get New J 10 with good range we could have ordered J 10 in mushy era rather than going for F 16 we could have built on them

If u see and count since 2006 we got aroung 30 F 16 out of these 18 are new and 12 are old and if u total the amount of these we could have bought 40 J 10 in same amount and all 40 would have been new and superior to F 16 in all termd


JF 17 programme started due to US samction on F 16 now when thunder is armed why going back
 
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It's not a surprise that one platform to take many roles but it might need some heavy modifications right ? JF is light weight what we are looking at it is to replace our F-7 interceptor and Mirage III/5 deep strike , and you know better that both roles required different configuration right ?

by 2025 our F-16 old block will also be pretty old , and their retirement time will be close, FC-31 is still a decade a head .. there might be some sort of backup plan PAF will be looking ?
maybe add JF block 3 in numbers to make it like 200-250 ?
would that not make sense 250 jf-17's to replace the j7's and the mirages and what ever is left over can be replaced with more of the 5th gen fighters.
 
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would that not make sense 250 jf-17's to replace the j7's and the mirages and what ever is left over can be replaced with more of the 5th gen fighters.

well if i accept the Seniors opinion here, 5th Generation is still a decade ahead ..
80 -100 F-16 and 150 JF , means 250 light and medium role fighters .
that won't be enough for PAF sized Air force ..

1. As per PAF preset ASR (Air Staff requirement), we were ALWAYS going to get 80 F-16s and 150 JF-17s per revised requirement thanks to PPP rape of Pakistan. Any disputes with the figure to be taken up with the person on the left in this picture who is now leading the program

80 F-16 till 2025 ? even after retiring half of fleet ? you think it will be wise ? leaving PAF with just 250 BVR capable fighters ? by 2025 , as we have no specific date of 5th Gen Chinese jet ..
 
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well if i accept the Seniors opinion here, 5th Generation is still a decade ahead ..
80 -100 F-16 and 150 JF , means 250 light and medium role fighters .
that won't be enough for PAF sized Air force ..
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i meant to say 250 jf-17's and about 80 ish f16's,
and however many 5th gen fighters they want/need.
 
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i meant to say 250 jf-17's and about 80 ish f16's,
and however many 5th gen fighters they want/need.

even if they are planning to increase the numbers to 250, that means at least 100 JF's will highly be modified or customized for different roles .
 
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It's not a surprise that one platform to take many roles but it might need some heavy modifications right ? JF is light weight what we are looking at it is to replace our F-7 interceptor and Mirage III/5 deep strike , and you know better that both roles required different configuration right ?

by 2025 our F-16 old block will also be pretty old , and their retirement time will be close, FC-31 is still a decade a head .. there might be some sort of backup plan PAF will be looking ?
maybe add JF block 3 in numbers to make it like 200-250 ?
The payload capacity of the Mirage III is only marginally higher than that of the JF-17, and the respective ferry ranges of both fighters are very close. In other words, the JF-17 is no less of a strike fighter than the Mirage III. Yes, for its time the Mirage III was an industry fighter-bomber, but in today's age, its core dimensions are very similar to that of modern light/medium-weight fighters, such as the JF-17. Granted, the JF-17 would not be a massive improvement over the Mirage (in terms of range and payload), but it wouldn't be a step backwards either. For a serious improvement in strike, the FC-31 - with the internal weapons bay, added range, and increased overall payload - would be ideal.

Ireesponsible miss use of funds if PAF buying old F 16 even with no upgrades it is useless because in that sum of old F 16 with MLU we can get New J 10 with good range we could have ordered J 10 in mushy era rather than going for F 16 we could have built on them

If u see and count since 2006 we got aroung 30 F 16 out of these 18 are new and 12 are old and if u total the amount of these we could have bought 40 J 10 in same amount and all 40 would have been new and superior to F 16 in all termd

JF 17 programme started due to US samction on F 16 now when thunder is armed why going back
If the PAF is to get used F-16s without upgrading them, it would get them via EDA or for peanuts from other air forces. In the end, these non-upgraded used birds could be great replacements for the F-7 until such time more JF-17s roll-out the production line. It's also important to ask ourselves, what is the added benefit of just 40 J-10s when we have to set up an entirely new logistics channel for it? Just another medium-weight fighter? Why not just spend a fraction of that money on EDA F-16s (the cost of which is transit), and put the rest towards JF-17 and FC-31?
would that not make sense 250 jf-17's to replace the j7's and the mirages and what ever is left over can be replaced with more of the 5th gen fighters.
There are a few issues. The PAF is looking to replace a lot of fighters by 2020, so to do that it would have to ramp up JF-17 production to the maximum possible. There are risks with that strategy. For one thing, it is expensive, even more so than picking up EDA F-16s (without upgrading them).

There is also a second aspect as well, and that is the fact that the lifetime production of JF-17s for PAF will reach 250-275, but it would do so in the form of many different blocks, each in accordance with the era's technologial trends.

For example, the PAF might stock up on lots of old F-16s from now until 2020, but it may simply replace those old F-16s with new variant JF-17s (e.g. Block-IV, Block-V, etc) as they become available. In other words, JF-17 production will not stop after 2020, nor will it be the end with Block-III, we're going to keep seeing JF-17 in new forms and variants for a long time, even in the 2020s and 2030s.

These new JF-17s would be considerably more advanced and capable than the Block-I and Block-II because they would incorporate the technology of the day as well as developmental changes. By extending the production of the JF-17 into a long-term and gradual process, the PAF would be able to make the most out of its up-front investment, control costs, as well as keep developing the JF-17 platform.

I honestly believe that after 2020, we will see a massive re-design of the JF-17, something akin to what the Super Hornet is for the original Hornet, or the Block-52+ is to the original Block-5, or the Gripen NG to the original Gripen.
 
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even if they are planning to increase the numbers to 250, that means at least 100 JF's will highly be modified or customized for different roles .
i cant see any reason to go for another 4th gen platform? why? 250 jf-17's with 80/ish f16's is alright. you have a light low quality fighter in large numbers and medium high quality fighters in reasonable numbers. the new 5th gen fighter will most probably replace the older f16's first and then would be along the younger blk 52's which by that time they would need a midlife upgrade. also you dont even know how many 5th gen fighter your getting? which could make up for the void left behind retiring the j-7's the mirages as the mirages and the j-17 is more than 250.
 
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i cant see any reason to go for another 4th gen platform? why? 250 jf-17's with 80/ish f16's is alright. you have a light low quality fighter in large numbers and medium high quality fighters in reasonable numbers. the new 5th gen fighter will most probably replace the older f16's first and then would be along the younger blk 52's which by that time they would need a midlife upgrade. also you dont even know how many 5th gen fighter your getting? which could make up for the void left behind retiring the j-7's the mirages as the mirages and the j-17 is more than 250.

Not talking about another 4th Gen plane, even it does it will be purely for increasing numbers , as many people say J-10's wont be adding any significant Capabilities to our Existing JF block 2 , or F-16 A/B blocks . what i am suggesting that why not do some back door diplomacy to at least try for Su-35 ? recently Russian's sell it to China , despite China and Indian sore relationship, so selling 1 sqs to Pakistan will not make much of a difference , as Indian are all set to buy Rafale , and i am pretty sure there will be a follow up order by IAF of Rafale to make the numbers increase to 50+ .. off course we cant match Indians by Quantity but dedicated sq such as Su-35 for Naval strikes , with 11 Subs with AIP + CM will give goose bumps to IN , and they will think 200 times before they think of a blockade ..
in any way case , Su-35 can be diverted to over Karachi , thanks to their range, they fly as Air Superiority in case we need them .. F-16's Medium , JF light and Su-35 High end Flankers make perfect sense ..
 
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And what do you suggest we replace them with, Air tractors?

Knowing your capabilities......it is entirely possible............even now, they are no better than "air tractors" in your hands.
 
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