Analysis: PAF's Fighter Modernization Roadmap (Part-1)

[Deino]

The problem is Russia raising objection to J series to Pakistan except for J-10 other wise Pakistan should look for J-11 D or new up coming J-16

They could probably look at these types as long as they want, but they will never get them.

CHina will never break that part of the licence agreement with Sukhoi and sell any of their Flanker versions abroad.

 

[Basel]

They could probably look at these types as long as they want, but they will never get them.

CHina will never break that part of the licence agreement with Sukhoi and sell any of their Flanker versions abroad.

Instead of purchasing Pakistan should try to lease 2 squadrons, it can be worked now taking Russia in loop.

 

[Zarvan]

Instead of purchasing Pakistan should try to lease 2 squadrons, it can be worked now taking Russia in loop.

Yes lease it for next 50 years

 

[Basel]

Yes lease it for next 50 years

Leasing (with option of sale after lease ends) J-11D or higher keeping Russia in loop can allow customization as per PAF requirements, those could have new Russian engines and other possible systems of Su-35s, with that India will not be able to stop deal and Russia will not have issue too.

 

[imiakhtar]

It is refreshing to know that unlike some of the posts, which argue for acquiring an aircraft carrier, building nuclear submarine etc., there are still people around who are capable of unemotional, objective and pragmatic analysis. I wish there were more like Bilal Khan.

For once.

The Change in US Govt in this yeah will also effect their South Asia Policy which also effect the sell of any high end fighter to Pakistan . Indian will not swallow that easily .. Indians got more influence and money to buy more congressman .. simple and short ? how are we looking for 110 F-16 by 2020 when we are around 20-25 Planes short . ?

Read the article again.

The additional F-16s would be procured through a mix of US sales, EDA and purchase from other nations. In the next 5 years, a number of countries will start retiring the F-16 in favour of the F-35. No doubt the PAF leadership will look at those used examples.

It's interesting to see the similarities between fleet replacement in an airforce and in airlines. Airlines often look at acquiring new aircraft with the intent of simplifying fleet support. Example, at British Airways we decided to procure 787s to replace 767s and some 747s.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

i cant see any reason to go for another 4th gen platform? why? 250 jf-17's with 80/ish f16's is alright. you have a light low quality fighter in large numbers and medium high quality fighters in reasonable numbers. the new 5th gen fighter will most probably replace the older f16's first and then would be along the younger blk 52's which by that time they would need a midlife upgrade. also you dont even know how many 5th gen fighter your getting? which could make up for the void left behind retiring the j-7's the mirages as the mirages and the j-17 is more than 250.

If you really would like to know what PAF is thinking you have to see between the lines and their history. 250 ish aircraft would only be sufficient to control the western borders but not the eastern one even with multi-purpose SAMs.

Historically PAF has operated two types of fighter aircraft from WEST (USA & FRANCE) and EAST (CHINA & RUSSIA (Under Licence Built by China)). I remember mentioning this to some one in the past as well. Today PAF and Pakistan is to contend with multiple threats not just from the East but West and South. Moreover the continental shelf has also been increased so the requirement has increased.

CPEC is also going to increase the number of airbases towards the west so that would definitely require adding more aircraft.

Over the years it has been in the news that PAF would be increasing in size once the sanctions are removed by USA. These were to be removed in 2015-2016, hence PAF were planning to acquire western platforms. If you go back to the years of Musharuf you would see that the JAS Grepin was looked at but the only reason it was not allowed was due to the US manufactured engine. There was an alternate solution offered by remodeling the Grepin with the same engine that is on the Rafale or the Eurofighter. On the other hand PAF was also looking towards the J-10 but that also required a new engine and further improvements hence the final aircraft was to be based on J-10 C. Within this time the Chinese offered the J-31 which is a fifth gen fighter and PAF also went for a second Fifth Gen aircraft based on JF-17 (still under development).

These aircraft would come once Pak-FA enters IAF, which would be some where around 2022-2025. By this time there will be many western aircraft available like the F-35, TFX, KFX and the SAAB Fighter X.

Now back to present PAF would ideally be after one more Western platform and an Eastern platform. Now what can be bought remains on what is being offered. Russia knowing that after a very long time Pakistan would be able to get the latest aircraft it produces and that too directly hence the offers of Mig-35 and Su-35. PAF rightly went after the Su-35 knowing that the technology is very similar to the PAK-FA for the time being.
This would provide PAF the High-Low mix for the Eastern block.

The Western option is that PAF buys the Eurofighter which is going to give them the High end with the F-16's or go and buy the Grepin which would work as a low end for F-16's

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

yes a lot of fighter are to be retired and we know what they will be replaced with, the jf-17 as is intended.
more f16's? well i dont know, i highly doubt it, but if your actually paying for it then maybe, but if its subsidized then it will be very hard. but there is something that does not stack up. when it was first proposed last year janes quoted a Pakistani official saying the new jets will be more advanced then the blk 52's. the new jets are the exact same. or is he on about another deal we dont know about? i shall let your imagination take you for a ride.

as for the numbers and the block's? i think its 50 jets per block, but it's not gospel and i can be wrong. but 5 block's of 50 is quite a good estimate. and i would assume a reworked version would be arriving beyond 2020. remember they used the f16 model on the jf-17 with the block's and the ab variants are different for the c/d variants [structurally speaking/as well as technically too]


not gonna work. forget the j10 and the su35.
china and russia do huge amounts of business and that alone would be enough justification to ignore india. the rd-93 engine is Russian and india wanted to stop the engine being used on the jf-17 for Pakistan. but Russia was not selling engines to Pakistan they were selling them to china who sold them on to Pakistan. now Russia dropped is self imposed arm embargo on Pakistan they can sell the rd-93 directly to you removing the middle-man thus saving money.
to put it quiet bluntly, who would Russia pick from either china or india as a economic partner?
ok lets say [hypothetically] Pakistan wanted the su-35, its possible but they need cold hard cash. Russia cant afford to give a loan or give an incentive. Pakistan is not stupid nor desperate to get the su-35.

SU-35 can come with agreement via China. China paying hard cash Pakistan paying off load to China.

Most additional F-16s would have to be used (via Excess Defence Articles program or cheap third-party purchases) in order to fit within the PAF's budget. According to Usman Shabbir on PakDef, the Jordan F-16 deal cost Pakistan $75 million in total, i.e. a little less than $6mn per fighter.

Used F-16s acquired from the U.S. via EDA can be had for even less, the PAF would just pay for transit, cleaning, etc. This is if you don't upgrade the fighters, if you put them through service life-extension plans (SLEP), then you could add up to $10 million per unit. Factor in MLU or CCIP (to bring them onto par with the Block-52+ in terms of radar and avionics), then add another $20-25mn a unit.

eda would bypass congress so it's an easy route to take. and would be reflective of the rose program with the mirages, where they purchased used jet's and brought them up to spec. so its a good idea. do the usa have c/d f16's spare? also note european f16's are very very old and are too old to be procured as the air frame is different somehow as i was told. the dutch are retiring 61 f16 am/bm's heck even the danish are retiring 60 f16's too and don't forget Norway. if they can be purchased dirt cheap and are air worthy, then your looking at a winner here. BUT for "coin" only, (don't forget to include the aim-120's)


i like your enthusiasm which is fine. but i just disagree with it. BUT to replace the 50 mirage-5's in the navy? then yes.
heck everyone is so busy talking about the air force you forgot the navy! wont be the first time .

The issue is not getting the aircraft from EDA but the real issue is the engine. PAF operates PW engines where as most of the aircraft that are available internationally are operated by GE engines. When the US announced defence cuts and the availability of the F-16's I asked a question regarding these aircraft to which I got a reply from one of the senior members that the aircraft that are being replaces are using the the GE engines. Hence that would require congress approval as well as complete infrastructure hence not feasible.

However PAF could get the F-16's used by Netherlands once they are replaced by F-35's.
The second option of getting the F-15's of F-18's would also require the same congress approvals.

I also wanted to know if these F-16's with GE engine could be procured with the PW engine but that was not possible because the time and changes to the structure would put them to the same league as getting newer blocks. Unfortunately newer blocks are also not available.

The options regarding the European aircraft are also being looked at but the news is these aircraft have a very low life time remaining.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Instead of wasting funds on F 16 which wont do any difference better we buy SU 35 as russia also want to sell it maintanance etc wont be headache due to china already ordered them too so we can share help in maintanance etc we always beat drums of downed economy when in 2005 our economy was better we ordered initial 72 new F 16 end up canceling all and buy only 18

One way or the other we have to start as our options are limited we better start today other option is J 10 yes it might be new but these type of risk u have to take as we took with JF 17

IFyou keep crying for funds keep crying for logistics etc keep crying for not taking risk of new jets than PAF future is dark

If we go by thinking of PAF it cant take risk with new jets

Jets like F 15 SU 35 F 18 F 16 EF 2000 RAFALE never existed all of these plane owners took that risk

The issue is what can be procured by PAF and commonality. JF-17 and Mig-35 gives engine similarity but no other commonality.

F-15/F-16 These can be said they are two of a kind and an ideal aircraft for PAF to have unfortunately PAF is not interested in them. The reasons are cost and the same Congress approval that is required for the F-16's. So why not go and buy the F-16's.

PAF would like to have the J-14D / J-10's as these would give them the required edge but the issue is the Russian Engine hence PAF would have to either wait till the time the Chinese engine is ready.

If PAF some how manages to procure 40-70 Su-35's then they would be able to get the latest Russian Engine and open up all the Chinese platforms for the numbers game.

If we consider that the JF-17 B is going to be powered by the same French engine that is being used by the Rafale so Rafale could also be an option however PAF might not be interested in this.

EFT could be one of the future aircraft as the engine in trench 3 would be common with the TFX opening up PAF Western options. This is one of the realistic option that might be on the cards.

The problem is Russia raising objection to J series to Pakistan except for J-10 other wise Pakistan should look for J-11 D or new up coming J-16

Leasing (with option of sale after lease ends) J-11D or higher keeping Russia in loop can allow customization as per PAF requirements, those could have new Russian engines and other possible systems of Su-35s, with that India will not be able to stop deal and Russia will not have issue too.

Leasing through China is the most safest option. Russia selling them to China and they are given to Pakistan.