All U.S. warships in Persian Gulf in range of Iran’s missiles: General

[scythian500]

I am not implying that Iranian commanders are incompetent, I am pointing out a fact that while IRAN is a regional power, USA is a proven global power. I have debated with Iranians before and I came to realize that Iranians are highly motivated by nationalism which is good for boosting morale of the masses, but such magnitude of nationalism also have a drawback; it makes masses overconfident as is the case with many Iranians.

you,re right with this point. But Iranians that you talked with here are not neither Iranian high rank to know everything nor will be more than normal soldiers in case of a war. totally natioalism and also Shiism is pretty strong amog Iranians but per my observations as we go higher ad higher i ranks they look like more rational i estimation. I,m confident that Iranian forces are more than ready for a competent war for two reasons. Iran has already 8 year war with limited resources to back its forces. We hurt hard with that war although non of Iraqi goals realized. Today Iran is 10 times stroger but still as I always say, Iranian leaders know well both their capabilities and adversaries so I see it totally non sense to think they say, we are ready for a war if there is any. Although I wish no war is ever be here or anywhere.

Iranian military planners are trying to strengthen the nation's defensive and offensive options but they have limited resources and opportunities and are not in the position to adequately prepare for high-tech warfare in current times. Thousands of warheads sound intimidating on paper, the question-mark is about delivery capability, logistics management, safety of weapon systems, effectiveness of command & control infrastructure, accuracy of offensive weapons, and target identification & tracking capabilities in real-time.

If you see samples of Iranian made technologies in MADE IN IRAN thread you will get a better idea of what is it Irans current and possible capabilities. Iran still lacking some tech but I ca say %90 is already done. Delivery capabilities of Ira is known every where. Iran already mastered all types of missiles delivery systems. The highest tech is latest Ghaem SLV techology which is +12000 km ICBM if coverted to military version. The CEP of most Iranian delivery systems is now 5 m CEP for all ground to ground and ground to sea and ground to air missiles and 20 CEP for intermediate range ones. Iran already exported some of its weapons to afew friendly couuntries and as far as I know they are very happy with it. A big part of Iranian made systems are of logistic management importance my friend. We have adverseries from 4 sides of the country. Target identification is the easiest part for Iranian forces. They worked a lot on this. A big part of UAV program comes from this need. We have land based navigation systems and deep into enemy line observers. One of the most high tech parts of Iranian forces are their radar capability. There is 3 main layer + one sport layer radar target identification system in a 3000 km ciricle around Iran. Every planes or weapon masses or any ships are monitored in real-time. 24/7. I refer you to the network of Sepehr OTH +3000 km radars with stealth identification capabilites. +1100 km second phase radars joined by other radars of different functions with ranges between 500 to 700 km. a correlating network of short range radar and defence systems and upgraded Cruise, Ballistic and drone capable S-200, Tor M-1, Sayyad 2, 3 and 4 missiles and many fire control radars mostly of Russian origin but all of them are upgraded with new electronics and algorithms to have the system in a unique form than its export versions. The already practiced it and there are many samples on net. Every plane or object taking off in a circle of nearly 3000 kms is monitored and analysied by strtagic experts. Let not forget the pretty high tech Iranian electronic warefare capabilities and since all this technologies and all the algorithms are local, there will be limited threat to them. These all already realized and are in operation. Beside this, there is a huge 22th century system under developement that I can,t say much about but I know it has a unique system in which is unbreakable by any known electronic warfare. It will consist of individual electronic units with cameras, and different sensor mounted on soldiers... multiple central command management systems that subsitute damaged ones automaticly. New algorithms that can,t be broken. This system will make sure all the elements of Iranian forces do their designed job no matter what happens to them or no matter what counter masses are used. This huge program is already under develeopment and so far I,m aware of Central command systems and Iranian future soldier programs that exists. There are other elements that said will remain confidential all the way to the real war.

1. How many missiles can IRAN fire simultaneously in a single attempt?
Im, afraid I don,t know it.. even if I do... do you really expect me to say?? but per my estimates there will be sprawl technics against all ships. both missiles herd and fast boats. and with a single rule of the thumb, we can estimate that with around 50 permanent mobile sites around the southern shores it won,t be less than let,s say 100 missiles at once.. Iran managed to station multiple layer mobile missile launchers... some are as close as Iranian abu mousa and tonbs islands and some are as far as 200 km deep into Iranian soil and hidden in anti-satelitle and anti-radar facilities. All these are my estimates and I can,t be sure coz I,m not a commander in Iran.

2. How will IRAN manage to deploy and supposedly fire many missiles towards enemy positions without jeopardizing their safety from incoming enemy attack?

They already analysied western forces and capabilities and for sure they managed to do it in a way they have the least possible damages.
3. How IRAN will achieve high hit-rate with its weapon systems?
Precision weapons are well known..from smart +110 km one tone smart bombs... up to CEP 5 half a tone warhead missiles.. both ballistic and cruise. As far as I know, Iran trying to offset the defensive shileds of western ships and bases by very hight speeds and last stage maneuverable warheads plus MIRVs. Half of Iranian Fateh 110 and khalij e fars missiles are equiped with RAINY warheads that has 30 smaller warheads each 17 kg warhead.
4. How IRAN will track (mobile) US military targets? Already responsed. There are many online VIDEOS showed by Iranians on conferences in Tehran... tracking and monitoring US ships in real time. Even though those technologies are relatively old and Iran has much more capable UAVs now...but with those simple UAVs, US ships could n,t discover the monitoring operation for half and hour or more...let aside all the sophisticated radars Iran made operational.
5. How IRAN would counter US jamming technologies? it is 15 years now that Iran focused on this tech. They learned valuable lessons from previous incidents. although Iran is much more capable in make enemy jamming UNEFFECTIVE than offending by jamming western ships. This is my guess but as this aspect is of strategic importance to Iranians I can guess they already surpassed what they need.

You see! As we ponder, the list of questions grow. Iranians have the tendency to simplify things but complexities and uncertainties involved in a military operation are greater then they typically realize.
It is not simple not to Iran and not for US...

Examples? And what kind of testing procedures and scenarios considered? Also, how did IRAN manage to simulate US military capability in these exercises?

many many excersies done almost every year and sometimes twice a year... simulation in full scale...remember the nimitz class Iran built? Those are all for this purpose


Not long ago, IRAN threatened to close Strait of Hormuz if more sanctions were to be imposed on it by the WEST: BBC News - Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz oil route
It was not Iranian official stand as far as I know... If I,m not wrong it was made by some MPs in parliment or some commanders not in CHIEF position.. You heard this news but never heard the aftermass that Iranian officials rejected these claims.. Even if they did..it is childish claim... you don,t wanna go to a full scale war..it is just soft war .. although I have heard it is not official

However, Iranian threats turned out to be empty when US prepared itself for a possibility of war with Iran on this matter. Details nicely compiled here: 2011–12 Strait of Hormuz dispute - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Do you really expect Iran to close straight of hormuz without a full scale war? it not a kiddy kiddow play
Yes, Iranian military posture is predominantly defensive with limited offensive capability but this is largely due to limited resources of the nation coupled with restrictions imposed on it via sanctions. Comparing to US budget , Iran is much lower as any other nation is. But the official 13 to 16 billion dollars budget of Iran should be at least tripled as Iran made all these with sometimes one fifth of the international price as it is all local and cheap.


USA have been busy in War on Terror in current times and their was little impetus to attack IRAN after it permitted IAEA to inspect its nuclear facilities. The two nations came closest to exchange blows in 2011 due to reason cited above but thankfully sanity prevailed in the end. Also, bravery, as a sole factor, is not sufficient to win a war against a technologically superior, determined and more resourceful adversary in modern era.

A simple search shows that USA and their allies were always into attacking Iran since revolution. specially in 2005 and 2007 when they were even prepared and planned everything and ordered to create a false flag incident in Persian Gulf. It is all known now.. But what happened that they realized the should not attack..this is another story... Iran was part of war on terror if you remember axis of evil speech of W. He said Every nation who is not with us is against us... Iran never invaded any country in more than 2 centuries now. All these non sense God FATHER of the world game US trying to play made Iranians become even more firm with their goal to dismantle this crazy, childish , stupid world order and make itself as strong as he can so he can redraw the play for all nations benefit.


Sounds like a hypothesis to me. How do you think that Iranians will breach the barriers of US jamming capabilities, offensive options, defensive options, military tactics, and Intel gathering networks without any issue? Are you assuming that USA is sitting blind and have no countermeasures in place for the incoming Iranian onslaught?

You as I can see is pretty intimated with western propaganda claims.. If US commanders were in same mindset as you are then they would have invaded Iran a while ago. No army in this world is MIGHTY... every army has its weaknesses...you only need to realize it and plan for it and update your plans with their changes... You know what with all the respect I have for you pakistani guys, I see you, think, act and feared as west WANTS YOU to be. You made their dominance game EASY. IF you recall those small bare hand groups of Hizbullah and Hamas and Others and their guts to confront a 10000 times stronger (on paper) armies and seen the results. (hisbullah not only still exists but grow stronger day by day).. then you might for second think that maybe winning in a war or defending your country in case of Iran, Is not as easy as the game of comparing chevy Camaro 2014 Vs Ford Mustang. War has tens of aspects. US regular capabilities are not in par with irregular Iran's capabilities my friend... They can start the war and hit us hard..but the fact that 1- it is almost unknown what to expect from Iran in real war and 2- irregular unorthodox consequences of inside war and after math of it.. leave a huge room of hesitation among western leaders... you know why nobody could wipe Alghaeda or taliban or ISIS out yet despite all the casulties? because they know they have no good chance in weapon Vs weapons basis..then they go to find weaknesses and hit enemy hard from those points... irregular Technics that are known in hundreds..so, a wise military expert would take evrythig into consideration when they want to plan an invasion..

Of-course, I am not claiming that US may not suffer some casualties during a war, but think about how much IRAN stands to loose in this confrontation.
Already responded... one should always ask himself the question of WHY despite all Israeli and western claims that we must invade Iran...why so far and we are in 2015...this dream still is a dream? Don,t tell me they prefer diplomatic solutions.. they always imposed their will militarily as soon as they wanted something.. if you see they can,t leave the negotiations...think of a fact that maybe they already tried to do the same with IRan ..the same as they did to Afgh and Iraq and libya and Serb....etc...but the found out that this war should not be unleashed... it is not for their good... Western commanders are much more wiser than people think... they won,t start a war unless they are sure they finish it soon and with affordable casualties... US likes to invade a weak nation to show he is almighty... but think why most expects talk about a possible WW3 scenario in case they go to war with Iran... If it was only empty claims or exaggeration from Iranian side then all millions of western experts should not be fooled..right?

US fleet commanders have resources, experience and confidence to tackle any adversary, should the situation demand. Keep this fact in mind.
I keep that in mind... we don,t have experience...nor enough mind to defende ourselves...then nothing to be worried of... West will crash Iran if they want to... yes, if they want to!

 

[SvenSvensonov]

I am not implying that Iranian commanders are incompetent, I am pointing out a fact that while IRAN is a regional power, USA is a proven global power. I have debated with Iranians before and I came to realize that Iranians are highly motivated by nationalism which is good for boosting morale of the masses, but such magnitude of nationalism also have a drawback; it makes masses overconfident as is the case with many Iranians.

you,re right with this point. But Iranians that you talked with here are not neither Iranian high rank to know everything nor will be more than normal soldiers in case of a war. totally natioalism and also Shiism is pretty strong amog Iranians but per my observations as we go higher ad higher i ranks they look like more rational i estimation. I,m confident that Iranian forces are more than ready for a competent war for two reasons. Iran has already 8 year war with limited resources to back its forces. We hurt hard with that war although non of Iraqi goals realized. Today Iran is 10 times stroger but still as I always say, Iranian leaders know well both their capabilities and adversaries so I see it totally non sense to think they say, we are ready for a war if there is any. Although I wish no war is ever be here or anywhere.

Iranian military planners are trying to strengthen the nation's defensive and offensive options but they have limited resources and opportunities and are not in the position to adequately prepare for high-tech warfare in current times. Thousands of warheads sound intimidating on paper, the question-mark is about delivery capability, logistics management, safety of weapon systems, effectiveness of command & control infrastructure, accuracy of offensive weapons, and target identification & tracking capabilities in real-time.

If you see samples of Iranian made technologies in MADE IN IRAN thread you will get a better idea of what is it Irans current and possible capabilities. Iran still lacking some tech but I ca say %90 is already done. Delivery capabilities of Ira is known every where. Iran already mastered all types of missiles delivery systems. The highest tech is latest Ghaem SLV techology which is +12000 km ICBM if coverted to military version. The CEP of most Iranian delivery systems is now 5 m CEP for all ground to ground and ground to sea and ground to air missiles and 20 CEP for intermediate range ones. Iran already exported some of its weapons to afew friendly couuntries and as far as I know they are very happy with it. A big part of Iranian made systems are of logistic management importance my friend. We have adverseries from 4 sides of the country. Target identification is the easiest part for Iranian forces. They worked a lot on this. A big part of UAV program comes from this need. We have land based navigation systems and deep into enemy line observers. One of the most high tech parts of Iranian forces are their radar capability. There is 3 main layer + one sport layer radar target identification system in a 3000 km ciricle around Iran. Every planes or weapon masses or any ships are monitored in real-time. 24/7. I refer you to the network of Sepehr OTH +3000 km radars with stealth identification capabilites. +1100 km second phase radars joined by other radars of different functions with ranges between 500 to 700 km. a correlating network of short range radar and defence systems and upgraded Cruise, Ballistic and drone capable S-200, Tor M-1, Sayyad 2, 3 and 4 missiles and many fire control radars mostly of Russian origin but all of them are upgraded with new electronics and algorithms to have the system in a unique form than its export versions. The already practiced it and there are many samples on net. Every plane or object taking off in a circle of nearly 3000 kms is monitored and analysied by strtagic experts. Let not forget the pretty high tech Iranian electronic warefare capabilities and since all this technologies and all the algorithms are local, there will be limited threat to them. These all already realized and are in operation. Beside this, there is a huge 22th century system under developement that I can,t say much about but I know it has a unique system in which is unbreakable by any known electronic warfare. It will consist of individual electronic units with cameras, and different sensor mounted on soldiers... multiple central command management systems that subsitute damaged ones automaticly. New algorithms that can,t be broken. This system will make sure all the elements of Iranian forces do their designed job no matter what happens to them or no matter what counter masses are used. This huge program is already under develeopment and so far I,m aware of Central command systems and Iranian future soldier programs that exists. There are other elements that said will remain confidential all the way to the real war.

1. How many missiles can IRAN fire simultaneously in a single attempt?
Im, afraid I don,t know it.. even if I do... do you really expect me to say?? but per my estimates there will be sprawl technics against all ships. both missiles herd and fast boats. and with a single rule of the thumb, we can estimate that with around 50 permanent mobile sites around the southern shores it won,t be less than let,s say 100 missiles at once.. Iran managed to station multiple layer mobile missile launchers... some are as close as Iranian abu mousa and tonbs islands and some are as far as 200 km deep into Iranian soil and hidden in anti-satelitle and anti-radar facilities. All these are my estimates and I can,t be sure coz I,m not a commander in Iran.

2. How will IRAN manage to deploy and supposedly fire many missiles towards enemy positions without jeopardizing their safety from incoming enemy attack?

They already analysied western forces and capabilities and for sure they managed to do it in a way they have the least possible damages.
3. How IRAN will achieve high hit-rate with its weapon systems?
Precision weapons are well known..from smart +110 km one tone smart bombs... up to CEP 5 half a tone warhead missiles.. both ballistic and cruise. As far as I know, Iran trying to offset the defensive shileds of western ships and bases by very hight speeds and last stage maneuverable warheads plus MIRVs. Half of Iranian Fateh 110 and khalij e fars missiles are equiped with RAINY warheads that has 30 smaller warheads each 17 kg warhead.
4. How IRAN will track (mobile) US military targets? Already responsed. There are many online VIDEOS showed by Iranians on conferences in Tehran... tracking and monitoring US ships in real time. Even though those technologies are relatively old and Iran has much more capable UAVs now...but with those simple UAVs, US ships could n,t discover the monitoring operation for half and hour or more...let aside all the sophisticated radars Iran made operational.
5. How IRAN would counter US jamming technologies? it is 15 years now that Iran focused on this tech. They learned valuable lessons from previous incidents. although Iran is much more capable in make enemy jamming UNEFFECTIVE than offending by jamming western ships. This is my guess but as this aspect is of strategic importance to Iranians I can guess they already surpassed what they need.

You see! As we ponder, the list of questions grow. Iranians have the tendency to simplify things but complexities and uncertainties involved in a military operation are greater then they typically realize.
It is not simple not to Iran and not for US...

Examples? And what kind of testing procedures and scenarios considered? Also, how did IRAN manage to simulate US military capability in these exercises?

many many excersies done almost every year and sometimes twice a year... simulation in full scale...remember the nimitz class Iran built? Those are all for this purpose


Not long ago, IRAN threatened to close Strait of Hormuz if more sanctions were to be imposed on it by the WEST: BBC News - Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz oil route
It was not Iranian official stand as far as I know... If I,m not wrong it was made by some MPs in parliment or some commanders not in CHIEF position.. You heard this news but never heard the aftermass that Iranian officials rejected these claims.. Even if they did..it is childish claim... you don,t wanna go to a full scale war..it is just soft war .. although I have heard it is not official

However, Iranian threats turned out to be empty when US prepared itself for a possibility of war with Iran on this matter. Details nicely compiled here: 2011–12 Strait of Hormuz dispute - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Do you really expect Iran to close straight of hormuz without a full scale war? it not a kiddy kiddow play
Yes, Iranian military posture is predominantly defensive with limited offensive capability but this is largely due to limited resources of the nation coupled with restrictions imposed on it via sanctions. Comparing to US budget , Iran is much lower as any other nation is. But the official 13 to 16 billion dollars budget of Iran should be at least tripled as Iran made all these with sometimes one fifth of the international price as it is all local and cheap.


USA have been busy in War on Terror in current times and their was little impetus to attack IRAN after it permitted IAEA to inspect its nuclear facilities. The two nations came closest to exchange blows in 2011 due to reason cited above but thankfully sanity prevailed in the end. Also, bravery, as a sole factor, is not sufficient to win a war against a technologically superior, determined and more resourceful adversary in modern era.

A simple search shows that USA and their allies were always into attacking Iran since revolution. specially in 2005 and 2007 when they were even prepared and planned everything and ordered to create a false flag incident in Persian Gulf. It is all known now.. But what happened that they realized the should not attack..this is another story... Iran was part of war on terror if you remember axis of evil speech of W. He said Every nation who is not with us is against us... Iran never invaded any country in more than 2 centuries now. All these non sense God FATHER of the world game US trying to play made Iranians become even more firm with their goal to dismantle this crazy, childish , stupid world order and make itself as strong as he can so he can redraw the play for all nations benefit.


Sounds like a hypothesis to me. How do you think that Iranians will breach the barriers of US jamming capabilities, offensive options, defensive options, military tactics, and Intel gathering networks without any issue? Are you assuming that USA is sitting blind and have no countermeasures in place for the incoming Iranian onslaught?

You as I can see is pretty intimated with western propaganda claims.. If US commanders were in same mindset as you are then they would have invaded Iran a while ago. No army in this world is MIGHTY... every army has its weaknesses...you only need to realize it and plan for it and update your plans with their changes... You know what with all the respect I have for you pakistani guys, I see you, think, act and feared as west WANTS YOU to be. You made their dominance game EASY. IF you recall those small bare hand groups of Hizbullah and Hamas and Others and their guts to confront a 10000 times stronger (on paper) armies and seen the results. (hisbullah not only still exists but grow stronger day by day).. then you might for second think that maybe winning in a war or defending your country in case of Iran, Is not as easy as the game of comparing chevy Camaro 2014 Vs Ford Mustang. War has tens of aspects. US regular capabilities are not in par with irregular Iran's capabilities my friend... They can start the war and hit us hard..but the fact that 1- it is almost unknown what to expect from Iran in real war and 2- irregular unorthodox consequences of inside war and after math of it.. leave a huge room of hesitation among western leaders... you know why nobody could wipe Alghaeda or taliban or ISIS out yet despite all the casulties? because they know they have no good chance in weapon Vs weapons basis..then they go to find weaknesses and hit enemy hard from those points... irregular Technics that are known in hundreds..so, a wise military expert would take evrythig into consideration when they want to plan an invasion..

Of-course, I am not claiming that US may not suffer some casualties during a war, but think about how much IRAN stands to loose in this confrontation.
Already responded... one should always ask himself the question of WHY despite all Israeli and western claims that we must invade Iran...why so far and we are in 2015...this dream still is a dream? Don,t tell me they prefer diplomatic solutions.. they always imposed their will militarily as soon as they wanted something.. if you see they can,t leave the negotiations...think of a fact that maybe they already tried to do the same with IRan ..the same as they did to Afgh and Iraq and libya and Serb....etc...but the found out that this war should not be unleashed... it is not for their good... Western commanders are much more wiser than people think... they won,t start a war unless they are sure they finish it soon and with affordable casualties... US likes to invade a weak nation to show he is almighty... but think why most expects talk about a possible WW3 scenario in case they go to war with Iran... If it was only empty claims or exaggeration from Iranian side then all millions of western experts should not be fooled..right?

US fleet commanders have resources, experience and confidence to tackle any adversary, should the situation demand. Keep this fact in mind.
I keep that in mind... we don,t have experience...nor enough mind to defende ourselves...then nothing to be worried of... West will crash Iran if they want to... yes, if they want to!

You make some interesting observations, but there are some inaccuracies and speculatory points in your post as well. I want to address some of them.

1. The long range anti-stealth radars are a thing, I'm not going to dispute this as the Russians have similar systems that can track aircraft flying over Western Europe from Russian soil, but, and this is important, there is no available information other than the claims being made that this Iranian system is "anti-stealth". It's kind of become a thing with the Iranian military to claim everything possesses stealth technology, and everything else can detect it. Is it possible the radar has anti-stealth capabilities? Yes, it is, based on similar foreign systems, but there is nothing beyond claims to support this. Also, what systems would Iran uses to test the anti-stealth capabilities of their radars? They don't have access to stealth systems that can be used for testing.

The Russian Duga-3 was one such long-range radar The abandoned giant Duga-3 system antenna near prypiat

As for the "unique system in which is unbreakable by any known electronic warfare" - don't make claims like this, you'll always be wrong. Iran has a good, but not great, EW capability. Any algorithm can be broken, it's just a matter of how soon.

2. It really doesn't matter how many missiles Iran can fire at a time. The US ships aren't even going to be in the Gulf in the event of a war. The first sign a war is coming is the US presence packing up and leaving for the open sea. This renders fast boats and short range UAVs much less effective. The US will defeat high value targets using its arsenal of long-range weapons before moving in closer and mopping up. Iran doesn't have the long-range, over the horizon targeting systems that would be needed to target US ships in open waters. They have long-range weapons, not long enough to match the standoff range of US systems, but they lack the targeting capabilities and a missile or rocket without targeting is useless,

"Iranian soil and hidden in anti-satellite" - Iran hasn't demonstrated an ability to track or defeat satellites. Again don't make claims like this without providing proof, and at present there isn't a shred of it.

The US monitors enemy ASAT capabilities, from Russia to China and everywhere in between. If something had been tested the US would know about it.

Iran's ASAT capabilities are just theoretical at this point, nothing concrete has happened yet. Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | Iran unveils new space rocket and satellite designs

3. I've seen the videos of Iranian drones and other aircraft videotaping US ships. Good for them. The reason they did is because the ships, and their Iranian counterpart, were operating in peacetime protocols and neither considered the other's systems to be a threat. In war, any aircraft or boat approaching within a certain distance will be warned and then fired upon, at ranges up to a distance of over 100nm. In war no Iranian aircraft will get that close to a US ship or carrier without provoking a lethal response. In peacetime, yes Iran can track our systems and do fly-bys of them, in war they are dead.

4. Jamming technologies are hard to estimate, but the US routinely practices using its systems such as the Joint Threat Emitter or the F-16CJ JDEWR, we know how to jam and avoid being jammed. As for jamming ships... you can jam some less necessary radars, but not others. US missiles are highly jam proof and have their own seekers, they don't need a ships guidance. Forget about jamming the US AEGIS system (the Russian claim has been thoroughly debunked) - the SPY-1 radar puts out so much energy that it burns through any jamming attempts.

This is an analysis of the Russian AEGIS jamming claim - Russia Claims Its Bomber Jammed U.S. Destroyer — War Is Boring — Medium

As for resisting jamming attempts, we can jam even the most modern of Russian, European and Chinese systems (with both practical experience and simulated exercises using the JTE)... those of Iran wouldn't be too difficult.

The Joint Threat Emitter Can Be Any SAM Site You Want It To Be

JDEWR brings fight to F-16 pilots

5. "You as I can see is pretty intimated with western propaganda claims." - don't do this. Make your claim, support it with evidence, but don't play the "Western Propaganda" card when you want to avoid answering a question. It's the lazy way of saying, "I don't know".

"A simple search shows that USA and their allies were always into attacking Iran since revolution. specially in 2005 and 2007 when they were even prepared and planned everything and ordered to create a false flag incident in Persian Gulf."

The US may have plans to attack Iran, but only if provoked... though the US has a broad list of provocations. As for the false-flag the US was ordered to do... provide evidence not claims. Where's the support that shows you know the US plans for starting a war, I doubt your in a positions to be privy to US planning.

"US regular capabilities are not in par with irregular Iran's capabilities my friend" - again, provide evidence. The Iranian swarm boats? The US has an answer to either move it's ships out of harms way or use its new systems and tactics to defeat them. The Brimstone and Griffin missiles have been developed specifically to deal with the swarm boat problem.

LCS Defends Against Swarm Boats in Live Fire Tests | Defense Tech

MBDA Adapts Brimstone to Target Swarming Fast Attack Craft | Defense Tech

Midget subs? They are noisy and detectable. We have experience tracking those of North Korea, and Iran's are a variation of those of North Korea, we can track and defeat yours too.

Ghadir-class submarine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - the Ghadir is a version of the North Korean Yono-Class

You have some good points, but offer too much speculation and emotionally charged input. Some of your claims are just wrong.

 

[surya kiran]

There is a big difference between being in range and then being able to hit it.

1. I can kick a football 50 mts - Within range
2. I can kick a football 50 mts into the goal - Aiming at target
3. I can kick a footbal 50 mts even if it has a Oliver Kahn - Hitting target
4. I can kick a football 50 mts even if it has Oliver Kahn and the net with Oliver Kahn in it is moving - Hitting a USN ship.

Not sure, if anybody can today say with surety of the last.

Ps : I forgot to add, first one needs to figure out where the goal is

 

[scythian500]

You make a lot of good points, but there are some inaccuracies and speculatory points in your post as well. I want to address some of them.

1. The long range anti-stealth radars are a thing, I'm not going to dispute this as the Russians have similar systems that can track aircraft flying over Western Europe from Russian soil, but, and this is important, there is no available information other than the claims being made that the system is "anti-stealth". It's kind of become a thing with the Iranian military to claim everything possesses stealth technology, and everything else can detect it. Is it possible the radar has anti-stealth capabilities? Yes it is based on similar foreign systems, but there is nothing beyond claims to support this. Also, what systems would Iran uses to test the anti-stealth capabilities of their radars? They don't have access to stealth systems that can be used for testing.
as I said I AM NOT SURE... I,m not an Iranian commander... This is all based on what I have heard or seen so far.. they are wrong claims..baseless? Then no american would be worried... I agree that there is a considerable amount of bluffing from both sides..it is what it is.. This is a well known Technic to leave everything to the battle field.. One thing I,m sure is that neither Americans nor Iranians are not stupid and fool... they have thousands of experts and they analyse everything all the time.. an honest Enemy is an stupid enemy in case of a probable war... I wish there will be no wars and USA stops its Double standard funny policies... Human right violation is bad only if it happens in Russia or Iran.. If even basic rights for people are not relaised in an ally country then it is not their concern... crashing anti-government protests is bad as long as it is in Russia or Iran... but doing the same in US and UK is all natural right! having WMD weapons are bad only if it is in hands of ENEMY... Iran can,t have a few centrifuges while other 7 or 8 nuke capable armies has a NATURAL right to possess the most destructive weapons.. I know the rule of jungle has copied after WW2 as if a few lions and wolves won so the world should give them all the rights exclusively!! This is ridiculous and I assure It will change soon based on what I see

As for the "unique system in which is unbreakable by any known electronic warfare" - don't make claims like this, you'll always be wrong. Iran has a good, but not great, EW capability. Any algorithm can be broken, it's just a matter of how soon. I have heard from mathematicians that this new system will be unbreakable (relatively speaking) as even a 1 giga bite encrypted system can be decoded on papers.. If it is a soft war propaganda...then as always Nothing to be worried of... all Iranian systems are breakable... btw, most new american systems are also only claims...they never used in a war to see how capable they are.. like F-22 or F-35 being absolute winner in a sky full of PAKfa or new Sukuis or even Chinese birds... if they announced some excersice and simulation, then there are lots of OPPOSITE claims about it that it just don,t work as it is planned to...

2. It really doesn't matter how many missiles Iran can fire at a time. The US ships aren't even going to be in the Gulf in the event of a war. The first sign a war is coming is the US presence packing up and leaving for the open sea. This renders fast boats and short range UAVs much less effective. The US will defeat high value targets using its arsenal of long-range weapons before moving in closer and mopping up. Iran doesn't have the long-range, over the horizon targeting systems that would be needed to target US ships in open waters. They have long-range weapons, not long enough to match the standoff range of US systems, but they lack the targeting capabilities and a missile or rocket without targeting is useless,
If it was that easily obvious that when ships are leaving Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea then they will attack, then I guess we should be worried of such an strategy pre-exposed... Long range missiles has the same weaknesses as any other missiles... I really surprise when I see some experts see the possible war as US sticks every infra Iran has and then second wave comes and then third one comes..and that,s it... reallly? Iran probably by my understanding in case of a full scale war, only defend itself against long range ones and focus on American multiple bases or interests that can,t be moved.. this is my guess... as I said.. I just mentioned my understanding which I guess is pretty naive too... so, let us not be so sure about everything propaganda says..from both sides..

"Iranian soil and hidden in anti-satellite" - Iran hasn't demonstrated an ability to track or defeat satellites. Again don't make claims like this without providing proof, and at present there isn't a shred of it.

The US monitors enemy ASAT capabilities, from Russia to China and everywhere in between. If something had been tested the US would know about it.

There were many reports saying Iran has both capability to track American or hostile satellites and specially have and already tested to DEFEAT american satellites...google "Iran blinded American Spy Satellites" I have specially read a few material saying that becoz Iran can easily DISABLE GPS from functioning over Iran, US forces must find alternative relaibale ways to direct its mainly GPS based weapons and systems.. Iranian hidden and anti-satellite positions to disguise Anti-ship ballistic missiles ability is well known.. don,t ask me for source... I have read something already that I have this perception... The reason behind this is that Iran mastered hiding what he wants under ground or I don,t know what... on last pentagon report I guess... I have read something about the possibility of Iran having many other missile sites not exposed already due to it being mobile or covered by I don,t know what technics

3. I've seen the videos of Iranian drones and other aircraft videotaping US ships. Good for them. The reason they did is because the ships, and their Iranian counterpart, were operating in peacetime protocols and neither considered the other's systems to be a threat. In war, any aircraft or boat approaching within a certain distance will be warned and then fired upon, at ranges up to a distance of over 100nm. In war no Iranian aircraft will get that close to a US ship or carrier without provoking a lethal response. In peacetime, yes Iran can track our systems and do fly-bys of them, in war they are dead.

You are so certain of whatever you say... at least use something like I GUESS , or MAYBE... r u some high rank US commander? for your info, US fleet in Iranian southern waters are in SAFE DISTANCE PROTOCOL situation non stop since the end of Iran-Iraq war... It is easily searchable that EVERYDAY.. Iranian elements get closer than they should to US ships and they do nothing... If I remember correct the VIDEOS were from UAVs flying almost exactly OVER the ships... Even in peace times, no enemy element can or should be that close to an US ship... Let alone those embarrassing shows, showing Iranian soldiers WRITING STUFF or STICKING IRANIAN LABELS on US ships.... My good american friend.. I know it is both foolish to THINK US ships are weak...or US ships are almighty... but beileve me.. incidents shows they are not as they claim... as Iranians probably aren,t as they claim... and This is exatly why Iran and West conflict has took so long to start

4. Jamming technologies are hard to estimate, but the US routinely practices using its systems such as the Joint Threat Emitter or the F-16CJ JDEWR, we know how to jam and avoid being jammed. As for jamming ships... you can jam some less necessary radars, but not others. US missiles are highly jam proof and have their own seekers, they don't need a ships guidance. Forget about jamming the US AEGIS system (the Russian claim has been thoroughly debunked) - the SPY-1 radar puts out so much energy that it burns through any jamming attempts.
Exactly... "JAMMING TECH ARE HARD TO ESTIMATE"... This applies to Iranain jamming capabilities too... but remeber Iranian electronic related weapons are way much developed and advanced than other parts of Iranian arsenal... I hope all Iranian claims are false and US claims are true... maybe for first and last time they wipe Iran off the map....then West has nothing to worry about anymore..and I can go to my party scheduled for next Sunday...

As for resisting jamming attempts, we can jam even the most modern of Russian, European and Chinese systems (with both practical experience and simulated exercises using the JTE)... those of Iran wouldn't be too difficult.

Then nothing to worry about then... US can invade Iran whenever he wants.. but as you know ... THEY DON'T want it... This is why they don,t attack...they just don,t want it..other than this, they can get in..get out quick with low casualties...

The Joint Threat Emitter Can Be Any SAM Site You Want It To Be

JDEWR brings fight to F-16 pilots

5. "You as I can see is pretty intimated with western propaganda claims." - don't do this. Make your claim, support it with evidence, but don't play the "Western Propaganda" card when you want to avoid answering a question. It's the lazy way of saying, "I don't know".

It is not escaping from answering... we have a saying in Iran that says " A Simple Hint would be enough for wise man". But this intimidating others is a big part of western policy..hundreds if not thousands of well paid experts are working everyday to make sure they propaganda MIGHTY military power gets its goals but intimidating others... this way they can win a war even before starting it... Don,t tell me there is no propaganda... I see and hear it everyday in specially Persian speaking media outside Iran... for example, MANOTO channel Persian speaking TV... is anti-gov British funded channel that unfortunately has many viewers inside Iran although it is still minor comparing to the population... They with no exception air different colorful translated AMERICAN and ISRAELI weapon shows...and once I focused on one show.. they repeated like 100 times that this weapons or that system is very dangerous and enemies should be afraid of us... come on my friend... hopefully there are no one falling for this trap among my friends at least... I asked each and every friend of mine about what they get from these shows...and they told me..it is just prop... Iran has already tested and stationed most of these so called FUTURE weapons... So don,t tell me it is only claims...it is horrible truth that we witness everyday...

"A simple search shows that USA and their allies were always into attacking Iran since revolution. specially in 2005 and 2007 when they were even prepared and planned everything and ordered to create a false flag incident in Persian Gulf."

The US may have plans to attack Iran, but only if provoked... though the US has a broad list of provocations. As for the false-flag the US was ordered to do... provide evidence not claims. Where's the support that shows you know the US plans for starting a war, I doubt your in a positions to be privy to US planning.
as you are good in googling things.. I recommend you to google US fleet preparing to get a false flag in Persian gulf... I have seen many documentaries about it...both Iranian and American ones... and they confessed this in several occasions I guess... what happened that they didn,t? well...there are stories..but I,m not gonna judge.. study the case yourself.. wikileaks aside of course although it is pretty credible otherwise they won,t charge the poor guy with all the charges if he comes to US

"US regular capabilities are not in par with irregular Iran's capabilities my friend" - again, provide evidence. The Iranian swarm boats? The US has an answer to either move it's ships out of harms way or use its new systems and tactics to defeat them. The Brimstone and Griffin missiles have been developed specifically to deal with the swarm boat problem.

I said in wrong words... what I meant was that Regular and Irregular military capabilities are not right to Compare... although, one might give the medal of WAR WINNER to one side based on casualties..or damages...one can say... the winner is that side that prevented the invader from GETTING WHAT SHE PLANNED IN FIRST PLACE... like what I call Hizbullah or Hamas as winners of last war with Israeli... Israeli could manage to kill more than 2000 individuals mostly civilians..hamas only killed nearly 60 to 90 soldiers... who,s the winner? Isreal is stronger by 100 folds at least...they said they will occupy GAZA..they will destroy all hamas capabilities...and at the end..they just accepted the cease fire..while Hamas and other Palestinian groups are now even stronger!! I call this a victory for Hamas and an absolute loss for Israeli

Midget subs? They are noisy and detectable. We have experience tracking those of North Korea, and Iran's are a variation of those of North Korea, we can track and defeat yours too.

Ghadir-class submarine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - the Ghadir is a version of the North Korean Yono-Class

LCS Defends Against Swarm Boats in Live Fire Tests | Defense Tech

again if all Iranian submarines or midgets are harmless..then there is nothing to worry about... Those small Ghadir class midgets are the only subs that can operate in sometimes 15 meters depth of Persian gulf... Russian KILO class are well known as being pretty dangerious by western sources... let aside other subs Iran is making in numbers... Fateh class will have hoot torpeados... I guess HOOT 360 km/h torpedo is harmless.. is n,t it?

You have some good points, but offer too much speculation and emotionally charged input. Some of your claims are just wrong.

I,m emotional and I,m proud of myself being emotional... when it is serious I,m more than serious... but these talks are just TALK... neither I am Iranian well informed commander..nor you are aware of both sides capabilities...this is my SPECULATIONS.... I admit it... most of it are my THOUGHTS ... they are all speculations... the reasons is pretty clear I guess... I try to convince you that US army is not that mighty... you try to prove that US can beat Iran easily... My nice and kind brother... let,s hope no war ever unleashes... it is a shame for HUMAN BEEN that still in 2th century with all the advancements in life, we are still following the same scheme as animals in a jungle... I,m pretty rational on this... I will never ever wish for a war..not for us..not for US and not for anyone... nearly one billlion people has nothing to EAT today in 2014 and we different nations are showing off that WE ARE THE BEST... I give current world effective leader ZERO out of ten when running the world is considered...current human mindset is a disgrace to all existence...

After this you can name me with whatever you like..this is the way it was and it is and will be as it seems... I declare here... I am whatever you and every other so called member SAYS I AM.../ I am emotional... not informative...not whatever... but one thing I,m pretty sure of myself is that me as an Iranian citizen...RESPECT and ADMIRE Americans for their admirable deeds and dids... actually, I have had a few american room mates somewhere on this earth ... I liked them the most... they are pretty similar to what we are... good or bad...and I VERY MUCH admire US strength in each and every field that they are STRONG at... and Please don,t continue responding... I agree with whatever you say in response.. I don,t have time to spend it here anymore for tonight...maybe later...
BTW, did I tell you guys that I love Arabs, Turks, Pakis, Indians, Azeris, Americans? Future is in their hands and I hope this time we do it right in a way that when we look at our history, we be pretty proud of us being called the MASTERS of earth ( if

 

[scythian500]

The older PHALANX has been tested dozens of times vs. sea-skimming missiles, and it does work well. SEARAM is replacing it in many cases, which implies to me that it is superior.

What the Iranian General doesn't seem to realize is that a CBG isn't going to cooperatively steam itself into what is essentially a shallow inland sea and say "Here we are!!"

Probable cruise areas are the seas South of Oman, and the Northern Indian Ocean.

wow... you know a lot... it must be some US navy high rank commander... I will go tomorrow to Iranian commanders office and kick them out of office..they are a shame.. they even don,t know basic stuff that even ordinary members here are aware of!

 

[scythian500]

Sink them and make an example

Let,s hope the come off of donkey of ignorance and le,ts hope there will be NO WAR at all...never and ever and every where ... although it is against human's intelligence and morality to act and think to have PEACE

 

[LeGenD]

you,re right with this point. But Iranians that you talked with here are not neither Iranian high rank to know everything nor will be more than normal soldiers in case of a war. totally natioalism and also Shiism is pretty strong amog Iranians but per my observations as we go higher ad higher i ranks they look like more rational i estimation. I,m confident that Iranian forces are more than ready for a competent war for two reasons. Iran has already 8 year war with limited resources to back its forces. We hurt hard with that war although non of Iraqi goals realized. Today Iran is 10 times stroger but still as I always say, Iranian leaders know well both their capabilities and adversaries so I see it totally non sense to think they say, we are ready for a war if there is any. Although I wish no war is ever be here or anywhere.

I believe that higher awareness promotes rationalism and is good for a society in the long run.

Nationalism isn’t a bad thing; a nation which is internally united on ideological grounds is difficult to exploit from within, is easier to mobilize for a national cause, and is less likely to compromise on its national interests.

However, nationalism coupled with rationalism, can be a powerful combination which can be beneficial for a society internally and externally in many ways; this kind of nation is not just hard to exploit internally but is flexible enough to understand geo-political threats and adjust accordingly until it is adequately prepared to tackle them head-on.

It might be that Iranians in leadership positions are more rational then norm, which is good if true. However, Mr. Ahmadinejad committed some serious political blunders and ended-up isolating Iran even further from the International Community which is not good, and his actions cast doubt on confidence in Iranian leadership from International perspective.

I fully understand that Mr. Bush (Jr.) made a shortsighted decision of politically including Iran in the so-called Axis of Evil club, but Iran reacted in irrational manner as well under the leadership of Mr. Ahamdinejad. The latter also adopted a hostile and hardline political stance just like the former and this didn’t help the situation, the latter should have worked hard to improve Iranian image globally and end its isolation.

Please keep in mind that Islam prioritizes peace over aggression in most situations, cooperation with a secular state on political front to minimize or end hostility doesn’t jeopardize the Islamic integrity of an Islamic state if the former is willing to cooperate.

As for the military might, Iranian progress in this field is undeniable but to assume that USA is not closely studying Iranian progress in this field and improving its own capabilities in response is asinine. USA is relatively more resourceful, more technologically competent, more battle-hardened, and is also in a better position to hurt Iran than ever before.

Current geo-political environment demands that Iran should avoid a military confrontation with USA, make an attempt to create a positive political environment in its surroundings, stop threatening Israel, stop challenging GCC alliance for influence in the Middle East, and make an effort to end its political isolation. However, I am not sure how much concession Iranians are willing to give on political front to stabilize its surroundings. I am not suggesting that Iran should become an ally of Israel and/or USA and take a U-turn in its policy for the geo-political issue of Palestine but adopting a threatening posture, funding militias in other regions, and creating a Shia-Sunni divide in the Middle East, are not sound policies.

If you see samples of Iranian made technologies in MADE IN IRAN thread you will get a better idea of what is it Irans current and possible capabilities. Iran still lacking some tech but I ca say %90 is already done. Delivery capabilities of Ira is known every where. Iran already mastered all types of missiles delivery systems. The highest tech is latest Ghaem SLV techology which is +12000 km ICBM if coverted to military version. The CEP of most Iranian delivery systems is now 5 m CEP for all ground to ground and ground to sea and ground to air missiles and 20 CEP for intermediate range ones. Iran already exported some of its weapons to afew friendly couuntries and as far as I know they are very happy with it. A big part of Iranian made systems are of logistic management importance my friend. We have adverseries from 4 sides of the country. Target identification is the easiest part for Iranian forces. They worked a lot on this. A big part of UAV program comes from this need. We have land based navigation systems and deep into enemy line observers. One of the most high tech parts of Iranian forces are their radar capability. There is 3 main layer + one sport layer radar target identification system in a 3000 km ciricle around Iran. Every planes or weapon masses or any ships are monitored in real-time. 24/7. I refer you to the network of Sepehr OTH +3000 km radars with stealth identification capabilites. +1100 km second phase radars joined by other radars of different functions with ranges between 500 to 700 km. a correlating network of short range radar and defence systems and upgraded Cruise, Ballistic and drone capable S-200, Tor M-1, Sayyad 2, 3 and 4 missiles and many fire control radars mostly of Russian origin but all of them are upgraded with new electronics and algorithms to have the system in a unique form than its export versions. The already practiced it and there are many samples on net. Every plane or object taking off in a circle of nearly 3000 kms is monitored and analysied by strtagic experts. Let not forget the pretty high tech Iranian electronic warefare capabilities and since all this technologies and all the algorithms are local, there will be limited threat to them. These all already realized and are in operation. Beside this, there is a huge 22th century system under developement that I can,t say much about but I know it has a unique system in which is unbreakable by any known electronic warfare. It will consist of individual electronic units with cameras, and different sensor mounted on soldiers... multiple central command management systems that subsitute damaged ones automaticly. New algorithms that can,t be broken. This system will make sure all the elements of Iranian forces do their designed job no matter what happens to them or no matter what counter masses are used. This huge program is already under develeopment and so far I,m aware of Central command systems and Iranian future soldier programs that exists. There are other elements that said will remain confidential all the way to the real war.

Well, thanks for providing this information. I am not a military analyst by profession so I am unlikely to speculate about the potential and competence of Iranian security apparatus and how it is likely to cope with militaristic offensive capabilities of a powerful adversary such as USA. I can, however, provide a neutral and professional assessment of Iranian security apparatus from published/credible sources that may help us understand where Iran stands in the grand scheme of military competence and what knowledge Iranians have about the capabilities of their potential enemies.

Iran has managed to develop some impressive technologies which are apparent from its space program such as SLV, satellites, and drones. However, Iran have not managed to convert its SLV program into a viable military offensive option so far, therefore highlighting it as a useful military asset is premature in discussions currently.

As for the effectiveness of Iranian missile arsenal, this disclosure is worth noting:

The operational readiness and capability of both Iran’s operators and missiles remain uncertain. Almost all launches seem to be “white suit” launches prepared by technical expert with long warning and time to both check out and ready the system. There is no way to what real world combat preparation time and readiness really is. Iran stated that its July 2012 Great Prophet VII exercise was more realistic, but there is as yet no way to verify this claim.
Many systems are destroyed in flight during the test. This deprives Iran as well as outside observers of the ability to know what ordinary operators and forces can do. It is unclear whether these premature detonations are accidental, ordered by Iran to avoid providing information to observers, or necessary to prevent the missile from landing in Iran.

In addition;

Figure 2 has already indicated that Iran may be sharply exaggerating the accuracy of its missiles. Although Iran boasts the large arsenal of conventionally-armed missiles of varying ranges and payloads shown in Figure 5 through Figure 10, their seemingly lack of terminal guidance and advanced warheads sharply reduces their military effectiveness. Without the accuracy necessary for conventionally armed missiles to be effective against point or high value targets, they can be used as tools of terror and intimidation to strike at targets throughout the region with little, if any, warning.

It is unclear that Iran has the warfighting ability in the short run to translate its current medium and long-range missiles forces into anything more than a limited “terror” weapon. While Iran is improving its guidance technology, its short and medium range missiles remain blanket weapon systems that can hit a broad area but not a key target point and then only if they are properly targeted and fired, and function reliably.

As Figure 11 shows, the destruction of even a light target with Shahab-1 would likely require over 100 missiles, far too many for any practical military role. This number is smaller for a substantial target such as airfield or radar center, but such military targets which generally have built-in redundancies would require substantial number of missiles to disable.

Iran’s longer-range systems have had too little consistent testing to produce accurate engineering estimates of their reliable circular errors of probability (CEPs) under deployed and operational conditions. As such, they are assumed to have CEPs similar to Shahab-1 and -2 and their military value is believed to be minor, as Iran lacks the numbers of Sejjil-2 and Ghadir-1 to launch sustained volleys.

It is important to understand the difference between theoretical CEP and accuracy based on a statistically large-enough sample to establish a reliable operational estimate. CEP is defined as the level of accuracy that should occur if the system is perfectly aimed, launches under ideal circumstances, and every aspect of the design functions as exactly as it should. It then estimates the radius of the circle that half of the rockets or missiles will land within as determined by the technology of the guidance system. It is not a practical measurement in the sense it does not normally include any input from statistically relevant results and evaluations that establishes the real-world reliability of the system.

In practice, Iran has not conducted sufficient realistic tests of its systems to provide enough data to calculate accuracy and reliability, particularly under field conditions. This is compounded by the problem that missiles rarely achieve stated CEP in practice. As a result, barring the success of Iran’s modernization and accuracy upgrades, many of Iran’s medium-range systems will be lucky to hit within one kilometer distance of their target even if they function properly.

Iran is well aware of this dilemma regarding accuracy. Its primary limitation is that missile guidance technology is technically complex and requires advanced raw materials and considerable expertise to develop and operate. To date, Iran has used spin stabilization and steering vanes to exhaust point of its missiles; the former at best achieves error of roughly 1.5% distance traveled, while the latter reduces missile range. Iran has not developed either the inertial guidance or GPS systems necessary to accurately track its missiles (although the Khalij Fars may have some inertial tracking), and so far has had limited experience with steering fins, gimbaled thrust, or vernier engines to adjust rockets in flight. It is likely that Iran’s ballistic weapons will grow more accurate over time as it develops a pool of experience in steering systems, but Iran has made on public demonstrations in this regard.

The report contains lot of information about this topic so you should make some time to read it fully: http://cryptome.org/2014/03/gulf-mil-balance.pdf

Figure 2 from the aforementioned report:-

It seems that the technical data disagrees with your CEP claims; the most accurate missiles in Iranian arsenal are cruise missiles Kh-55 and Sunburn but Iran has these missiles in limited quantity of 12 and 8 respectively. Iran may have developed some copies of these cruise missiles recently but these are experiments and not fully operational weapons with proven credibility.

Furthermore, it is important to understand that USA is years ahead of all nations in various technological endeavors and fully understands the design mechanisms of various technological systems in use worldwide and how to counter them. Intended point is that what Iran is developing, USA has already developed and then some, and this puts USA in an advantageous position in comparison to Iran (and most nations) because by the time a nation is catching-up or acquiring a technological capability, USA have typically moved ahead and figured out a counter for it.

Im, afraid I don,t know it.. even if I do... do you really expect me to say?? but per my estimates there will be sprawl technics against all ships. both missiles herd and fast boats. and with a single rule of the thumb, we can estimate that with around 50 permanent mobile sites around the southern shores it won,t be less than let,s say 100 missiles at once.. Iran managed to station multiple layer mobile missile launchers... some are as close as Iranian abu mousa and tonbs islands and some are as far as 200 km deep into Iranian soil and hidden in anti-satelitle and anti-radar facilities. All these are my estimates and I can,t be sure coz I,m not a commander in Iran.

Telling me won’t make any difference, I don't work for CIA or something. USA already knows a lot, I am afraid.

If Iran intends to fire 100 missiles in a single attempt, it is likely to deplete its arsenal quickly in this manner. Total inventory of Iranian missiles comprising all types with ranges between 90 and 1200 miles, is around 1000. Among them, few have decent CEP as pointed out earlier.

Firing large number of missiles do not make much difference, precision strikes make difference. Iraq also fired lot of ballistic missiles during the Gulf War on different designated targets, didn’t accomplish anything with this kind of offensive capability.

Furthermore;

A high explosive warhead on a long-range missile presents design problems that limit its lethality compared to bombs, air launched missiles, and cruise missiles. Unless it is almost perfectly fused and designed - or uses cluster munitions that are explosively disseminated at exactly the right altitude and are designed and fused so they are actually lethal against the target type being struck – the damage tends to be limited by the fact that due to warhead design and high reentry speeds the explosion of a unitary warhead is deflected upwards as the warhead hits the earth – vectoring much of its explosive effective where it will do far less damage.

As a result, the damage is significantly less than that caused by a bomb or artillery shell of the same general size. Iran may have cluster munitions on some of its systems, but the presence, character, and effectiveness of such warheads is uncertain from unclassified data and it is not clear that Iran could have conducted enough suitable tests of its longer range systems for even it to have reliable data.

Unless these submunitions are armed with chemical, radiological, or biological agents, they present the problem that each additional submunition imposes extra non-explosive weight on the missile, reducing its effective payload. Further, on an inaccurate missile, the submunitions are still likely to miss the target area; while they increase the chance that one will strike something of value, they are unlikely on their own to cause significant damage. The submunitions that Iran can deploy are also of limited value; while some advanced types can seek out individual tanks and penetrate their thin armor on the top, Iran is more likely to use grenades with an altimeter, meaning they can only injure light structures and individuals.

The lethality of conventional cluster munitions could be substantially higher where shorter-range missiles or rocket could be fired in volley and line of sight observations are possible, but it is one thing to use cluster munitions with a precision-guided air launched bomb or missile, or unguided cluster munitions against exposed infantry, and quite another to fire them almost at random. Until-and if – Iran acquires medium to long-range missiles with precise terminal guidance and/or truly effective warheads using some form of weapon of mass destruction, the lethality of its missiles will be sharply limited.

NOTE: Link of the source for the aforementioned quote already provided above.

Now, to give you some perspective, US is capable of hitting 10,000 different targets simultaneously at minimum, should the need arise, and this is conservative revelation. Upon full-scale mobilization, US might be capable of hitting lot more targets simultaneously and it doesn’t have shortage of warheads and ammo. More importantly, all of these would be precision strikes. USA develops a variety of cruise and ballistic missiles that are highly accurate with proven reliability, and maintains a huge inventory of such arsenal. To give you an idea, USA have around 4000 tomahawk cruise missiles and this is just “one type” in the over-all inventory.

As for anti-radar and anti-satellite facilities, what do you mean by this?

Nothing can hide from ground-penetrating satellite and radar systems/technologies as far as I am aware. USA has the world’s most sophisticated Intel gathering system at its disposal; its legs are even in the handheld gadgets of daily use including Android software system.

US have deployed some special satellites strictly for military use which cannot be jammed and/or interrupted by anti-jamming technologies. In addition, US unmanned space craft such as X-37B is also capable of spying on virtually anything with impunity, even the most protected locations on Earth, and this space craft offers additional layer of Intel gathering for US Intel gathering network.

Furthermore, US is equipping many of its military assets with anti-jamming capabilities which link-up with its satellite network to ensure network centric barrier against jamming technologies from enemies.

They already analysied western forces and capabilities and for sure they managed to do it in a way they have the least possible damages.

I do not deny the possibility of Iran managing to fire some missiles during hostilities but it is not possible to fire large number of missiles without cover of a strong security umbrella from air which Iran certainly lacks at present. Keep in mind that USA have already marked lot of sites in Iran that it recognizes as of military value and it will hit them hard in case of hostilities, many at a time simultaneously. USA can hit enormous number of targets simultaneously upon large-scale mobilization, should the need arise. Iran is likely to suffer enormous damage and loss in military assets in a span of some minutes, forget days. Once USA will establish air superiority in Iran, and it will, everything else would be sitting duck.

This is just a minor glimpse of what US knows about Iranian missile sites: http://cdn.thewire.com/img/upload/2012/02/21/Screen shot 2012-02-21 at 3.51.50 PM.png

In secrecy, US forces have much more detailed profiles of Iranian strategic and military assets. Such information is not disclosed to the public.

Precision weapons are well known..from smart +110 km one tone smart bombs... up to CEP 5 half a tone warhead missiles.. both ballistic and cruise. As far as I know, Iran trying to offset the defensive shileds of western ships and bases by very hight speeds and last stage maneuverable warheads plus MIRVs. Half of Iranian Fateh 110 and khalij e fars missiles are equiped with RAINY warheads that has 30 smaller warheads each 17 kg warhead.

Officially critical assessment presents a vastly different picture of effectiveness of Iranian missile arsenal then what Iranians are fed at domestic level from its local sources. Iranian airforce is toast against USAF and your CEP related revelations are dubious.

Fateh-110 and Khalij Fars have total payload capacity of 500 and 650 kg respectively and they don’t have good CEP (see figure 2). Iran may have these missiles in decent quantity but US ABM systems are capable of tracking and destroying multiple anti-ship missiles simultaneously. Also, firing a large volley of such missiles will be a major issue for Iran during hostilities with USA since the latter would be hitting large number of Iranian military targets with USAF and large number of highly accurate cruise missiles, reduction of theoretical effectiveness and size of volleys from Iran are most likely outcomes under the aforementioned pressures.

This isn’t WW-I during which one side fired with impunity and other side waited for its turn while scrambling for cover. In modern conflicts, even seconds count.

Already responsed. There are many online VIDEOS showed by Iranians on conferences in Tehran... tracking and monitoring US ships in real time. Even though those technologies are relatively old and Iran has much more capable UAVs now...but with those simple UAVs, US ships could n,t discover the monitoring operation for half and hour or more...let aside all the sophisticated radars Iran made operational.

it is 15 years now that Iran focused on this tech. They learned valuable lessons from previous incidents. although Iran is much more capable in make enemy jamming UNEFFECTIVE than offending by jamming western ships. This is my guess but as this aspect is of strategic importance to Iranians I can guess they already surpassed what they need.

Those events occurred in peaceful times. When US forces are on high alert, nothing manages to get close. All activities are monitored 24/7 in real-time in regions surrounding US military assets in 360 degree coverage span with layer upon layer of tracking systems that are fully activated during times of hostilities. And such magnitude of monitoring continues till the duration of major combat operations.

As for Iranian counter to US jamming technologies, seems like you don’t know much in this regard. Iran has limited radar jamming systems in its inventory of Russian design, and Iran cannot effectively blind the entire US Intel gathering network, no nation can do so realistically at present or even in near future.

It is not simple not to Iran and not for US...

USA has vastly superior military assets and much more resourceful network in deployment for military uses that collectively resolve lot of combat related complexities and uncertainties for the mentioned country. Iran doesn’t compares to US in these matters and combat related complexities and uncertainties are consequently a much greater challenge for Iran in comparison accordingly.

US annual military budget: 650 billion USD
Iranian annual military budget: 18 billion USD

Ponder over this difference for a moment.

many many excersies done almost every year and sometimes twice a year... simulation in full scale...remember the nimitz class Iran built? Those are all for this purpose

Iran cannot simulate US military capability in realistic manner, no nation can actually.

Unless Iran is literally granted full access to US military capability to understand and comprehend its internal and external mechanics to fullest, Iran can only rely on its own imaginary illusions about enemy during exercises. Same is true for other countries as well.

However, the aforementioned situation changes for USA due to its technological edge and massive grasp of scientific concepts and procedures in use worldwide. USA can realistically simulate military capability of any nation because of its technological edge over other nations, resourcefulness in general and unparalleled combat experience.

It was not Iranian official stand as far as I know... If I,m not wrong it was made by some MPs in parliment or some commanders not in CHIEF position.. You heard this news but never heard the aftermass that Iranian officials rejected these claims.. Even if they did..it is childish claim... you don,t wanna go to a full scale war..it is just soft war .. although I have heard it is not official

I think that Iranian military commanders knocked some sense into Iranian parliamentarians for their tall claims. Contrary to what an average Iranian may think, Iranian military commanders know their limits against global threats. They may not express fragility in open, but they always have a hunch.

I will give you example of Pakistani COAS when he faced the situation of making a decision regarding threatening postures from US after 9/11:

"My decision was based on the well-being of my people and the best interests of my country – Pakistan always comes first. I war-gamed the United States as an adversary. There would be a violent and angry reaction if we didn’t support the United States. Thus the question was: if we do not join them, can we confront them and withstand the onslaught? The answer was no, we could not, on three counts.

First was our military weakness as compared with the strength of the United States. Our military forces would be destroyed.

Second was our economic weakness. We had no oil, and we did not have the capability to sustain our economy in the face of an attack by the United States.

Third, and worst of all, was our social weakness. We lack the homo-geneity to galvanize the entire nation into an active confrontation. We could not endure a military confrontation with the United States from any point of view.

I also analyzed our national interest. First, India had already tried to step in by offering its bases to the United States. If we did not join the United States, it would accept India’s offer. What would happen then? India would gain a golden opportunity with regard to Kashmir. The Indians might be tempted to undertake a limited offensive there; or, more likely, they would work with the United States and the United Nations to turn the present situation into a permanent status quo. The United States would have certainly obliged.

Second, the security of our strategic assets would be jeopardized. We did not want to lose or damage the military parity that we had achieved with India by becoming a nuclear weapons state. It is no secret that the United States has never been comfortable with a Muslim country acquiring nuclear weapons, and the Americans undoubtedly would have taken the opportunity of an invasion to destroy such weapons. And India, needless to say, would have loved to assist the United States to the hilt.

Third, our economic infrastructure, built over half a century, would have been decimated.

The ultimate question that confronted me was whether it was in our national interest to destroy ourselves for the Taliban."

Source: Amazon.com: In the Line of Fire: A Memoir (9781439150436): Pervez Musharraf: Books

This is inner impartial assessment of a COAS of arguably the strongest Islamic nation in existence at present. Musharraf is a veteran and highly experienced military official, he would have given his life to protect the nation from harm if the situation had demanded for him to do so, however, he as a leader of a nation, had to think rationally about the disastrous impact of war with USA on Pakistan and its long-term survivability.

It is likely that some Iranian military leaders, while brave, do understand the perils of confrontation with a proven global power. They may not be open about this.

I personally believe that Iran is much more internally united than Pakistan on nationalistic level and have much more resilient and stronger economy to facilitate confrontation and/or resistance in case of hostilities. Iran demonstrated the potential of mass mobilization on societal level during confrontation with Iraq on ground much like the latter and is consequently more capable of putting stress on an enemy in a full-scale war then any Islamic nation at present.

However, USA is an entirely different ball-game in comparison to most nations when it comes to military confrontation. Mass mobilization is not effective against US military apparatus in an open confrontation. US forces can only be stressed in occupational phase if they are not deployed in significant numbers and sufficient freedom to crush large-scale civil resistance. I don’t think that USA have occupational plans for Iran in current times, however, it have done its homework for crippling Iran as a functioning society should the situation demands. In the end, Islamic community would be at further loss if another Islamic regional power ends up destroyed at the hands of Western Imperialists.

Do you really expect Iran to close straight of hormuz without a full scale war? it not a kiddy kiddow play
Yes, Iranian military posture is predominantly defensive with limited offensive capability but this is largely due to limited resources of the nation coupled with restrictions imposed on it via sanctions. Comparing to US budget , Iran is much lower as any other nation is. But the official 13 to 16 billion dollars budget of Iran should be at least tripled as Iran made all these with sometimes one fifth of the international price as it is all local and cheap.

Budget fluctuations continue to occur on yearly basis or periodical basis. At present, Iran is touching 18 billion USD mark which is enormous for an Islamic nation on average. Even Pakistan’s military budget is relatively much lower.

A simple search shows that USA and their allies were always into attacking Iran since revolution. specially in 2005 and 2007 when they were even prepared and planned everything and ordered to create a false flag incident in Persian Gulf. It is all known now.. But what happened that they realized the should not attack..this is another story... Iran was part of war on terror if you remember axis of evil speech of W. He said Every nation who is not with us is against us... Iran never invaded any country in more than 2 centuries now. All these non sense God FATHER of the world game US trying to play made Iranians become even more firm with their goal to dismantle this crazy, childish , stupid world order and make itself as strong as he can so he can redraw the play for all nations benefit.

Yes, USA is absolutely prepared for war with Iran; this is apparent from lot of activities, reports and political developments. However, Iranian problem does not just ends at USA; it persists with geo-political disputes with GCC in the Middle East. Unfortunately, global Islamic community itself is split on political and ideological grounds. So what do about this mess?

USA only stands to gain from rifts within the global Islamic community. Best way to counter US influence on the global Islamic community is for the Islamic community to forge unity on all levels and become technologically and economically self-sufficient but this seems to be dream. Muslims were not supposed to be internally split like they are in current times.

United we stand, divided we fall.

A single Islamic nation does not stand much of a chance at countering US influence and hegemony on its own. However, a united bloc of strong and independent Islamic nations can be a force to be reckoned with at-least psychologically with much greater economic implications then the aftermath of dealing with a single nation at a time.

You as I can see is pretty intimated with western propaganda claims.. If US commanders were in same mindset as you are then they would have invaded Iran a while ago. No army in this world is MIGHTY... every army has its weaknesses...you only need to realize it and plan for it and update your plans with their changes... You know what with all the respect I have for you pakistani guys, I see you, think, act and feared as west WANTS YOU to be. You made their dominance game EASY. IF you recall those small bare hand groups of Hizbullah and Hamas and Others and their guts to confront a 10000 times stronger (on paper) armies and seen the results. (hisbullah not only still exists but grow stronger day by day).. then you might for second think that maybe winning in a war or defending your country in case of Iran, Is not as easy as the game of comparing chevy Camaro 2014 Vs Ford Mustang. War has tens of aspects. US regular capabilities are not in par with irregular Iran's capabilities my friend... They can start the war and hit us hard..but the fact that 1- it is almost unknown what to expect from Iran in real war and 2- irregular unorthodox consequences of inside war and after math of it.. leave a huge room of hesitation among western leaders... you know why nobody could wipe Alghaeda or taliban or ISIS out yet despite all the casulties? because they know they have no good chance in weapon Vs weapons basis..then they go to find weaknesses and hit enemy hard from those points... irregular Technics that are known in hundreds..so, a wise military expert would take evrythig into consideration when they want to plan an invasion..

I am not influenced by Western propaganda and I am not presenting propaganda. I am realist, thanks in part due to the nature of my personal career.

You should be thankful to Allah Almighty that your nation has not met the same fate that your neighborly rival Iraq have endured but Iranians should not foolishly assume that their nation is immune to same fate. Now that Iraq is out of the picture as a viable threat, Iran is now much more likely to be targeted and vulnerable. Earlier, Iraq kept US busy along with War on Terror but both are no longer major conflicts in current times and US is now free to act against another regime.

US military capability is MIGHTY in current times, whether you want to believe this or not. It has been for a long time and has continued to evolve and improve with passage of time to tackle emerging threats and challenges. In history, mighty forces have emerged and utterly destroyed their rivals in conflicts. Those who don’t learn from history are eventually doomed.

Pakistan is doing whatever it feels necessary to safeguard its interests and itself. Thankfully, Musharraf turned out to be a sane leader; he saved Pakistan from utter devastation. It is easy to start a conflict, but what some often fail to realize is that lives of millions are on the line and can be destroyed due to emotional decision-making of a single person. People spent their entire lives to build a viable livelihood for themselves and their families but all is lost in a matter of moments.

Tell me, what did perpetrators of 9/11 event gained from such an event? Did Mr. Bush suffer? Did it resolve Palestinian issue? Nope. Millions of Muslims however perished and several Islamic nations suffered. And Pakistan is not responsible for this mess.

Hezbollah is strong, really? I didn’t realize that Hezbollah is made-up of immortals that are immune to disastrous impact of war. In reality, war takes toll on any force involved. Hezbollah endured the set-back it suffered from war with Israel because it doesn’t stands to lose as much as Lebanon itself in case of a conflict with Israel. Hezbollah is more of an ideological force which exists in hearts and minds of a segment of Lebanese society rather than a "nation proper" which have lot of assets of value to lose from a conflict. In addition, USA is in a much better position to tackle Hezbollah like threats on the ground should the need arise in comparison to Israel because it is relatively much stronger and resourceful and it cannot be harassed by Katyusha rocket barrage in the same manner.

As for threat of Iranian irregulars, they will be easier to defeat then Iranian regulars actually if they adopt human wave tactics and/or seek open confrontation with US forces. But this is not my point.

It is hard to assume that Americans don’t understand the perils of war after experiencing so many conflicts. Destroying Iranian security apparatus and economy is not much of an issue for USA; further regional destabilization is indeed an issue however. In modern times, human societies are enormous in size in the context of population and wars can ruin lives of millions and destabilize an entire region for a long period and destabilization fuels terrorism and radicalism.

If Al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS are your benchmark for competence in a war then I really pity your judgment. The former two have gained nothing from the conflict, lost many members however and got reduced to using IEDs and terrorist activities to fuel destabilization on regional level. They have achieved nothing significant on strategic and political level so far. Al-Qaeda is nearly dismantled but Taliban somehow survives in part due to American leniency in dealing with it. USA actually recognizes Taliban as an ideologically motivated religious and political movement in Afghanistan and it is virtually impossible to eradicate it completely without changing the mindset of Pashtun populace in both Pakistan and Afghanistan via educational efforts or eliminating this populace in concentration camps Nazi-style. I doubt that US would opt for Nazi-style persecution strategy in any war unless something big happens on US mainland to antagonize its populace to this much intensity against an identified culprit. ISIS is relatively newer ideological movement and its troubles have just begun since US have joined the effort to undo its gains. In addition, US is in process of developing robotic forces to counter these type of asymmetric threats in the future.

Al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS shouldn’t be the benchmarks to tackle US influence for any (sane) Islamic nation. An Islamic nation should be militarily, technologically, and economically strong and independent enough to make a conflict theoretically costly enough for USA to deter it from aggression in the first place but this seems to be a far-fetched idea in current times unfortunately.

Already responded... one should always ask himself the question of WHY despite all Israeli and western claims that we must invade Iran...why so far and we are in 2015...this dream still is a dream? Don,t tell me they prefer diplomatic solutions.. they always imposed their will militarily as soon as they wanted something.. if you see they can,t leave the negotiations...think of a fact that maybe they already tried to do the same with IRan ..the same as they did to Afgh and Iraq and libya and Serb....etc...but the found out that this war should not be unleashed... it is not for their good... Western commanders are much more wiser than people think... they won,t start a war unless they are sure they finish it soon and with affordable casualties... US likes to invade a weak nation to show he is almighty... but think why most expects talk about a possible WW3 scenario in case they go to war with Iran... If it was only empty claims or exaggeration from Iranian side then all millions of western experts should not be fooled..right?

Covered above, Iraq and Osama Bin Laden kept US busy for several years. Not anymore.

War with Iran is not likely to commence WW-III, this is wishful thinking on your part. Conflict with Iran is likely to remain regional. At maximum, Iran might motivate Hezbollah to harass Israel but this can backfire further because Israel is likely to be better prepared to contend with Hezbollah at present.

As for other conflicts that you cited, USA has fulfilled most of its military-focused objectives in them. Long-term political objectives affiliated with these conflicts will take time to be fruitful. Do also keep in mind the examples of Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Bosnia, and Kuwait; these are some success stories. Even Vietnam is slowly politically
tilting towards US due to its continuous rift with China.

Also, do you read history? Do you really believe that US have committed acts of aggression against only weak nations? You conveniently forgot about Germany (WW-II), Japan (WW-II), USSR (Cold War) and Iraq (Gulf War, 1991). These weren’t weak nations during the referred times.

I keep that in mind... we don,t have experience...nor enough mind to defende ourselves...then nothing to be worried of... West will crash Iran if they want to... yes, if they want to!

Honestly, I don’t intend to scare you or dampen your nationalism. I am simply trying to convey you some ground realities of modern times. True Muslims are certainly defined by bravery. However, foolishness, lack of unity, lack of competence, and lack of awareness of ground realities of the world are some of the greatest issues that plague Muslims in modern times holistically, these shortcomings must be addressed ASAP.

Thus far, Iran is not prepared to tackle US on its own, and Iran's current foreign policy is not likely to help its situation and that of the surrounding region long-term.

 

[scythian500]

OMG>>>

Nationalism isn’t a bad thing; a nation which is internally united on ideological grounds is difficult to exploit from within, is easier to mobilize for a national cause, and is less likely to compromise on its national interests.

However, nationalism coupled with rationalism, can be a powerful combination which can be beneficial for a society internally and externally in many ways; this kind of nation is not just hard to exploit internally but is flexible enough to understand geo-political threats and adjust accordingly until it is adequately prepared to tackle them head-on.

It might be that Iranians in leadership positions are more rational then norm, which is good if true. However, Mr. Ahmadinejad committed some serious political blunders and ended-up isolating Iran even further from the International Community which is not good, and his actions cast doubt on confidence in Iranian leadership from International perspective.

I fully understand that Mr. Bush (Jr.) made a shortsighted decision of politically including Iran in the so-called Axis of Evil club, but Iran reacted in irrational manner as well under the leadership of Mr. Ahamdinejad. The latter also adopted a hostile and hardline political stance just like the former and this didn’t help the situation, the latter should have worked hard to improve Iranian image globally and end its isolation.

Please keep in mind that Islam prioritizes peace over aggression in most situations, cooperation with a secular state on political front to minimize or end hostility doesn’t jeopardize the Islamic integrity of an Islamic state if the former is willing to cooperate.

As for the military might, Iranian progress in this field is undeniable but to assume that USA is not closely studying Iranian progress in this field and improving its own capabilities in response is asinine. USA is relatively more resourceful, more technologically competent, more battle-hardened, and is also in a better position to hurt Iran than ever before.

Current geo-political environment demands that Iran should avoid a military confrontation with USA, make an attempt to create a positive political environment in its surroundings, stop threatening Israel, stop challenging GCC alliance for influence in the Middle East, and make an effort to end its political isolation. However, I am not sure how much concession Iranians are willing to give on political front to stabilize its surroundings. I am not suggesting that Iran should become an ally of Israel and/or USA and take a U-turn in its policy for the geo-political issue of Palestine but adopting a threatening posture, funding militias in other regions, and creating a Shia-Sunni divide in the Middle East, are not sound policies.



Well, thanks for providing this information. I am not a military analyst by profession so I am unlikely to speculate about the potential and competence of Iranian security apparatus and how it is likely to cope with militaristic offensive capabilities of a powerful adversary such as USA. I can, however, provide a neutral and professional assessment of Iranian security apparatus from published/credible sources that may help us understand where Iran stands in the grand scheme of military competence and what knowledge Iranians have about the capabilities of their potential enemies.

Iran has managed to develop some impressive technologies which are apparent from its space program such as SLV, satellites, and drones. However, Iran have not managed to convert its SLV program into a viable military offensive option so far, therefore highlighting it as a useful military asset is premature in discussions currently.

As for the effectiveness of Iranian missile arsenal, this disclosure is worth noting:

The operational readiness and capability of both Iran’s operators and missiles remain uncertain. Almost all launches seem to be “white suit” launches prepared by technical expert with long warning and time to both check out and ready the system. There is no way to what real world combat preparation time and readiness really is. Iran stated that its July 2012 Great Prophet VII exercise was more realistic, but there is as yet no way to verify this claim.
Many systems are destroyed in flight during the test. This deprives Iran as well as outside observers of the ability to know what ordinary operators and forces can do. It is unclear whether these premature detonations are accidental, ordered by Iran to avoid providing information to observers, or necessary to prevent the missile from landing in Iran.

In addition;

Figure 2 has already indicated that Iran may be sharply exaggerating the accuracy of its missiles. Although Iran boasts the large arsenal of conventionally-armed missiles of varying ranges and payloads shown in Figure 5 through Figure 10, their seemingly lack of terminal guidance and advanced warheads sharply reduces their military effectiveness. Without the accuracy necessary for conventionally armed missiles to be effective against point or high value targets, they can be used as tools of terror and intimidation to strike at targets throughout the region with little, if any, warning.

It is unclear that Iran has the warfighting ability in the short run to translate its current medium and long-range missiles forces into anything more than a limited “terror” weapon. While Iran is improving its guidance technology, its short and medium range missiles remain blanket weapon systems that can hit a broad area but not a key target point and then only if they are properly targeted and fired, and function reliably.

As Figure 11 shows, the destruction of even a light target with Shahab-1 would likely require over 100 missiles, far too many for any practical military role. This number is smaller for a substantial target such as airfield or radar center, but such military targets which generally have built-in redundancies would require substantial number of missiles to disable.

Iran’s longer-range systems have had too little consistent testing to produce accurate engineering estimates of their reliable circular errors of probability (CEPs) under deployed and operational conditions. As such, they are assumed to have CEPs similar to Shahab-1 and -2 and their military value is believed to be minor, as Iran lacks the numbers of Sejjil-2 and Ghadir-1 to launch sustained volleys.

It is important to understand the difference between theoretical CEP and accuracy based on a statistically large-enough sample to establish a reliable operational estimate. CEP is defined as the level of accuracy that should occur if the system is perfectly aimed, launches under ideal circumstances, and every aspect of the design functions as exactly as it should. It then estimates the radius of the circle that half of the rockets or missiles will land within as determined by the technology of the guidance system. It is not a practical measurement in the sense it does not normally include any input from statistically relevant results and evaluations that establishes the real-world reliability of the system.

In practice, Iran has not conducted sufficient realistic tests of its systems to provide enough data to calculate accuracy and reliability, particularly under field conditions. This is compounded by the problem that missiles rarely achieve stated CEP in practice. As a result, barring the success of Iran’s modernization and accuracy upgrades, many of Iran’s medium-range systems will be lucky to hit within one kilometer distance of their target even if they function properly.

Iran is well aware of this dilemma regarding accuracy. Its primary limitation is that missile guidance technology is technically complex and requires advanced raw materials and considerable expertise to develop and operate. To date, Iran has used spin stabilization and steering vanes to exhaust point of its missiles; the former at best achieves error of roughly 1.5% distance traveled, while the latter reduces missile range. Iran has not developed either the inertial guidance or GPS systems necessary to accurately track its missiles (although the Khalij Fars may have some inertial tracking), and so far has had limited experience with steering fins, gimbaled thrust, or vernier engines to adjust rockets in flight. It is likely that Iran’s ballistic weapons will grow more accurate over time as it develops a pool of experience in steering systems, but Iran has made on public demonstrations in this regard.

The report contains lot of information about this topic so you should make some time to read it fully: http://cryptome.org/2014/03/gulf-mil-balance.pdf

Figure 2 from the aforementioned report:-

It seems that the technical data disagrees with your CEP claims; the most accurate missiles in Iranian arsenal are cruise missiles Kh-55 and Sunburn but Iran has these missiles in limited quantity of 12 and 8 respectively. Iran may have developed some copies of these cruise missiles recently but these are experiments and not fully operational weapons with proven credibility.

Furthermore, it is important to understand that USA is years ahead of all nations in various technological endeavors and fully understands the design mechanisms of various technological systems in use worldwide and how to counter them. Intended point is that what Iran is developing, USA has already developed and then some, and this puts USA in an advantageous position in comparison to Iran (and most nations) because by the time a nation is catching-up or acquiring a technological capability, USA have typically moved ahead and figured out a counter for it.



Telling me won’t make any difference, I don't work for CIA or something. USA already knows a lot, I am afraid.

If Iran intends to fire 100 missiles in a single attempt, it is likely to deplete its arsenal quickly in this manner. Total inventory of Iranian missiles comprising all types with ranges between 90 and 1200 miles, is around 1000. Among them, few have decent CEP as pointed out earlier.

Firing large number of missiles do not make much difference, precision strikes make difference. Iraq also fired lot of ballistic missiles during the Gulf War on different designated targets, didn’t accomplish anything with this kind of offensive capability.

Furthermore;

A high explosive warhead on a long-range missile presents design problems that limit its lethality compared to bombs, air launched missiles, and cruise missiles. Unless it is almost perfectly fused and designed - or uses cluster munitions that are explosively disseminated at exactly the right altitude and are designed and fused so they are actually lethal against the target type being struck – the damage tends to be limited by the fact that due to warhead design and high reentry speeds the explosion of a unitary warhead is deflected upwards as the warhead hits the earth – vectoring much of its explosive effective where it will do far less damage.

As a result, the damage is significantly less than that caused by a bomb or artillery shell of the same general size. Iran may have cluster munitions on some of its systems, but the presence, character, and effectiveness of such warheads is uncertain from unclassified data and it is not clear that Iran could have conducted enough suitable tests of its longer range systems for even it to have reliable data.

Unless these submunitions are armed with chemical, radiological, or biological agents, they present the problem that each additional submunition imposes extra non-explosive weight on the missile, reducing its effective payload. Further, on an inaccurate missile, the submunitions are still likely to miss the target area; while they increase the chance that one will strike something of value, they are unlikely on their own to cause significant damage. The submunitions that Iran can deploy are also of limited value; while some advanced types can seek out individual tanks and penetrate their thin armor on the top, Iran is more likely to use grenades with an altimeter, meaning they can only injure light structures and individuals.

The lethality of conventional cluster munitions could be substantially higher where shorter-range missiles or rocket could be fired in volley and line of sight observations are possible, but it is one thing to use cluster munitions with a precision-guided air launched bomb or missile, or unguided cluster munitions against exposed infantry, and quite another to fire them almost at random. Until-and if – Iran acquires medium to long-range missiles with precise terminal guidance and/or truly effective warheads using some form of weapon of mass destruction, the lethality of its missiles will be sharply limited.

NOTE: Link of the source for the aforementioned quote already provided above.

Now, to give you some perspective, US is capable of hitting 10,000 different targets simultaneously at minimum, should the need arise, and this is conservative revelation. Upon full-scale mobilization, US might be capable of hitting lot more targets simultaneously and it doesn’t have shortage of warheads and ammo. More importantly, all of these would be precision strikes. USA develops a variety of cruise and ballistic missiles that are highly accurate with proven reliability, and maintains a huge inventory of such arsenal. To give you an idea, USA have around 4000 tomahawk cruise missiles and this is just “one type” in the over-all inventory.

As for anti-radar and anti-satellite facilities, what do you mean by this?

Nothing can hide from ground-penetrating satellite and radar systems/technologies as far as I am aware. USA has the world’s most sophisticated Intel gathering system at its disposal; its legs are even in the handheld gadgets of daily use including Android software system.

US have deployed some special satellites strictly for military use which cannot be jammed and/or interrupted by anti-jamming technologies. In addition, US unmanned space craft such as X-37B is also capable of spying on virtually anything with impunity, even the most protected locations on Earth, and this space craft offers additional layer of Intel gathering for US Intel gathering network.

Furthermore, US is equipping many of its military assets with anti-jamming capabilities which link-up with its satellite network to ensure network centric barrier against jamming technologies from enemies.



I do not deny the possibility of Iran managing to fire some missiles during hostilities but it is not possible to fire large number of missiles without cover of a strong security umbrella from air which Iran certainly lacks at present. Keep in mind that USA have already marked lot of sites in Iran that it recognizes as of military value and it will hit them hard in case of hostilities, many at a time simultaneously. USA can hit enormous number of targets simultaneously upon large-scale mobilization, should the need arise. Iran is likely to suffer enormous damage and loss in military assets in a span of some minutes, forget days. Once USA will establish air superiority in Iran, and it will, everything else would be sitting duck.

This is just a minor glimpse of what US knows about Iranian missile sites: http://cdn.thewire.com/img/upload/2012/02/21/Screen shot 2012-02-21 at 3.51.50 PM.png

In secrecy, US forces have much more detailed profiles of Iranian strategic and military assets. Such information is not disclosed to the public.



Officially critical assessment presents a vastly different picture of effectiveness of Iranian missile arsenal then what Iranians are fed at domestic level from its local sources. Iranian airforce is toast against USAF and your CEP related revelations are dubious.

Fateh-110 and Khalij Fars have total payload capacity of 500 and 650 kg respectively and they don’t have good CEP (see figure 2). Iran may have these missiles in decent quantity but US ABM systems are capable of tracking and destroying multiple anti-ship missiles simultaneously. Also, firing a large volley of such missiles will be a major issue for Iran during hostilities with USA since the latter would be hitting large number of Iranian military targets with USAF and large number of highly accurate cruise missiles, reduction of theoretical effectiveness and size of volleys from Iran are most likely outcomes under the aforementioned pressures.

This isn’t WW-I during which one side fired with impunity and other side waited for its turn while scrambling for cover. In modern conflicts, even seconds count.



Those events occurred in peaceful times. When US forces are on high alert, nothing manages to get close. All activities are monitored 24/7 in real-time in regions surrounding US military assets in 360 degree coverage span with layer upon layer of tracking systems that are fully activated during times of hostilities. And such magnitude of monitoring continues till the duration of major combat operations.

As for Iranian counter to US jamming technologies, seems like you don’t know much in this regard. Iran has limited radar jamming systems in its inventory of Russian design, and Iran cannot effectively blind the entire US Intel gathering network, no nation can do so realistically at present or even in near future.


USA has vastly superior military assets and much more resourceful network in deployment for military uses that collectively resolve lot of combat related complexities and uncertainties for the mentioned country. Iran doesn’t compares to US in these matters and combat related complexities and uncertainties are consequently a much greater challenge for Iran in comparison accordingly.

US annual military budget: 650 billion USD
Iranian annual military budget: 18 billion USD

Ponder over this difference for a moment.



Iran cannot simulate US military capability in realistic manner, no nation can actually.

Unless Iran is literally granted full access to US military capability to understand and comprehend its internal and external mechanics to fullest, Iran can only rely on its own imaginary illusions about enemy during exercises. Same is true for other countries as well.

However, the aforementioned situation changes for USA due to its technological edge and massive grasp of scientific concepts and procedures in use worldwide. USA can realistically simulate military capability of any nation because of its technological edge over other nations, resourcefulness in general and unparalleled combat experience.



I think that Iranian military commanders knocked some sense into Iranian parliamentarians for their tall claims. Contrary to what an average Iranian may think, Iranian military commanders know their limits against global threats. They may not express fragility in open, but they always have a hunch.

I will give you example of Pakistani COAS when he faced the situation of making a decision regarding threatening postures from US after 9/11:

"My decision was based on the well-being of my people and the best interests of my country – Pakistan always comes first. I war-gamed the United States as an adversary. There would be a violent and angry reaction if we didn’t support the United States. Thus the question was: if we do not join them, can we confront them and withstand the onslaught? The answer was no, we could not, on three counts.

First was our military weakness as compared with the strength of the United States. Our military forces would be destroyed.

Second was our economic weakness. We had no oil, and we did not have the capability to sustain our economy in the face of an attack by the United States.

Third, and worst of all, was our social weakness. We lack the homo-geneity to galvanize the entire nation into an active confrontation. We could not endure a military confrontation with the United States from any point of view.

I also analyzed our national interest. First, India had already tried to step in by offering its bases to the United States. If we did not join the United States, it would accept India’s offer. What would happen then? India would gain a golden opportunity with regard to Kashmir. The Indians might be tempted to undertake a limited offensive there; or, more likely, they would work with the United States and the United Nations to turn the present situation into a permanent status quo. The United States would have certainly obliged.

Second, the security of our strategic assets would be jeopardized. We did not want to lose or damage the military parity that we had achieved with India by becoming a nuclear weapons state. It is no secret that the United States has never been comfortable with a Muslim country acquiring nuclear weapons, and the Americans undoubtedly would have taken the opportunity of an invasion to destroy such weapons. And India, needless to say, would have loved to assist the United States to the hilt.

Third, our economic infrastructure, built over half a century, would have been decimated.

The ultimate question that confronted me was whether it was in our national interest to destroy ourselves for the Taliban."

Source: Amazon.com: In the Line of Fire: A Memoir (9781439150436): Pervez Musharraf: Books

This is inner impartial assessment of a COAS of arguably the strongest Islamic nation in existence at present. Musharraf is a veteran and highly experienced military official, he would have given his life to protect the nation from harm if the situation had demanded for him to do so, however, he as a leader of a nation, had to think rationally about the disastrous impact of war with USA on Pakistan and its long-term survivability.

It is likely that some Iranian military leaders, while brave, do understand the perils of confrontation with a proven global power. They may not be open about this.

I personally believe that Iran is much more internally united than Pakistan on nationalistic level and have much more resilient and stronger economy to facilitate confrontation and/or resistance in case of hostilities. Iran demonstrated the potential of mass mobilization on societal level during confrontation with Iraq on ground much like the latter and is consequently more capable of putting stress on an enemy in a full-scale war then any Islamic nation at present.

However, USA is an entirely different ball-game in comparison to most nations when it comes to military confrontation. Mass mobilization is not effective against US military apparatus in an open confrontation. US forces can only be stressed in occupational phase if they are not deployed in significant numbers and sufficient freedom to crush large-scale civil resistance. I don’t think that USA have occupational plans for Iran in current times, however, it have done its homework for crippling Iran as a functioning society should the situation demands. In the end, Islamic community would be at further loss if another Islamic regional power ends up destroyed at the hands of Western Imperialists.



Budget fluctuations continue to occur on yearly basis or periodical basis. At present, Iran is touching 18 billion USD mark which is enormous for an Islamic nation on average. Even Pakistan’s military budget is relatively much lower.



Yes, USA is absolutely prepared for war with Iran; this is apparent from lot of activities, reports and political developments. However, Iranian problem does not just ends at USA; it persists with geo-political disputes with GCC in the Middle East. Unfortunately, global Islamic community itself is split on political and ideological grounds. So what do about this mess?

USA only stands to gain from rifts within the global Islamic community. Best way to counter US influence on the global Islamic community is for the Islamic community to forge unity on all levels and become technologically and economically self-sufficient but this seems to be dream. Muslims were not supposed to be internally split like they are in current times.

United we stand, divided we fall.

A single Islamic nation does not stand much of a chance at countering US influence and hegemony on its own. However, a united bloc of strong and independent Islamic nations can be a force to be reckoned with at-least psychologically with much greater economic implications then the aftermath of dealing with a single nation at a time.



I am not influenced by Western propaganda and I am not presenting propaganda. I am realist, thanks in part due to the nature of my personal career.

You should be thankful to Allah Almighty that your nation has not met the same fate that your neighborly rival Iraq have endured but Iranians should not foolishly assume that their nation is immune to same fate. Now that Iraq is out of the picture as a viable threat, Iran is now much more likely to be targeted and vulnerable. Earlier, Iraq kept US busy along with War on Terror but both are no longer major conflicts in current times and US is now free to act against another regime.

US military capability is MIGHTY in current times, whether you want to believe this or not. It has been for a long time and has continued to evolve and improve with passage of time to tackle emerging threats and challenges. In history, mighty forces have emerged and utterly destroyed their rivals in conflicts. Those who don’t learn from history are eventually doomed.

Pakistan is doing whatever it feels necessary to safeguard its interests and itself. Thankfully, Musharraf turned out to be a sane leader; he saved Pakistan from utter devastation. It is easy to start a conflict, but what some often fail to realize is that lives of millions are on the line and can be destroyed due to emotional decision-making of a single person. People spent their entire lives to build a viable livelihood for themselves and their families but all is lost in a matter of moments.

Tell me, what did perpetrators of 9/11 event gained from such an event? Did Mr. Bush suffer? Did it resolve Palestinian issue? Nope. Millions of Muslims however perished and several Islamic nations suffered. And Pakistan is not responsible for this mess.

Hezbollah is strong, really? I didn’t realize that Hezbollah is made-up of immortals that are immune to disastrous impact of war. In reality, war takes toll on any force involved. Hezbollah endured the set-back it suffered from war with Israel because it doesn’t stands to lose as much as Lebanon itself in case of a conflict with Israel. Hezbollah is more of an ideological force which exists in hearts and minds of a segment of Lebanese society rather than a "nation proper" which have lot of assets of value to lose from a conflict. In addition, USA is in a much better position to tackle Hezbollah like threats on the ground should the need arise in comparison to Israel because it is relatively much stronger and resourceful and it cannot be harassed by Katyusha rocket barrage in the same manner.

As for threat of Iranian irregulars, they will be easier to defeat then Iranian regulars actually if they adopt human wave tactics and/or seek open confrontation with US forces. But this is not my point.

It is hard to assume that Americans don’t understand the perils of war after experiencing so many conflicts. Destroying Iranian security apparatus and economy is not much of an issue for USA; further regional destabilization is indeed an issue however. In modern times, human societies are enormous in size in the context of population and wars can ruin lives of millions and destabilize an entire region for a long period and destabilization fuels terrorism and radicalism.

If Al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS are your benchmark for competence in a war then I really pity your judgment. The former two have gained nothing from the conflict, lost many members however and got reduced to using IEDs and terrorist activities to fuel destabilization on regional level. They have achieved nothing significant on strategic and political level so far. Al-Qaeda is nearly dismantled but Taliban somehow survives in part due to American leniency in dealing with it. USA actually recognizes Taliban as an ideologically motivated religious and political movement in Afghanistan and it is virtually impossible to eradicate it completely without changing the mindset of Pashtun populace in both Pakistan and Afghanistan via educational efforts or eliminating this populace in concentration camps Nazi-style. I doubt that US would opt for Nazi-style persecution strategy in any war unless something big happens on US mainland to antagonize its populace to this much intensity against an identified culprit. ISIS is relatively newer ideological movement and its troubles have just begun since US have joined the effort to undo its gains. In addition, US is in process of developing robotic forces to counter these type of asymmetric threats in the future.

Al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS shouldn’t be the benchmarks to tackle US influence for any (sane) Islamic nation. An Islamic nation should be militarily, technologically, and economically strong and independent enough to make a conflict theoretically costly enough for USA to deter it from aggression in the first place but this seems to be a far-fetched idea in current times unfortunately.



Covered above, Iraq and Osama Bin Laden kept US busy for several years. Not anymore.

War with Iran is not likely to commence WW-III, this is wishful thinking on your part. Conflict with Iran is likely to remain regional. At maximum, Iran might motivate Hezbollah to harass Israel but this can backfire further because Israel is likely to be better prepared to contend with Hezbollah at present.

As for other conflicts that you cited, USA has fulfilled most of its military-focused objectives in them. Long-term political objectives affiliated with these conflicts will take time to be fruitful. Do also keep in mind the examples of Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Bosnia, and Kuwait; these are some success stories. Even Vietnam is slowly politically
tilting towards US due to its continuous rift with China.

Also, do you read history? Do you really believe that US have committed acts of aggression against only weak nations? You conveniently forgot about Germany (WW-II), Japan (WW-II), USSR (Cold War) and Iraq (Gulf War, 1991). These weren’t weak nations during the referred times.


Honestly, I don’t intend to scare you or dampen your nationalism. I am simply trying to convey you some ground realities of modern times. True Muslims are certainly defined by bravery. However, foolishness, lack of unity, lack of competence, and lack of awareness of ground realities of the world are some of the greatest issues that plague Muslims in modern times holistically, these shortcomings must be addressed ASAP.

Thus far, Iran is not prepared to tackle US on its own, and Iran's current foreign policy is not likely to help its situation and that of the surrounding region long-term.

it takes years to read your book and a few more years to comment on it... what a determination you got in there...

Many parts of your book is true and I can,t deny it... specially those parts talking about Iranian limitations.... all I can say is that:
1- US been determined and decided to attack Iran many times in last at least 20 years.. The boldest decision is what later published unclassified about US forces getting read to fire and planes ready to fly in 2007. I have read from both Iranian and US sources that they really wanted to finish the long desired job. On thing I, as an average joe, would conclude is that the OVERALL balance of lethality has definitely changed somehow in a few occasions. Otherwise, who does n,t not know American desire to finish Iran once and for all... I,m not claiming Iran is stronger US in any way, It is a case of a bigger force wants to achieve some goal and the smaller force prevent the invader from achieving their goals..this is a victory for the smaller one as first, they never started the war with objectives..second, invader never achieved their goals. My personal believe is that American commanders regreting day after day why they did not attack Iran yesterday. Believe me brother, If for a SECOND US forces be sure they achieve what they want by attacking weaker Iran, they won,t hesitate a millisecond.
2- Your sources are old relative to what Iran has achieved in CEP of its missile arsenal and navigation systems. I know this coz I know this from reliable sources and some other stuff that naturally I can not disclose. It is not exaggeration as I,m not into believing what I hear my friend. I have heard many other stuff that I don,t believe it unless I verify it by myself or my reliable sources. I agree that there is a propaganda in Iran for local consumption and it is alright as all other countries do the same. They need to inject security and safety to their potential soldiers in case of a war. Iranian technologies in almost every field of science and tech (from stem cells, nano tech down to weaponry systems) upgrades in a very fast pace. The total research papers from Iranian scientists inside Iran has been doubling every two or three years. Iran has actually the fastest pace in science and tech growth in all world. This applies to current and future weaponry developments. This became pretty expected and routine for us in Iran to see some key techs achieved before we expected it. The young Iranian scientists are pretty excited about their achievements and they work hard to offset the time they are behind and so far sooo Good. CEP story is nothing secret even in Iranian media. 5 years ago, there were formal stories about how big CEP of Iranian missiles are. This led to a very special order to some Iranian R&D and high tech firms to focus on this problem. The CEP around 2009 or 2010 of I,m not wrong was something like your table. CEPs like 1 km for a 700 km ballistic missile. I have read an interview with one military industry high rank officer a few months ago that they used to invite the commanders to show them that they could achieve CEP of 500 m for their ballistics missiles and they expected a cheerful prize and appreciation for their work!! they said, exactly when they expected an applaud, the commanders used to say "Thanks for this achievement but make it 250 m of CEP.... this happened a few times that even some experts in those r & D centers became sad. This continued until mid 2013 (if I recall it correct) when they finally reduced the CEP to 5 meters for Spot-hitter missiles of types like Fateh-110, Khalij e fars or a few other short range ballistics... my latest verification is 20 meters for MRBMs. not all models but those strategic ones. For others I know they installed rain style cluster warheads to hit airports, airfields or bases. Even recently read some analysis from Israeili experts about this dangerous CEPS of less than 20m or 10 meters (as they estimated for fateh 110 and khalij e fars). This is exactly why Israeil panicky attacked some so called claimed shipments of these missiles to syria and hizbullah.
3- I agree USA is pretty much a head in many systems and techs in world scale but...a big but...USA was decades a head in tech and weaponry back in Vietnam war or other wars..but it did not end up on their favor at the end... I know you get my point.. I admire Americans creating an environment to attract all top minds of science and tech to USA to work for them... This is of their good management... Iran itself suffers alot from brain drain specially to US... They have a lot to offer...but my good brother... There is a war on papers and a war on battle field... No one can be sure that they win if they have better guns... specially today that war comes in a much bigger package of lethal tools... from political and economical warfare, to cyber warfare... The was an Fbi report 3 days ago about Iran having a very serious army of cyber army specialists that can literally hurt US and Us citizens even worse than fire and missiles... Iranians are pretty creative with active minds... they face a limitation (air force for example) , they find a substitute... they lack depth of upper hand...they manage to extend their proxies deep into enemy lines... I never underestimated american military power, but at the same time, I have seen things that proves to me that Iran has a lot to offer when the time comes...
4- Don,t make yourself limited to some analysis on Iranian power as I have seen absolute opposite from the same kind of experts (western). if it was that KNOWN that iran posses this weapon or that weapon and this weapon is not worthy and other one does not have any military value, then why so much hesitation...why so much uncertainty about REAL in battlefield value of Iranian weaponry? you can read this in your first quotes...

5- despite an almost united nation in Iran, there are also thousands of nationals do not want Iran to win due to political or power struggle. You do not really believe that Iranian commanders open their hands for every spy or observer to know the truth about Iranian forces. the opposite is correct and one of Iranian lethal weapons is its secrecy and being UNKNOWN element... You said what Iran is developing USA made them decades ago... right.. but don,t you see why Iranian experts are working on local unique algorithms and systems to upgrade already existed Russian or American systems? Iran dismantle and design local versions of most electronic, jamming, etc for most of its already possessed weapon systems.. I refer you to the incident that Iran blinded US spy satellites over Iran... it is published well in internet... or the fact that no GPS guided weapon will work over Iranian desired sites of not all Iranian soil... I guess this was the reason behind 2007 hesitation... (maybe! I,m not sure..but seems fit)... I even know there is an especial department for this in Iranian industries and they focused hard to make every KNOWN to become UNKNOWN to outsiders... Iran has no ally or good friend when it comes to its secrets... i had a russian friend once he used to work in Russian military convoy based in Russian embassy... he is now retired but last time we talked, he said, Iranian have a good habit..they don,t even trust us (Russian) when it comes to modifications... The opposite of what you think or other think about Iranian electronic jamming capabilities... it is good that enemy thinks Iran does not possess any upper hand in jamming!!! just for hint, I have heard personally from a navy specialist that when I asked why don,t you use or install that X defense on your ships and he said very firm that it is NO WAY any missile of that X or Y types can pass Iranian electronic warfare... He said Iran learned a valuable lesson when US ships a few decades ago jammed Iranian western made warships.... When you don,t possess a weapon to hit an incoming cruise missile for example you simply focus on jamming it... I have no choice but to disclose another personal experience...when I asked about one known navy gun if it has the same range of the announced one.. the guy answered with laugh...yes, it has exact range!!! that means it has some surprise left for the TIME of Battle... let us agree that it is not wise for a country to just reverse engineer one known weapon with the same character..it will have less value if not any...It is wiser to work 6 year on one project instead of 2 years when you know the product will be a surprise in battlefield... for a hint.. read about new star war style destroyer that has some German name on it...? read about its unique long range gun? some years ago, Iranians knew about it and did one valuable job for their navy ships under construction that will face that especial allien-form american ship... let us agree that Iranian authorities are not that dumb to expose and show all they have got from power... some must be left for the day and it must be surprising...
6- Iran is not a big science and tech monster at the moment although much bigger most of the world nations (Iran has ranked 16th in science and tech research papers last year and still has the highest growth rate in world)_. But believe me brother...each and every Iranian that I know is focused to revive Persian glory one again... they work hard and I here BET with everyone that Iran will be among top 5 in every brain related science and tech in less than 20 years from now.. Sometimes, I think maybe this is the main reason behind all western hostility toward Iran... No nation had experienced sanctions like Iran for excuses that is funny... for human rights and democracy while Iran is Switzerland comparing to Arab countries and US Arab allies... for nuclear excuses while there are at least 4 nuclear armed nations surrounding us... Pak, Isreail, india, china, russia and USA itself that is the only ATOMIC BOMB user!!!! funny right?? Sometimes I think they only afraid of an independent state to become successful too...this is much harsher for them than all other nations have nukes...

7- conclusion: neither of us knows for sure what Iran has or has not..or what USA is capable or not capable of... Iranians are not dumb.. they actually are smart... they know their weaknesses and they work hard to overcome the problems and I guess so far they succeeded as US or any other western country dared to attack her... USA is a super power in many aspects but still they have weaknesses too..as any other country... if this propaganda of USA being so almighty that no army or nation can stand in its way works for most of the world... it does not work for iranians due to many unique aspects of Iran and Iranians... USA makes tens of documentaries of their absolute power in military strength and air it even in Persian speaking TVs day and night..but they do not know that Iranians chose their way decades ago and we are not a nation that obey others just becoz they have better planes or missiles... estimations from last month is not credible enough in case of Iran as Iran is developing very fast and changes day over day... once I was passing my under flag compulsory military service nearly 15 years ago... back then.. every engineer needed to learn some almost fixed amount of expertise in different military systems... nowadays, from what I hear from younger soldiers...for example, one of them that passed a anti-aircraft course, said, they made them pass the new courses every 3 months...this means at least every 3 months..a big part of current available weaponry changes or upgrades...and considering the fact that Iran is under absolute sanctions even from his so called friends (Russia), I can say.. iran actually are upgrading their systems in reality... I used to know many young graduates who invited to work on high tech projects.. what I see is that Iranian universities and governmental and private high tech or R&D firms has converted into a nation of innovation and tech... I see a possible war between Iran and USA..as both sides lose a lot..non of them overcome the other one... I remember a report about a war game simulation by US army and navy ...they made two blue and red teams by warships and all they have in access to confront Iran.. they estimated a quick win with low casualties..but the results was scary... if I recall it right..something like 60 warships drowned and some +20K casualties from American side while most of Iranian cards still not used... If I,m Iranian commander, I won,t underestimate anyone...but at the same time, gather up the best of Iran to find weaknesses and get ready to take advantage of it...

Other than all that I said... I agree totally with all you have said...
btw, you can publish your writing as a book of Iranian forces analysis... no kidding... that was one looooong response..

Most of what you said, I already knew... some of it is not credible as I have verified the opposite...some parts are absolute TRUTH...so, Thanks and I,m done.. I don,t see myself writing such a response again...so please with all respect.. I agree with whatever true you say and let me keep my verified truth to myself...

sometimes I think it is pointless to talk about this stuff as I can not express all I know..and at the same time, I see it necessary to explain some points... so, let,s keep it to the future and every body sees what happens with Iran..either it will be destroyed by western powers or something unexpected happens... who knows? I don,t...

I love pakistan btw.. I think it is misunderstood a lot... they are nice people...pretty smart and kind ones... flags up for Pakistani friends... although, I will take my country's side in a any confrontation... as exactly you do for sure..

Muslims Go... Iran GONE!!!

 

[IRAN 1802]

@scythian500

This thread is about 4 years ago.

 

[scythian500]

@scythian500

This thread is about 4 years ago.

yes, bro...but where it is needed to be explained it must be done.. and google does not ignore old english texts...but most of above is just recent discussion ... but you,re right... 4 years is a lot... Iran has changed a lot since then... in some fields Iran is better 10 times than 4 years ago in terms of tech and science

 

[IRAN 1802]

yes, bro...but where it is needed to be explained it must be done.. and google does not ignore old english texts...but most of above is just recent discussion ... but you,re right... 4 years is a lot... Iran has changed a lot since then... in some fields Iran is better 10 times than 4 years ago in terms of tech and science

Of course yes brother, thank you.