Afghanistan losing interest in trade links with Pakistan

[Abingdonboy]

Hi,

So its not from official sources, just another absurd speculation

I'm not sure if it is "absurd speculation", the speaker has better understanding of the dynamics at work than any of us.

 

[salarsikander]

I'm not sure if it is "absurd speculation", the speaker has better understanding of the dynamics at work than any of us.

Exactly which is why the institute or the speaker wasn't consulted for that matter

 

[Salik]

That's retarded , its like saying Nepal , Bhutan , Bangladesh will hand over their territory to India because millions migrate to India.

Migrants and refugees are two different things, that too refugees for three decades. There has to be a solution. Either give them citizenship and equal rights or get a piece of land from Afghanistan near the border, with UN consultation and settle them there.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Doubt about that .Because gap between India and China are not that big and China still needs two decades to plug their tech gap with West .And India is already world top emerging economy .
Destroyed physically but mentally .Japan is a developed nation but US can decide their policies if they want .
Chinese inrush will destroy your local industries .Not in right direction .If you want a good direction you should have good relation with all other nations .Solely depending one nation means nothing but willfuly surrendering sovreignity .

Wrong .Earlier gen Indians did a lots for a good relation both in trade and people to people contact .Pakistan was economically comparable to India at that time .But now not anymore nor you dont have any influence like Chinese through their trade .And coincidentally but unfortunately new gen Indians dont have that soft heart of earlier gen like
Vajpayee or Singh .

On the contrary, the ground reality is that China has already helped and develop local industries inmensely. This has been greatly appreciated by the Pakistani public.

Don't ever recall Pakistanis ever having friendly relations with indians or Pakistan's economy ever being comparable to india's. Which is very unlikely given that india is 7-8 times bigger than Pakistan in terms of population. If they did than it was a brilliant effort by Pakistan. Since the americans imposed the WOT on Pakistan in 2001, our economy has been hit very hard and taken a severe downturn. But as that winds down there definitely has been an awakening in Pakistan and a new change is happening that has never ever been seen before.

There probably will never ever be trade and normalization of relations betweeen Pakistan and india. That is a reality that most people agree on. Pakistan's future lies with it's domestic reforms, enpowerment of the Pakistani public and our relationship with China and Turkey. india's future lies in completely different place to us.

 

[pakistani342]

I think there are a few flaws in your statements/comments:

Thanks to Afghanistan and Pakistan borders, majority of drug dealers choose to come to Iran and go to Europe and rest of ME, and because of that we seize the largest amount of drugs in the world annually.

1. majority of drug dealers choose to come to Iran and go to Europe and rest of ME
--> Do you have references to back that up -- I've never heard Iran is a bigger conduit over Pakistan
--> Why would it be? -- the level of corruption in Pakistan exceeds Iran
--> The level of internal security in Pakistan is less compared to Iran
--> would be interested if you have references -- you may be right on this but I am skeptical

2. because of that we seize the largest amount of drugs in the world annually.
--> Again this is a false inference, your statement depends on the proposition that:
--> more drugs caught ==> more drugs must have been shipped [sorry but wrong]
--> clearly this proposition cannot be true for example a larger quantity shipped with poor law enforcement
--> would lead to smaller quantities seized

So you are deeply mistaken if you think you are getting more drugs compared to us. Flow of drugs is already towards Iran. It can't get worse.

3. Flow of drugs is already towards Iran. It can't get worse.
--> again this is a repeat of you you have said so again I challenge it

And btw, improving economic ties between Iran and Afghanistan doesn't mean dealers will stop drug smuggling into Pakistan, it's the opposite. The more prosperous the area gets, the less space for criminals exists.

4. Again this is simply not true in the general sense -- I mean we are not talking about Baltimore here but Afghanistan
--> As counter example: under the Taliban the annual poppy cultivation was 9,000 hectares
--> After economic conditions improved post 9/11 -- the poppy cultivation has soared up to ~100,000 hectares

Again facts, references and sound inference please -- sound bytes just make you feel good ;-)

.

Why do you have to always spin stuff into a zero sum game, Pakistan is earning a couple billions in relation to the Afghan commerce, those may sound small to you but still its commerce.

Part A

1. Why do you have to always spin stuff into a zero sum game,
. mmm so I don't know how you arrive at this -- zero sum mean for me to win you loose
. I disagree with this completely
. For example it escapes me why Afghanistan/Pakistan are two different countries
. It would seem to me Afghans would be clamoring for a confederation with Pakistan
kinda like Turkey wants to be part of Europe -- that's not a Zero Sum Game is it.
. Now I do advocate considering the use of all levers to get Afghans to comply
. Again operative word being considering and not necessarily using

2. Pakistan is earning a couple billions in relation to the Afghan commerce, those may sound small to you but still its commerce.
. This may be true but Pakistan is losing orders of magnitudes more than that per year
. It's pretty simple arithmetic

3. I am referring to the fact that our region should utilize all the routes for commerce, not Either Or situation.
. I totally agree
. So for example China should become part of SAARC
. Since Pakistan is so narrow minded Afghanistan should have granted
transit to Pakistan 50 years to ago
. Funny how your laws of physics only apply to Pakistan
. I think Pakistan should apply all instruments at it;s disposal to get trade routes to CARs
. Now if they do not pass through Afghanistan ... so be it.

4. I hope that Afghans return back to Afghanistan, sooner rather than later to rebuilt their country.
. As many wise scholars of policy have said
. Hope is not a policy

PS : You also need to take chill pill, stop responding emotional, look at the bigger picture. Seems you are a person with higher IQ but very low EQ.

Part B

1. So interestingly I would agree that I probably have lower a EQ than I should
2. On the Chill pill -- I assure you I don't remember the last time Afghanistan or an Afghan made my blood boil -- perhaps not in the past five years -- I actually sympathize with the condition of Afghans -- I just live in Realpolitik
3. "Stop responding emotional," -- again I do not know where you get this from -- as you yourself have pointed out -- I'm rather low on emotion.
4. more on "stop responding emotional," -- you do realize I'm probably one of the older member here -- I could be 20 years your senior easily -- unless I mistake your age
5. look at the bigger picture -- what makes you think I do not do that ??

How about this: evaluate yourself on the advise you have given me. Again brains my dear, brains ... not soundbites

 

[Winchester]

There is no point in making the same points over and over again. I, for one, am quite content to let things be. What better way to prove claims as lies than reality itself?

CPEC claims are in the same vein as JF-17 exports success, Imran Khan's tabeeeli, Arjumand Hussain's ending of VIP culture, the end of loadshedding, the underground coal gasification success, and now we wait to see the cheap power from Thar coal, and Gawadar replacing Dubai and becoming the center of world trade.

After all, the nation that is the only Muslim nuclear power in the world can do everything it wants to do.

Clearly.

Since Trump is coming for you.....maybe you should spend more time in the Yahoo comment section convincing your fellow Americans about how you and everyone in your family is not a terrorist.

They will accuse you of practicing TAQIYA but keep at it as you do here, as that I believe needs your more immediate attention.

 

[SrNair]

On the contrary, the ground reality is that China has already helped and develop local industries inmensely. This has been greatly appreciated by the Pakistani public.

Don't ever recall Pakistanis ever having friendly relations with indians or Pakistan's economy ever being comparable to india's. Which is very unlikely given that india is 7-8 times bigger than Pakistan in terms of population. If they did than it was a brilliant effort by Pakistan. Since the americans imposed the WOT on Pakistan in 2001, our economy has been hit very hard and taken a severe downturn. But as that winds down there definitely has been an awakening in Pakistan and a new change is hapoening that has never ever been seen before.

There probably will never ever be trade and normalization of relations betweeen Pakistan and india. That is a reality that most people agree on. Pakistan's future lies with it's domestic reforms, enpowerment of the Pakistani public and our relationship with China and Turkey. india's future lies in completely different place to us.

Lets see.We can see the outcome in near future
Wrong .check statistics of 60's and 70s .Tide changed only after that .

Then it would be only good for us .We dont have to face economic blackmailing and so we wouldnt pursue that in future also.

 

[kabooter_maila]

The 80% that comes legally or the illegal/smuggling thing? Or do they plan to stop using Pak currency too?

Pakistan has nothing to lose. And we wish all the best to our Afghan brothers for their trade through Chabahar. For one, we have a scourge of smuggling just because of Afghan transit trade. We'll get rid of that. Second, if Indians didn't want to use Karachi port for dumping their low quality crap into Afghanistan, one wonders how Chabahar would make junk quality Indian stuff competitive in Afghan market. Anyhow, it's their choice and maybe it's good for them.
Now Indians might be feeling that since Pakistan did not allow a land route for Indian truck traveling to Afghanistan, that country wouldn't allow CARs/Russian stuff passing through its borders. Well, getting CARs/Russian stuff to Gwadar is not Pakistan's headache. The CARs and Russia would bring Afghanistan to the sanity if they want an access to warm waters through the modern and vast infrastructure offered to them by the CPEC project.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Lets see.We can see the outcome in near future
Wrong .check statistics of 60's and 70s .Tide changed only after that .

Then it would be only good for us .We dont have to face economic blackmailing and so we wouldnt pursue that in future also.

CPEC will mainly be good for China, a few central Asian countries and potentially Turkey via Iran. india doesn't need it. Your economy is very strong and you have Chabahar.

 

[oFFbEAT]

Lol

I am an Indian and entire Indians will agree with me.We have other far more important subjects in our nation that needs to be addressed .Neither GoI nor Indians hate Pakistan ,simply we dont have time for that .
If we have that much hates your patients wouldnt get good treatments in our hospitals ,your actors or actresses couldnt get opportunities in our film industry .
Pakistan is another neighbour that have some little attention seeking problem ,thats all.

Funny .what is this ?
Those western areas were always a trouble place for our Indian kings .
Those areas are not our lands we new generation Indians think differently .We only cares about our Republic of India ,totally based on our constitution .
Neither we want others lands nor we give our lands to some others .Like you said we are different ,totally different than a Pakistani.

What??
If someone comes and forcefully evicts you from your house then the house becomes theirs?? What a crooked sense of logic you have!!
The North-Western portion of the Indian subcontinent was always troubled because that was the entry point of all invaders, that doesn't mean that portion was never ours....... and don't forget how Pakistan was created.
Yes, we're not keen on attacking Pakistan and taking back our land BUT that doesn't mean we should forget History, 'cause if we do, we're doomed to repeat it....
If you forget how our own land was snatched from us, you'll repeat the same mistake again, you'll say Kashmir is a troubled place, Indian govt. is having trouble ruling it, so it is not part of India....
Arunachal Pradesh is also disputed, so India must give it up......
Therefore, we should move forward, but never forget/ignore our past....our past teaches us how to move forward correctly.

 

[BattleWolf]

There are more than 20 million Bangladeshi refugees in India , so does that gives us the right to annex Bangladesh? Because your logic is implying it

 

[SrNair]

What??
If someone comes and forcefully evicts you from your house then the house becomes theirs?? What a crooked sense of logic you have!!
The North-Western portion of the Indian subcontinent was always troubled because that was the entry point of all invaders, that doesn't mean that portion was never ours....... and don't forget how Pakistan was created.
Yes, we're not keen on attacking Pakistan and taking back our land BUT that doesn't mean we should forget History, 'cause if we do, we're doomed to repeat it....
If you forget how our own land was snatched from us, you'll repeat the same mistake again, you'll say Kashmir is a troubled place, Indian govt. is having trouble ruling it, so it is not part of India....
Arunachal Pradesh is also disputed, so India must give it up......
Therefore, we should move forward, but never forget/ignore our past....our past teaches us how to move forward correctly.

As an Indian ,I only cares about Republic of India and Constitution.

 

[oFFbEAT]

As an Indian ,I only cares about Republic of India and Constitution.

Then you should speak only for yourself buddy, not for all Indians.....'cause I, as a 'new generation' Indian, not only care about the modern day republic and its constitution but also its past.

 

[SrNair]

Then you should speak only for yourself buddy, not for all Indians.....'cause I, as a 'new generation' Indian, not only care about the modern day republic and its constitution but also its past.

You can only consider but cant do anything about it .
First you should do something for strengthening the unity of Republic of India .Then you can talk about foreign lands .

 

[oFFbEAT]

You can only consider but cant do anything about it .
First you should do something for strengthening the unity of Republic of India .Then you can talk about foreign lands .

lol....you didn't understand my post, read again carefully, specially the bold part.
I did not advocate invading 'foreign' land, I only said that you shouldn't forget history, 'cause those who ignore and forget their own past are bound to repeat the same mistake that they have committed in the past.