Afghanistan losing interest in trade links with Pakistan

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Well the challenge that presents Pakistan today is far greater than developing "the bomb".

No. Becoming the world's 1st ever Muslim nuclear weapons state when all the world's most powerful countries tried to prevent it, when the whole world doubted us is the biggest challenge Pakistan ever faced. Many times more challenging than CPEC. The nukes guaranteed our survival. Saved Pakistan from mortal danger. CPEC is important but not as precious as the nukes. No Muslim nation has ever achieved the nuke capability however hard they tried yet many of them have booming economies. If they can then Pakistanis most certainly can too.

 

[Abingdonboy]

No. Becoming the world's 1st ever Muslim nuclear weapons state when all the world's most powerful countries tried to prevent it, when the whole world doubted us is the biggest challenge Pakistan ever faced. Many times more challenging than CPEC. The nukes guaranteed our survival. Saved Pakistan from mortal danger. CPEC is important but not as precious as the nukes. No Muslim nation has ever achieved the nuke capability however hard they tried yet many of them have booming economies. If they can then Pakistanis most certainly can too.

One could call it (nuclear weapons) a manifestation of misplaced priorties but that is maybe not for me to say. All I can say is Pakistan wa succesful where other Muslim nations (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia(?)) failed but then the Indonesians and Malaysians who never had any interest in nuclear weapons have raced ahead in almost every conceviable metric.

 

[Khan_21]

One could call it (nuclear weapons) a manifestation of misplaced priorties but that is maybe not for me to say. All I can say is Pakistan wa succesful where other Muslim nations (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia(?)) failed but then the Indonesians and Malaysians who never had any interest in nuclear weapons have raced ahead in almost every conceviable metric.

Pakistan is arguably the most powerful Muslim country on the face of earth . The fact that we have One of the strongest armies , potent airforce , one of the most powerful intelligence agencies in the world despite all odds is why Pakistan holds a unique place in the world .Malaysia and Indonesia are not as relevant or Important to the west as Pakistan Is . Lets come to economy .

1. Lowest poverty in South Asia after Srilanka (only 12 % of Pakistanis spend on $ 2 a day compared to 32 % in India)
2. Less income inquality compared to Both India and Bangladesh
3. Median household income is Higher than Both India and Bangladesh

Pakistan has achieved alot of other things which malaysian's and indonesian's couldn't . Pakistan dominated the world of sports ( Cricket , Hockey , Squash) . Pakistan greatest export has to be its music . the plethora of musical legends it has produced is unrivalled.

Every Country has its own strengths and weakness. Pakistan's strength is its regional influence , Its global relevance and the power it holds which other muslim nation does that not . Economically an average Pakistani is still financially much well off , much better fed than its South asian counterparts so wont complain on that.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Its a pretty dicey situation. Pakistan needs something to believe in. China needs to keep the long term strategy alive and hedge on all the options (there are chances the CPEC will be financially viable... who knows for sure). China has gambled a lot more (100's of billions of dollars) on parts of its own internal economy...so 46 billion (mostly loan) with a nonzero annuity return rate and more importantly the positive propaganda (its how the Chinese really succeed in large parts of the developing world) is really a piece of cake for them since externalisation of their buffer margins actually is more profitable for them (theoretically speaking) given the overinvestment climate in China right now.

I don't envy the pakistani taxpayer at all, given that he/she is a rare breed to begin with.



Im sure China will be open to renegotiating the interest rates...most probably by extending the timeframe and mitigating the yearly rates. A lot depends on what China's own financial situation is at that point. I don't think its easy to project that at this point in time.

JICA can do what it does because of a few fundamental reasons which I will cover in that thread (of the analysis someone did) I'll tag you there.

But what matters more than paying back the loan is the actual transfer efficiency to the Pakistani economy (since that in itself will be the main conduit to paying back the loan...i.e how much of the loan "catches" efficiently". Building a capacity is one thing, utilising and exploiting it efficiently is another thing.

I mean one can effectively put a bench/squat machine in the basement and load it with massive weights. Being able to bench and squat those weights and grow long term muscle is another thing all together. Was that investment worth it, or was your body better served at this point in time by sticking to lighter dumbells and doing more cardio/diet planning first. Thats the basic crux of the issue in my opinion.



What exactly has Pakistan guaranteed? If its set in stone and the Chinese mean to enforce it long term, that definitely does spell doom like you say.

If its more pliable (or ends up having to be for both sides sake), then there may be more respite for its long term viability (and it will have to be really long term).

As it stands and assuming 100% enforcement of such terms, it does not bode well for Pakistan.



Well such projects should ramp up organically (if FDI). I have not seen that happen (its pretty flat). But people have been posting pictures of the work going on, so that means it must be through a loan instrument of some kind thus far (and thats what will probably continue). I was talking about it with @Sky lord on a thread. FDI is much more preferable because the source internalises the risk (and is thus incentivised to make the long term returns/financials work).

Pakistanis need something to believe in????????..........Last time indians called us dreaming fantasists for Pakistanis believing that we could become a nuclear weapons state we actually did become one. Perhaps us Pakistanis need to start believing and dreaming more as we have a habit of making them come true.

Feasibility study after feasibility study. Over analysis after over analysis. Pre May 1998 Indians like you were doing EXACTLY the same thing as to why Pakistan could never ever become a nuclear weapons state with or without Chinese assistance or help. That it was impossible for us to do so. Yet us Pakistanis managed to do this "impossibility". We will do the same with CPEC. It may be a bumpy and turbulent ride but we'll get to where we want to be economically. At the end of the day it doesn't matter what indians or anyone else for that matter says, writes or does. The only thing that matters is the ground reality of CPEC. And only the Chinese and Pakistanis can judge that and be responsible for it's success.

 

[Nilgiri]

Lowest poverty in South Asia after Srilanka (only 12 % of Pakistanis spend on $ 2 a day compared to 32 % in India)

This number has been revised by the World Bank for India. The absolute poverty rate for India in 2012 is 12.4% (at 1.90 PPP dollars)....so its probably even lower now (below 10%).

2. Less income inquality compared to Both India and Bangladesh
3. Median household income is Higher than Both India and Bangladesh

No country has grown by refusing to create more inequality. Makers get first dibs for a good long time till the takers catch up. Thats why China's inequality zoomed drastically after the late 70s and 80s...and is only now slowly consdolidating.

Economically an average Pakistani is still financially much well off , much better fed than its South asian counterparts so wont complain on that.

Your human development index is lower than both India and Bangladesh.

You are also below us on the hunger index. I suggest you check/update your data sources.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

One could call it (nuclear weapons) a manifestation of misplaced priorties but that is maybe not for me to say. All I can say is Pakistan wa succesful where other Muslim nations (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia(?)) failed but then the Indonesians and Malaysians who never had any interest in nuclear weapons have raced ahead in almost every conceviable metric.

Indonesia and Malaysia both don't have any enemy next door to them that is 7-8 times their size that has the full backing of the entire west and Russia and has access to their weapons. Nor has Malaysia or Indonesia been listed for termination by the world's strongest military in the "plans for a new American century". So Pakistan having a strong military and nuclear weapons is at the top of our priority. We need both of these to ensure the survival of our nation and race. achieving this is far more difficult than achieving economic excellence and stability. But the economy is very important. For too long we have neglected it and our citizens. We need to address this problem right now. CPEC will give us the catalyst and impetus to do this.

 

[Khan_21]

This number has been revised by the World Bank for India. The absolute poverty rate for India in 2012 is 12.4% (at 1.90 PPP dollars)....so its probably even lower now (below 10%).



No country has grown by refusing to create more inequality. Makers get first dibs for a good long time till the takers catch up. Thats why China's inequality zoomed drastically after the late 70s and 80s...and is only now slowly consdolidating.



Your human development index is lower than both India and Bangladesh.

You are also below us on the hunger index. I suggest you check/update your data sources.

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/PAK

Pakistan $ 1.90 8.3 % of Population (2012)

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/IND

India 21 % of Population. (2012)

There goes your false statistics

 

[Indos]

Indonesia and Malaysia both don't have any enemy next door to them that is 7-8 times their size that has the full backing of the entire west and Russia and has access to their weapons. Nor has Malaysia or Indonesia been listed for termination by the world's strongest military in the "plans for a new American century". So Pakistan having a strong military and nuclear weapons is at the top of our priority. We need both of these to ensure the survival of our nation and race. achieving this is far more difficult than achieving economic excellence and stability. But the economy is very important. For too long we have neglected it and our citizens. We need to address this problem right now. CPEC will give us the catalyst and impetus to do this.

Well my friend, Indonesia itself has had its first nuclear reactor (research reactor) since 1960's during Soekarno period. During that time we also have launched indigenous rocket which is the second country in Asia after Japan who can do it. Under Soeharto (1966-1998) we focused on economy and dont put much money on nuclear and rocket program. Regardless of that our understanding about nuclear is still quite good, but we focus more for peaceful purposes.

Nuclear Power in Indonesia
(Updated 29 December 2015)

Indonesia has a greater depth of experience and infrastructure in nuclear technology than any other southeast Asian country except Australia.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/indonesia.aspx

Kartika I
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Kartika I is an Indonesian sounding rocket built by LAPAN, AURI, Bandung Institute of Technology, and Pindad under PRIMA (Sounding and Military Rocket Development Project/Indonesian: Proyek Pengembangan Roket Ilmiah dan Militer Awal) project. This rocket was launched on August 14, 1964 in LAPAN Rocket Launching Station Pameungpeuk, West Java, becoming the first sounding rocket ever launched in Indonesia, and the second in Asia after Japan through Kappa Rocket.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kartika_I

 

[Nilgiri]

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/PAK

Pakistan $ 1.90 8.3 % of Population (2012)

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/IND

India 21 % of Population. (2012)

There goes your false statistics

a) You quoted 32% for India in your first post. So you have already admitted that number is wrong.

b) Coming to the 21% (which is already significantly lower than 32%), You have obviously not read the most up to date report from the WB:

http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/pubdoc...44058224597/Global-Monitoring-Report-2015.pdf

http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/pubdoc...09701443800596288/PRN03-Oct2015-TwinGoals.pdf

Therefore 12.4% for 2011/12. The new system (MMRP versus URP) will be brought in the next data series. It will be interesting to see what India's poverty rate is now currently, and not 4 years ago.

c) http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI

India HDI is higher than Pakistan significantly. India life expectancy is 68. Pakistan is 66. Years of schooling are better in India (the average Indian kid today can expect to stay in school 4 years longer than the average Pakistani kid). GDP per capita, India much higher. India is classified as a Medium development country. Pakistan is classified as low development.

d) Education. Pakistan is really lagging. According to UNESCO:

https://defence.pk/threads/pakistan...angladesh-diplomat.410043/page-6#post-7921579

And literacy rate seems to be dropping which is scary:

http://tribune.com.pk/story/886027/2013-14-report-literacy-rate-slips-nationwide-by-2/

e) Global hunger index:

http://ghi.ifpri.org/

India has less overall hunger than Pakistan (going against your assertion that Pakistanis are "better fed").

Also worth looking at:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_food_energy_intake#cite_note-4

Average calorie intake according to FAO:

India: 2360
Pakistan: 2280

 

[VCheng]

Don't make a fool of yourself brother, saying things like "Pakistan has an economic gem and catalyst called CPEC that no other nation on earth has and that could potentially propel the whole of Pakistan to world class economic standards of GCC nations and Singapore " is just setting yourself up for epic failure. You think transforming a nation as vast and complicated as Pakistan into Singapore for as little as $46BN (a relatively minimal amount compared to most mega infrastructure projects) is doable? There are no "silver bullets"- if there were everyone would be Singapore by now. Not even a $460bn investment would make that kind of difference.

@Syed.Ali.Haider @Nilgiri @MilSpec

@Syed.Ali.Haider is one of the few Pakistanis that seems to genuinely understand the problem with gaining investment via the loan route (instead of FDI which remains depressed in Pakistan). The interest costs themselves are going to be pretty phenomenal.

Its now becoming quite clear to me from the answer dodging in other threads (w.r.t FDI vs loan route for CPEC) the purpose of having this project focused on MOU style agreements. China is basically checking the return efficiency of greenfield projects in Pakistan. It does not want to create another white elephant for itself (it has plenty within its own economy), nor does it want a massive financial crisis for its strategic ally Pakistan.

Thats why CPEC will not be the golden egg goose.

Comparing with the Asian tigers like Singapore is just ridiculous. That requires a level of human capital quality and consistency coupled with efficienct long term administration that Pakistan has never had and wont have for a very very long time (definitely well past the CPEC timeframe).

You just need to go the UNESCO database and check how many pakistani primary school kids make it to the last grade, and the same figures for high school too. I thought India was pretty bad, but Pakistan is absolutely shocking.

Thats the sort of thing that will need to be fixed....otherwise overinvestment will just create a diabetic chain (the economy cannot tolerate the excess "sugar" since it has not fleshed out its human capital issues (body mass, insulin balance)). In the end thats a bubble that will need to be suppressed for a long time (creating massive economic rents and trade offs due to the opportunity cost of improving say education with the same amount of money)...or it will explode and that will be really bad too.

There is no point in making the same points over and over again. I, for one, am quite content to let things be. What better way to prove claims as lies than reality itself?

CPEC claims are in the same vein as JF-17 exports success, Imran Khan's tabeeeli, Arjumand Hussain's ending of VIP culture, the end of loadshedding, the underground coal gasification success, and now we wait to see the cheap power from Thar coal, and Gawadar replacing Dubai and becoming the center of world trade.

After all, the nation that is the only Muslim nuclear power in the world can do everything it wants to do.

Clearly.

 

[salarsikander]

Right. CPEC was already very ambitious but with the extra burden of being funded by ENOURMOUSLY high interest rates (7-30%) it seems like CPEC is doomed to fail or at the very least become a considerable source of long term pain for the next generation of Pakistani taxpayers.

Hi,

Could you please post the source of that figure ?

 

[wiseone2]

Hi,

Could you please post the source of that figure ?

i do not think any of the CPEC agreements have been made public

 

[Donald Trump]

And for that to happen they wud be waiting for how many years for Chahbahar to come online? Guess what wud they do till then? What if there are another set of sanctions on Iran?

What were they doing for the past 2000 years? We can wait a little more!

 

[Manidabest]

There is more chance of everlasting peace with India then with Afghans, most Afghan nationalist call Pakistanis as Hindu converts, daal khors, slaves. They have the historical butthurt, after ruling most of modern day Pakistan, they can't believe that those same daal khors and slaves today have one of the largest army in the world/nuclear weapons and the ''superior'' Afghans are still using donkeys as mode of transport.

well i havnt come across anyone who said like this to Pakistanis.... infact we are the ones who say that afghans brought drugs, guns and prostitution in our country which i believe is also true ...

I just wish Pakistanis wake up to reality and allow Afghans/Indian trade



30 years ago you were a friend of America. You do not know who will be your friends 30 years from now.

You are friends with China due to shared dislike of India. You have nothing in common with the Chinese - language, religion, race, outlook and diet



You had a lot of sympathy in the 1980s to wage a war for them against the Soviets. Is this a case of not getting paid ??

well we have many commonalities with chinese and the top of it is we both are united against india

 

[Donald Trump]

Hi,

Could you please post the source of that figure ?

It's actually 1.6% interest as per wikki but payback schedule is 20 years. Now how much has Pakistan borrowed from China? Out of the $46 billion, $11 billion has been loaned by China to Pakistan for the proposed infrastructure projects along the CPEC that will be dispersed to Pakistan by the Exim Bank of China, China Development Bank, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

Now that means approx $600 million per year or > Rs 6000 crores PKR per year. That's a lot of dosh to pay back to China every year!

And think about the 11 coal fired plants they're transferring to Pakistan as part of the CPEC. The irony is that the Chinese are discarding these polluting power plants for renewable energy like nuclear and solar power plants but shoving the antiquated polluting coal fired plants down the throats of the Pakistanis!

And China not only wants better than market returns for the money being invested in the proposed China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), but also wants Islamabad to select only Chinese firms for all CPEC-related contracts.

For instance, business rivals of China are being quoted, as saying that Beijing is putting pressure on Pakistan to make sure that work related to the Gwadar Port Development Project is given only to a Chinese company selected by Beijing. They've managed now to take it over on a 40 year lease. Do Pakistanis need permits to enter the port as it is controlled by the Chinese? I haven't the faintest clue but it would be ironical that Pakistanis would need permission to enter their own port!!

Officials in Pakistan have reportedly railed against such interference, but the missive from China appears to be clear, no Chinese company means no project, and therefore, no money. So what happens to jobs for Pakistanis with some commentators saying that thousands of unemployed Pakistanis would be given jobs? 10,000 Pak troops have already been deployed for the protection of this Chinese workforce!

I wonder whatever happened to their higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans friendship? Where it comes to business, no one can beat the Chinese at their game. In a nutshell, the Pakistanis are being taken for a jolly good ride!