Abbotabad Report | Discussions, analysis & recommendations.

[sancho]

The influence of the Military/ISI will reduce the day the Federal Government starts providing Governance to the masses. The absence of Governance by Political and Civilian Institutions is the core reason why the Military continues to enjoy powerful influence in the State.

Wasn't that one thing that the new government wanted to change? At least that's what I heared shortly before and after the elections.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

When Pakistan is done and over with.

Page 197 probably has content related to Gen Musharraf's approval within 24 hours after 9/11 of the following US demands:

"Stop al-Qaida operatives at your border, intercept arms shipments through Pakistan and end all logistical support for bin Ladin;"

"Provide the U.S. with blanket overflight and landing rights to conduct all necessary military and intelligence operations;"

"Provide as needed territorial access to U.S. and allied military intelligence, and other personnel to conduct all necessary operations against the perpetrators of terrorism or those that harbor them, including use of Pakistan's naval ports, airbases and strategic locations on borders;"

"Provide the U.S. immediately with intelligence, [EXCISED] information, to help prevent and respond to terrorist acts perpetuated against the U.S., its friends and allies;"

"Continue to publicly condemn the terrorist acts of September11 and any other terrorist acts against the U.S. or its friends and allies [EXCISED]"

"Cut off all shipments of fuel to the Taliban and any other items and recruits, including volunteers en route to Afghanistan that can be used in a military offensive capacity or to abet the terrorist threat;"

"Should the evidence strongly implicate Usama bin Ladin and the al-Qaida network in Afghanistan and should Afghanistan and the Taliban continue to harbor him and this network, Pakistan will break diplomatic relations with the Taliban government, end support for the Taliban and assist us in the formentioned ways to destroy Usama bin Ladin."


=================================== @Aeronaut @nuclearpak @Oscar or any mod, please approve this post.

 

[Silverblaze]

It's great to see how the political setup is being completely absolved here!

The report mentions the ISI statement, which says that even though internal intelligence isn't the job of ISI, it was forced to do so due to the inefficiency of the IB. There are plenty more instances like this in the report which show a complete breakdown of intelligence sharing.

In short, our intelligence agencies have been working in a free for all. No guidelines, no rules, no coordination in a formal manner, it was on a case by case basis. This where the need of a National Counter terrorism authority was felt. A platform which puts all the agencies on one table. Set rules and procedures.

What this report and the media should be doing is chalking out future strategy and the next steps, rather than repeating the same old lines 'ISI ki nakami and bla bla bla'. There is no point in repeatedly ridiculing the state apparatus. You did it a few times, that's enough. Now look for the future course of action. The new procedures, SOP's and other stuff.

Bold parts.

who de-fanged the IB? Mushy did it and appointed Ijaz Shah ( his minion) as its chief and it became a mockery.

The thing is that the ISI operates in its own circle and ignores the civilian leadership because of trust deficit.

ISI directly deals with the US and vice versa and the civilian leadership is just there for photo ops and at the end a nice essay from the ISI to the PM is given as a report.

 

[A.Rafay]

Why didn't ISI or any other security or intelligence agency caught or got suspicious of Shakeel Afridi and his fake polio workers involving fake polio vaccination service? He was the main guy who provided important information to US! How did he do that without getting caught?

 

[notorious_eagle]

Human history and behavior tell us that power is intoxicating and addictive. A reasonable deduction from your statements is that the military could have a vested interest in continuing failures of civil apparati to ensure its hold on power. Why wouldn't they? Or are we to assume that our military is totally selfless?

The reality is that we have a classic Catch-22 situation. The military will not give up power because the civil authorities fail. The civil authorities will continue to fail because they have no real authority or even the mechanisms to develop basic competencies. Hence the present situation.
@Aeronaut please approve this post. I have downloaded the entire PDF file and will be able to comment after reading it all, which would take a few days.

Pray tell me, is the Army stopping the civilian or the politicians from delivering Governance? Is the Army acting as a road barrier for the Government to improve taxation, eliminating corruption, ending nepotism, eliminate red tapism and kick start the economy? Your post is very philosophical but unfortunately it is not backed up by any realism.

Although it is not the domain of the COAS, he has hinted several times in his speeches that the political leadership needs to get its act together and kick start the economy. The Army redirected the CSF funds it was entitled to towards the civilian administration so it could help in relieving the severe economic plight, but we all know where those CSF funds ended up don't we. If the civilian institutions can achieve even 50% of the level of efficiency that the Armed Forces demonstrate with their budget, believe me Pakistan will not be a Failing State. The Civilian Institutions have all the authority that they need, the only thing missing is the intent to fix them. So please, stop thinking philosophically and implement some realism in your line of thinking.

Wasn't that one thing that the new government wanted to change? At least that's what I heared shortly before and after the elections.

They were election slogans, lets see if they can implement real change or not. The last 5 years perfectly demonstrated the incompetence of the civilian government.

 

[Donatello]

@balixd @nuclearpak In between pages 170-200, there is a statement from ISI local detachment commander-Abbotabad. He clearly said we do all our ops in abbotabad without involving LEA and local police and local Police or LEA didn't knew when ISI apprehended Omar Parekh who was there to meet OBL yet ISI was failed to get this piece of info from him

This is the state of our Intel agencies, where our they work, they like to work independently, so how can we expect better results if there is no cooperation. You both are right that co-ordination is on case to case and there is serious lack of co-ordination despite Interior ministry crises cell, National Counter Terrorism Authority which were created to make all intel LEA work better yet they failed in their objective to bring all of them on one table

If i was to act on an intelligence task, i wouldn't trust the local police as well.

 

[Mahabali]

I see a silver lining ni the fact that a man of Pasha's stature acknowledges that its a failing state......Well that is good thing as they realise there is a problem.It would be good if they acknowledge their contribution to the same.

Politicians have to stand up and set examples and own responsibility or will never have any moral authority.

 

[Developereo]

Did you read Para 757 of the report Sir? What do you think it gives as a possible reply to your questions?

I already rejected the claim that the civilians haven't been given enough time to implement reforms, so there's no point repeating myself. Zardari's five year tenure speaks for itself.

As for the second claim, that democracy without accountability is a sham, this is exactly what so many of us on this forum, including you, have been saying. The question really becomes: why aren't the Pakistani masses clamoring for accountability?

The answer is not pretty. Could it be that we, as a society, like the way things are?

No taxes, corruption, no police.

There is a certain way of doing business which prefers this scenario, and perhaps the Pakistani public is so used to this way that they are afraid to try anything new. After all, change is a two-way street and, as bad as things are, people are afraid to rock the boat, especially knowing the cast of characters running the show.

 

[muse]

The Usual suspects are busy trying to defend the army, the civilians did not deliver you see -- but why would the civilians deliver when the Army refuses to deliver dead Taliban, Dead Sectarian terrorists, and When the Army refuses to drop it's Islamist and Jihad Ethic?

After all, look at the substance of the Army's play, we'll sacrifice as many Pakistanis as it takes but we will not drop Islamism, which our vehicle to control not just the state but society, given that we have an emotional population that has a serious confidence problem about whether they are Pakistani or Islamists first.

Now if 50,000 Pakistani army soldiers were killed it might make an impression of the institution.
So the more Muslm than Mohammad crowd point to Swat about how Civilians did not deliver, they argue that the army did dleiver, but Talib still threaten Swat, the Army allowed their leader to escape, and the army hopes to reform and reintegrate these lunes (watch out India, or Syria or whereever else al Brince may decide)


Please do look at the National security proposals in the report, it tells you a lot.

 

[Amaa'n]

I have been reading the report last night and read it till Page 132. So whatever i say will be based on what i have read so far. I will try to finish it by tonight.

What i feel is that the report is less focused on OBL case and more focused on insight into our System. Many of us are already aware of these flaws and loopholes in the system, what new in this report is that , those flaws and loopholes have been highlighted at the Highest level in the government. Even though commission was well aware of the fact that recommendations of the commissions in the past have been completely ignored , and yet they went to the limit of completing and compiling the report.
Corruptions at Nadra- which many have us have witnessed ourselves in the past few years, even though the CNICs have been computerized and so does the passports , yet people have been able to get these with fake details.
Corruption at FIA, which allows anyone to pass through airports gate without getting entry or exit stamps by merely paying a guard 2000rs, one latest example is of Shahrukh jataio.

it highlights that how someone for the right amount of the money can be bought, be it a DHO, a doctor(afridi) or a Lt. Gen (retd Saeed Iqbal).

We have been saying that there is no co-ordination between LEA and Intel Agencies, but we are overlooking the fact is there is no co-ordination between Revenue and Cantt board either, and neither is between FBR.

Another point to note is that in one corner of the country CID is making arrests and taking down know militants and terrorists (Karachi) however the other corner of the country has to say different story (CID- Peshawar which was made ineffective after it was split into DCT & Elite Force).
Both are the same deparments of Police, but there is a huge difference in performance, one thing I have failed to understand is if the CID Sindh & CID KPK have any co-ordination between them.
@Argus Panoptes you have been arguing to the fact that civil institutions were newer allowed to flourish than let me point you towards the statements given by Home Secretary, IG Police, Chief Sec and the CM himself.
According to CM it was advised to him by IG, DIG, HS, CS that the matter should be left with Federal Govt and it is not in their capacity to handle it.
This raises a question that they were pointing to the fact that they lacked the resources to carry out the investigation or did they lack the commitment and willingness to lead. What i feel from CM's reply is that he was advised to not dig into it. As they say in urdu "sir se utarne wali baat". Let me point you to para 198, 199, 200 ( CM KPK statement)
One can see the competence and commitment of the Civil leadership by seeing the fact that commission has to face so many problems in its own creation.
@Aeronaut @ nuclearpak @Oscar or any mod please approve the post.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

If I may be permitted: may I seek to respond.

..........

If we do not allow that process (which can be painful and time-consuming if I may add) to take place; then inevitably: the "Bonsai State" (or Stunted State) will be the result.

Yes, we have achieved that result already, have we not?

Pray tell me, is the Army stopping the civilian or the politicians from delivering Governance? Is the Army acting as a road barrier for the Government to improve taxation, eliminating corruption, ending nepotism, eliminate red tapism and kick start the economy? Your post is very philosophical but unfortunately it is not backed up by any realism.

...............

The reality of the situation is clearly described by the report: " ... why civilian governance has deteriorated rather than improved over recent decades is that it has been forcibly displaced, constrained and rendered irrelevant."

The Army has played its role in the development of the present mess which has been brewing for decades, not just the last few years. It is clearly not innocent. But, the civilian leaders are to blame as well. After all, this is a collective failure where everybody played a nefarious role.

Is the Army a road barrier now? Possibly not. But the positive results of this claimed and relatively recent change will become evident only after this purported change of heart on part of the military takes hold for the next few decades to allow this Aegean stable to be flushed clean of the burden of our history. If we have that much time, that is.

The report goes on to clearly state this: "Whatever short-term and temporary advantages of more disciplined non-civilian rule, it inevitably leads to a fatal weakening of the foundations of good governance and the rule of law."

So now that we have finally killed off good governance and rotted out our foundations completely with our repeated experiments with "more disciplined non-civilian rule" for "short-term and temporary advantages", where do we go from here, Sir? The only way left is down.

I already rejected the claim that the civilians haven't been given enough time to implement reforms, so there's no point repeating myself. Zardari's five year tenure speaks for itself.

As for the second claim, that democracy without accountability is a sham, this is exactly what so many of us on this forum, including you, have been saying. The question really becomes: why aren't the Pakistani masses clamoring for accountability?

The answer is not pretty. Could it be that we, as a society, like the way things are?

No taxes, corruption, no police.

There is a certain way of doing business which prefers this scenario, and perhaps the Pakistani public is so used to this way that they are afraid to try anything new. After all, change is a two-way street and, as bad as things are, people are afraid to rock the boat, especially knowing the cast of characters running the show.

As I posted above and the very last sentence of the report says, it is up to the people of Pakistan to pass collective judgment in the elections.

Now we know what that collective judgement is: We, as a society, do like the way things are.

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@Aeronaut @nuclearpak @Oscar @Elmo or any mod: Please approve this post, thanks.

 

[Kloitra]

Why didn't ISI or any other security or intelligence agency caught or got suspicious of Shakeel Afridi and his fake polio workers involving fake polio vaccination service? He was the main guy who provided important information to US! How did he do that without getting caught?

The authorities probably didn't understood the seriousness, neither the direction his actions were leading to. It is not very difficult for con-artists to create a setup. Add a lacklustre (and this is the discussion topic here) establishment, and we have a capable man aided by most powerful intelligence agency performing a show, for very limited audience.

Abbottabad Commission orders treason case against Dr Afridi - thenews.com.pk

According to the official report, Dr Shakeel Afridi had launched a fake polio campaign in Abbottabad in 2011 and brought vacant boxes of polio from the Jamrud Hospital of Khyber Agency without the permission of concerned authorities. A surgeon of Jamrud Hospital, Dr Tahir, had sent a report to the Fata Secretariat in this regard but no action was taken on the same.

Why would a doctor come under their radar, unless they knew of OBL's presence.

 

[Amaa'n]

Yes, we have achieved that result already, have we not?
The reality of the situation is clearly described by the report: " ... why civilian governance has deteriorated rather than improved over recent decades is that it has been forcibly displaced, constrained and rendered irrelevant."

The Army has played its role in the development of the present mess which has been brewing for decades, not just the last few years. It is clearly not innocent. But, the civilian leaders are to blame as well. After all, this is a collective failure where everybody played a nefarious role.

Is the Army a road barrier now? Possibly not. But the positive results of this claimed and relatively recent change will become evident only after this purported change of heart on part of the military takes hold for the next few decades to allow this Aegean stable to be flushed clean of the burden of our history. If we have that much time, that is.

The report goes on to clearly state this: "Whatever short-term and temporary advantages of more disciplined non-civilian rule, it inevitably leads to a fatal weakening of the foundations of good governance and the rule of law."

So now that we have finally killed off good governance and rotted out our foundations completely with our repeated experiments with "more disciplined non-civilian rule" for "short-term and temporary advantages", where do we go from here, Sir? The only way left is down.

I will repeat what i have said above sir and what Develpereo said that civil leadership has failed to address the issues which fall under its jurisdiction , in this case one can clearly see how miserably Civil departments have failed recognize the potentional threats. The city was flooded with militants, and Home Sec, DCO, DPO, DIG were well were of it and yet they called the region as Peaceful city, and amazing thing to note was that, militants were buried with honor.
From Nadra to Revenue Department every department failed to do its core job. I highly doubt if any of the generals interfere in the workings of Cantt board, Revenue Depart, or FBR. Till today they do not have system to verify whether the ID card I gave them as a proof is valid or not.
A doctor was able to get approval for his fake medical camp from EDO and Provincial head over the phone without following the due process or submitting the documents.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

...........
@Argus Panoptes you have been arguing to the fact that civil institutions were newer allowed to flourish than let me point you towards the statements given by Home Secretary, IG Police, Chief Sec and the CM himself.
According to CM it was advised to him by IG, DIG, HS, CS that the matter should be left with Federal Govt and it is not in their capacity to handle it.
This raises a question that they were pointing to the fact that they lacked the resources to carry out the investigation or did they lack the commitment and willingness to lead. What i feel from CM's reply is that he was advised to not dig into it. As they say in urdu "sir se utarne wali baat". Let me point you to para 198, 199, 200 ( CM KPK statement)
One can see the competence and commitment of the Civil leadership by seeing the fact that commission has to face so many problems in its own creation.........

Your question, valid as it is, has been answered by the report. Whether you regard the civil administration as lacking in resources or lacking in commitment, it is due to the fact that "it has been forcibly displaced, constrained and rendered irrelevant". Thus, civil administration, whatever you believe to be the causes, has been rendered irrelevant. Please think about all the ramifications that such irrelevance entails.

As I asked above, now that we have finally killed off good governance and rotted out our foundations completely, where do we go from here? The only way left is down.

=============

============== @Aeronaut @nuclearpak @Oscar @Elmo or any mod: Please approve this post, thanks.

 

[Amaa'n]

Your question, valid as it is, has been answered by the report. Whether you regard the civil administration as lacking in resources or lacking in commitment, it is due to the fact that "it has been forcibly displaced, constrained and rendered irrelevant". Thus, civil administration, whatever you believe to be the causes, has been rendered irrelevant. Please think about all the ramifications that such irrelevance entails.

As I asked above, now that we have finally killed off good governance and rotted out our foundations completely, where do we go from here? The only way left is down.

=============

============== @Aeronaut @nuclearpak @Oscar @Elmo or any mod: Please approve this post, thanks.

To be honest I dont agree with that, and I have given my remarks. Civilians might jave some constraints when it comes to Foreign And Defence Policy, but not when it.comes to civil administration.......they had democratic and independent parliament and yet it took them.2 months to form the commission. It was said that the report will be made public in urdu and english and hete we are reading it.from a foreign source.

Talking about what can be done from here than I wont add more to what Oscar has said. A strong and committed leadership.which will bring in the change. A lot could have been done since 2008 but most of the time was wasted