Abbotabad Report | Discussions, analysis & recommendations.

[Myth_buster_1]

Ayesha sadiqi says, Americans can buy generals with visas and $$.... as if they have not bought her. what a *****

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Human history and behavior tell us that power is intoxicating and addictive. A reasonable deduction from your statements is that the military could have a vested interest in continuing failures of civil apparati to ensure its hold on power. Why wouldn't they? Or are we to assume that our military is totally selfless?

The reality is that we have a classic Catch-22 situation. The military will not give up power because the civil authorities fail. The civil authorities will continue to fail because they have no real authority or even the mechanisms to develop basic competencies. Hence the present situation.
@Aeronaut please approve this post. I have downloaded the entire PDF file and will be able to comment after reading it all, which would take a few days.

You have made some valid points there. It seems to be just too much of a "vicious circle syndrome" that has led to this state of affairs. Shuja Pasha's (purported) statement of "failing state" is "over the top" in my view. Just as that hackneyed expression of "failed state" is just bunkum or bakwaas. More apposite is the possible characterisation of a "Bonsai State" (Stunted State) where the institutions that must form a part of it have not been able to grow in any mature or balanced manner.
Anyway this leaked Dossier will be on the reading lists of many people now (as well as my own) to understand in some detail what conclusions the Commission may have arrived at.

@nuclearpak; please vet this post, for necessary action.

 

[Solomon2]

Politicians will always cry that they do not have the authority on certain institutions and those institutions will also cry that it is the mere incompetency of the Civilian leaders that they are not entrusted with things (which btw hold true). A restructuring and re-building is required in the Intelligence agencies and LEA of the country - including ISI. A central authority is to be formed which will ensure a clear line of communication and co-ordination between IAs and LEAs.

The agencies are too powerful, too unaccountable - they get blamed whether it's their fault or not.

A solution would be separation-of-powers and parliamentary oversight and confirmation of officers nominated by the PM or president. You'll just have to put up with the incompetence of the politicians as best you can, perhaps exposing the really stupid useless ones to the public so they can be voted out of office.

 

[SQ8]

Is official veracity needed to restate the obvious?

The question is, what difference will it make? This report, that report.. that program , this leak, that talk show revelation?
In essence, our condition as Pakistanis is that of a drifting titanic which hit the iceberg long ago and is flooding up. There are the first class passenger berths who are already booked on the lift boats and ready to go. The rest are clamoring to get out while the third class passengers have been locked up to make sure they don't disturb the first class as it packs up whatever it wants to take and leaves..all the while the violists are playing soothing tunes of destiny, Tabdeeli and Ummah to keep the panicking passengers at bay.

The purported CIA operative is right when he says that everyone and ANYone can be bought. And the nuclear weapons we are trying to show as safe to the world from terrorists.. are actually not safe or secure for their real stakeholders which are the Pakistani people. If anyone can be bought, then so can anyone(s) be someone(s) who can give away the locations of your warheads to some. Some who would want to "secure" them from so-called terrorist threats.

It sucks being a doomsday prophecy maker.. but at the end.. this cloud as NO silver lining.. as the essence of silver lining.. the people. are dead.. or in trances of tabdeeli, of sheep in tiger skin, of shaheeds and nationalism. They are NOT going to wake.

We all have "what if" scenario's of good governance, of good people.. of good actions.. of tomorrow. But all of these ideas and brilliant well thought out plans ignore is the essence needed to make them move.. their variable , their constant.. their fuel; the Pakistani people. When this particular element is spoilt, dirty, cancerous and incapable of salvage.. then all these ideas of governance and economic uplift and dams and fighterjets are useless.

I can hope for a damning revolution or event that will change their emotions but we already had two of these events in the earthquake and flood. All that did was move a middle class whose major contribution was old clothes and things they did not want.. Until those who were at the volunteer center's had to beg them to stop bringing munna's old clothes and bring food instead. Thank god for a the few and I mean a few who really did pile up the collection areas at the PAF museum during that time with actual useful stuff. Others gave money.. those that could give money decided to give whatever they could give that was not for their months usage. The major force of donors was abroad.. overseas Pakistanis gave a lot. Yet,even in times of death and despair.. most of the countrymen including our khaki's part of the disaster management authority siphoned off millions in accounting tricks. The same happened with the floods..

So when these large scale disasters seem to only incite a response from less than 15% of Pakistanis.. then why are we expecting a change?
Those who were leading Tabdeeli Tabdeeli were also the same who covered their noses and said "Uff, what a stink" when a person who lived in the 15000 a month flat less than a km from the near million dollar homes on sunset boulevard in Karachi came to vote for the same person their son and his girlfriend were wearing T-Shirts and Capri's for. On the other side, people simply came to vote because they knew they would be taking a bullet to their houses or tortured if they did not vote for a man sitting abroad. In other places, people voted a man into power .. who in 98, with the nation bankrupt and defaulting.. was making statements of approving 20 Crore for the uplift of a pathetic guest house next to a resort hotel in Murree.
So how will these people , this particular land, produce on the scale required .. the people for change?

What is the point of my repetitive sob story? Well, for all the ideas about institutional damage and institutional repair. Of leaders and leadership, of Civilians and Army and what not. All these ideas ignore the key element in it which is the Pakistani people. Walk outside and look..then see if you can guess what the priorities of those around you.. walking on the street, on the bike, on the compact and the Mercedes really are? Do they really look like the type to make change, to stand for a cause in ENOUGH numbers to actually make a change?. Is there any common theme, or message that you can gather.. which will make all of them.. from the guy pushing a cart to the car buying from it?

We have all seen the change actors come and stay.. they all bring energy and fresh ideas but at the end they succumb to being changed themselves by sycophantic suckups and their own desires. IK is no different, all those in line for him will find that even he is faced with the reality that is Pakistanis. In his attempt to bring change he has himself changed as much as he likes to deny it. Poor change management is perhaps one reason.. the idea was for the energy to dissipate into those around him and have them change their ideas but that energy has gone flat .. or the message isnt the same anymore.

We have already seen attempts at changing institutions and the results have not been very fruitful. Simply because the generation of my father has been totally ineffective in its goals and desires.. and the generation after him is even worse. Education is not only of token subjects but also of morals and ethics.. something which is now gone from Pakistani education. The premier schools of the country who vow to produce 11A grades and Harvard graduates have to hide cases of rape and drug abuse within their halls.
My generation is not doing any better either, some parts like me care but dont want to do anything beyond writing on online forums, speaking in drawing rooms or sending out donations now and then..others are wound up in unemployment, others are wound up being parrots who only know how to say "Shirk" and "bidah"... The one after mine is the product of an even worse condition.. they wound up in suicide jackets.

So when this collective breed of Pakistanis is losing its moral, ethical and humane quality despite so called education.. then there is only chaos ahead without strong institutions. Now strong institutions are simply not there because the past generation did not care to bring them up. In essence, your cycle of those that come from the system to keep the system running is degenerative. False ideas of Tabdeeli and change seem to convince us that large scale gatherings an concerts will change the nation but at the very same time, we forget that due to increasing polarization and population.. the rate at which people who truly believe in changing society for the better being produced is increasing at a much lesser rate than those who simply dont care(or would want to make it worse).

Lets look at the idea of change as well.. and why it has failed in Pakistan.
Most of these revolutionaries, changers .. leaders.. who claim to bring change, instill change in society as if its H2O; They assume that the condition is static , and they will thaw it.. mold it to their shape and then freeze it again into the ice they want it to be. This is what the military is trying in Balochistan and this is what their counterparts in India are trying hopelessly in Kashmir as well. It totally ignores , that people in their essence resist change.. they dont want it.
If Children in class are uncomfortable with changing their seats.. then why should be expect any less of them when they grow into adults?? Change is something that has to be accomplished with power, now this power or energy has to move throughout the entire stakeholders of the process and change them.. otherwise it will simply move them about like a multicolored beads in a container which will return to settle in its usual shape(or just different arrangements). It will not change the beads into anything else or better.

Generally, change cannot be brought on from the bottom.. or at least not unless there is a certain authority present around the individual..be it slowly created.. or already there. Hence, even if you look at organization or businesses as a rough analogy of a country...then change is brought in from the top.
But does it always need a dynamic leader? Does it always need a figurehead who holds all the power? No, which is why such a figurehead ideally looks to convert others to the process and bring it within the system. If this figurehead is not able to transfer that authority, that energy , or rather the identification of that energy into other individuals..then his influence remains limited and he will not truly bring any change.
Now, if you are going to change anything.. say PTI's publicized label.. then that Naya Pakistan needs a strong reason.. or more importantly.. the reason needs to be dissipated within the population IN A CLEAR message. Well, while PTI had a reason, it had little in terms of clarity in its message.. and instead relied on a jumble of mixed statements. Meanwhile, the usual voters for PML(N), PPP or otherwise had a clear message for them... Vote and food.. Vote and house.. Vote and live. You cant beat that.

Next, this process cannot be non-coherent and jumping on different ideals.. Which is why there were areas where the idea of change never gets through in Pakistan. And finally , there must be tactics to manage those resisting change... unfortunately, these are never practiced in Pakistan and generally those who oppose are usually steamrolled in Pakistan..either as Traitors, Liberals, Extremists, Mushriks and Munafiqs. Instead of looking at emotional perspectives of opponents.. this leads to them standing up on their own principles as vociferous as ever.. and at the end.. the loudest one and one with Loghorrea prevails as the "truth". The idea is not too appease people in such a process, but to use smart tactics.. and this has clearly not been done by the current poster-boys for change in the PTI.. nor by the Military when it needs to do so... nor by the Judiciary, nor by any players with even an ounce of sincerity. Those that do actually use these behavioral tactics, are extremists and terrorists.. or other unscrupulous characters that work in cohesion with foreign hands to destabilize the social fabric beyond its already explosive state.

Hence, I reiterate.. without the right change agents to change the key essence that powers institutional change..there is little other to do than fanciful dreams or plans based on the idea the leadership or good governance will emerge miraculously.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

You have made some valid points there. It seems to be just too much of a "vicious circle syndrome" that has led to this state of affairs. Shuja Pasha's (purported) statement of "failing state" is "over the top" in my view. Just as that hackneyed expression of "failed state" is just bunkum or bakwaas. More apposite is the possible characterisation of a "Bonsai State" (Stunted State) where the institutions that must form a part of it have not been able to grow in any mature or balanced manner.
Anyway this leaked Dossier will be on the reading lists of many people now (as well as my own) to understand in some detail what conclusions the Commission may have arrived at.

@nuclearpak; please vet this post, for necessary action.

Whether you call it Failing or Failed or Bonsai, this paragraph is the one that I fear is the most prophetic about our future:


Para-757 by ArgusPanoptes007, on Flickr
=============================


@Aeronaut @nuclearpak please approve this post. The report makes for deep thinking on several levels. I wonder when Page 197 will be leaked?

 

[SQ8]

I wonder when Page 197 will be leaked?

When Pakistan is done and over with.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

The final few sentences of the report (Para 795) are worthy of being read, slowly and with full comprehension:

But finally, no honest assessment of the situation can escape the conclusion that those individuals who wielded primary authority and influence in national decision making bear the primary responsibility for creating the national circumstances and environment in which the May 2, 2011 incident occurred. It is unnecessary to specifically name them because it is obvious who they are. It may be politically unrealistic to suggest "punishments" for them. But as honourable men, they ought to do the honourable thing, including submitting a formal apology to the nation for their dereliction of duty. It will be for the people of Pakistan to pass collective judgment on them.

The real sad thing about the whole saga is not that nobody behaved honourably and apologize or resign or even accept responsibility, but that the whole nation simply shrugged off this huge insult to their nationhood and elected the same players all over again. What meaning does this judgment have for the future of the nation?

Aisee bayhiss qaum ka kuch nahi ho sakta, yeh doob ker zaroor marey gee, aaj nahi tau kal.

===================================
@Aeronaut @nuclearpak @Oscar or any mod, please approve this post.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Whether you call it Failing or Failed or Bonsai, this paragraph is the one that I fear is the most prophetic about our future:


Para-757 by ArgusPanoptes007, on Flickr
=============================


@Aeronaut @nuclearpak please approve this post. The report makes for deep thinking on several levels. I wonder when Page 197 will be leaked?

If I may be permitted: may I seek to respond.

The Commission in para:757 says inter-alia:
"“does point to the truth that farcical Democracy, i.e. Democratic form without democratic substance , leads to criminal mis-governance.”

This is the kind of statement that becomes so inviting to "shoot down Democracy" but in fact only ends up in a State/Nation "shooting itself in the foot". The kind of statement that has been used again and again as 'fig-leaves' to kick out Democratic Processes again and again. Though I do not think that the Commision is here advocating such an action.

In our South Asian Milieu that we (India and Pakistan) grew into in 1947; most people were so uneducated so as to be considered to be unworthy of being the Democratic Right to rule themselves; actually they were even considered to unfit to given the Right to Vote!
In my view; neither Education or even Literacy has anything to do with a Human Being's ability to choose between Right and Wrong, Just and Unjust and so on. It is only when the People go through that process (even if it may be seemingly flawed) that they gain the ability to provide what the Commission may willingly call "Meaningful Democracy" instead of "Farcical Democracy". That is an evolutionary process that Societies must necessarily undergo to reach what the Commision says is the ideal level of:
"Only an aware, active, organised and mobilised Citizenry................."

If we do not allow that process (which can be painful and time-consuming if I may add) to take place; then inevitably: the "Bonsai State" (or Stunted State) will be the result.

 

[A1Kaid]

Mere change of Govt. will never and can never resolve the key issues or flaws in the system. As @nuclearpak has pointed out that there is no co-ordination between Intelligence Agencies of the country and so does the LEA.
Let me just add here that ISI is an agency which does not like to share its information with other agencies, be it MI or the IB and these other agencies does the vice versa.
Again if mere change of Govt was to do much than we would not be seeing one Intel Agency of the country holding major stakes, even in the era of Musharaf this was not the case.
Politicians will always cry that they do not have the authority on certain institutions and those institutions will also cry that it is the mere incompetency of the Civilian leaders that they are not entrusted with things (which btw hold true).

A restructuring and re-building is required in the Intelligence agencies and LEA of the country - including ISI. A central authority is to be formed which will ensure a clear line of communication and co-ordination between IAs and LEAs.

I guess this is what Pasha saab was trying to say here too. more will be said once i read the full report
@nuclearpak @Aeronaut approval for the post please

A restructuring and re-building is required in the Intelligence agencies and LEA of the country - including ISI. A central authority is to be formed which will ensure a clear line of communication and co-ordination between IAs and LEAs.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/senior...e-failing-state-says-pasha.html#ixzz2Ya72HoRz

That can't happen without change in government, and that's the point.

Again if mere change of Govt was to do much than we would not be seeing one Intel Agency of the country holding major stakes, even in the era of Musharaf this was not the case.
Politicians will always cry that they do not have the authority on certain institutions and those institutions will also cry that it is the mere incompetency of the Civilian leaders that they are not entrusted with things (which btw hold true).

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/senior...e-failing-state-says-pasha.html#ixzz2Ya7XuNUH

You can't change the system if you don't change the government. That's what you need to learn.

 

[jaunty]

I wonder when Page 197 will be leaked?

So is there only one page missing from the report? or are there more missing pages?

 

[A1Kaid]

Which new power projects have been launched?

As for the rest, they are all on words till now. The previous government also made alot of promises...

As for projects with China, these are all MoU's, further process will take the best part of a year even if they are fast tracked.

Until the projects get 60% completed, I won't be putting a tick on them.

Here's what your favorite N league does.



When you are going to use intel agencies for your personal aims, this sort of stuff is going to happen. IB is a tool for the party in power, not a interior intel organization.

The only agency in Pakistan doing it's job is ISI and then the MI, AI and NI. IB, FIA and others have all turned into personal ventures. There is a reasons why ISI isn't under these politicians.

Chinese company launches wind energy project in Pakistan - Worldnews.com

Future Projects: Govt plans 2,500MW from wind energy by end of 2015

Government has already prepared the necessary finances for the wind energy project in Sindh. Don't worry about the possibility this isn't Zardari Government, PM Nawaz Sharif is far more competent in government. As I've already said load shedding had already been reduced in major cities, you live in Pakistan this should be clear to you.

 

[Developereo]

Human history and behavior tell us that power is intoxicating and addictive. A reasonable deduction from your statements is that the military could have a vested interest in continuing failures of civil apparati to ensure its hold on power. Why wouldn't they? Or are we to assume that our military is totally selfless?

The reality is that we have a classic Catch-22 situation. The military will not give up power because the civil authorities fail. The civil authorities will continue to fail because they have no real authority or even the mechanisms to develop basic competencies. Hence the present situation.
@Aeronaut please approve this post. I have downloaded the entire PDF file and will be able to comment after reading it all, which would take a few days.

While your observation is true in certain aspects (especially foreign policy), it does not absolve the civilians from providing governance in other areas.

Again, I ask: is the army/ISI stopping the civilians from formulating an energy policy? a public health policy? an education policy? an infrastructure policy? a jobs scheme? taxation reform?

 

[Developereo]

“you are so cheap… we can buy you with a visa,”

That is why the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis would trust the ISI over the civilians any day of the week. We know how the civilian administration works -- or, more exactly, doesn't work until bribes are provided -- from the housing permit to the passport office.

That's not to say that the ISI is beyond corruption, but it's a better bet than the civilians.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

While your observation is true in certain aspects (especially foreign policy), it does not absolve the civilians from providing governance in other areas.

Again, I ask: is the army/ISI stopping the civilians from formulating an energy policy? a public health policy? an education policy? an infrastructure policy? a jobs scheme? taxation reform?

Did you read Para 757 of the report Sir? What do you think it gives as a possible reply to your questions?


Para-757 by ArgusPanoptes007, on Flickr
=============================


@Aeronaut @nuclearpak please approve this post.

 

[Bratva]

@balixd @nuclearpak In between pages 170-200, there is a statement from ISI local detachment commander-Abbotabad. He clearly said we do all our ops in abbotabad without involving LEA and local police and local Police or LEA didn't knew when ISI apprehended Omar Parekh who was there to meet OBL yet ISI was failed to get this piece of info from him

This is the state of our Intel agencies, where our they work, they like to work independently, so how can we expect better results if there is no cooperation. You both are right that co-ordination is on case to case and there is serious lack of co-ordination despite Interior ministry crises cell, National Counter Terrorism Authority which were created to make all intel LEA work better yet they failed in their objective to bring all of them on one table