Ababeel SSM - Pakistan gains MIRV technology.

[Cookie Monster]

My dear,

This discussion will only lurk between desirable and doable, without going into what is actually happening or will happen.

MIRVed intercontinental SLBM would require larger submarines with VLS. We do not have such a boat and we cannot bet on the Chinese boats until we see what they are. The Chinese Qing-Class submarine is designed to launch SLBM but the boat is just a testbed for testing newer technologies and there is only one example of it. I doubt the Qing is on our plate.

As you pointed, our economy is sluggish, and we also need to consider if we have the capacity to develop and operate both the intercontinental-SLBM and the launch platform. Our second-strike capability is likely to be limited to SLCM. It is, however, likely that Pakistan would develop a long-range SLCM (possibly 1000km-1500km) in the future but I do not expect anything beyond that, not unless the threat environment changes drastically.

What I'm discussing is definitely not short term due to various reasons...economy being one of them...I'm basing this on a few things...

1) First is the obvious need...
...what I discussed is the only true second strike capability. Pak's subs carrying nuclear SLCM even with 1000-1500km range are not enough. First the subs can't exactly get close to the coast. IN is massive and they have a decent number of P8I for sub hunting(in addition to their navy). At best the closest Pak's subs can get is a couple hundred kilometers off the Indian coast. That easily shaves off 200-250km off of the range(the distance a nuclear tipped SLCM will have to travel over the ocean to get to a land target). So even with stacking everything in favor of Pak...as in a submarine firing a 1500km range nuclear SLCM from 200km out without getting detected...that gives the missile(in optimal conditions) a 1300km range inland...that's not nearly enough. This is under a best case scenario where we r ignoring these two other factors below...
--> a drawback for having a limited range is that it gives a somewhat of a rough range to the enemy...where they would be actively searching for Pak's subs. So if it's 450km right now(the current range of Babur SLCM) that gives IN an area of that range(450km off the coast) to hunt for Pak's subs(in the event Pak is trying to go for a second strike...as in Pak's land based first strike has been neutralized). With 1500km range SLCM...the area to search gets much bigger. However with a nuclear tipped ICBM(preferably MIRV)...that sub could be sitting anywhere in the world...outside the range of IN and their P8I. It truly becomes like finding a needle in a haystack(even that would be easier). That's when second strike CANNOT be avoided.
--> the second drawback is Indian Air Defense network. It might be able to shoot down at least some of those SLCMs. In the case of a MIRV SLBM(Intercontinental)...it would be much easier to get through air defenses. Hence a nuclear sub with submarine launched MIRV ICBMs is the only true second strike capability that will give pause to the enemy to think a thousand times before taking any aggressive action.

2) Secondly I'm basing this off of some rumors by Rafi(a well respected member who has proven credibility) that Pak is working on a miniaturized nuclear reactor(like the one that's used in nuclear submarine). Additionally Khafee has said that Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs. At this point idk if Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs from China or making them...but it seems it's probably on the cards somewhere down the line.

3) while the mini nuclear reactor is not yet confirmed...what has been confirmed is Pak's development of a MIRV missile(Ababeel). Also given Pak's long history of developing ballistic missiles, along with Chinese assistance(behind closed doors)...it wouldnt be impossible for Pak to develop an ICBM either if Pak went that route.

So based on the need of a true second strike capability...along with things that point to Pak developing certain things that would later serve as the key pieces of the puzzle...it's not far fetched to think that this might be a long term goal.

 

[SABRE]

What I'm discussing is definitely not short term due to various reasons...economy being one of them...I'm basing this on a few things...

1) First is the obvious need...
...what I discussed is the only true second strike capability. Pak's subs carrying nuclear SLCM even with 1000-1500km range are not enough. First the subs can't exactly get close to the coast. IN is massive and they have a decent number of P8I for sub hunting(in addition to their navy). At best the closest Pak's subs can get is a couple hundred kilometers off the Indian coast. That easily shaves off 200-250km off of the range(the distance a nuclear tipped SLCM will have to travel over the ocean to get to a land target). So even with stacking everything in favor of Pak...as in a submarine firing a 1500km range nuclear SLCM from 200km out without getting detected...that gives the missile(in optimal conditions) a 1300km range inland...that's not nearly enough. This is under a best case scenario where we r ignoring these two other factors below...
--> a drawback for having a limited range is that it gives a somewhat of a rough range to the enemy...where they would be actively searching for Pak's subs. So if it's 450km right now(the current range of Babur SLCM) that gives IN an area of that range(450km off the coast) to hunt for Pak's subs(in the event Pak is trying to go for a second strike...as in Pak's land based first strike has been neutralized). With 1500km range SLCM...the area to search gets much bigger. However with a nuclear tipped ICBM(preferably MIRV)...that sub could be sitting anywhere in the world...outside the range of IN and their P8I. It truly becomes like finding a needle in a haystack(even that would be easier). That's when second strike CANNOT be avoided.
--> the second drawback is Indian Air Defense network. It might be able to shoot down at least some of those SLCMs. In the case of a MIRV SLBM(Intercontinental)...it would be much easier to get through air defenses. Hence a nuclear sub with submarine launched MIRV ICBMs is the only true second strike capability that will give pause to the enemy to think a thousand times before taking any aggressive action.

2) Secondly I'm basing this off of some rumors by Rafi(a well respected member who has proven credibility) that Pak is working on a miniaturized nuclear reactor(like the one that's used in nuclear submarine). Additionally Khafee has said that Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs. At this point idk if Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs from China or making them...but it seems it's probably on the cards somewhere down the line.

3) while the mini nuclear reactor is not yet confirmed...what has been confirmed is Pak's development of a MIRV missile(Ababeel). Also given Pak's long history of developing ballistic missiles, along with Chinese assistance(behind closed doors)...it wouldnt be impossible for Pak to develop an ICBM either if Pak went that route.

So based on the need of a true second strike capability...along with things that point to Pak developing certain things that would later serve as the key pieces of the puzzle...it's not far fetched to think that this might be a long term goal.

I agree with what you are saying. Point no.1 has been my argument as well. There is too much predictability with a limited range of the delivery system (missile) and endurance of the platform (submarine). Additionally, submarine technology has come a long way where equipping SLBMs on conventional submarines equipped with AIP systems is now being considered for litoral nuclear deterrence. Whether Pakistan is pursuing such a path we cannot definitively say at the moment, but it is the right path to pursue. But we need to consider our limitations to determine what is doable and what is desirable. Given our present economic and technical capacities submarines able to launch intercontinental-SLBM (& the said SLBM itself) does not appear plausible. What we might come up with in the long run we would have to wait and see.

 

[StormBreaker]

What I'm discussing is definitely not short term due to various reasons...economy being one of them...I'm basing this on a few things...

1) First is the obvious need...
...what I discussed is the only true second strike capability. Pak's subs carrying nuclear SLCM even with 1000-1500km range are not enough. First the subs can't exactly get close to the coast. IN is massive and they have a decent number of P8I for sub hunting(in addition to their navy). At best the closest Pak's subs can get is a couple hundred kilometers off the Indian coast. That easily shaves off 200-250km off of the range(the distance a nuclear tipped SLCM will have to travel over the ocean to get to a land target). So even with stacking everything in favor of Pak...as in a submarine firing a 1500km range nuclear SLCM from 200km out without getting detected...that gives the missile(in optimal conditions) a 1300km range inland...that's not nearly enough. This is under a best case scenario where we r ignoring these two other factors below...
--> a drawback for having a limited range is that it gives a somewhat of a rough range to the enemy...where they would be actively searching for Pak's subs. So if it's 450km right now(the current range of Babur SLCM) that gives IN an area of that range(450km off the coast) to hunt for Pak's subs(in the event Pak is trying to go for a second strike...as in Pak's land based first strike has been neutralized). With 1500km range SLCM...the area to search gets much bigger. However with a nuclear tipped ICBM(preferably MIRV)...that sub could be sitting anywhere in the world...outside the range of IN and their P8I. It truly becomes like finding a needle in a haystack(even that would be easier). That's when second strike CANNOT be avoided.
--> the second drawback is Indian Air Defense network. It might be able to shoot down at least some of those SLCMs. In the case of a MIRV SLBM(Intercontinental)...it would be much easier to get through air defenses. Hence a nuclear sub with submarine launched MIRV ICBMs is the only true second strike capability that will give pause to the enemy to think a thousand times before taking any aggressive action.

2) Secondly I'm basing this off of some rumors by Rafi(a well respected member who has proven credibility) that Pak is working on a miniaturized nuclear reactor(like the one that's used in nuclear submarine). Additionally Khafee has said that Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs. At this point idk if Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs from China or making them...but it seems it's probably on the cards somewhere down the line.

3) while the mini nuclear reactor is not yet confirmed...what has been confirmed is Pak's development of a MIRV missile(Ababeel). Also given Pak's long history of developing ballistic missiles, along with Chinese assistance(behind closed doors)...it wouldnt be impossible for Pak to develop an ICBM either if Pak went that route.

So based on the need of a true second strike capability...along with things that point to Pak developing certain things that would later serve as the key pieces of the puzzle...it's not far fetched to think that this might be a long term goal.

Very well written, hats off

 

[Safriz]

What I'm discussing is definitely not short term due to various reasons...economy being one of them...I'm basing this on a few things...

1) First is the obvious need...
...what I discussed is the only true second strike capability. Pak's subs carrying nuclear SLCM even with 1000-1500km range are not enough. First the subs can't exactly get close to the coast. IN is massive and they have a decent number of P8I for sub hunting(in addition to their navy). At best the closest Pak's subs can get is a couple hundred kilometers off the Indian coast. That easily shaves off 200-250km off of the range(the distance a nuclear tipped SLCM will have to travel over the ocean to get to a land target). So even with stacking everything in favor of Pak...as in a submarine firing a 1500km range nuclear SLCM from 200km out without getting detected...that gives the missile(in optimal conditions) a 1300km range inland...that's not nearly enough. This is under a best case scenario where we r ignoring these two other factors below...
--> a drawback for having a limited range is that it gives a somewhat of a rough range to the enemy...where they would be actively searching for Pak's subs. So if it's 450km right now(the current range of Babur SLCM) that gives IN an area of that range(450km off the coast) to hunt for Pak's subs(in the event Pak is trying to go for a second strike...as in Pak's land based first strike has been neutralized). With 1500km range SLCM...the area to search gets much bigger. However with a nuclear tipped ICBM(preferably MIRV)...that sub could be sitting anywhere in the world...outside the range of IN and their P8I. It truly becomes like finding a needle in a haystack(even that would be easier). That's when second strike CANNOT be avoided.
--> the second drawback is Indian Air Defense network. It might be able to shoot down at least some of those SLCMs. In the case of a MIRV SLBM(Intercontinental)...it would be much easier to get through air defenses. Hence a nuclear sub with submarine launched MIRV ICBMs is the only true second strike capability that will give pause to the enemy to think a thousand times before taking any aggressive action.

2) Secondly I'm basing this off of some rumors by Rafi(a well respected member who has proven credibility) that Pak is working on a miniaturized nuclear reactor(like the one that's used in nuclear submarine). Additionally Khafee has said that Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs. At this point idk if Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs from China or making them...but it seems it's probably on the cards somewhere down the line.

3) while the mini nuclear reactor is not yet confirmed...what has been confirmed is Pak's development of a MIRV missile(Ababeel). Also given Pak's long history of developing ballistic missiles, along with Chinese assistance(behind closed doors)...it wouldnt be impossible for Pak to develop an ICBM either if Pak went that route.

So based on the need of a true second strike capability...along with things that point to Pak developing certain things that would later serve as the key pieces of the puzzle...it's not far fetched to think that this might be a long term goal.

You do realise that Pakistan never tells exact range of their missiles and they highlight this be stating different ranges of the same missile after each test.

 

[Cookie Monster]

You do realise that Pakistan never tells exact range of their missiles and they highlight this be stating different ranges of the same missile after each test.

It's not about that...even if Pak's SLCM have ranges greater than stated...still true second strike capability comes with SLBMs(in nuclear powered subs). Once Pak has that...a retaliatory nuclear strike is GUARANTEED on the adversary. There are NO STEPS that can be taken(like neutralizing land based nukes) to avoid getting hit by nukes. I'm sure it's not lost on anyone in Pak military leadership the importance of MIRV SLBM(along with a boomer)...the only hindrance is the economy right now.

 

[Blacklight]

What I'm discussing is definitely not short term due to various reasons...economy being one of them...I'm basing this on a few things...

1) First is the obvious need...
...what I discussed is the only true second strike capability. Pak's subs carrying nuclear SLCM even with 1000-1500km range are not enough. First the subs can't exactly get close to the coast. IN is massive and they have a decent number of P8I for sub hunting(in addition to their navy). At best the closest Pak's subs can get is a couple hundred kilometers off the Indian coast. That easily shaves off 200-250km off of the range(the distance a nuclear tipped SLCM will have to travel over the ocean to get to a land target). So even with stacking everything in favor of Pak...as in a submarine firing a 1500km range nuclear SLCM from 200km out without getting detected...that gives the missile(in optimal conditions) a 1300km range inland...that's not nearly enough. This is under a best case scenario where we r ignoring these two other factors below...
--> a drawback for having a limited range is that it gives a somewhat of a rough range to the enemy...where they would be actively searching for Pak's subs. So if it's 450km right now(the current range of Babur SLCM) that gives IN an area of that range(450km off the coast) to hunt for Pak's subs(in the event Pak is trying to go for a second strike...as in Pak's land based first strike has been neutralized). With 1500km range SLCM...the area to search gets much bigger. However with a nuclear tipped ICBM(preferably MIRV)...that sub could be sitting anywhere in the world...outside the range of IN and their P8I. It truly becomes like finding a needle in a haystack(even that would be easier). That's when second strike CANNOT be avoided.
--> the second drawback is Indian Air Defense network. It might be able to shoot down at least some of those SLCMs. In the case of a MIRV SLBM(Intercontinental)...it would be much easier to get through air defenses. Hence a nuclear sub with submarine launched MIRV ICBMs is the only true second strike capability that will give pause to the enemy to think a thousand times before taking any aggressive action.

2) Secondly I'm basing this off of some rumors by Rafi(a well respected member who has proven credibility) that Pak is working on a miniaturized nuclear reactor(like the one that's used in nuclear submarine). Additionally Khafee has said that Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs. At this point idk if Pak will be acquiring nuclear subs from China or making them...but it seems it's probably on the cards somewhere down the line.

3) while the mini nuclear reactor is not yet confirmed...what has been confirmed is Pak's development of a MIRV missile(Ababeel). Also given Pak's long history of developing ballistic missiles, along with Chinese assistance(behind closed doors)...it wouldnt be impossible for Pak to develop an ICBM either if Pak went that route.

So based on the need of a true second strike capability...along with things that point to Pak developing certain things that would later serve as the key pieces of the puzzle...it's not far fetched to think that this might be a long term goal.

Hypothetical Scenario.

I gift you a smart phone, and the battery lasts you an avg of 12hrs. You throw out that battery and install yours, now your phone lasts 24hrs, and it is now indigenous.

Funny world we live in.

 

[Safriz]

It's not about that...even if Pak's SLCM have ranges greater than stated...still true second strike capability comes with SLBMs(in nuclear powered subs). Once Pak has that...a retaliatory nuclear strike is GUARANTEED on the adversary. There are NO STEPS that can be taken(like neutralizing land based nukes) to avoid getting hit by nukes. I'm sure it's not lost on anyone in Pak military leadership the importance of MIRV SLBM(along with a boomer)...the only hindrance is the economy right now.

Pakistani second strike is land based.
Sea based nuclear capability is an added extra.
India doesn't have enough nuclear weapons to scorch entire Pakistan and neither has Pakistan .
At best or worst , both countries can target a few large cities of each other and kill a few millions.

Sea based second strike was a must have between USSR and USA because both had gigatons of nukes and could turn each other into wastelands of burning charcoal.
In Pakistan india scenario both don't need sea based deterrent for each other.
In fact Pakistan is already at an advantage because of highly mobile nukes.
Which are very hard to track and neutralise

 

[StormBreaker]

Hypothetical Scenario.

I gift you a smart phone, and the battery lasts you an avg of 12hrs. You throw out that battery and install yours, now your phone lasts 24hrs, and it is now indigenous.

Funny world we live in.

How can one fill 2 litre in a max 1 litre bottle ?

 

[Caprxl]

Hypothetical Scenario.

I gift you a smart phone, and the battery lasts you an avg of 12hrs. You throw out that battery and install yours, now your phone lasts 24hrs, and it is now indigenous.

Funny world we live in.

Ummm, are you saying the way to deal with MTCR ? Or am I wrong?

 

[StormBreaker]

Ummm, are you saying the way to deal with MTCR ? Or am I wrong?

Why ask when you already know it

 

[Caprxl]

Why ask when you already know it

Aise, Dil kar raha tha

 

[Blacklight]

Ummm, are you saying the way to deal with MTCR ? Or am I wrong?

No No, I was just explaining when one goes form NiCad to Li-ion.

 

[StormBreaker]

Aise, Dil kar raha tha

Still pissed off for 2020 march parade, I thought Ababeel might have appeared this time.

Allah ki marzi

 

[Caprxl]

Still pissed off for 2020 march parade, I thought Ababeel might have appeared this time.

Allah ki marzi

Only Operational Weapon Systems are displayed if am correct, so i think Ababeel will go for further testing & improvements for a more refined product until it meets the demand of the operators.

No No, I was just explaining when one goes form NiCad to Li-ion.

The message has been received & well understood

 

[Safriz]

Still pissed off for 2020 march parade, I thought Ababeel might have appeared this time.

Allah ki marzi

Same here.
Had high hopes and was waiting anxiously.