A deal on Kashmir is both easy and impossible

[dabong1]

The question was whether they are UN troops on the border. And they aren't. The UN observer mission is purely symbolic. Atleast I know the one in Srinagar is by virtue of being the resident there for about two and a half years.

My family comes from rajouri originally,i still have close family there but we live in khotli/mirpur in AJK.
I see the UN landcruisers coming back from there checkpost.
I think that United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) was set up in 1949 to supervise the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in the State of Jammu and Kashmir.

The question was whether they are UN troops on the border. And they aren't..

The reason the UN is there is to moniter the ceasefire,so by virtue of what they are monitoring they have to be near the borders.


I have a link to the site to the kashmir UN site.
http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missions/unmogip/index.html

 

[dabong1]

Say if the Valley and AJK are combined to form a separate entity. How police's the state? Who funds the state? Who gets access to the state's resources.If its not a state and a separate country, then there is now way it can sustain itself. It would need lots and lots and lots of aid for atleast 5 decades before it is self sufficient. What about its govt?

The police of both sides of kashmir will be joined together to form the kashmir police.
At the start both pakistan and india work out a amount they are willing to give to kashmir for a certain amount of time to get itself going.
Bro if ajk and valley joined together and got going they would survive easily.
In the ajk there is a huge amount of people that are working or living abroad.
The amount of foreign currency kashmiris bring into pakistan has kept it going through the rough times.With the combination of wealth and access to the european/arab and american markets these being the main places of residence for kashmiris abroad and having a well educated valley population with there tourisim and handcrafts i am sure after 5/10 year period you will see a wealthy,educated,multi cultural and multi religious kashmir.

If its a democracy, then how can we trust Pakistan not to interfere in Kashmir, it has no democratic institution iself.It is run by the military. Wont it prepare some army man or top police man to stage a coup and take control to eject any Indian observers?.

I think since 1971 there have been elections in AJK every five years regardless if there is a military government or not.
I am not saying that the elections are perfect or stating pakistans credentials as a democratic country only that there is a democratic tradition in AJK and the valley.
Bro pakistan did not eject india from kashmir i doubt very much it will do that to an indian official without a negative indian response.
If there any problems about elections we can bring in outside organizations that both nations agree to to moniter the elections.

No, there can only be countries. India and Pakistan. The rule of the law should be established. The boundaries settled-Which cannot be done. Thus in that eventuality, it is better to have status quo.

You prove my point about india not wanting a just and fair soultion on kashmir but that the peace talks are nothing more then a walk in the sun, holding hands ,making the world happy and then at the end telling the pakistanis lets make LOC into IB......back to square one.
The eventuality of this will not be the status quo but a more vicious war in kashmir.
There is nothing wrong with AJK/valley joining together.We can use both indian/pakistani currency,Representatives of the indian and pakistani government take up sensitive postion in kashmir,certain amount of seats in indian/pak parliment are given to kashmiri politicians,kashmiris take part in indian and pakistani elections,kashmir not to allow any armed forces in kashmir either pakistani or indian,kashmir not allowed to have an army,kashmir to have consulate in indian and pakistani embassies.
A complete break from india or pakistan makes no sense and would undermine kashmir economically.To cut kashmir of from the indian or pakistani political system would also be wrong as the new delhi and islamabad have a lot more power then srinagar/muzaffarabad.
I am not trying to argue but what would you accept other then the LOC into IB.

 

[vnomad]

My family comes from rajouri originally,i still have close family there but we live in khotli/mirpur in AJK.
I see the UN landcruisers coming back from there checkpost.
I think that United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) was set up in 1949 to supervise the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in the State of Jammu and Kashmir.

I've seen UN vehicles in Srinagar but the UNMOGIP has no significance here whatsover(it might be different on your side, I've no idea).

The reason the UN is there is to moniter the ceasefire,so by virtue of what they are monitoring they have to be near the borders.

Proves my point. Has its presence ever deterred conflict? The UN has no military presence in J&k.

 

[Bull]

Bro as far my understanding is ,india will keep jammu and ladakh but not the valley
The pakistani will keep gilgit and the northern areas but not azad kashmir.
The joint governance of the kashmir valley and azad kashmir will carried out by pakistan and india together with kashmiri leaders.
"The resulting entity would have its own secular, democratic constitution; distinct citizenship; a flag; and a legislature which would pass laws on all matters other than defence and foreign affairs".
The above statement counts only for azad kashmir and the kashmir valley and would take about 20 years to reach that stage.

That will be another Lebonon .
Neither India or Pakistan is willing to trust each other and both will infiltrate the governing mechnaism of Azad Kashmir as soon as iot is formed.

And after back to square one,and the situation wuld be much complicated.

 

[Bull]

You either want peace or not.
India gives up the valley,pakistan gives up azad kashmir.
You have to understand if pakistan is willing to give up azad kashmir for peace then india should do the same by giving the valley of kashmir to the kashmiris..

Who is asking you to give up. You can keep it and let India keep what its got too. End of the problem.

You are correct that there must be sacrifice from both sides.Pakistan has put enough propsals and moved a lot on kashmir.The indians so have offered nothing other then there stated postion..

Why should be there a sacrifice, and even if you look at it a sacrifice Pakistan relenquishing its mountaneous terrain can hardly be considered as a sacrifice. India holds the more economically viable area. So in such a situation India ends up losing/sacrificing more.

I do not think there will be peace in kashmir for the simple reason of indian stubborness.The time will come sooner or later when the pakistani government will realize that the indians do not want a just peace in kashmir that is acceptable to all three parties..

India is willing to convert LOC into IB,that itself is a relaxation from the early held position of "claim on entire Kashmir".

There are UN troops on the border of kashmir between india and pakistan.

Not troops, but observers.

 

[Bull]

Please tell me what is wrong with the proposal of india keeping jammu and ladakh.
Pakistan keeps NA and gilgit.
The indians give up the valley and the pakistanis give up AJK.
The valley and ajk are made into a country that is jointly ruled by pakistan,india and the kashmiris.
I have posted a few articles on the soultion to kashmir.We can can pick and choose what is acceptable to both countries.
What do you think is the middle ground that is acceptable to both parties other then the stated aims of pakistan and india ,LOC to be IB,UN referendum on kashmir.

Why so much complication, keep what you have and we keep what we have.

 

[Bull]

Say if the Valley and AJK are combined to form a separate entity. How police's the state? Who funds the state? Who gets access to the state's resources.

Its a bullshit proposal man.
Pakistan tried for so long and it hasnt made much headway in gaining access,what it has managed to is to lock up a our resources and troops.So now under the pretext of a modeate leader they are trying to gain access to the Kashmir valley via jt mechanism.

 

[dabong1]

Who is asking you to give up. You can keep it and let India keep what its got too. End of the problem.
Why should be there a sacrifice, and even if you look at it a sacrifice Pakistan relenquishing its mountaneous terrain can hardly be considered as a sacrifice. India holds the more economically viable area. So in such a situation India ends up losing/sacrificing more.
India is willing to convert LOC into IB,that itself is a relaxation from the early held position of "claim on entire Kashmir"..

Your proposals are good if your indian.
I have had a few discussions with indians about kashmir and what would be the best way forward , nine out of 10 come out with your propsals...the status quo.
The right wing in pakistan have been saying from the start that the indians only want the status quo and the peace talks are meaningless.
The more i speak to indians the more i agree with the right wing.
My own conclusion is that after the peace talks fail the freedom struggle in kashmir will take a more bloody course.
The first thing is an infidia based on the palestinian model will be established in kashmir.
The freedom fighters will take on the hezbollah model of warfare.In pakistan the army will make public that pakistan not only supports the kashmir struggle morally and diplomatically but also militarally.
I would like a peacefull solution to kashmir but going by india's intent i think we should carry on fighting until one country is destroyed.
You must be kidding yourself if you think we are going to let the last 15 years go to waste.
Do not forget it was only a couple of years ago everyone thought the taliban was finished ,last i heard they where taking over afghanistan again.
Pakistan reactivated the taliban they can do the same in kashmir.

Not troops, but observers.

The point is that UN personnel are in kashmir.

 

[Bull]

Your proposals are good if your indian.
I have had a few discussions with indians about kashmir and what would be the best way forward , nine out of 10 come out with your propsals...the status quo.
The right wing in pakistan have been saying from the start that the indians only want the status quo and the peace talks are meaningless.
The more i speak to indians the more i agree with the right wing..

See we dont have any hidden agendas.

My own conclusion is that after the peace talks fail the freedom struggle in kashmir will take a more bloody course.

You mean you will start bombing and killing Indians again.

The first thing is an infidia based on the palestinian model will be established in kashmir.The freedom fighters will take on the hezbollah model of warfare..

Hizbullah is surviving becoz they are also political party and not just a armed rebel group. They have a free run in southern Lebonon, you wont see any LA personals in southern Lebonon. The boundarties with Syria is transparent that helps in arms reaching them from far off areas such as Iran.

Kashmir case is totally different.The borders are better manned and we have good number of IA/Para Milit/Police in Kashmir.

In pakistan the army will make public that pakistan not only supports the kashmir struggle morally and diplomatically but also militarally..

You wont have the guts to say so. What will happen to the enlightened moderatism that Mushi is spreading? By helping them militarily basicaly means openly admitting you have terror training bases. US & NATO would be worried at this fact as most of these camps would be in Azad Kashmir far from there reach and they wont be sure if any taleban/AQ members are getting trained over there under the pretext of Kashmiri freedom struggle.

So US is going to shove it up if, you dare say you would support Kashmir cause militarly.

I would like a peacefull solution to kashmir but going by india's intent i think we should carry on fighting until one country is destroyed..

What do you think Pakistan was trying to do all these years? They realised the folly in it and embraced "moderatism" under Mushraff.

You must be kidding yourself if you think we are going to let the last 15 years go to waste.Do not forget it was only a couple of years ago everyone thought the taliban was finished ,last i heard they where taking over afghanistan again.Pakistan reactivated the taliban they can do the same in kashmir.

So are you saying that Pakistan is harbouring and arming the talebans against the Americans.

 

[Munir]

If India would give free and fair elections in Kashmir then we can talk... Bull, you time is running out.

 

[Contrarian]

If India would give free and fair elections in Kashmir then we can talk... Bull, you time is running out.

Your statement has ABSOLUTELY no factual standing. The last elections in Kashmir were completely free and fair. There were observers from all parts of the world present including UN. The govt had taken SO much care to ensure this. Every country praised India for conducting free and fair elections in a violence infested place like Kashmir. Even Pakistan could not comment that the elections were not free. There was also a record turnout of the people for voting in Kashmir, above the national average. This was in defiance of the terrorists who had called for a boycott of the elections.

The world praised India for the elections conducted. Barring a few countries, every country was open to send in observers to check the elections.

 

[dabong1]

See we dont have any hidden agendas..

What are you talking about hidden agenda's.It is a conclusion based on facts.

You mean you will start bombing and killing Indians again...

Well the freedom fighter would attack and kill members of the indian occuption army if thats what you mean.

Hizbullah is surviving becoz they are also political party and not just a armed rebel group. They have a free run in southern Lebonon, you wont see any LA personals in southern Lebonon. The boundarties with Syria is transparent that helps in arms reaching them from far off areas such as Iran.
Kashmir case is totally different.The borders are better manned and we have good number of IA/Para Milit/Police in Kashmir.....

Pakistan is going to combine the United Jihad Council and the all party hurriyat conference....a political party with a military wing.
Do not fool yourself and think that the IA/Para Milit/Police in Kashmir has stopped cross border movement.The pakistanis control when and who goes into kashmir from the pakistani side and under the current conditions the pakistanis are going to see if the indians play ball or not.

You wont have the guts to say so. What will happen to the enlightened moderatism that Mushi is spreading? By helping them militarily basicaly means openly admitting you have terror training bases. US & NATO would be worried at this fact as most of these camps would be in Azad Kashmir far from there reach and they wont be sure if any taleban/AQ members are getting trained over there under the pretext of Kashmiri freedom struggle.
So US is going to shove it up if, you dare say you would support Kashmir cause militarly......

Musharraf attended the Green Berets training school at Fort Bragg. Accounts indicate Musharraf's performance in these courses was above average. Some regarded him as a `natural' in the field of Psywar techniques.Pakistan is supporting the americans in afghanistan on the one hand and backing the taliban with the other.
Mushy is playing the indians infront of the world.Preparing the ground to show india as being inflexible on kashmir after all the offers pakistan has made.
After america withdraws from iraq and afganistan i am sure they will not have the stomach for another war.
What can the american do other then sanction us which they did before but no avail.

What do you think Pakistan was trying to do all these years? They realised the folly in it and embraced "moderatism" under Mushraff.

No mate you getting it wrong.The pakistani army is showing the pakistan people and the world that india does not want peace.
9/11 was a god send for the indian army in kashmir.The indian army was pinned down and had lost morale.
The pakistan side i can tell you are getting trained and ready for the peace talks to fail so they can carry the armed freedom struggle on.

So are you saying that Pakistan is harbouring and arming the talebans against the Americans.

I am not saying i am telling you.

 

[Adux]

http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache...ar+terrorist+bombings,+bbc&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=7

Yup they are doing a fine job of killing Indian civilians especially the kashmiri ones

 

[Contrarian]

What are you talking about hidden agenda's.It is a conclusion based on facts.

India has its own agenda's like Pakistan has its.

Well the freedom fighter would attack and kill members of the indian occuption army if thats what you mean.

The terrorist would kill many more civilians.

Pakistan is going to combine the United Jihad Council and the all party hurriyat conference....a political party with a military wing.
Do not fool yourself and think that the IA/Para Milit/Police in Kashmir has stopped cross border movement.The pakistanis control when and who goes into kashmir from the pakistani side and under the current conditions the pakistanis are going to see if the indians play ball or not.

Actually, Pakistan controll"ED" when and who went in Kashmir from the Pakistani border. Now the electric fense along with all the other hi tech gadetry from Israel have made surethat the number of border incursions has dropped down dramatically. That is why Pakistan was making such a huge fuss over the fense, even though it was in the Indian side. The fense has 3 levels and has become a death trap for militants. No part of the fense is left unwatched or unmanned at any time. Add to that, the Israeli hand held thermal imagers(which are ideal in that area, as mostly in Kashmir it is very cold) along with night vision devices, radars, cameras, etc, and u get a very non porous border.

That is the sole reason why infilteration has dropped so drastically in those areas ie fenced ones.

Musharraf attended the Green Berets training school at Fort Bragg. Accounts indicate Musharraf's performance in these courses was above average. Some regarded him as a `natural' in the field of Psywar techniques.Pakistan is supporting the americans in afghanistan on the one hand and backing the taliban with the other.

Yeah, but atleast Americans are there, which was not before. Atleast he has to publicly deny any support to the terrorists. US knows a lot more than you give her credit for. Musharraf has been 'divorced' with the terrorists now. He cannot support them like he used to. Its a huge improvement for us.

Mushy is playing the indians infront of the world.Preparing the ground to show india as being inflexible on kashmir after all the offers pakistan has made.

The world is not fooled so simply. The world knows that Pakistan is the root of global terrorism, and unless he stops that, he cannot play even his own countrymen, let alone the world.

After america withdraws from iraq and afganistan i am sure they will not have the stomach for another war.
What can the american do other then sanction us which they did before but no avail.

If America did want to goto war, it will not hesitate because of Iraq or whatever. Did you not hear a US General saying that Iran should not think that just because of the problems faced by US in Iraq it cannot attack Iran. He said that the only thing will be that US will use conventional methods in going to war, ie a lot less smart bombs, etc to minise civilian casulaties. The US would go to war the old fashioned way, and it would be worse for Iran.

BTW the Sanctions are also very effective.

No mate you getting it wrong.The pakistani army is showing the pakistan people and the world that india does not want peace.

PA cannot show the world anything. When the time comes, it will be isolated like it was in Kargil.

9/11 was a god send for the indian

It was a god send for India, it helped greatly in the crackdown of terrorists. Pakistan was/is forced to kill terrorists, etc. Pakistan cannot openly support terrorists as it used to. The world recognises terrorists now, unlike in the past when only India complained and no1 gave it a serious thought.

army in kashmir.The indian army was pinned down and had lost morale.

That is not true, dont give you speculation here. On the contrary apart from helping India, 9/11 has helped Pakistan tremendously, it was given money to Musharraf, without which the pakistani economy was faliling. It has given Pakistan some weapons because of which Pakistan is now jumping.

The pakistan side i can tell you are getting trained and ready for the peace talks to fail so they can carry the armed freedom struggle on.

The Indian army meanwhile has gotten more than enough force multipliers and military equipment to carry out a full scale assault. It has gotten a new doctrine in tune with today's world. India has made tremendous progress in its economy, which is giving much more money to the armed forces.

India has also drastically reduced its sensor to shooter loop which was disgraceful earlier. That is till some time back, India could never convert its numerical superiority into a decisive battlefield victory in a short time. The numbers were never helpful before in a short time. India always had assured victory in the long haul, but there was never any long haul, there were always short wars. But now, India has gotten enough tech and is going net centric so that the numbers can be converted to victory in a short time.

Also, India has now gotten access to technology which was always restricted to it. Pakistan always had better technology to match India's numbers. Now India has a better technology and in numbers.

I am not saying i am telling you.

As am I, that next time if there is war, India would have a decisive victory. It has enough clout now in the world, to with stand any international pressure, and an economy to boot to support the war .

 

[dabong1]

India has its own agenda's like Pakistan has its..

i agree

The terrorist would kill many more civilians...

And the freedom fighters will kill more of the india occupation army.

Actually, Pakistan controll"ED" when and who went in Kashmir from the Pakistani border. Now the electric fense along with all the other hi tech gadetry from Israel have made surethat the number of border incursions has dropped down dramatically. That is why Pakistan was making such a huge fuss over the fense, even though it was in the Indian side. The fense has 3 levels and has become a death trap for militants. No part of the fense is left unwatched or unmanned at any time. Add to that, the Israeli hand held thermal imagers(which are ideal in that area, as mostly in Kashmir it is very cold) along with night vision devices, radars, cameras, etc, and u get a very non porous border.
That is the sole reason why infilteration has dropped so drastically in those areas ie fenced ones....

Hopefully you can pass the info on to the indian govt next time they accuse pakistan of "cross border terrorism"

Yeah, but atleast Americans are there, which was not before. Atleast he has to publicly deny any support to the terrorists. US knows a lot more than you give her credit for. Musharraf has been 'divorced' with the terrorists now. He cannot support them like he used to. Its a huge improvement for us.....

Which group did Musharraf give the most credit and money to during the earthquake?......was it not Laskar e Taiba renamed Jama'at ud Dawa.
Tliban stronghold in quetta and what has america done...nothing.
Musharaff publicly deny any support to the freedom fight in kashmir or afghanistan but in reality retraining and rearmimg is taking place with the emphasis on new guerilla tactics and technolgy.

The world is not fooled so simply. The world knows that Pakistan is the root of global terrorism, and unless he stops that, he cannot play even his own countrymen, let alone the world.
If America did want to goto war, it will not hesitate because of Iraq or whatever. Did you not hear a US General saying that Iran should not think that just because of the problems faced by US in Iraq it cannot attack Iran. He said that the only thing will be that US will use conventional methods in going to war, ie a lot less smart bombs, etc to minise civilian casulaties. The US would go to war the old fashioned way, and it would be worse for Iran......

Iran and pakistan are not iraq which after 10 years of UN sanction was weakened.
The american can attack iran and pakistan with conventional methods and send both countries back 20 years.
Pakistan or iran can not defeat america outright but can damage american intrests worlwide.

BTW the Sanctions are also very effective.......

Yes UN sanctions are very effective if there is UN unity on the issue but my point was that american sanctions on pakistan have actually been a positive thing forcing pakistan to become self sufficent in the weapons arena

It was a god send for India, it helped greatly in the crackdown of terrorists. Pakistan was/is forced to kill terrorists, etc. Pakistan cannot openly support terrorists as it used to. The world recognises terrorists now, unlike in the past when only India complained and no1 gave it a serious thought.......

The only thing the world recognised after 9/11 was the human rights abuses carried out by the indian regime in kashmir.
Sorry to be the one to tell you but the world still does not give serious thought to indian claims about kashmir.
The training camps are still there in AKJ but a bit more discreet.

The Indian army meanwhile has gotten more than enough force multipliers and military equipment to carry out a full scale assault. It has gotten a new doctrine in tune with today's world. India has made tremendous progress in its economy, which is giving much more money to the armed forces.
India has also drastically reduced its sensor to shooter loop which was disgraceful earlier. That is till some time back, India could never convert its numerical superiority into a decisive battlefield victory in a short time. The numbers were never helpful before in a short time. India always had assured victory in the long haul, but there was never any long haul, there were always short wars. But now, India has gotten enough tech and is going net centric so that the numbers can be converted to victory in a short time.
Also, India has now gotten access to technology which was always restricted to it. Pakistan always had better technology to match India's numbers. Now India has a better technology and in numbers.......

One of the reasons india never defeats pakistan is the indian army assumption that it is going to be a long drawn out war.
The most important things in war is the willingness to die,the tactics and strategy involved and the weapons that you use.
The americans have the best weapons but where defeated in vietnam and getting slaughtered in iraq.
I agree that if that if a war between india and pakistan was a long war then pakistan would be defeated.But the pakistans are never going to let it become a long war.
The pakistans always neutralize indias threats.The latest thing pakistan is working on is the EMP device which could shut down all of indias communication and electronics.The chinese have just carried out a successful test of a killer satellite missile which i am sure they will share with pakistan.
As a supporter of pakistan i love it that india has increased its defence budget and has become more right wing as this in the long run weakens nations.

As am I, that next time if there is war, India would have a decisive victory. It has enough clout now in the world, to with stand any international pressure, and an economy to boot to support the war .

I think you did not read what i was asked.
I was asked if pakistan suppoted the taliban .