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$2.4bn Kohala hydropower deal finalised

Common man, seriously? I know your political focus is towards IK but don't put your personal bias into such a critical issue the entire country faces. There is a 5000 to 7500 MGW shortfall every year. That further increases due to distribution losses. But to say that there are not real crisis in power generation is a VERY false statement and its misleading readers to hell.
With 5000 to 7500 MGW gap means you product 65% of the needed electricity. The current government wants to take this number to 80% in the next 2 years, to 100% by the end of 2017 and go in surplus by 2019 and then go to 25000 MGW by the 2024.
That's a great goal to achieve. Your energy production will be doubled compared to what was being produced for the past 70 years!!! That's HUGE progress made in 5 years of the current government's tenure than what had been going on for the past 70 years. Have courtesy to support the good work and give credit where needed please.

Yes, seriously. Please do your homework first. The installed power generating capacity meets or exceeds the demand, but it cannot be utilized due to the two issues I have highlighted. The IPPs cannot run the plants because they are not paid in time or not at all for the power produced.

I repeat: the real crisis is not in power generation, it is in distributing it and then collecting the money owed for supplying it.
 
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But some member said that it will not be used for water storage. If you can store water, I can agree with you. If not, it should be seen power plant angle and L1 option should be choose.




It is great. I exactly advocate the same.

Importing electricity is short term, while dams are long term projects which serve nations for 100 years or more. Dasu 4360MW dam is also run of river dam. Bhasha dam 4500mw will store water. While imported electricity tariff will keep increasing, Kohala dam 1100MW tariff will come down to 5 cent after 12 years and under 2 cent after 30 years.
 
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Good point.

I wonder if our anarchist-socialist elite will allow NS to complete even one term.

I doubt it considering the Model Town massacre and the Rise of Gullu Butt, these sort of things will come to haunt the Government as long as they're in office.

What's worse is that the Pakistani military has been out of office for the past 6-years, hungry, desperate and I'm sure they're preparing to pounce on the treasury within the next 3-years.
 
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Yes, seriously. Please do your homework first. The installed power generating capacity meets or exceeds the demand, but it cannot be utilized due to the two issues I have highlighted. The IPPs cannot run the plants because they are not paid in time or not at all for the power produced.

I repeat: the real crisis is not in power generation, it is in distributing it and then collecting the money owed for supplying it.

Running inefficient (old & technologically obsolete) plants is not a good choice. These plants should have been scrapped many years ago. I can not think that these plants should be considered as functioning plants anymore. There are distribution bottlenecks, yes. There are problems with collecting dues also. But the real issue, which causes the deficit of power generation is the high cost of production by the plants that government does not wish to run. Their generation capacity should not be accounted anymore.
 
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Running inefficient (old & technologically obsolete) plants is not a good choice. These plants should have been scrapped many years ago. I can not think that these plants should be considered as functioning plants anymore. There are distribution bottlenecks, yes. There are problems with collecting dues also. But the real issue, which causes the deficit of power generation is the high cost of production by the plants that government does not wish to run. Their generation capacity should not be accounted anymore.

Please keep in mind that the real amortized costs of any new and more efficient generating capacity, be it hydel or anything else, will still be too high for most of Pakistan to afford, unless the basic slabs are subsidized heavily, a practice that the WB/IMF frown upon. The issues of an obsolete power distribution network, and the theft and mismanagement, including timely payment of bills, is the bigger problem compared to adding more efficient generating capacity. Further, given the rates of increase in power demand, loadshedding will remain an intractable problem for the next several decades, at least.
 
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Please keep in mind that the real amortized costs of any new and more efficient generating capacity, be it hydel or anything else, will still be too high for most of Pakistan to afford, unless the basic slabs are subsidized heavily, a practice that the WB/IMF frown upon. The issues of an obsolete power distribution network, and the theft and mismanagement, including timely payment of bills, is the bigger problem compared to adding more efficient generating capacity. Further, given the rates of increase in power demand, loadshedding will remain an intractable problem for the next several decades, at least.

The last time I looked at the issue in detail, I had confirmed that the addition in circular debt was because of high cost of production which was the #1 cause. Distribution problems / theft of electricity was #2 reason. Therefore the cheaper production of electricity should be the first priority, and tackling line losses should be a close second.
 
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The last time I looked at the issue in detail, I had confirmed that the addition in circular debt was because of high cost of production which was the #1 cause. Distribution problems / theft of electricity was #2 reason. Therefore the cheaper production of electricity should be the first priority, and tackling line losses should be a close second.

The cost of adding new capacity is still quite high, relative to the buying power of the people who need it. How does one resolve this issue? The same basic imbalance remains, no matter how you run the numbers.
 
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I repeat: the real crisis is not in power generation, it is in distributing it and then collecting the money owed for supplying it.

Let's do simple maths, I agree with you that the money collection and the distribution is an issue. But its a much smaller issue and these two are separate in nature....ENTIRELY. I know this situation in and out, I don't open my mouth about stuff that I don't have an entire command over. One of the largest Engineering and Infrastructure firms in Pakistan takes advise from people like myself so instead of playing stubborn, sometimes you have to listen also.

Here's what I want you to tell me, as of last year, the DEMAND of electricity was around 17,500 MGW. The production (even AFTER ALL IPP's got paid) was 11,500+ MGW Peak. So by "enhancing the money collection and distribution".....how do you over come the 6000 MGW gap? Will collecting money on time will SOMEHOW run the plans more than 24 hours a day? The plants can NOT produce jack over 12K max......what's never there, can NOT be produced by more money, oil or "distribution". These are issues but separate from the power production.
Now what happens is (to address your issue), when IPP's don't have the money given on time, they can't pay their people and buy Thermal fuel and due to that, the production FURTHER reduces from peak output (Thermal super expensive, thanks to leaders from Zia onwards, and specifically Musharraf to allow more of this knowing this was the utmost expensive option for a poor country).

In the next five years as you hit the economic boom with the Silk Road, Gawader, the educational, medical, infrastructure and textile foot print expanding, you'll need about 5000 MGW more. That now takes your needs from current (17,500 MGW) to roughly 22,500 MGW. So there are all these projects in place to be able to produce about 25,000 by 2022.

The power outages will be reduced to 10% of what it is right now in the next 36 months gradually as many of these projects will start to come online. By 2018, power outages will be history and by 2022, you'll be surplus. ALL this....if the current democratic system continues to work and many of you don't want the country and its poor people to progress. That's why the silly and violent protests!

The last time I looked at the issue in detail, I had confirmed that the addition in circular debt was because of high cost of production which was the #1 cause. Distribution problems / theft of electricity was #2 reason. Therefore the cheaper production of electricity should be the first priority, and tackling line losses should be a close second.

There are two issues:
1) To produce enough electricity per the demand (which is why you have these projects in place).
2) Until these projects come online (Hydro and Nuclear and all, cheaper options), reduce line losses to maximize payments so the current gap doesn't expand due to non payment and distribution.
3) Once new project cut down the power outages down to 10% of what it is right now (by 2018), then each new Hydro, Solar and Nuclear energy project coming online, will need to shut down an existing IPP based system so the cheaper alternative can be used. The shut down plant will then go through conversion from Thermal to Coal and then they'll come online, adding surplus by 2022.
The government has laid out a very well thought out strategy. They just need to continue to work and finish these projects without interruption. By the end of next year, you'll start to see a big reduction in the power outages as some of these projects will start to come online by the end of next year. By the end of 2016, you'll have an average of 1-2 hours of power outage across the entire country, and by 2018, you'll make the power outages a part of the history. By 2022.....you'll be in surplus with majority of your electric system running on Hydro, Nuclear and some Solar. This stuff should've happened in like 1980's.
 
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Here's what I want you to tell me, as of last year, the DEMAND of electricity was around 17,500 MGW. The production (even AFTER ALL IPP's got paid) was 11,500+ MGW Peak. So by "enhancing the money collection and distribution".....how do you over come the 6000 MGW gap?

You give the demand and the production figures. What is the actual INSTALLED capacity for last year, Sir?
 
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8.9 tariff is quite expensive in my opinion Govt should have negotiated on much lower price.
 
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At the end of the day we will still have no extra electricity in the system for the lines are not capable of withstanding (and will not be in foreseeable future) the extra load. There will already be extra (than what is currently needed) electricity if all the generation units work to even 50% of their capacity but they just cant for the reason given above.
 
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You give the demand and the production figures. What is the actual INSTALLED capacity for last year, Sir?

Around 12K MGW, I mentioned that in my previous post :)

8.9 tariff is quite expensive in my opinion Govt should have negotiated on much lower price.

Where did you get this number? Link plz? (not to ARY though). Also, short term tariffs and long term tariffs are two VERY different things......
 
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Around 12K MGW, I mentioned that in my previous post :)



Where did you get this number? Link plz? (not to ARY though). Also, short term tariffs and long term tariffs are two VERY different things......

For first 12 years its 8.9 cent, after that 5.1 cent for 18 years.
 
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Where did you get this number? Link plz? (not to ARY though). Also, short term tariffs and long term tariffs are two VERY different things......[/quote]

Sorry, it is 7.9 but still look quite expensive
 
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At the end of the day we will still have no extra electricity in the system for the lines are not capable of withstanding (and will not be in foreseeable future) the extra load. There will already be extra (than what is currently needed) electricity if all the generation units work to even 50% of their capacity but they just cant for the reason given above.

In worst case scenario Pakistan will stop using oil and replace it with cheaper options.
 
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