What's new

Afghanistan national army CAPITULIATION. US withdrawl

Winning Hearts and Minds the Afghan way; not starting any new blood feuds.

I could envision Turkey and Pakistan doing a political settlement where Taliban can have whatever of land it holds plus extra and the Gov't takes the remaining.. 2 ways partition could be an ideal solution.. Giving Taliban the Pathan, Herat, and turkic areas where as Kabul and the north states under Gov't control
 
I could envision Turkey and Pakistan doing a political settlement where Taliban can have whatever of land it holds plus extra and the Gov't takes the remaining.. 2 ways partition could be an ideal solution.. Giving Taliban the Pathan, Herat, and turkic areas where as Kabul and the north states under Gov't control
Loool. Taliban have just defeated the combined aies of the world.
The Northern alliance goons are surrendering enmass and you think they will give in to the Indian traitors in kabul? Not a chance in hell
 
Loool. Taliban have just defeated the combined aies of the world.
The Northern alliance goons are surrendering enmass and you think they will give in to the Indian traitors in kabul? Not a chance in hell

uprooting them is pointless. There will be a pro-pak gov't instead that controls a small piece of land
 
I could envision Turkey and Pakistan doing a political settlement where Taliban can have whatever of land it holds plus extra and the Gov't takes the remaining.. 2 ways partition could be an ideal solution.. Giving Taliban the Pathan, Herat, and turkic areas where as Kabul and the north states under Gov't control

In an earlier thread the idea of partition was raised. They won’t accept it, especially after they once controlled it. They maybe denied it on the battlefield, but they will keep fighting to unify their country. They see the whole of Afghanistan as their country.

“the government” is not viewed as legitimate in its current form. The areas you mentioned in their control don’t include Kabul so they won’t accept it. If you look at what they held in early 2001, IMHO, they may accept but only because the rest they could not unify with the areas they controlled.
 

300 #Kabul regime soldiers surrendered to #Taliban in Shirin Taghab district of #Faryab. #Afghanistan

driving around in HMMVes taken from ANA



yes

this is what happens when you have the indians train an army of monkeys
I would disagree. This is-what happens-when an external-force occupies a nation without understanding the underlying culture. This has happened before as-well following the withdrawal of the Soviets. The US has stood up a parallel government without realizing the nature of this nation.
200 years of tribal fighting, consequent hardships and turf wars have taught the Afghans patience and resilience in the face of adversity. They have learnt to harmonize-with their terrain and learnt to use it to their advantage. If you remember the Taliban attack on Northern alliance wh8ch turned horr8bly wrong you will realize that the Taliban were f8ghting a-war they were not equipped to fight.
The typical Afghan Modus opperandi is to melt into their environment hide the core of their leadership and become civilians-when they are over powered. They then resort to Gorilla attacks melting into the crowd so the attacking forces have no idea on whom to attack. If they commit mass murder they create more enemies as the tendency to take revenge creates more Taliban.
Because of this and their strong tribal leaning no one will turn informant on his brother and even if they do they are justifiably eliminated.
INTO THIS FRAY HAS ENTERED A GROUP WHICH CALLS PEOPLE TO WAGE JEHAD ON THE LINES CONDUCTED BY THE SALAF. There is a bit of uneducated valour but the two combinations are lethal as the fear for one's life is eliminated.
The ANA is nothing more than ancextension of this-same-setup. It realizes it will not last Long Without the US support and wipl be mowed down and killed. The Taliban offer peace and restoration of their office and hope for livelihood once the US is gone so it is better to join them.
This-would-have happened in any society where the general fabric of the nation leans towards an ideology. It happened in-Iran in the late 70s and so it-will happen in Afghanistan.
Personally I-see it as restoration of the-old-system. The reason 2hycthe-Afghans will gather round this ideology is because it-form the only-way-where they cqn unite as a nation forgetting the in fighting amongst the tribes. This is-something Pakistan will need to look forward to as I think we still rema8n a nation without any guidance and-sense of-direction.
A
The ANA
 
In an earlier thread the idea of partition was raised. They won’t accept it, especially after they once controlled it. They maybe denied it on the battlefield, but they will keep fighting to unify their country. They see the whole of Afghanistan as their country.

“the government” is not viewed as legitimate in its current form. The areas you mentioned in their control don’t include Kabul so they won’t accept it. If you look at what they held in early 2001, IMHO, they may accept but only because the rest they could not unify with the areas they controlled.

With Islamic system being introduced they could unify without struggles
 
//India has over the years supplied military hardware, including four Mi-25 armed helicopters, to Afghanistan as well as trained thousands of its military personnel in counter-terrorism operations, military field-craft, intelligence-gathering and information technology, among other fields//
 
Not even slightly surprising, we've always said that ANA + Kabul government is just a modern version the DRA army + Najibullah. They get mauled and overwhelmed in no time, mass desertions in their army were common.
 
Not even slightly surprising, we've always said that ANA + Kabul government is just a modern version the DRA army + Najibullah. They get mauled and overwhelmed in no time, mass desertions in their army were common.

Why fight against someone whos motivated and patient as taliban on low wages and the wages won't even change that
 
With Islamic system being introduced they could unify without struggles

IMHO, It’s not the implementation of an Islamic system that is the main issue, although that is a major issue, and a decisive reason for the failure of the Kabul regime from winning over many people all over Afghanistan.

especially how this conflict was initially framed; In religious language, which wasn’t helpful. As a New Yorker that saw the 9/11 attacks, you can bet we wanted justice for the thousands we saw die. And to see bush use such rhetoric was so counterproductive to getting justice for those we had lost.

From 0:15-0:25

there are layers of issues.

one issue is income and influence: In Afghanistan you have two large groups, irrespective of their tribal or ethnic affiliations; farmers and skilled workers. The rural areas have mostly farmers (skilled workers go to cities or abroad to earn) that want to get the most money for their crops and in the cities there are mostly Skilled and unskilled workers that want the most pay for their labor. the farmers are even to this day being underpaid for their crop for the benefit of the cities; 7 kg of high quality apples get the equivalent of a $1.30 are are sold abroad. While 7kg of imported apples are sold in Kabul a few months later at the equivalent of $3. Add on top of this the taxes imposed by the Kabul government keep going up for no increase in benefit.

Farmer elites wouldn’t want their power and income usurped by city elites. There has been a 300 year civil war over this from what little I know of the conflict. This is the struggle everywhere in the world, but without a system that respects the landed class, they won’t give up some power for development. The Taliban work through these farmer elites; tribal chiefs.

the next issue is tribal: which would require a whole thesis to breakdown, plus my knowledge is limited on the subject.

next issue is sectarian: the anti-Shia is mixed in with the anti-hazara sentiments. This can only be solved with a live and let live policy. For good relations with the Hazara areas, Herat, and the country of Iran a live and let live policy is a must. Some hazara representation in the government will also be a must.

there is also the issue of language: Pashto vs. Dari (Afghan Persian); perhaps a bilingual government in areas with mixed populations, but by an large, whatever the vast majority of the public speak will be the de facto language of an effective government in that area. similar to Quebec in Canada.

this goes to the final issue of ethnic power sharing. Turkmen, Uzbeks, and even Hazaras could be convinced to unify with the Pashtuns. But the largest hold out group will be the non-Turkic Tajiks. Which is why China’s pressure on them this time is crucial (as opposed to China’s limited influence in the 90’s) to get them to the bargaining table (China shares a border with Tajikistan and sort of the Tajik part of Afghanistan) so it is in their national interest for a peaceful border, and to eliminate any potential place that can be used to send in destabilizing influences into Xinjiang or Tibet. Also this is the reason for the renewed push, IMHO, for Pakistan to meet with Tajik and Russian leaders (The Russians are the military force behind Tajikistan). This is also why Turkish influence with the Uzbeks and Turkmen is crucial.
 
Last edited:
IMHO, It’s not the implementation of an Islamic system that is the main issue, although that is a major issue, and a decisive reason for the failure of the Kabul regime from winning over many people all over Afghanistan.

especially how this conflict was initially framed; In religious language, which wasn’t helpful.

From 0:15-0:25

there are layers of issues.

one issue is income and influence: In Afghanistan you have two large groups, irrespective of their tribal or ethnic affiliations; farmers and skilled workers. The rural areas have mostly farmers (skilled workers go to cities or abroad to earn) that want to get the most money for their crops and in the cities there are mostly Skilled and unskilled workers that want the most pay for their labor. the farmers are even to this day being underpaid for their crop for the benefit of the cities; 7 kg of high quality apples get the equivalent of a $1.30 are are sold abroad. While 7kg of imported apples are sold in Kabul a few months later at the equivalent of $3.

Farmer elites wouldn’t want their power and income usurped by city elites. There has been a 300 year civil war over this from what little I know of the conflict. This is the struggle everywhere in the world, but without a system that respects the landed class, they won’t give up some power for development. The Taliban work through these farmer elites; tribal chiefs.

the next issue is tribal: which would require a whole thesis to breakdown, plus my knowledge is limited on the subject.

next issue is sectarian: the anti-Shia is mixed in with the anti-hazara sentiments. This can only be solved with a live and let live policy. For good relations with the Hazara areas, Herat, and the country of Iran a live and let live policy is a must. Some hazara representation in the government will also be a must.

the is the issue of language: Pashto vs. Dari (Afghan Persian)

this goes to the final issue of ethnic power sharing. Turkmen, Uzbeks, and even Hazaras could be convinced to unify with the Pashtuns. But the largest hold out group will be the non-Turkic Tajiks. Which is why China’s pressure on them this time is crucial (as opposed to China’s limited influence in the 90’s) to get them to the bargaining table (China shares a border with Tajikistan and sort of the Tajik part of Afghanistan) so it is in their national interest for a peaceful border, and to eliminate any potential place that can be used to send in destabilizing influences into Xinjiang or Tibet. Also this is the reason for the renewed push, IMHO, for Pakistan to meet with Tajik and Russian leaders (The Russians are the military force behind Tajikistan). This is also why Turkish influence with the Uzbeks and Turkmen is crucial.

I don't understand why some people are going with this fantasy of China name dropping. Whoever takes the land will take his land.. I couldn't see what concern that has for China. There is no interest in China whatsoever but it is mainly about Afghanistan. China has an understanding with Pakistan whos at the helm here and whatever Pakistan wants happens here
 
I don't understand why some people are going with this fantasy of China name dropping. Whoever takes the land will take his land.. I couldn't see what concern that has for China. There is no interest in China whatsoever but it is mainly about Afghanistan. China has an understanding with Pakistan whos at the helm here and whatever Pakistan wants happens here

China doesn’t care who controls the land, for the most part, it’s about doing business once the dust settles. China is working with Pakistan but also has their own interests vis a vi the Central Asia republics and Russia. In short, China wants to expand its influence to have more buffer space and room to grow its economy. If they can influence the northern co-ethnics in the central Asian republics, they may be better placed to work through them on projects in areas of Afghanistan with similar ethnicities. China has interests in Afghanistan that even working with Pakistan may not be able to accomplish, so they have to build up as many avenues to those interests as possible. Mining projects would be the number one goal but also securing the area from being used by western powers to launch stealth spy drone into China; such as from Northern alliance territory.

from 10:55-11:20
From 8:37-8:57
 
Last edited:
China doesn’t care who controls the land, for the most part, it’s about doing business once the dust settles. China is working with Pakistan but also has their own interests vis a vi the Central Asia republics and Russia. In short, China wants to expand its influence to have more buffer space and room to grow its economy. If they can influence the northern co-ethnics in the central Asian republics, they may be better placed to work through them on projects in areas of Afghanistan with similar ethnicities. Mining projects would be the number one goal.

I kinda misunderstood that in that beginning and I am also pretty sure anyone who wins wants to tap into that Chinese market
 
I kinda misunderstood that in that beginning and I am also pretty sure anyone who wins wants to tap into that Chinese market

The Chinese market current at 100 Trillion yuan or approx. $15.5 Trillion USD is a huge market for raw materials at the very least. Improvement to agriculture can lead to over production and see high quality organic Afghan apples fetch top dollar or top yuan ;) in the Chinese market for example; Xinjiang already produces a lot of the produce for China so exports from Central Asia would be an extension of that effort; a couple days more by rail to markets in eastern China. Chinese food demand is increasing so high quality organic farming can become a healthy sector of Central Asia’s economy. If high end organic tomato’s from Israel can be shipped all the way to America, why can’t high end organic produce from Central Asia be sold in Eastern China. (Perhaps some bio engineering will be needed to pick organic varieties that can stand the journey and not rot in transit)

Also, the more Chinese money in Afghanistan the less Indian money. Just like the $400 billion deal between China and Iran blunted indian efforts in Iran, the same should be done in Afghanistan and Central Asia. This time to not only blunt Indian influence but to some extent Russian Influence (which can be a backdoor for the Indians).
 
Last edited:
Why fight against someone whos motivated and patient as taliban on low wages and the wages won't even change that

No choice but to save face, sunk costs, sunk political capital etc. The US after 9/11 was warned again and again not to start wider wars and destabilise entire regions, they did it anyway. Al Qaeda and not the Taliban attacked them, but that did not stop them from overthrowing the Taliban government, and then get the other side of the Afghan civil war (then known as the Northern Alliance, now known as the Afghan gov't) to power, this included giving the Northern Alliance the reigns to power in places where they were hated and had no business ruling.

So what the US inadvertently did is intervene, set up an artificial political system, with artificial power dynamics, pick one side of an on-going civil war that predated 9/11, and then fail at repeated opportunities to bring disaffected and taliban-like elements to the political process, several attempts were missed to treat the taliban as a reality and to build consensus (Bonn Agreement, Loya Jirga, Afghan elections)...

And what happens when you don't give people political space in which to operate legitimately? They won't just go away, they'll fight you as insurgents on their own terms.

Basically the US tried to relegate them to terrorists and treat them only as an armed militancy/nuisance, they completely missed their political importance, and they underestimated both their military resilience and they were completely blind to their presence elsewhere.

This delusion continued for some 15 years before engaging politically with the Taliban began being seen as an option in Washington. We went from an absurd "we do not negotiate with terrorists", to "'let's negotiate with the Taliban and get out asap".
 
Back
Top Bottom