Yes China putting in the RnD themselves will be cheaper than trying to buy the end result to leap frog.
Why I say this is there are many feeder branches involved in this RnD that have multiplier effects for high material technology in general....that you will not get access to if you just forego and buy/steal/whatever.
China can definitely set up JV for full production of a western engine from scratch, producing the 90%, importing the 10%...assembling 100% etc.. and I actually know something of what PW and China have discussed regarding this (but I cant delve into that unfortunately).
Such a facility however has high capital investment, its already established (along with supply chains) in the western countries and the labour cost component is actually quite small overall in jet engine manufacturing (given the training and skill premium per worker). This is after all why Rolls Royce set up a facility in Singapore of all places some years back (who have pretty crazy high labour costs).
There may be movement in China regarding this down the road to get one big ticket engine maker, but their labour/input cost advantage will not have much play on it. Rather it will be to augment a worldwide supply chain with a new factory instead of expansion of an existing one. Cost will be relatively the same....it may have been a good significant differential for this sector in the 90s and early 2000s maybe....but then the growth story for China was still relatively new and somewhat riskier/unproven/open-ended etc.
I know PW and its engines' line of products very well, along with GE's F-series engines. Where the Chinese were running into issues is pure metallurgy (like many other countries who started such initiative). They, and the majority of the world doesn't exactly understand how to refine Titanium to make engine blades that don't lose structural integrity quickly. The Russian's produced the first hi by-pass engine in the shape of RD-93 and they used other metals in blades (composite metals, not to be confused with composites used on a jets' air-frame). RD-93 was originally based on the F-4 engine tech back from the 60's. So even the Russians were behind as the RD-93 was built in the 90's. But at the least, they found a solution that worked, albeit high maintenance.
I agree with your stance on the fact that no Western company would give them the tech, but I was referring to JV where the Chinese labor is used in producing licensed commercial engines and they setup their industry that way. The Chinese aviation would need over 1000 aircraft (various sized) over the next 10-15 years, so I can't imagine any commercial aircraft manufacturer saying "NO" to a 200 aircraft order over 10-15 years even. Remember Moore's law, in 10-15 years, this commercial tech would still mean the Chinese would be like 2 gen behind whatever would be "hot engine tech" at that time.
I'd imagine that would still take years if it started tomorrow. So I'd conclude the Chinese will follow the Russian technology like the post above suggests, and they would take their time in resolving the durability issue with their engines. Thanks
News.ifeng.com posted a report on June 22 on Professor Chen Guang’s success in developing an aircraft engine material much better than US best alloy for aircraft engine.
It seems that the new alloy will allow an engine built with it to operate at 150-200 degrees celsius higher temperature.
Chen has achieved the success through long-term research with the funding from Nanjing Polytechnic University and the state’s Program 973.
Prof. Chen’s achievement, Polysynthetic twinned TiAl (PST TiAl) single crystals for high-temperature applications, was published on the Internet at
Natural Materials on June 20.
General Electric development of the Titanium alloy Ti-48Al-2Cr-2Nb (Alloy 4822) as a critical technology for the GEnx engine used in the Boeing 787.
Alloy 4822 was hailed as a sensational success in the development of aircraft engine materials as it reduces the weight of an aircraft engine by 200 pounds, fuel consumption by 20% and discharge of NOx by 80% and significantly lowered engine noise.
At room temperature, PST TiAl has high tensile ductility of 6.9%, yield strength of 708 MPa and tensile strength of 978 MPa, a wonderful combination of ductility and strength.
On the cover: Polysynthetic twinned TiAl single crystals for high-temperature applications,
https://t.co/c1rJ72pPnG pic.twitter.com/rEyLcGJBnG
— Nature Materials (@NatureMaterials)
July 26, 2016
What is more important for aircraft engine alloy, at the high temperature of 900℃ its yield and tensile strength is still as high as 637MPa and it has wonderful creep resistance. Its minimum creep rate and lasting life are
better than Alloy 4822 by one to two magnitudes.
It is hopeful that the allow may be used above 900℃ much higher that the 650~750℃ for Alloy 4822.
Polysynthetic twinned TiAl single crystals for high-temperature applications
https://t.co/iXRMkxBB88 pic.twitter.com/tNknZH3dkX
— Nature Materials (@NatureMaterials)
June 21, 2016
