third eye
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Add to this the Nuclear deal for India.. also on 6th Sept 2008.
Zardari to be next president
- Thread starter Neo
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Add to this the Nuclear deal for India.. also on 6th Sept 2008.
dr.umer
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He has mentioned attacks on Pakistan. This deal doesn't fit the defination of attack on Pakistan.
Most likely an IMF bailout under the amazing leadership of Zardari and that useless, waste of space Gilani..
..see this:Pakistan could be next big IMF customer
* Citigroup calls weak rupee ‘a legacy of flawed economic policies’
* Sees risk of debt default next year
Daily Times Monitor
LAHORE: A recent report by Citigroup suggests Pakistan as the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) next big customer, according to a Newsweek report.
According to the magazine, the IMF had seemed on track to permanent downsizing earlier this year, because emerging-market growth had left it without a client base of economically poor nations. However, that might soon change.
Default: The magazine quoted a recent report by Citigroup saying Pakistan could be the IMF’s next big customer. According to the magazine, “the bank sees a big risk of sovereign-debt default next year thanks to a weak rupee (a legacy of flawed economic policies) and higher energy prices”.
“The balance-of-payment situation in energy-dependent countries like Pakistan has deteriorated,” Newsweek quoted Citi economist Mushtaq Khan as saying. “Oil has softened, but even if prices stay where they are, Pakistan will run a large deficit,” Khan said.
According to the magazine, Khan noted that Pakistan needed IMF advice more than money. It said proposed loans from Saudi Arabia could stabilise the currency, but other investors “would not bite until they see a plan for structural reform”.
Earlier, an IMF staff assessment of Pakistan’s macroeconomic situation had called it fragile and vulnerable to a crisis.
According to the IMF experts responsible for the assessment, the external current account deficit for 2008-09 will be $14 billion or 7.7 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). With capital inflows of about $7 billion, the IMF estimated the external financing gap to be around $7 billion.
Real GDP growth is expected to slow further to about 4.5 to 5 percent in 2008-09, while average inflation is projected to increase to 16-17 percent owing in part to the expected pass-through of higher international food and energy prices.
The IMF also recommended that a stronger effort is necessary to broaden the tax base by eliminating some tax exemptions. Interest rates should be allowed to rise as needed in order to lower inflation and ensure that the domestic financing of the deficit is covered entirely by commercial banks and non-bank sources.
The IMF noted that Pakistan has requested an oil facility from Saudi Arabia to defer the payment of oil imports of 110,000 barrels per day, which at current oil prices would amount to $5 billion annually. The terms and conditions of the deferment were on hold till the presidential election.
Daily Times - Monday, September 08, 2008
Thu Sep 18, 2008
LONDON (AFP) - Pakistan's new president, Ali Asif Zardari, must make fighting Islamist militancy in the border regions with Afghanistan his top priority, a leading thinktank said Thursday.
But he faces a tough job to gain the trust of the army, which could ultimately threaten his government, said the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in its annual review of global geopolitical security.
"Zardari's top priority is to fight terrorism and Islamist militancy in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan," said John Chipman, head of the prestigious London thinktank, launching the Strategic Survey 2008 report.
"But the Pakistani army remains unable or unwilling to counter effectively the resurgent Taliban with over 110,000 troops deployed in the area."
US and Afghan officials say Pakistan's tribal areas are a safe haven for Al-Qaeda and Taliban rebels who took sanctuary there after the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in late 2001.
But Islamabad has vowed to defend itself against violations of its air space and incursions by US forces from Afghanistan, straining the relationship between the "war on terror" allies.
"Zardari's major challenge will be to gain the trust of the army and build a consensus against terrorism and Islamist extremism among the political establishment," Chipman told reporters.
"To pursue the campaign on terror, he will need to balance the conflicting interests of growing US pressure for military strikes in the tribal areas with the Pakistani army's decreasing tolerance for such attacks."
He added: "In order to reduce public opposition to such a policy, he needs to build bridges with the major opposition political parties.
"Most importantly, president Zardari will need to ensure that the ensuing domestic political turbulence, heightened by the growing economic crisis, does not place his own government at risk from the army."
Zardari, the widower of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, was sworn in as president last week.
On Wednesday, at least five people were killed when four missiles fired by suspected US drones struck a compound in a northwestern Pakistani tribal area near the Afghan border, according to officials in nearby Peshawar.
LONDON (AFP) - Pakistan's new president, Ali Asif Zardari, must make fighting Islamist militancy in the border regions with Afghanistan his top priority, a leading thinktank said Thursday.
But he faces a tough job to gain the trust of the army, which could ultimately threaten his government, said the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in its annual review of global geopolitical security.
"Zardari's top priority is to fight terrorism and Islamist militancy in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan," said John Chipman, head of the prestigious London thinktank, launching the Strategic Survey 2008 report.
"But the Pakistani army remains unable or unwilling to counter effectively the resurgent Taliban with over 110,000 troops deployed in the area."
US and Afghan officials say Pakistan's tribal areas are a safe haven for Al-Qaeda and Taliban rebels who took sanctuary there after the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in late 2001.
But Islamabad has vowed to defend itself against violations of its air space and incursions by US forces from Afghanistan, straining the relationship between the "war on terror" allies.
"Zardari's major challenge will be to gain the trust of the army and build a consensus against terrorism and Islamist extremism among the political establishment," Chipman told reporters.
"To pursue the campaign on terror, he will need to balance the conflicting interests of growing US pressure for military strikes in the tribal areas with the Pakistani army's decreasing tolerance for such attacks."
He added: "In order to reduce public opposition to such a policy, he needs to build bridges with the major opposition political parties.
"Most importantly, president Zardari will need to ensure that the ensuing domestic political turbulence, heightened by the growing economic crisis, does not place his own government at risk from the army."
Zardari, the widower of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, was sworn in as president last week.
On Wednesday, at least five people were killed when four missiles fired by suspected US drones struck a compound in a northwestern Pakistani tribal area near the Afghan border, according to officials in nearby Peshawar.
muse
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An editorial in today's Daily Times seems to suggest my post of yesterday (see above) is not without merit:
Editorial: The PPP and the Army
The ruling PPP and the Pakistan Army seem to be in sync even as the Americans seem to be speaking with many tongues over policy in the war against terrorism. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has fully backed COAS General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani on his handling of the two challenges facing Pakistan: the insurgency in Bajaur and Swat, and the American incursions into Pakistani territory from Afghanistan. The media also backs the civil-military consensus, and government representatives are very clear about national policy.
Reports have appeared about American officials in Washington telling our ambassador Husain Haqqani that there will be no repeat of the Angur Adda incident when American commandos landed on Pakistani soil and attacked a safe house of a Taliban leader without informing the Pakistan Army. The State Department has now released a statement on the subject by Deputy Secretary of State, John Negroponte: Unilateral actions are probably not a durable or a viable solution over a prolonged period of time and I think the best way forward for both of our countries is to try to deal with the situation in that border area on a co-operative basis co-operative both between the United States and Pakistan, but also with the country of Afghanistan. So I would say trilateral cooperation, if you will, is probably the best way forward.
This should have been good enough to put all worries of a split between the Pakistani government and the Army to bed. But to drive the point home, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, more cautious about interpreting American signals that it would not attack without consultation, said Thursday that there were still no formal guarantees from the US about not attacking.
Unfortunately, the atmosphere in Pakistan is that of splits. The big falling away is between the PPP and the PMLN. In the past, the Pakistan Army was made the third party that decides who wins. So it is doubly unfortunate that Londons International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) may have inadvertently fuelled the fires of antagonism with its latest annual report that says, Zardaris major challenge will be to gain the trust of the army and build a consensus among the political establishment against terrorism and extremism. Already the opposition politicians are carefully wording their criticism so as to show the PPP ploughing a separate furrow from the Army and the PMLNs leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, is gradually zeroing in on the subject. He said Thursday: The US media is reporting that some agreements between the US and the Musharraf-led government had allowed incursions into the Tribal Areas. We hope that Asif Ali Zardari would give a clear policy to cope with the situation at our borders. We demand that being the powerful civilian president, he should announce that he is scrapping such agreements. Knowing that he was drawing close to the Army line, he added: The statement of [US military chief] Michael Mullen that US drones would continue to launch aerial strikes is not acceptable to us. We will neither accept an airstrike nor a ground offensive inside our territory.
If this was not enough politics-as-usual, Brigadier (Retd) Shaukat Qadir writing in The Friday Times (September 12-18, 2008) says: When COAS Gen Kayani recently met Adm Mullen, it seemed as if Mullen understood Pakistans position and agreed not to permit strikes across the Durand Line. However, there is a fairly reliable rumour afloat that newly elected President Zardari has given carte blanche to the Bush administration to attack Pakistani territory at will.
The truth is that the Army and the PPP government are standing together on the policy on US incursions. It is unfortunate that those who fear that a split might occur or who want the split to occur to create space for their favourite political elements to take over have jumped in to make things look uncertain. A split between the Army and the PPP will not strengthen anyone in opposition. Nor will it strengthen the Army or the PPP. And if the split actually happens, or the rumours about it actually bring it about, the country will lose its ability to stand up to the current challenges. For the splitters it will be a Pyrrhic victory.
Editorial: The PPP and the Army
The ruling PPP and the Pakistan Army seem to be in sync even as the Americans seem to be speaking with many tongues over policy in the war against terrorism. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has fully backed COAS General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani on his handling of the two challenges facing Pakistan: the insurgency in Bajaur and Swat, and the American incursions into Pakistani territory from Afghanistan. The media also backs the civil-military consensus, and government representatives are very clear about national policy.
Reports have appeared about American officials in Washington telling our ambassador Husain Haqqani that there will be no repeat of the Angur Adda incident when American commandos landed on Pakistani soil and attacked a safe house of a Taliban leader without informing the Pakistan Army. The State Department has now released a statement on the subject by Deputy Secretary of State, John Negroponte: Unilateral actions are probably not a durable or a viable solution over a prolonged period of time and I think the best way forward for both of our countries is to try to deal with the situation in that border area on a co-operative basis co-operative both between the United States and Pakistan, but also with the country of Afghanistan. So I would say trilateral cooperation, if you will, is probably the best way forward.
This should have been good enough to put all worries of a split between the Pakistani government and the Army to bed. But to drive the point home, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, more cautious about interpreting American signals that it would not attack without consultation, said Thursday that there were still no formal guarantees from the US about not attacking.
Unfortunately, the atmosphere in Pakistan is that of splits. The big falling away is between the PPP and the PMLN. In the past, the Pakistan Army was made the third party that decides who wins. So it is doubly unfortunate that Londons International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) may have inadvertently fuelled the fires of antagonism with its latest annual report that says, Zardaris major challenge will be to gain the trust of the army and build a consensus among the political establishment against terrorism and extremism. Already the opposition politicians are carefully wording their criticism so as to show the PPP ploughing a separate furrow from the Army and the PMLNs leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, is gradually zeroing in on the subject. He said Thursday: The US media is reporting that some agreements between the US and the Musharraf-led government had allowed incursions into the Tribal Areas. We hope that Asif Ali Zardari would give a clear policy to cope with the situation at our borders. We demand that being the powerful civilian president, he should announce that he is scrapping such agreements. Knowing that he was drawing close to the Army line, he added: The statement of [US military chief] Michael Mullen that US drones would continue to launch aerial strikes is not acceptable to us. We will neither accept an airstrike nor a ground offensive inside our territory.
If this was not enough politics-as-usual, Brigadier (Retd) Shaukat Qadir writing in The Friday Times (September 12-18, 2008) says: When COAS Gen Kayani recently met Adm Mullen, it seemed as if Mullen understood Pakistans position and agreed not to permit strikes across the Durand Line. However, there is a fairly reliable rumour afloat that newly elected President Zardari has given carte blanche to the Bush administration to attack Pakistani territory at will.
The truth is that the Army and the PPP government are standing together on the policy on US incursions. It is unfortunate that those who fear that a split might occur or who want the split to occur to create space for their favourite political elements to take over have jumped in to make things look uncertain. A split between the Army and the PPP will not strengthen anyone in opposition. Nor will it strengthen the Army or the PPP. And if the split actually happens, or the rumours about it actually bring it about, the country will lose its ability to stand up to the current challenges. For the splitters it will be a Pyrrhic victory.
muse
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This from today's IHT
The most dangerous job on earth
By Roger Cohen
Sunday, September 28, 2008
NEW YORK: Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan's new president and the widower of Benazir Bhutto, does not mince words in his determination to defeat a growing Taliban insurgency.
"It is my decision that we will go after them, we will free this country," he told me in an interview. "Yes, this is my first priority because I will have no country otherwise. I will be president of what?"
After the massive bomb attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, that's a fair question. Its finances in a free fall, its security crumbling, nuclear-armed Pakistan stands at the brink just as a civilian takes charge after the futile zigzagging of General Pervez Musharraf's U.S.-supported rule.
I asked Zardari, who took office this month, if the assassination of his wife last year motivated him to confront Islamic militancy. "Of course," he said, "It's my revenge. I take it every day."
He continued: "I will fight them because they are a cancer to my society, not because of my wife only, but because they are a cancer, yes, and they did kill the mother of my children, so their way of life is what I want to kill. I will suck the oxygen out of their system so there will be no Talibs."
Are you afraid for your life? "I am concerned, I am not afraid," Zardari, 53, told me. "Because I don't want to die so soon, I have a job to do."
What a job it is. If Pakistan is the most dangerous country on earth, a phrase no less true for being a commonplace, its presidency is one of the world's least enviable and most critical posts.
Billions of dollars in U.S. aid to the Muslim country's former military government have not stopped the northwestern tribal areas from becoming the new Al Qaeda-Taliban central.
The menace from there has been measured in a rising death toll for NATO forces in Afghanistan, 2,000 pounds of explosives at Pakistan's heart, and far-flung terrorist threats. No wonder ministers from across the world gathered under a "Friends of Pakistan" banner at the United Nations last week with promises of aid.
But money is worthless, as the seven years since 9/11 have demonstrated, unless some basic things change in democratic Pakistan. One is the double game that's been played by the nation's spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in an apparent effort to ensure Afghanistan remains weak.
"The ISI will be handled, that is our problem," Zardari told me. "We don't hunt with the hound and run with the hare, which is what Musharraf was doing."
Aside from Zardari's official meetings here with the likes of President Bush, I was told he held an unpublicized one with Michael Hayden, the director of the CIA. I also learned that the heads of three directorates within the ISI have already been replaced.
"We've changed a lot of things and a lot more will happen, and anyone not conforming with my government's policy will be thrown out," Zardari said of the ISI, without mentioning specifics or his meeting with Hayden.
Zardari also indicated that he wants to cooperate with the United States in training specialized counterinsurgency army units for use in the tribal areas. "I mean business," he said. "We will train ourselves with the U.S. present as trainers to raise the quality of certain forces."
But he warned against U.S. military incursions inside Pakistan, the object of tension since a commando raid on Sept. 3. "It is counterproductive and a political price is paid," he said, especially if no high-level target is found.
Zardari said his "new medicine" for the tribal areas would include industrial investment, incentives for alternative crops to poppy, like corn, and a firm message that "we are hitting the Taliban" so make sure "your space is not being used by them." A businessman, he noted that historically, "Nobody traveled through these mountains without either paying them or hiring them or sharing the booty of India with them."
But Pakistan is short of cash to strike Anbar-province-like deals in tribal areas. Zardari made an impassioned appeal for the Saudis and others to slash his annual oil bill by $15 billion by selling "a democratic Pakistan oil at their base price."
My impression? This guy's very smart, a wheeler-dealer in an area full of them, secular, pro-American, committed to democracy, determined and brave. I never heard Musharraf frame Pakistan's fight against terrorism with such candor.
I believe he wants genuine conciliation with India and Afghanistan, essential to the region's stability. I care much less right now about his checkered past than about getting behind him for the sake of civilization and democracy.
After he talked of revenge for Benazir's death, Zadari added this: "I am not a warmonger. I am not interested in physical might, which is not the expression of my strength. I have many strengths, and one of them is that I can take pain, not give pain. I don't consider anyone who can give pain brave, I consider anyone who can take pain brave. That is why I consider a woman a stronger gender because she can take much more pain than a man."
From a Muslim leader, and one so bereaved, I salute that, without reserve
The most dangerous job on earth
By Roger Cohen
Sunday, September 28, 2008
NEW YORK: Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan's new president and the widower of Benazir Bhutto, does not mince words in his determination to defeat a growing Taliban insurgency.
"It is my decision that we will go after them, we will free this country," he told me in an interview. "Yes, this is my first priority because I will have no country otherwise. I will be president of what?"
After the massive bomb attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, that's a fair question. Its finances in a free fall, its security crumbling, nuclear-armed Pakistan stands at the brink just as a civilian takes charge after the futile zigzagging of General Pervez Musharraf's U.S.-supported rule.
I asked Zardari, who took office this month, if the assassination of his wife last year motivated him to confront Islamic militancy. "Of course," he said, "It's my revenge. I take it every day."
He continued: "I will fight them because they are a cancer to my society, not because of my wife only, but because they are a cancer, yes, and they did kill the mother of my children, so their way of life is what I want to kill. I will suck the oxygen out of their system so there will be no Talibs."
Are you afraid for your life? "I am concerned, I am not afraid," Zardari, 53, told me. "Because I don't want to die so soon, I have a job to do."
What a job it is. If Pakistan is the most dangerous country on earth, a phrase no less true for being a commonplace, its presidency is one of the world's least enviable and most critical posts.
Billions of dollars in U.S. aid to the Muslim country's former military government have not stopped the northwestern tribal areas from becoming the new Al Qaeda-Taliban central.
The menace from there has been measured in a rising death toll for NATO forces in Afghanistan, 2,000 pounds of explosives at Pakistan's heart, and far-flung terrorist threats. No wonder ministers from across the world gathered under a "Friends of Pakistan" banner at the United Nations last week with promises of aid.
But money is worthless, as the seven years since 9/11 have demonstrated, unless some basic things change in democratic Pakistan. One is the double game that's been played by the nation's spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in an apparent effort to ensure Afghanistan remains weak.
"The ISI will be handled, that is our problem," Zardari told me. "We don't hunt with the hound and run with the hare, which is what Musharraf was doing."
Aside from Zardari's official meetings here with the likes of President Bush, I was told he held an unpublicized one with Michael Hayden, the director of the CIA. I also learned that the heads of three directorates within the ISI have already been replaced.
"We've changed a lot of things and a lot more will happen, and anyone not conforming with my government's policy will be thrown out," Zardari said of the ISI, without mentioning specifics or his meeting with Hayden.
Zardari also indicated that he wants to cooperate with the United States in training specialized counterinsurgency army units for use in the tribal areas. "I mean business," he said. "We will train ourselves with the U.S. present as trainers to raise the quality of certain forces."
But he warned against U.S. military incursions inside Pakistan, the object of tension since a commando raid on Sept. 3. "It is counterproductive and a political price is paid," he said, especially if no high-level target is found.
Zardari said his "new medicine" for the tribal areas would include industrial investment, incentives for alternative crops to poppy, like corn, and a firm message that "we are hitting the Taliban" so make sure "your space is not being used by them." A businessman, he noted that historically, "Nobody traveled through these mountains without either paying them or hiring them or sharing the booty of India with them."
But Pakistan is short of cash to strike Anbar-province-like deals in tribal areas. Zardari made an impassioned appeal for the Saudis and others to slash his annual oil bill by $15 billion by selling "a democratic Pakistan oil at their base price."
My impression? This guy's very smart, a wheeler-dealer in an area full of them, secular, pro-American, committed to democracy, determined and brave. I never heard Musharraf frame Pakistan's fight against terrorism with such candor.
I believe he wants genuine conciliation with India and Afghanistan, essential to the region's stability. I care much less right now about his checkered past than about getting behind him for the sake of civilization and democracy.
After he talked of revenge for Benazir's death, Zadari added this: "I am not a warmonger. I am not interested in physical might, which is not the expression of my strength. I have many strengths, and one of them is that I can take pain, not give pain. I don't consider anyone who can give pain brave, I consider anyone who can take pain brave. That is why I consider a woman a stronger gender because she can take much more pain than a man."
From a Muslim leader, and one so bereaved, I salute that, without reserve
Blossom
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these so called well wishers of Pakistan have just one problem with them!
they talk too much!
just be practical damn it!
why dont they Visit(daura) their own counties and resolve the provincial differences and bridge the gap between the people of these provinces who feel ingnored and abandoned???
i have sooo many whys in my mind but i now that asking questions wont make any difference!
nobody is going to answer
God bless and help Pakistan.Ameen
they talk too much!
just be practical damn it!
why dont they Visit(daura) their own counties and resolve the provincial differences and bridge the gap between the people of these provinces who feel ingnored and abandoned???
i have sooo many whys in my mind but i now that asking questions wont make any difference!
nobody is going to answer
God bless and help Pakistan.Ameen
fatman17
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Pakistans Faith in Its New Leader Is Shaken
Emilio Morenatti/Associated Press
By JANE PERLEZ
Published: September 26, 2008
Correction Appended
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan A week after the bomb attack on the Marriott Hotel here, Pakistan is struggling to deal with a financial meltdown and a terrorism threat that has moved to the nations heart and badly shaken confidence in the new government among Pakistanis, diplomats and investors alike.
In New York on Friday, President Asif Ali Zardari met with representatives of a group of donor countries, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, who were trying to come up with $5 billion to prevent Pakistan from defaulting on its debt.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said afterward that the United States would work toward Pakistans economic stability. But no decisions were made, according to participants, except that the donors would meet again in Abu Dhabi next month.
As the financial situation has deteriorated, diplomats here have become increasingly uneasy about the governments capacity to prevent further attacks on the scale of the hotel bombing, which killed at least 53 people and wounded more than 250 others.
The cabinet in Islamabad is confronted with a general breakdown of the state, said an editorial in the Friday issue of The Daily Times, a newspaper that generally supports the government of President Zardari.
In an extraordinary attempt at calming the jitters, Rehman Malik, the senior adviser at the Interior Ministry, met Friday with more than 50 ambassadors to try to reassure them that their embassies and their staffs would be safe.
Mr. Maliks audience went into the meeting with very deep concern, a senior diplomat said. They came out barely reassured, he said.
He and another Western ambassador, neither of whom wanted to be identified when commenting on domestic matters, said they were disturbed that Mr. Malik did not report any progress on the investigation into the Marriott bombing, or how it was carried out. If they start arresting groups, that would reassure us, the senior diplomat said.
Mr. Malik used a PowerPoint presentation to outline new security measures that included more police officers around the enclave where many embassies are situated, and more concrete barriers and closed-circuit television cameras.
But a second ambassador said that although Mr. Malik showed good will, there were grave doubts about the governments ability to finance and follow through on the steps.
The American Embassy closed its visa section on Thursday and Friday after what it called continuing threats. Embassy staff members were encouraged to work from home. All American government employees were forbidden, according to embassy orders, to stay at hotels in Pakistans main cities.
The bombing has cast gloom over the capital that is compounding the economic troubles that outlasted the administration of President Pervez Musharraf.
Lawyers and businessmen have talked about moving away, particularly to Dubai or Malaysia. Foreign investment had almost dried up before the attack, they said, and now some worried it would disappear altogether. Some of Pakistans biggest businessmen had already shipped capital abroad, crimping new business ventures.
Moodys, the international credit rating agency, cut Pakistans credit outlook from stable to negative on Tuesday, citing dwindling foreign exchange reserves, risks from extremists and high inflation.
Foreign exchange reserves have shrunk to $5.7 billion, with only about $3 billion available to cover payments for oil and food, according to the International Monetary Fund.
A major disappointment for the government has been the failure of Saudi Arabia, a traditional benefactor, to announce concessions on oil. In past economic crunches, Saudi Arabia has agreed to defer payment for the 100,000 barrels of oil Pakistan imports daily from the kingdom, the economists said.
That has not happened this time, and even with the recent drop in oil prices, Pakistan is eating through its reserves at the rate of about $1.25 billion a month, Pakistani economists say.
The international community cannot allow Pakistan to become a failed state, said a senior economist from one of the international financial institutions trying to salvage the economy.
Diplomats and others are weighing what steps to take for themselves.
British Airways announced this week that it was suspending all flights from London to Islamabad, the only direct connection between Europe and Pakistan.
At a meeting on Friday, senior officials of the United Nations agencies in Pakistan postponed a decision on whether to send family members of their foreign employees home, participants said.
Such a move would have sent an unmistakable signal that the security situation was grave. It would also likely have prompted some of the 250 United Nations employees to leave with their families, threatening projects ranging from Unicefs efforts to immunize children against polio to the World Food Programs distribution of food.
Of most concern, the ambassadors said, is lax security in the capital. On the night of the bombing, the policemen along the roads in the center of the city, which is designated a high-security red alert zone, were sitting on the curb eating in the ritual breaking of the Ramadan fast, the senior diplomat said.
That was one reason it was so easy for the truck to approach the Marriott without scrutiny, he said.
Pakistani officials and Western diplomats said they believed that the attack had been organized by the Pakistani Taliban, who work with Al Qaeda in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.
Most troubling was the likelihood that the huge amount of explosives estimated at 1,300 to 2,200 pounds had been loaded onto the truck over time in relatively small quantities.
It seemed likely that the truck was prepared somewhere within Islamabad, according to a Pakistani intelligence official who declined to be identified by name because he was not authorized to talk on the matter. He said the suicide bomber who drove the truck came from a training camp in Waziristan, a Qaeda stronghold.
The explosives used for the bomb were TNT and RDX, mixed with aluminum oxide, said Talat Masood, a retired army general and a former director of Pakistans largest munitions and weapons factory.
Such explosives are commonly found in anti-tank mines, Mr. Masood said. The explosives could have come from stores left behind by the Soviets when they left Afghanistan, he said. He said he was confident that investigators would discover the signature that would reveal where the explosives came from.
Though the death toll published by Pakistani newspapers is 53, foreign embassies said they had been informed by the Pakistani foreign office that more than 60 had died.
Two American military men Petty Officer Third Class Matthew J. OBryant, 22, of Duluth, Ga., a Navy cryptologic technician, and Maj. Rodolfo I. Rodriguez, 34, of El Paso, from the Air Forces 86th Construction and Training Squadron at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, died in the attack, the American Embassy said. A third American, described as a contractor for the State Department, is unaccounted for, the embassy said.
Even Pakistanis accustomed to suicide bomb attacks against government installations have been shaken by the attack on a landmark hotel and the prospect of more assaults on soft targets.
At a shopping center in Islamabad, Akhlaq Abbasi, 60, leaned on his counter and surveyed his empty store. Sales of fabric for mens suits and drapes, and cloth for womens traditional dress had evaporated since the Marriott attack, he said.
Babar Sattar, a prominent lawyer, talking over a cup of coffee at McDonalds, said he would stay. But everyone was depressed, he said. The governments first reaction was: Weve done all we could. Thats what really terrifies people. There seems no way to stopping the attacks.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: September 30, 2008
An article on Saturday about a decrease in confidence in the Pakistani government among Pakistanis, diplomats and investors after a bomb attack at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad paraphrased incorrectly from a comment by a spokesman for the American Embassy there about the status of one of three Americans. The spokesman said the whereabouts of the man, described as a contractor for the State Department, were unknown; the spokesman did not say that the American was dead. (On Sunday, the spokesman said the remains of the contractor had since been identified, but he did not release additional information.)
The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia
Emilio Morenatti/Associated Press
By JANE PERLEZ
Published: September 26, 2008
Correction Appended
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan A week after the bomb attack on the Marriott Hotel here, Pakistan is struggling to deal with a financial meltdown and a terrorism threat that has moved to the nations heart and badly shaken confidence in the new government among Pakistanis, diplomats and investors alike.
In New York on Friday, President Asif Ali Zardari met with representatives of a group of donor countries, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, who were trying to come up with $5 billion to prevent Pakistan from defaulting on its debt.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said afterward that the United States would work toward Pakistans economic stability. But no decisions were made, according to participants, except that the donors would meet again in Abu Dhabi next month.
As the financial situation has deteriorated, diplomats here have become increasingly uneasy about the governments capacity to prevent further attacks on the scale of the hotel bombing, which killed at least 53 people and wounded more than 250 others.
The cabinet in Islamabad is confronted with a general breakdown of the state, said an editorial in the Friday issue of The Daily Times, a newspaper that generally supports the government of President Zardari.
In an extraordinary attempt at calming the jitters, Rehman Malik, the senior adviser at the Interior Ministry, met Friday with more than 50 ambassadors to try to reassure them that their embassies and their staffs would be safe.
Mr. Maliks audience went into the meeting with very deep concern, a senior diplomat said. They came out barely reassured, he said.
He and another Western ambassador, neither of whom wanted to be identified when commenting on domestic matters, said they were disturbed that Mr. Malik did not report any progress on the investigation into the Marriott bombing, or how it was carried out. If they start arresting groups, that would reassure us, the senior diplomat said.
Mr. Malik used a PowerPoint presentation to outline new security measures that included more police officers around the enclave where many embassies are situated, and more concrete barriers and closed-circuit television cameras.
But a second ambassador said that although Mr. Malik showed good will, there were grave doubts about the governments ability to finance and follow through on the steps.
The American Embassy closed its visa section on Thursday and Friday after what it called continuing threats. Embassy staff members were encouraged to work from home. All American government employees were forbidden, according to embassy orders, to stay at hotels in Pakistans main cities.
The bombing has cast gloom over the capital that is compounding the economic troubles that outlasted the administration of President Pervez Musharraf.
Lawyers and businessmen have talked about moving away, particularly to Dubai or Malaysia. Foreign investment had almost dried up before the attack, they said, and now some worried it would disappear altogether. Some of Pakistans biggest businessmen had already shipped capital abroad, crimping new business ventures.
Moodys, the international credit rating agency, cut Pakistans credit outlook from stable to negative on Tuesday, citing dwindling foreign exchange reserves, risks from extremists and high inflation.
Foreign exchange reserves have shrunk to $5.7 billion, with only about $3 billion available to cover payments for oil and food, according to the International Monetary Fund.
A major disappointment for the government has been the failure of Saudi Arabia, a traditional benefactor, to announce concessions on oil. In past economic crunches, Saudi Arabia has agreed to defer payment for the 100,000 barrels of oil Pakistan imports daily from the kingdom, the economists said.
That has not happened this time, and even with the recent drop in oil prices, Pakistan is eating through its reserves at the rate of about $1.25 billion a month, Pakistani economists say.
The international community cannot allow Pakistan to become a failed state, said a senior economist from one of the international financial institutions trying to salvage the economy.
Diplomats and others are weighing what steps to take for themselves.
British Airways announced this week that it was suspending all flights from London to Islamabad, the only direct connection between Europe and Pakistan.
At a meeting on Friday, senior officials of the United Nations agencies in Pakistan postponed a decision on whether to send family members of their foreign employees home, participants said.
Such a move would have sent an unmistakable signal that the security situation was grave. It would also likely have prompted some of the 250 United Nations employees to leave with their families, threatening projects ranging from Unicefs efforts to immunize children against polio to the World Food Programs distribution of food.
Of most concern, the ambassadors said, is lax security in the capital. On the night of the bombing, the policemen along the roads in the center of the city, which is designated a high-security red alert zone, were sitting on the curb eating in the ritual breaking of the Ramadan fast, the senior diplomat said.
That was one reason it was so easy for the truck to approach the Marriott without scrutiny, he said.
Pakistani officials and Western diplomats said they believed that the attack had been organized by the Pakistani Taliban, who work with Al Qaeda in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.
Most troubling was the likelihood that the huge amount of explosives estimated at 1,300 to 2,200 pounds had been loaded onto the truck over time in relatively small quantities.
It seemed likely that the truck was prepared somewhere within Islamabad, according to a Pakistani intelligence official who declined to be identified by name because he was not authorized to talk on the matter. He said the suicide bomber who drove the truck came from a training camp in Waziristan, a Qaeda stronghold.
The explosives used for the bomb were TNT and RDX, mixed with aluminum oxide, said Talat Masood, a retired army general and a former director of Pakistans largest munitions and weapons factory.
Such explosives are commonly found in anti-tank mines, Mr. Masood said. The explosives could have come from stores left behind by the Soviets when they left Afghanistan, he said. He said he was confident that investigators would discover the signature that would reveal where the explosives came from.
Though the death toll published by Pakistani newspapers is 53, foreign embassies said they had been informed by the Pakistani foreign office that more than 60 had died.
Two American military men Petty Officer Third Class Matthew J. OBryant, 22, of Duluth, Ga., a Navy cryptologic technician, and Maj. Rodolfo I. Rodriguez, 34, of El Paso, from the Air Forces 86th Construction and Training Squadron at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, died in the attack, the American Embassy said. A third American, described as a contractor for the State Department, is unaccounted for, the embassy said.
Even Pakistanis accustomed to suicide bomb attacks against government installations have been shaken by the attack on a landmark hotel and the prospect of more assaults on soft targets.
At a shopping center in Islamabad, Akhlaq Abbasi, 60, leaned on his counter and surveyed his empty store. Sales of fabric for mens suits and drapes, and cloth for womens traditional dress had evaporated since the Marriott attack, he said.
Babar Sattar, a prominent lawyer, talking over a cup of coffee at McDonalds, said he would stay. But everyone was depressed, he said. The governments first reaction was: Weve done all we could. Thats what really terrifies people. There seems no way to stopping the attacks.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: September 30, 2008
An article on Saturday about a decrease in confidence in the Pakistani government among Pakistanis, diplomats and investors after a bomb attack at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad paraphrased incorrectly from a comment by a spokesman for the American Embassy there about the status of one of three Americans. The spokesman said the whereabouts of the man, described as a contractor for the State Department, were unknown; the spokesman did not say that the American was dead. (On Sunday, the spokesman said the remains of the contractor had since been identified, but he did not release additional information.)
The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia
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Mr Zardaris US visit
By Anwar Syed
ASIF Ali Zardari was in America a week or so ago. I happened to watch a television talk show in which the host asked several prominent Pakistani observers how they assessed the significance of his visit.
They wanted to emphasise that this was not an official visit to the United States, and that he had come to address the United Nations General Assembly. I have no idea what he would have done during an official visit that he did not do this time.
The participants in this TV show thought his address to the General Assembly, one of 32 delivered by visiting heads of government that day, did not go well. He mentioned Pakistans major problems only in passing. He wanted to talk mainly of himself and his family. He placed a large picture of Benazir Bhutto on the rostrum where all could see it, spoke of his abiding love for her and his dedication to her legacy. He announced, to the puzzlement of his listeners, that only the Benazir doctrine (of which they had never heard) could solve the worlds problems in the 21st century. He said he had come to the United Nations looking for justice which must be done by the appointment of a commission to investigate Ms Bhuttos assassination. This was a bad speech, unbecoming of a president, and one that did nothing for his country.
During this visit to the UN and other places, Mr Zardari took on the mission of introducing himself to world leaders who happened to be present. Second, he wanted them to know that democracy had arrived in Pakistan, that the country now had a democratic government, that the transition to democracy had been completed with his own election as president, and that all of this should be good news to the world. The interviewees on the talk show thought he should also tell his audiences about Pakistans central role in the war against terror, and the fact that its economy was close to collapse, and that the world must come to its assistance.
There is no convincing explanation of why Mr Zardari came to address the General Assembly. As far as I can tell, presidents who are heads of the executive back home came but those who are heads of state did not. Manmohan Singh came as prime minister, not president, of India. Many other prime ministers were present, and in some cases lesser officials represented their countries.
That Mr Zardari got to shake hands with a certain number of foreign dignitaries may have made him feel good but it cannot be said to have brought any gains to Pakistan. Government officials as well as the people of important western and Asian countries may have some interest in Pakistan, but it is unlikely that they want to know Mr Zardari (unless his lavish praise of Gov Sarah Palins beauty and his offer to embrace her tickled their fancy). Note also that several of our heads of state (Nazimuddin, Ghulam Mohammad, Iskander Mirza, Chaudhry Fazal Ilahi, Farooq Leghari and Rafiq Tarar) were little known outside Pakistan and no harm resulted to the country from that fact.
Democracy has come to Pakistan primarily because the generality of its people, print and electronic media, lawyers and judges, and other organs of civil society wanted it. Mr Zardari has had nothing to do with its arrival. Pakistan has done itself good by readmitting democracy, but in doing so it has not done the world a favour over which it should rejoice.
Mr Zardari does not have the credentials to present himself as a champion of democracy. He makes all of the important decisions for the PPP, and the party notables do his bidding. He advocates the supremacy of the constitution and sovereignty of parliament. In a parliamentary system the prime minister and his cabinet propose policies to parliament and manage the governments day-to-day business. But Mr Zardari directs this countrys governance in violation of its constitution. If he is a democrat, he is one in some weird sense of the term unknown to most of us.
Mr Zardari asks the world to help Pakistan in its fight against terrorism. The world knows that terrorism poses horrendous threats to this countrys peace and security. The government has a very tough time combating it. American incursions into Pakistans tribal territory to hit the Talibans hiding places are condemned as violations of its sovereignty. The government and people of Pakistan want these American moves to stop. America should leave it to the Pakistani security forces to eradicate the militants operating in its territory. This sounds reasonable. If American intelligence agencies have information about the militants location on Pakistani territory, they could share it with their Pakistani counterparts, who would then go and hit these hideouts. American officials are reluctant to go this way because, as some of them have said publicly more than once, they suspect that there are pro-Taliban elements in the Pakistani intelligence agencies that will pass on this information to the militants. The latter will then move away to other places.
The presence of pro-Taliban elements in the agencies is something to which Pakistani newspaper commentaries have also periodically referred. Mr Zardari should determine the truth of this matter. If pro-Taliban elements do exist but cannot be thrown out, the position being taken with the Americans should perhaps be reconsidered. Alternatively, Mr Zardaris government may want to re-evaluate its modes of participation in the war against terror. These aspects of the situation should frankly and truthfully be placed before the parliament and the people. Will Mr Zardari do it?
The world is being asked to pull Pakistan out of its currently disastrous economic situation. Its spokesmen say it needs an immediate infusion of $10 to15bn, and that is to start with. The country is incurring huge budget and trade deficits. Mr Zardari has no expertise in economic management that would enable him to identify the follies that have brought the country to the brink of a meltdown. Nor does he know specifically what his government must do to help the nations economy recover beyond any help that the outside world may give.
His recent visit to America, with an entourage of some 60 persons, must have cost millions. It would help if he cancelled all planned foreign trips. The hazards to the country they carry would reduce if he just stayed home.
The writer is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Massachusetts.
anwarsyed@cox.net
By Anwar Syed
ASIF Ali Zardari was in America a week or so ago. I happened to watch a television talk show in which the host asked several prominent Pakistani observers how they assessed the significance of his visit.
They wanted to emphasise that this was not an official visit to the United States, and that he had come to address the United Nations General Assembly. I have no idea what he would have done during an official visit that he did not do this time.
The participants in this TV show thought his address to the General Assembly, one of 32 delivered by visiting heads of government that day, did not go well. He mentioned Pakistans major problems only in passing. He wanted to talk mainly of himself and his family. He placed a large picture of Benazir Bhutto on the rostrum where all could see it, spoke of his abiding love for her and his dedication to her legacy. He announced, to the puzzlement of his listeners, that only the Benazir doctrine (of which they had never heard) could solve the worlds problems in the 21st century. He said he had come to the United Nations looking for justice which must be done by the appointment of a commission to investigate Ms Bhuttos assassination. This was a bad speech, unbecoming of a president, and one that did nothing for his country.
During this visit to the UN and other places, Mr Zardari took on the mission of introducing himself to world leaders who happened to be present. Second, he wanted them to know that democracy had arrived in Pakistan, that the country now had a democratic government, that the transition to democracy had been completed with his own election as president, and that all of this should be good news to the world. The interviewees on the talk show thought he should also tell his audiences about Pakistans central role in the war against terror, and the fact that its economy was close to collapse, and that the world must come to its assistance.
There is no convincing explanation of why Mr Zardari came to address the General Assembly. As far as I can tell, presidents who are heads of the executive back home came but those who are heads of state did not. Manmohan Singh came as prime minister, not president, of India. Many other prime ministers were present, and in some cases lesser officials represented their countries.
That Mr Zardari got to shake hands with a certain number of foreign dignitaries may have made him feel good but it cannot be said to have brought any gains to Pakistan. Government officials as well as the people of important western and Asian countries may have some interest in Pakistan, but it is unlikely that they want to know Mr Zardari (unless his lavish praise of Gov Sarah Palins beauty and his offer to embrace her tickled their fancy). Note also that several of our heads of state (Nazimuddin, Ghulam Mohammad, Iskander Mirza, Chaudhry Fazal Ilahi, Farooq Leghari and Rafiq Tarar) were little known outside Pakistan and no harm resulted to the country from that fact.
Democracy has come to Pakistan primarily because the generality of its people, print and electronic media, lawyers and judges, and other organs of civil society wanted it. Mr Zardari has had nothing to do with its arrival. Pakistan has done itself good by readmitting democracy, but in doing so it has not done the world a favour over which it should rejoice.
Mr Zardari does not have the credentials to present himself as a champion of democracy. He makes all of the important decisions for the PPP, and the party notables do his bidding. He advocates the supremacy of the constitution and sovereignty of parliament. In a parliamentary system the prime minister and his cabinet propose policies to parliament and manage the governments day-to-day business. But Mr Zardari directs this countrys governance in violation of its constitution. If he is a democrat, he is one in some weird sense of the term unknown to most of us.
Mr Zardari asks the world to help Pakistan in its fight against terrorism. The world knows that terrorism poses horrendous threats to this countrys peace and security. The government has a very tough time combating it. American incursions into Pakistans tribal territory to hit the Talibans hiding places are condemned as violations of its sovereignty. The government and people of Pakistan want these American moves to stop. America should leave it to the Pakistani security forces to eradicate the militants operating in its territory. This sounds reasonable. If American intelligence agencies have information about the militants location on Pakistani territory, they could share it with their Pakistani counterparts, who would then go and hit these hideouts. American officials are reluctant to go this way because, as some of them have said publicly more than once, they suspect that there are pro-Taliban elements in the Pakistani intelligence agencies that will pass on this information to the militants. The latter will then move away to other places.
The presence of pro-Taliban elements in the agencies is something to which Pakistani newspaper commentaries have also periodically referred. Mr Zardari should determine the truth of this matter. If pro-Taliban elements do exist but cannot be thrown out, the position being taken with the Americans should perhaps be reconsidered. Alternatively, Mr Zardaris government may want to re-evaluate its modes of participation in the war against terror. These aspects of the situation should frankly and truthfully be placed before the parliament and the people. Will Mr Zardari do it?
The world is being asked to pull Pakistan out of its currently disastrous economic situation. Its spokesmen say it needs an immediate infusion of $10 to15bn, and that is to start with. The country is incurring huge budget and trade deficits. Mr Zardari has no expertise in economic management that would enable him to identify the follies that have brought the country to the brink of a meltdown. Nor does he know specifically what his government must do to help the nations economy recover beyond any help that the outside world may give.
His recent visit to America, with an entourage of some 60 persons, must have cost millions. It would help if he cancelled all planned foreign trips. The hazards to the country they carry would reduce if he just stayed home.
The writer is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Massachusetts.
anwarsyed@cox.net
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