Yemen conflict: Pakistan is sitting on a time bomb

[Levina]

Nae, PPPP is supporting govt and so is army interested to earn few bucks, only PTI and educated are opposing..

Oh!
I heard your intelligence agency had also asked govt to not land itself in this quagmire.

they will give religious touch to that matter and opposition will have to back off or else they will loose vote bank.

No, I was talking about my country.
But am sure Pakistan is also not bound to help as long as it has not signed any treaty/deal.

 

[Leader]

Oh!
I heard your intelligence agency had also asked govt to not land itself in this quagmire.


No, I was talking about my country.
But am sure Pakistan is also not bound to help as long as it has not signed any treaty/deal.

Its for public consumption..they are very much interested in doing the "job"

 

[Sine Nomine]

No, I was talking about my country.
But am sure Pakistan is also not bound to help as long as it has not signed any treaty/deal.

Your country is not an exception Government of every country can fool public and use opposition at will,only in coalition governments this is difficult not in NS or Modi type governments.

 

[Jaanbaz]

This is not about Shia vs Sunni, at least not for Houthis. Please tell me if Houthis have be randomly going around blowing Sunni mosques and killing Sunnis in Yemen? As the article pointed out this was a natural reaction against Saudi influence in their country. You will see more reaction against Saudis in Pakistan too, many Pakistanis are realising that Saudis have done nothing but fund extremism in their country. Nawaz will not see this because they are self serving corrupt monsters that care about their business empire. The only hope is General Raheel and his fellow Generals, if they have sense they will do well to stay away from Middle east affairs, because its dirty and they love killing each other over Shia vs sunni differences.

Only Saudis and their wannabe be Pakistani Saudis want this war to become Sectarian, they want nothing but destruction around the world. It serves their global agenda, that is the only way their ideology spreads, any Muslim country with conflict attracts Saudi ideology. Strange is't it?

Lanaat on those Pakistanis who want to lick Saudi shoes. Watch this and jump off a cliff please.

 

[Levina]

Your country is not an exception Government of every country can fool public and use opposition at will,only in coalition governments this is difficult not in NS or Modi type governments.

Democracy remains the same everywhere, nobody can circumvent the existing laws. Modi's govt won't be able to do much if opposition is strong(like it happened during the recent land bill row).

 

[Sine Nomine]

Democracy remains the same everywhere, nobody can circumvent the existing laws. Modi's govt won't be able to do much if opposition is strong(like it happened during the recent land bill row).

I told you Government has tools to do that look at 2003 Iraq ops.

 

[OrionHunter]

Not really, I'm sure in our country if there was a strong opposition by political parties against sending troops to a diff country , then govt would have been forced to retrack its decision(unless we were bound by some treaty). (@OrionHunter could you confirm?)
So am assuming the same is true for Pakistan, most probably you had a secret deal, after all there're no free lunches, so all these years Saudi was pumping money into Pak for a reason. JMHO!

There is a Committee called the Cabinet Committee on Security which decides on India's defence expenditure, matters of National Security, and makes significant appointments.This is final authority on deployment of any expeditionary force to be sent to other countries.

Pakistan has a similar Committee called the Cabinet Committee on National Security (CCNS or C2NS), which is the principle consultative forum used by the PM concerning matters of the State's national security, and foreign policy matters.

The primary functions under the CCNS's domain is to advise and assist the Prime minister on issues involving the national security, threat of war, nuclear weapons politics, and challenges in geo-strategic and foreign policies.

Though the political parties do have a say in parliament, but the final decision making body is the CCS/CCNS.

 

[Winchester]

Frankly i have not seen a single mature defense analyst advocating for an intervention
From AVM Shehzad Choudary to Shireen Mazari to Mushahid Hussain all are saying this could have disastrous implications for Pakistan
Those advocating for a Pakistani military role are living in lalaland about Pakistan not being affected by the proxy war
Like it or not Iran could well heat up the situation in Balochistan plus could also make use of its shia proxy groups here
The sectarian sunni groups could also get emboldened and point out that hey now even Pakisan army is on our side in countering so called Iranian influence and launch attacks against innocent Shias here
I mean just look at the announcements of support of deobandi/wahabi mullahs for a Pakistan army intervention to get a taste of sectarian dimension of this issue
Those same mullahs are acting as apologists for the Taliban and call for negotiations with them

 

[niaz]

There has been a lot disinformation in both the Pakistani as well as Western press about the Yemen crisis. Let us try to ascertain:

What is real story?

Is there any danger to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia?

What part should Pakistan play in it, if at all?

I have visited the country three times during the last 15 years (last one in 2010). Twice to Sanaa and once to the Aden refinery (old BP) located at little Aden mainly on business.

There are about 8 to nine blocks of sedimentary basins, thus far oil has been found in 3 blocks only, Jamal in the centre, Masila in the South and Marib in the North. Yeminis believe they have potentially 9 billion barrels of crude but thus far about 4-billion bbl. have been located. Nearly half has been exhausted. At one time Yemen was exporting bout 200 K bbl. per day of the low sulphur Marib Light crude from Hodeidah. Production has since decline and crude exports have stopped because the rebel tribes keep blowing up the pipeline.

Real story of the conflict:

Yemen had been two seperate countries for a long time. North Yemen was an independent Zaidi Shia dominated state, whereas South Yemen as well as Aden was had been under British domination ever since East India company acquired Aden from the Sultan of Lahej in 1838.

Zaidis are a close to Hanafi Sunnis in their beliefs. They accept the first two Caliphs; Hazrat Abu Baker (RA) & Hazrat Omer (RA); as rightly guided, after the Sheikhain, Zaidis consider that Hazrat Ali (RA) should have the Caliph instead of Osman. I have witnessed Sunnis of Sanaa pray in the Zaidi mosques & vice versa.

Abdul Aziz Ibne Saud fought a brief war in Aden around 1930 which was followed by the 1934 treaty of Taif when the border between Saudis & the North Yemen state of the Zaidis was formalised. Yemenis conceded some border areas to the Saudis and got special privileges for the Yeminis to work in Saudi Arabia as a quid pro quo.

Nothing much of significance happened until 1962, when Nasser supported a rebellion against the Zaidi Imams by sending in 70,000 troops. Saudi Arabia in response supported the Royalists (Zaidi Imams). Saudi troops left in 1965 & Egypt evacuated her forces in 1967. As a consequence North Yemen became a republic in 1970. Ali Abdulla Saleh, a Sunni, was elected president in 1978.

South Yemen had been a Marxist state after the end of the British; Saleh succeeded in unifying the country in 1990 with himself as the president of the unified Yemen. At the time of Gulf War of 1991, Saleh was a supporter of Saddam Hussein and voted against the use of force to liberate Kuwait. Saudi Arabia responded by expelling more half a million Yemeni workers and withdrew the privileges enjoyed by the Yemenis since Taif accord of 1934 causing severe hardship to the Yemenis. However, since crude production had started in 1989, Yemen economy survived the crisis.

A North / South rift soon developed resulting in a brief civil war in 1994. Saudis supported the South, but Saleh managed to defeat the rebels, though rebellion was never completely quashed. Tensions between Yemen & the Saudis continued over the border issue dated back to Taif accord. This was partially resolved thru Treaty of Jeddah agreed in the year 2000 when Yemen agreed to Saudi border demand in exchange for the Saudis stopping the Southern rebels.

The border agreement affected the Houthis directly, it being their land. Similar to the Pashtuns of KPK, Houthis inhabit the disputed border area between Yemen & Saudi Arabia. Houthis fought intermittent war with the Saleh’s government starting in 2004, when Saleh tried to arrest their leader Badreddin Al Houthi. Occasionally Saudis also bombed the Houthi villages. It is understood that one of the reasons of the Houthi rebellion was Saudi efforts to convert Houthis to the Wahhabi creed. War ended when a ceasefire was agreed in 2010.

In the meantime; Al Qaida had been making inroads in the Sunni dominated Southern Yemen. In 1992 Al –Qaida attacked a hotel in Aden where US marines were staying and in 2008 Yemen Embassy in Sanaa was attacked killing 18 people. In 2011 Hillary Clinton visited Yemen raising strong concerns over growing Al-Qaida activities in Yemen. Yemen has since suffered her share of drone attacks and is considered as one of nurseries of Al-Qaida.

Following Tunisian protests (start of the Arab Spring) there was growing civil unrest in Yemen. In 2011 President Saleh was injured in a rocket attack on the palace and was flown to Saudi Arabia. Saleh returned to Sanaa in September 2011 and in November 2011, he agreed to hand over the government to his deputy Abdur-rabb Mansour Al Hadi.

There have been calls for politiocal reforms and In Feb. 2014 Hadi government agreed to divide the country into 6 political regions. However Houthis were not satisfied and started anti-government protest which resulted in President Mansour Hadi sacking his entire cabinet in August 2014.

Houthis took control of Sanaa in September 2014, but agreed to withdraw under a UN brokered peace deal. However, draft on the new constitution was rejected by the Houhtis in Jan 2015 and fighting was renewed. In February Houthis attacked the Presidential palace causing President Hadi to escape to Aden.

In March two suicide bombs targeted Zaidi mosques in Sanaa killing 137. Outhits declare their March to South Yemen. Hadi flies to Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile Salah, despite having relinquished power at the end of 2012, is still active. He is trying to re-assert himself and has allied with the Houthis.


Is there any danger to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia has the most powerful arsenal among the GCC states. The border dispute concerns the areas of the Yemen captured by the Saudi State in the 1930’s. Houthis pose no threat to the Saudi State or to the holy places of Islam. Yemen is a very poor country and her troops are very poorly armed. Realistically speaking, Yemen poses no threat to the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

This is not a Shia/ Sunni conflict either. This is purely a power struggle between supporters of Hadi on one side and those of ex-president Saleh as the Houthis on the other side for the dominance of Yemen. One could possibly see it as the Northern Yemenis trying to assert their influence over the Southern tribes. Not too different from the Pashtun / non Pashtun conflict in 1990s Afghanistan.

Iran has no border with Yemen, nor there do any clear evidence of Iranian support for the Houthits except verbal & moral support. However, similar to Afghanistan, where Pakistan is wary of Indian influence; Saudis consider Yemen as their backyard with thousands of naturalized Yemenis in their armed forces. Saudis are afraid that a Shias dominated Yemen; albeit in a much diluted Zaidi form; would be detrimental to the long term national interests. Since Iran has long been demonised by the Israel & the US, Saudis are presenting to the world as Shia/Sunni conflict to world in general and to the Sunni world in particular.

Only time Saudis ever showed their muscle was during the time of King Faisal back in 1973 when Arab petroleum producers embargoed oil supplies to the US. Since then there have been countless Arab Israeli wars, especially Israeli invasions of Lebanon & the Palestinian territories; why was their no Arab Summit as the one at Sharm el Sheikh against the Yeminis?

Fact of the matter is that Saudis know that they need boots on the ground if they want to re-install Hadi as president of Yemen and don’t want their troops to get killed. They would like someone else to die instead. There are rumours that Gulf States have promised Egypt $16-billion for Egyptian troops to fight in Yemen. They would like Pakistanis to do the same for pittance.

In my humble opinion, this is not Pakistan’s fight. I am dead against Pakistan’s troop involvement in this mess. This is truly not our war and we should do all we can to keep Pakistan away from it. I am hoping the better sense will prevail and saner minds will see thru the Saudi rhetoric

 

[Capt.Popeye]

@niaz sahab; you've summed up the situation in Yemen precisely and accurately. As for the KSA, they can and have hired people to do all their work for them: whether it is to run their oilfields or protect their country and ruling family. all the rest of the talk about territorial integrity etc. is simply hogwash. The only priority is to ensure that the throne is safe.

As for the others being pulled in to this fracas; either by blandishment or by coercion....... one can only remember the joke about three co-passengers on an aircraft; an American, a Russian and a Saudi Arab each boasting about their respective bravery....
Now let us see how the others are able to and for how long.... avoid getting drawn into this conflict?
The prognosis is not too bright.

 

[wiseone2]

@niaz sahab; you've summed up the situation in Yemen precisely and accurately. As for the KSA, they can and have hired people to do all their work for them: whether it is to run their oilfields or protect their country and ruling family. all the rest of the talk about territorial integrity etc. is simply hogwash. The only priority is to ensure that the throne is safe.

As for the others being pulled in to this fracas; either by blandishment or by coercion....... one can only remember the joke about three co-passengers on an aircraft; an American, a Russian and a Saudi Arab each boasting about their respective bravery....
Now let us see how the others are able to and for how long.... avoid getting drawn into this conflict?
The prognosis is not too bright.

what was the joke ?
" one can only remember the joke about three co-passengers on an aircraft; an American, a Russian and a Saudi Arab each boasting about their respective bravery...."

 

[Green Arrow]

Try your luck!
But am sure NS has some other plans for you.
Cant opposition prevent the govt from joining ME war?? @Leader

Pakistan is not joining the ME war any way. NS is not the only stakeholder in this regards and army has already said a big no to the govt. Govt is all playing with the words.

 

[CHI RULES]

Ali Abdullah Saleh former president was Zaidi shia not sunny previously supported by KSA, he was ousted due ordinary people demonstrations against including Sunny's. Now funny thing is that he is aligned with Houtis. KSA and allies have every right to safeguard their interests. Pakistan may help them with some SSG troops to protect KSA from Hauti retaliation, mean while taking no direct role in ground action. The Pak may get material benefits in long term from all GCC countries. Pakistan also has especial role among all Muslim countries. Further Iran can;t afford to open another front with Pak. Mean while china has own policies but they don't interfere in Pak internal matters as they also have mutually beneficial relationship with Pak. Categorically KSA has helped us in all matters unlike Iran.

 

[ziaulislam]

So ? The topic is w.r.t pakistan ! Why is pakistan getting their pantsies in a twist ? Is it the payback time ?

eygpt went in due to receiving over 10 billion dollars and comitment of over 13 billion dollars for new city.

as for pakistan 1.5 billion i snothing, we should return it ..

the real issue is that whole of the Arab world and turkey have already sided against Tehran aggressive policy in Yemen..and for Pakistan staying quiet means siding with Iran..

the best way probably will be to refuse military intervention but politically support saudis in modest way and asking the side to cease fire...

 

[niaz]

Ali Abdullah Saleh former president was Zaidi shia not sunny previously supported by KSA, he was ousted due ordinary people demonstrations against including Sunny's. Now funny thing is that he is aligned with Houtis. KSA and allies have every right to safeguard their interests. Pakistan may help them with some SSG troops to protect KSA from Hauti retaliation, mean while taking no direct role in ground action. The Pak may get material benefits in long term from all GCC countries. Pakistan also has especial role among all Muslim countries. Further Iran can;t afford to open another front with Pak. Mean while china has own policies but they don't interfere in Pak internal matters as they also have mutually beneficial relationship with Pak. Categorically KSA has helped us in all matters unlike Iran.

Dear Sir,

Wikipedia describes Ali Abdullah Saleh as Zaidite.

My info comes from ex-pilot of the President Saleh’s jet who was agent of the company I worked for in Aden. During one of the discussions about Yemen political situation, I was informed that Saleh belonged to the Sanhan tribe of the Hashid federation. Hashids helped the Zaidite Imam Yahya fight off the Ottomon gov’t in 1911 and North Yemen became a sovereign country. However Saleh was a Shaafai Sunni.

Saleh also supported Saddam Hussein in his war with Iran as well as against the allied invasion of 1991. Saleh also carried on a long running war with the Houthis and was supported by KSA against them. Zaidi Houthis were also involved in his ouster from the presidency. This led me to conclude that Saleh is a Sunni.

However, you could be right as I can't say with certainty whether Saleh is a Zaidi or a Sunni. This does not change conclusions of my earlier post that this is an internal matter of Yemen and Pakistan should keep her distance.