Will Iran enter to the war against Israel?

[LeGenD]

Shir ji may I Ashk... What is it concern of the Nuclear DHA?
Where is the mighty DG ISPR....? Shir jii
No Pakistani should be asking that question...
First let's win Pakistan freedom from DHA then we will worry about others and how and when they get involved.

Pakistan have not made tall claims. The Iranians like to make tall claims though. They never leave an opportunity to gloat about Hezbollah being a regional power and Iran being a superpower. You need to control your trolling.

 

[uhuru]

Of course, Pakistan will run away and hide. Our leaders will call for peace, while better men than us Fight the Zionists.

However, if it spreads, than the Saudis and others will ask for the Pakistani nuclear umbrella. If Pakistan fails in this, they will curse us and give us nothing for eternity.

It really is a once in an epoch event.

of course. the glorious ummah chummah brigade can make songs but failed in every action --- not even viagra can lift these useless turds...

they of course need to just do corporate farming and line their pockets with habibi dollars.

what a failed shenzistan these failed askaris have made. F for fail.

 

[Mithubajwa]

Pakistan have not made tall claims.

But still not a pakistani problem... If, why and how these claim are being made...

 

[LeGenD]

But still not a pakistani problem... If, why and how these claim are being made...

Sensible views are still a need for the platform.

 

[HGV]

When is the mighty Hezbollah opening up on Israel?

Hezbollah is already in a conflict with "Israel", striking it multiple times every day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721275636784812047

And when is the mighty Iran opening up on the US?

Why would we do that?

IDF is operating deep inside Gaza:

Sounds like a problem for Sunni Muslims / Arabs. Where are they? Iran owes nothing to Hamas. PIJ can rebuild from Syria or Lebanon in extremis.

US have deployed its forces in the region including a carrier strike group close to Iran:

The supposed red line of Hezbollah and Iran is crossed.

That was never Iran's "red line". The US CSGs remain in the Arabian Sea as they have on many recent occasions, and NOT in the Persian Gulf.

About Iran being a "superpower", this is obviously nonsense. Iran is a regional power. Iran is arguably the most important and powerful regional power (albeit lacking WMD and a powerful conventional military), but not much more than that.

 

[LeGenD]

Hezbollah is already in a conflict with "Israel", striking it multiple times every day.

Pointless exchange leading to heavy losses.

Hezbollah reports death of member in Lebanon-Israel clashes, toll rises to 73

Hezbollah mourns 'the fighter Jawad Al-Bazal from the town of Bekaa, who ascended on the path to Jerusalem' - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Israel kills seven more Hezbollah fighters on border with Lebanon

Iranian foreign minister says wider regional conflict inevitable as death toll among militant group rises to 78

www.theguardian.com

Israel does not fear Hezbollah.

Why would we do that?

Iranian foreign minister deflects question about threatening U.S.

But he condemned the United States for "interfering in all aspects of the region."

www.politico.com

Why would we do that?

Sounds like a problem for Sunni Muslims / Arabs. Where are they? Iran owes nothing to Hamas. PIJ can rebuild from Syria to Lebanon in extremis.

Hamas is expendable now? Wasn't Hamas a part of the much touted Axis of Resistance?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-one-can-guarantee-control-of-situation-if-israel-enters-gaza-iran-threatens/

That was never Iran's "red line". The US CSGs remain in the Arabian Sea as they have on many recent occasions, and NOT in the Persian Gulf.

Should be easy to take out.

About Iran being a "superpower", this is obviously nonsense. Iran is a regional power. Iran is arguably the most important and powerful regional power (albeit lacking WMD and a powerful conventional military), but not much more than that.

Some of the Iranians never miss an opportunity to gloat about Iran being a superpower and having superior war machine than the US. You can see these claims in this very thread.

This is not my fault.

I have always appealed to common sense in discussions. But how many have learned something?

 

[Enigma SIG]

Iran is playing safe, the gulfies will never let go of a reason to bandie up and declare war at the behest of their sugar daddy Uncle Sam. One wrong move and missiles will be flying all over in short order.

 

[Blue In Green]

Iran is playing safe, the gulfies will never let go of a reason to bandie up and declare war at the behest of their sugar daddy Uncle Sam. One wrong move and missiles will be flying all over in short order.

By the looks of it, Iran was never going to get involved in the war to begin with.

Amir Abdollahian, Salami and other IRGC/government officials tend to speak big game for internal consumption but they’re not at all interested in embroiling Iran into what is essentially an open-ended conflict without any immediate off-ramp.

 

[HGV]

Pointless exchange leading to heavy losses.

You asked when Hezbollah will attack Israel. I said they already are.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721275636784812047

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723766963720294727

Israel does not fear Hezbollah.

If this were true it would adopt a far more aggressive stance against it than it has so far. Both Hezbollah and Israel have some form of deterrence against escalation, neither side wants war.

Iranian foreign minister deflects question about threatening U.S.

But he condemned the United States for "interfering in all aspects of the region."

www.politico.com

How does this answer why you expect Iran to attack?

"Amir-Abdollahian also said that Iran was not responsible for Hamas’ attacks on Israel or any strikes in the region either against Israel or American forces in the area, including by Hezbollah, its close ally, in Lebanon." This is accurate.

Hamas is expendable now? Wasn't Hamas a part of the much touted Axis of Resistance?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-one-can-guarantee-control-of-situation-if-israel-enters-gaza-iran-threatens/

Hamas is supported by Iran but is obviously less ideologically aligned and integral to the Axis of Resistance than other members. Hamas and Iran famously had a public dispute when Hamas took an anti-Syrian Government stance in 2012-2014.

I would prefer not to speak of Palestinian groups as "expendable" or not. Their objectives are sometimes aligned with those of Iran and they are heavily armed and funded by Iran as a result, but they act with complete autonomy.

Should be easy to take out.

A US CSG 1000km+ from Iran's borders is very far from "easy" to "take out", as you know. Regardless, you suggested the US did something that crossed "The supposed red line of Hezbollah and Iran" - what is that?

Some of the Iranians never miss an opportunity to gloat about Iran having superior war machine than the US. You can see these claims in this very thread.

I am appealing to common sense.

I don't see anyone claiming that. The US war machine is a behemoth and the Islamic Republic of Iran acts accordingly (and rationally), with a clear and strong aversion to (directly) fighting a war with the USA.

 

[mulj]

Iran is already in war against israel but iran is not mighty and resourcefull like usa printing machine and global hegemon. Iran propped any resistance group willing to fight against western agressor and their outpost in middle east.
What Iran lacks are highly sophisticated AD and in big numbers layered in Liban, Iraq and Syria and ELINT facilities to support resistance.
So, far they coped with it unconventionally and they did great job in terms of land forces capabilities, next phase is making skies for enemy costly to use as they now use that advantage with no impunity.
They have some unusual assymetric solution for drones but fighters are the problem, hope that will change in future.
Now their economy stands good and will grow further with solid scientific and industrial base burden of proxy war will be easier for them then in past, if some else state actor like yemen join them even easier.

You asked when Hezbollah will attack Israel. I said they already are.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721275636784812047

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723766963720294727

If this were true it would adopt a far more aggressive stance against it than it has so far. Both Hezbollah and Israel have some form of deterrence against escalation, neither side wants war.

How does this answer why you expect Iran to attack?

"Amir-Abdollahian also said that Iran was not responsible for Hamas’ attacks on Israel or any strikes in the region either against Israel or American forces in the area, including by Hezbollah, its close ally, in Lebanon." This is accurate.


Hamas is supported by Iran but is obviously less ideologically aligned and integral to the Axis of Resistance than other members. Hamas and Iran famously had a public dispute when Hamas took an anti-Syrian Government stance in 2012-2014.

I would prefer not to speak of Palestinian groups as "expendable" or not. Their objectives are sometimes aligned with those of Iran and they are heavily armed and funded by Iran as a result, but they act with complete autonomy.

A US CSG 700-1000km+ from Iran's borders is very far from "easy" to "take out", as you know. Regardless, you suggested the US did something that crossed "The supposed red line of Hezbollah and Iran" - what is that?

I don't see anyone claiming that. The US war machine is a behemoth and the Islamic Republic of Iran acts accordingly (and rationally), with a clear and strong aversion to (directly) fighting a war with the USA.

Save you words for someone who is not biased and fed up on western cool aid of might and untouchibility.
It isj Just parroting mainstream western narrative and sources.
Diminishing Hezbolah capabilities is not a thing even among the enemy ranks in israel.

 

[Blue In Green]

You asked when Hezbollah will attack Israel. I said they already are.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721275636784812047

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723766963720294727

If this were true it would adopt a far more aggressive stance against it than it has so far. Both Hezbollah and Israel have some form of deterrence against escalation, neither side wants war.

How does this answer why you expect Iran to attack?

"Amir-Abdollahian also said that Iran was not responsible for Hamas’ attacks on Israel or any strikes in the region either against Israel or American forces in the area, including by Hezbollah, its close ally, in Lebanon." This is accurate.


Hamas is supported by Iran but is obviously less ideologically aligned and integral to the Axis of Resistance than other members. Hamas and Iran famously had a public dispute when Hamas took an anti-Syrian Government stance in 2012-2014.

I would prefer not to speak of Palestinian groups as "expendable" or not. Their objectives are sometimes aligned with those of Iran and they are heavily armed and funded by Iran as a result, but they act with complete autonomy.

A US CSG 700-1000km+ from Iran's borders is very far from "easy" to "take out", as you know. Regardless, you suggested the US did something that crossed "The supposed red line of Hezbollah and Iran" - what is that?

I don't see anyone claiming that. The US war machine is a behemoth and the Islamic Republic of Iran acts accordingly (and rationally), with a clear and strong aversion to (directly) fighting a war with the USA.

Yeah, I was confused about the Hezbollah musings.

I thought both Hezbollah and Israel have a mutual understanding that whilst IDF can inflict far more harm to Lebanon than Hezbollah can to Israel (physically speaking); the resulting violence isn’t worth it due to Hezbollah’s increased combat capabilities since their last war.

So both are actively engaged in a conflict that sees a constant back and forth between them but nothing major like what’s happening in Gaza.

 

[HGV]

Iran is already in war against israel but iran is not mighty and resourcefull like usa printing machine and global hegemon. Iran propped any resistance group willing to fight against western agressor and their outpost in middle east.
What Iran lacks are highly sophisticated AD and in big numbers layered in Liban, Iraq and Syria and ELINT facilities to support resistance.
So, far they coped with it unconventionally and they did great job in terms of land forces capabilities, next phase is making skies for enemy costly to use as they now use that advantage with no impunity.

US and Israeli military doctrine is based on air power and they are qualitatively very impressive. It's not easy for Iran, with its tiny budget, to combat that.

Regardless, Iranian AD capabilities are very strong and Iran can do a good job of challenging Israeli/US AirPower within its own borders, but to set up a large multi-layered AD network in another country is very hard as it can be attacked repeatedly before it is complete. So the dream of a AD network of Third Khordad + Tactical Sayyad + 15 Khordad + SHORAD systems + passive radars etc in Lebanon/Syria/Iraq is quite unrealistic for now.

Yeah, I was confused about the Hezbollah musings.

I thought both Hezbollah and Israel have a mutual understanding that whilst IDF can inflict far more harm to Lebanon than Hezbollah can to Israel (physically speaking); the resulting violence isn’t worth it due to Hezbollah’s increased combat capabilities since their last war.

So both are actively engaged in a conflict that sees a constant back and forth between them but nothing major like what’s happening in Gaza.

Correct. Also important to note that Hezbollah is a defensive guerrilla movement created to liberate occupied Lebanese territory from the Zionist occupier. Everything about its military doctrine is designed within that objective. So it's not really clear or logical how Hezbollah should intervene to support Hamas by randomly attacking Israel.

In recent years this has changed a little with Hezbollah gaining some offensive capabilities and experience in Syria, and with the elite Ridwan Units, but without air power they cannot be an effective offensive force.

 

[mulj]

US and Israeli military doctrine is based on air power and they are qualitatively very impressive. It's not easy for Iran, with its tiny budget, to combat that.

Regardless, Iranian AD capabilities are very strong and Iran can do a good job of challenging Israeli/US AirPower within its own borders, but to set up a large multi-layered AD network in another country is very hard as it can be attacked repeatedly before it is complete. So the dream of a AD network of Third Khordad + Tactical Sayyad + 15 Khordad + SHORAD systems + passive radars etc in Lebanon/Syria/Iraq is quite unrealistic for now.

Some deterence in that regard has to exist until then enemy will have upper hand in destruction ratio without consequences. I know that is expensive to cover whole countries but south of Liban and some strategic points in Syria covered with layered defense should be possible even under those circumtences, they can transport all need equipment to russian air base and install it simoultanious once all elements are gathered.
For me that is next logical step and must be in order to stretch enemy efforts further.
I am afraid that Iran at this moment is not sure if their AD assets works at all against modern threats and think that could be part of the picture why they do not it deploy in syria and liban.

 

[Blue In Green]

US and Israeli military doctrine is based on air power and they are qualitatively very impressive. It's not easy for Iran, with its tiny budget, to combat that.

Regardless, Iranian AD capabilities are very strong and Iran can do a good job of challenging Israeli/US AirPower within its own borders, but to set up a large multi-layered AD network in another country is very hard as it can be attacked repeatedly before it is complete. So the dream of a AD network of Third Khordad + Tactical Sayyad + 15 Khordad + SHORAD systems + passive radars etc in Lebanon/Syria/Iraq is quite unrealistic for now.

Correct. Also important to note that Hezbollah is a defensive guerrilla movement created to liberate occupied Lebanese territory from the Zionist occupier. Everything about its military doctrine is designed within that objective. So it's not really clear or logical how Hezbollah should intervene to support Hamas by randomly attacking Israel.

In recent years this has changed a little with Hezbollah gaining some offensive capabilities and experience in Syria, and with the elite Ridwan Units, but without air power they cannot be an effective offensive force.

I think the essence of LeGenD’s point is that Israel/America hold operative military initiative due to their immense capabilities. Anything the resistance forces do is a reaction to their movements and have been thus far, muted in scope due to mutual reluctance in widening the scope of conflict.

He does bring up a good point. Iranian officials tend to speak far too loudly. True or not, government leaders and military officials have to conduct themselves carefully and with exact language.

I’ve never been a fan of the way Iranian officials handle their PR shenanigans.

 

[HGV]

Some deterence in that regard has to exist until then enemy will have upper hand in destruction ratio without consequences. I know that is expensive to cover whole countries but south of Liban and some strategic points in Syria covered with layered defense should be possible even under those circumtences, they can transport all need equipment to russian air base and install it simoultanious once all elements are gathered.
For me that is next logical step and must be in order to stretch enemy efforts further.
I am afraid that Iran at this moment is not sure if their AD assets works at all against modern threats and think that could be part of the picture why they do not it deploy in syria and liban.

I fundamentally disagree with you here.

Even if Iran sets up some form of layered AD network in Syria, it will still be vulnerable to SEAD/DEAD missions by Israel and the USA. No AD network is hermetic, and definitely not on the border with an elite tactical air force like the Israeli one.

Iran only ordered small quantity of S-300 batteries (in 2007) and declined to order s-400 batteries even when offered by Russia. This shows confidence in domestic systems. I would like to see Bavar 373 operationalised on a mass scale, along with the Arman (Bavar 373 v2), but these are large long-range AD systems and very expensive, so it takes time.