Will Gwadar Grow to Become a Major Metropolis Like Shenzhen?

[BATMAN]

Gawadar will shortly and surely be operating at its full built capacity and there's expansion planned as part of CPEC development.
This.. I can assure to all nay sayers.

 

[RiazHaq]

I have also come across claims that after it been dredged to 20 meter draft and ability to berth 400 meter long 20,000 TEU class (carrying 20 K, 20 foot containers) container ships, by 2040 Gwadar could have the capacity to handle 400-million tons cargo.

A 20 Ft container can carry maximum of about 21,600 kg or about 21.6- metric ton of cargo. Jebel Ali, largest container port in the region, handles about 14-million TEU or about 302-million tons of cargo. Will Gwadar exceed this level?

Gwadar may expand to having a theoretical capacity of 400-million ton, but even if Gwadar port can actually break 100-million ton barrier by 2040, it would be great. Remember Karachi port current throughput is only about 45-million tons

Take a look at the way Gwadar land mass juts out into deep sea like a hammerhead with two bays: East Bay and West Bay both of which will have berths. The Port is backed by ambitious plans for dozens of special economic zones where Chinese and foreign investors will set up factories for exports.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/05/comparing-irans-chabahar-and-pakistans.html

 

[Samlee]

Pardon me but I don’t get the bit about the oil ships.

Having spent all my working life in the petroleum industry, I happen to know a little about oil industry. Most of the vessels anchor at a Fujairah or at Khor Fakkan awaiting fixture. Both of these ports are outside Strait of Hormuz. Having worked and lived at Fujairah for 5 years, I know this for a fact.

For the record current daily rate for VLCC (>200K DWT) is in the $30K range, for Suez Max (160K DWT) about $17K and for AFRA Max (100K DWT) about $12K. http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/WeberWeekly18-17.pdf

Sir I Do Not Doubt Your Expertise in Oil and Gas However I Also Speak From The Little Experience I Have Had In Working In Logistics Industry In Karachi From 2011 to 2015. I Can't Speak Much For Sharjah Or Fujairah But I Do Know About Dubai And On An Average 350 Ships Get Repaired There.Also Because Fujairah Is Outside Hormuz Does Not Mean That It Is Outside Danger.It Is Still Within Firing Range Of Iranians And Can Possibly Be Blocked.
Gwadar On The Other Hand Is Totally Outside The Gulf of Oman And Is Relatively Safer.

Looking Back At My Last Post I Realized I Committed A Mistake I Accidentally Gave The LNG Tanker Daily Rates.I Had Actually Wanted To Give You The Per Day Bunkering Rate.Back in 2011-12 The Rate Averaged $600-$700 per Ton and This Translated to $60000-$70000 per Day For A Container Ship of 10000+ TEU At 12 Knots.The Idea Is That Ships Will Not Have To Go Through The Busy And Possibly Perilous Hormuz Strait Thus Saving Precious Time and Money And Get Serviced At Gwadar.I Am Working On Personal Memory And Some Records I Have Left On My Laptop So I Apologise For Any Error.Saving Even 3 Days Means Savings of $180000 of Fuel.Not Only That Back in 2013 The Refinery Was Supposed To Be Installed By Iran Pakistan Would Have Gotten Bunker Fuel Practically Free Of Cost Only For Allowing Iran To Utilize It's Refinery.I Mentioned It In My Thread(Read Point 4)

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/2009-iran-sanctions-lost-opportunity-for-pakistan.504797/

The Fuel Accounts For Upto 60-70% Of The Operational Cost of A Ship.Giving This Facility At Knock Down Rates Would Have Given A Massive Competitive Advantage To Gwadar


In The Competitive World of Shipping Every Penny Saved Counts

Secondly, average sailing time to the northern most gulf ports (Kuwait, Basra, and Kharg Island) from Fujairah is no more than 3 days at 10 knots. Finally, the refinery at Gwadar, if & when it is built would be about 300 K bbl. per day. That is only about 15-million tons per year. We are talking about 400-million tons here.

http://pakobserver.net/china-to-set-up-refinery-at-gwadar/

OK Sir Number 1 I Am Talking About The Average Time It Would Take From Gwadar upto Dubai and Back Again And My Calculation Is Also Based Upon The Delays Severe Congestion That Existed in Jebel Ali As Well As The Hormuz Strait.

Secondly The Refinery Is Needed For The Refueling The Ships.No Ship Is Going To Stop At Gwadar If They Are Not Going to Get Fuel.The 400 Million Tons Is The Capacity of Cargo Gwadar Is Supposed To Reach.I Think You Are Confusing The Two.

The Idea Is That Because Gwadar Is Relatively Closer Compared To Dubai(And Even Fujairah) So Ships Would Stopover At Gwadar For Their Bunkering and Reapir Need

Gwadar is meant be primarily a shorter route to Chinese Western region. Therefore most of the traffic would be goods traffic that means large number of bulk carriers and container ships.


As of 2011 60% of the bulk carriers were handy size vessels (less than 50K DWT). Additionally total container ships inthe world were 4,677 with carrying capacity of 12.8-million TEU, this gives average container vessel to be 60 K DWT. This means even though Karachi has limited draft, it not necessarily a limiting factor. Given an increase in number of berths, its throughput can increase. Main bottleneck at Karachi port is the congestion on the roads. That is why Port Qasim was developed.



Salalah of Oman, specially built to rival Jebel Ali because it is oust side the Hormuz Straight. It has 18-meter draft and 19 berths; its current throughput is only about 3-million TEU (about 65- million tons).

Sir The Reason For The Smaller Ships Is Due To The Fact That Most Ports In The World Can Only Accommodate The Smaller Ships.Not Every Port Is Dubai,Singapore Or Rotterdam.Normally Larger Ships Are Used Because Of The Economies Of Scale That Exist.For Example Export Ships From Karachi Stop At Singapore On Their Way To Chittagong.

Karachi Port Is Too Densly Populated And The Land Rates Are Too High.So Increase In Berths Is Easier Said Than Done.But Gwadar(I Have Personally Been There via The Coastal Highway) Has The Advantage Of Miles Upon Miles Of Empty Land That Provides Tremendous Space For Development.This Is Why Gwadar Is Hoped To Be Developed Into A Mega Port


As Far As I Know The Port of Salalah Has A Draft Of 16 m Which Is Now Being Expanded To 18 m.According COPH
Gwadar Is Going To Be Dredged To 20 m.Also Another Technical Point Ships Need 2 m Extra Space For Hull To Manoeuvre.So Even With 18 m Oman Would Handle Ships Of 16 m Depth

There are so many unforeseen factors affecting any project that outcome is beyond control. It would therefore foolhardy to pin too many hopes on Gwadar. No single project can be a game changer for a large country. Having 400-million ton handling capacity does not mean that it will actually handle that much volume. Even if Gwadar actually achieves 5-million TEU per annum (more than 100-million tons), it would be a success story. However if Gwadar could achieve close to its proposed maximum, it would make me ecstatic even though I don't expect to be alive by 2040.

I Pray For Your Good Health and Long Life Sir

 

[war&peace]

Not a chance. Shenzhen was built by the Chinese and they have developed it as a city. Their interest in Gwadar is only the port and the connection to the port. If Pakistan wants Gwadar to be like Shenzhen then Pakistani's need to get off their own backside and build it up themselves. We won't do that - we don't do things like that. We have an attitude of thinking about what baba ji left for me, rather than what i can build.

I have slight difference here. If you look at all the major port cities around the globe, they need little to no effort from the govt to develop and grow. It is governed by economic fundamentals, port is a hub of trade so it drives growth. Government just need to make good policies and plan the growth of the city so it is systematic and do not turn into a slums. Investors always swarm port cities and when it is one of the world's largest port, you don't even need advertisement....by the way, our enemies are doing that inadvertently .

 

[RiazHaq]

Govt denies rumours of $500 million Chinese investment in Gwadar real estate

https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/20...ion-chinese-investment-in-gwadar-real-estate/

The federal government on Monday warned the general public not to pay any heed to the rumours about a heavy investment, allegedly made by a Chinese in the real estate business in Gwadar, and asked the investors not to invest in any phoney company which might be involved in a massive fraud.

In an official statement, the spokesman of Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform cautioned the public at large not to pay heed towards an alleged investment of US $500 million in Gwadar’s real estate business under the name of ‘China Pak Hills’.

Apropos news item – “Chinese company invests $500 million in Gwadar residential project” – published in a section of the press, has claimed that China Pak Hills has invested US $500 million in Gwadar’s real estate business. It is to put on record that Gwadar Development Authority (GDA) has not issued any No Objection Certificate (NOC) to a housing project named as ‘China Pak Hills’, said an official handout by China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Secretariat at Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform.

“The report is baseless and highly exaggerated. Even GDA has no information about $500m Chinese investment in the housing sector,” said the spokesperson.

He further stated that the news item presented a highly exaggerated scenario about Chinese professionals shifting to Gwadar by 2023. “The newspaper should have contacted the ministry of planning before publishing such news item having such content,” the statement added.