Why nobody wanted to help Panjshir or take the Gamble - It was due to Pakistan red-lines

[Titanium100]

So you are saying Pakistan is so powerful that it threatened the world with radio-active waves and everyone got scared? And didn't put sanctions on Pakistan? This "belief system" is childish to say the least.

The only reason why the Talibans got to where they are, are primarily:
1: US withdraw that was hasty and confusing to say the least
2: A total collapse of the Afg. NA. Didn't allow or provide anytime for any outside intervention and it was immediate.
3: Within days, the country was taken over, leaving no chance of even having the ability to provide outside support as India or any other country, would need to setup supply chain and it takes months.
4: Pure luck, that was on Taliban's side. All assessments went dead. I believe the idea was, the Afghan NA would hold Talibans at bay for about 1.5-3 months. It was enough time for outsiders to setup their militias and networks (like it's always been). But the sudden and immediate collapse of the NA, allowed no such opportunity.

Some of the logistics part is true but majority of this is wish washy wishful post.

I didn't say threatened the world but that nobody wanted to engage Pakistan over Afghanistan to interfere with her economy and stragetic interests.

1. Example remember when Turkey blocked Russia in Idlib and north Syria this could have turned into major conflict but this was not worth the effort for both to engage over Idlib and north Syria.

2. The same thing happened in Libya when Sisi set a red-line in Sirte the Turks could have taken the city ones but this could have lead to direct Turkish-Egyptian collision it was not worth the effort for Turkey.

3. Also not to forget China once blocked the US in North Korea. They wanted to advance and take all of Korea but once the Chinese entered they did an assesement analysis and saw that it was not worth the risk engaging China for North because of the cost and effort it will come at hence why there is north and south Korea

This is geopolitical abc, 123 you only fight major war when it is absolute necessary and you don't engage and fight a nuclear state over things that is not necessary last resort. Hence nobody wants to cross Pakistan's red-lines because it is not worth the effort to engage Pakistan and create such a major war over their redlines and economic and stragetic interests of that said country hence everyone will just go and mind their bussiness. It is loss-loss scenario and not worth the effort

 

[Adonis]

No.. India would have intervened but it could have started a pre-mature world war 3.. Pakistan would not allow India in her backyard this could have started the mother of all wars in the region. The Indians knew this and didn't want to miscalculate but it was never based on their balls or not but it was based on simple calculation

They have been in your backyard all this while...and still are (though covertly/through proxies)...

.Afghanistan is part of the great game.....it is not a short term conflict..... As west has planned, the area will be hot bed of terrorism (civil war you can call)...for next 15-20 years.....will suck in Islamic jihadis and religious fanatics from all over the world.

Understand one thing....West knows that if they don't keep these Islamist engaged in their own house, they will spill over to the West and devastate it......this is what they have been doing in the name of WOT.....and it will continue.....you can celebrate for a while, but against..it's a long game.....wait and watch

 

[PakFactor]

So you are saying Pakistan is so powerful that it threatened the world with radio-active waves and everyone got scared? And didn't put sanctions on Pakistan? This "belief system" is childish to say the least.

The only reason why the Talibans got to where they are, are primarily:
1: US withdraw that was hasty and confusing to say the least
2: A total collapse of the Afg. NA. Didn't allow or provide anytime for any outside intervention and it was immediate.
3: Within days, the country was taken over, leaving no chance of even having the ability to provide outside support as India or any other country, would need to setup supply chain and it takes months.
4: Pure luck, that was on Taliban's side. All assessments went dead. I believe the idea was, the Afghan NA would hold Talibans at bay for about 1.5-3 months. It was enough time for outsiders to setup their militias and networks (like it's always been). But the sudden and immediate collapse of the NA, allowed no such opportunity.

The whole thing was dead from the start you had Gen. Kiyani's warning to the Pentagon Top Brass way back in 2010 on record stating the ANA would collapse and wasn't worth the effort you killed OBL just wrap it up and go home and be done with it. The US & Co., failed to understand the ground level tribal, clan and local mindset this generation of leaders we have globally aren't the brightest and articulate as the generation before WWII no amount of education will give them common sense. You had individuals who were teachers, government officials, military during the day and Taliban by night. Remember one thing about our region which is much different than Arabs and Hindu's, we might fight among each other for various reasons, but if we are attacked from the outside we will unite and eject foreigners. The West lost before the 1st bullet left the chamber.

 

[SQ8]

So you are saying Pakistan is so powerful that it threatened the world with radio-active waves and everyone got scared? And didn't put sanctions on Pakistan? This "belief system" is childish to say the least.

The only reason why the Talibans got to where they are, are primarily:
1: US withdraw that was hasty and confusing to say the least
2: A total collapse of the Afg. NA. Didn't allow or provide anytime for any outside intervention and it was immediate.
3: Within days, the country was taken over, leaving no chance of even having the ability to provide outside support as India or any other country, would need to setup supply chain and it takes months.
4: Pure luck, that was on Taliban's side. All assessments went dead. I believe the idea was, the Afghan NA would hold Talibans at bay for about 1.5-3 months. It was enough time for outsiders to setup their militias and networks (like it's always been). But the sudden and immediate collapse of the NA, allowed no such opportunity.

The Pakistan NSA is on record just a month before the fall of the Afghan Army on avoiding a massive civil war. Unless the intelligence sleuths were running some clandestine operation to put Camp Century to shame the estimate was a reduced but still hostile Afghan government.

Afghanistan fell because of corruption - plain and simple. No other factor could have done any impact had the Afghan rulers truly been honest with their own people.
All other aspects, training, lower rung leadership and all would have been fine has their top leaders not been corrupt to the core and not really cared about Afghanistan.
Why do you think Pakistan despite whatever resources and billions in AID over the years and a massive population is still a third world teetering nuclear state? Corruption

 

[cloud4000]

Indians did not intervene because they are not idiots (not at that level, at least not the people making decisions). They have no direct lines of communication. The one airbase they have will be of no help for the kind of support that was required. The Iranians were not gonna help (by providing air route) because technically it is not in their strategic interest either especially when Taliban have total control over the Iranian ground border. Also provide air corridor by Iran would not have helped that much anyway.

It would be foolish for anybody to support Masood at Pansjhir given the situation for the reasons you mentioned. Plus, no one could foresee the sudden collapse of the Afghan government and army.

A sober analysis of the situation. Unlike what is written below...

I'll admit, I had a hard time making sense out of what you wrote, but fear not, I got the gist of it.

Anyways, I believe your assessment is wrong, the only reason India didn't intervene was because:

1. They don't have the balls.
2. They hate muslims, period.

There's a difference between being aggressive and being reckless, or in your parlance of having balls or not having balls.

 

[Titanium100]

They have been in your backyard all this while...and still are (though covertly/through proxies)...

.Afghanistan is part of the great game.....it is not a short term conflict..... As west has planned, the area will be hot bed of terrorism (civil war you can call)...for next 15-20 years.....will suck in Islamic jihadis and religious fanatics from all over the world.

Understand one thing....West knows that if they don't keep these Islamist engaged in their own house, they will spill over to the West and devastate it......this is what they have been doing in the name of WOT.....and it will continue.....you can celebrate for a while, but against..it's a long game.....wait and watch

As what diplomats? That is irrelevant and being a waterboy but NATO was there. As for the US I don't think anyone has the plan of being sucked into the western world or any of this plans it is misplaced? Engaged in their own world that is like more wishful thinking. They could have caused all sorts of engagement across the world if you think anyone can achieve that but that is just a pipe-dream at the end of the day. They are not god or anything like that. They also had planned that the Afghan war between ANA and TB would go into stalemate and last for decade or more look how that worked out? ANA even fell before they left.

All these Islamic countries or majority of them and they are over 50 except 2-3 are in turmoil but it is due to internal matters that can't be cured unless they settle themselves.. Don't attribute godly like attribution to a mere man who has major flaws in his stragetic planning and intelligence

 

[RescueRanger]

Afghanistan fell because of corruption - plain and simple.

Truer words have not been spoken.

 

[Adonis]

As what diplomats? That is irrelevant and being a waterboy but NATO was there. As for the US I don't think anyone has the plan of being sucked into the western world or any of this plans it is misplaced? Engaged in their own world that is like more wishful thinking. They could have caused all sorts of engagement across the world if you think anyone can achieve that but that is just a pipe-dream at the end of the day. They are not god or anything like that. They also had planned that the Afghan war between ANA and TB would go into stalemate and last for decade or more look how that worked out? ANA even fell before they left.

All these Islamic countries or majority of them and they are over 50 except 2-3 are in turmoil but it is due to internal matters that can't be cured unless they settle themselves.. Don't attribute godly like attribution to a mere man who has major flaws in his stragetic planning and intelligence

Aren't you overlooking and underestimating them? Iraq, Iran, Arab Spring, Libya, Sudan, Gulf Wars, Syria, Afghanistan..... is that only "2-3 in turmoil" for you?.... They have big plans, they have been executing it well.....and it's not only one objective they achieve with this but multi....e.g.

1. Keep trouble away from their country and let radicals fight among themselves...
2. Test bed for their weaponry, which then they sell to same countries
3.Destroy economy of the country and then make them consumer/importer of their goods (create new market)....benefiting their industries
4. Take control on their natural resources or use the territory to keep your presence in the region and an eye on your adversaries in the neighbourhood
5. Among Islamic countries, those having their favourable government/leader are peaceful ...for rest turmoil is created

So certainly they are not Godly.....but smart ones for sure.

 

[Titanium100]

Aren't you overlooking and underestimating them? Iraq, Iran, Arab Spring, Libya, Sudan, Gulf Wars, Syria, Afghanistan..... is that only "2-3 in turmoil" for you?.... They have big plans, they have been executing it well.....and it's not only one objective they achieve with this but multi....e.g.

1. Keep trouble away from their country and let radicals fight among themselves...
2. Test bed for their weaponry, which then they sell to same countries
3.Destroy economy of the country and then make them consumer/importer of their goods (create new market)....benefiting their industries
4. Take control on their natural resources or use the territory to keep your presence in the region and an eye on your adversaries in the neighbourhood
5. Among Islamic countries, those having their favourable government/leader are peaceful ...for rest turmoil is created

So certainly they are not Godly.....but smart ones for sure.

Probably some strange going off.. You mentioned Many countries who have been in peace for decades such as Iran, Sudan, Gulf countries and even Iraq is not in war period anymore and now not even Afghanistan but we will count and Libya. The post itself sounds like an Indian post which gives you out..

You may be giving to much credit where there is not. Part of this region is the empire belt and everyone has that arrogance and feeling or wanting to take over everything for himself or let me put it this way everyone has an ego around this area. The US is not entirely dumb but not nearly smart enough.. Without the US these states who have been at each others throats regardless to much ego.

A great Example is during Rama Raya's era in India there was 5 deccan sultanates who were constantly at each others throats to the point Rama Raya was entirely invisible to them and the competition between them and animosty was deep they started to ally with Rama Raya against each other he didn't even want to intervene but he was a hired gun what does this tell you and there was no America back than.. This region has always been like that since it is the empire belt and will continue to be in the next 1000 years hence you have given to much misplaced credit

 

[fitpOsitive]

(believe it or not, but someday IEA are going to turn upon us).

And those guys will end up in Tajikistan in last.

 

[Imran Khan]

sunny deol and ajit deol are not yet free they will go soon

 

[Zibago]

I love this casual nuclear blackmail becoming part of Pakistani lingo. Works well for India's cause. @SQ8

Where is the cause taking you? So far you failed to isolate Pakistan

 

[newb3e]

because the war was not being fought on tweeper where Indians are the bravest and invincible!

 

[Genghis khan1]

Truer words have not been spoken.


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I remember ANA soldiers and interpreters would try to steal gear or help local workers take misc items or wheel-borrowers full of bottled water from base to be sold outside. I would tell them, why do you guys steal, that’s wrong. Their reply would be, this stuff belongs to Kafirs, it’s permissible for us to take.

 

[Genghis khan1]

Afghanistan fell because of corruption

Corruption aside. Average ANA soldiers do not want to put out efforts or worst , die for a pay check. They knew that this job is a temporary gig and they were mentally ready to return to their villages once US leaves.