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Why missing IAF aircraft AN-32 had little chance of being found in case of crash

PARIKRAMA

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A very sad news and the ongoing discussion in PDF points fundamentally to somewhat same issues as pointed in this article.

We lost 29 good men to the ocean and we wont be able to return them back to their family (as of today EOD)

We hope to bring our men back and give them a honorable exit from this world and closure to their family.

Sadly the Mil Avia raises critical question. We will discuss them more after this Opening article.

++++
Why missing IAF aircraft AN-32 had little chance of being found in case of crash

Does AN-32 have systems on board to help rescuers locate and salvage if it were to crash at sea?


Jugal R Purohit | Posted by Nivedita Dash
New Delhi, August 1, 2016 | UPDATED 16:27 IST


an-32-story_647_072216013310_072616035924_072916082147.jpg

Picture for representation purpose

BRIEF
  • The AN-32 lacks features which come along with modern aircraft.

  • AN-32 was not an aircraft which primarily flew over the sea.

  • AN-32 does not have the Automatic Dependent Surveillance


Those involved in the search for the missing Antonov 32 aircraft are beginning to raise a fundamental point - does AN-32 have systems on board to help rescuers locate and salvage if it were to crash at sea?

At 2123 hours on June 8, last year, an Indian Coast Guard (ICG) Dornier plane vanished from the radar screens tracking it's journey in Trichy near Chennai. The three-member crew on board the aircraft never gave a distress call. For 33 days, no debris was found. Then, a submarine searching underwater, INS Sindhudhvaj, picked up acoustic transmissions emerging from the data recorders on board the Dornier flight CG791. Emerging from a depth of 990m at sea, those rapidly-fading acoustic signals were the only link available and the submarine did the needful. The debris, the recorders and mortal remains of the crew were recovered.

"There is no device on AN-32 which can emit such acoustic signals," said a senior planner deployed in the search. When asked why, he explained that AN-32 was not an aircraft which primarily flew over the sea for operations.

The locator devices on board AN-32 can emit electromagnetic signals/transmission using devices like the fixed Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT) or Personal Locator Beacons (PLBs) on rubber boats and vests. The ill-fated flight had 50 life vests and 10 boats. Unfortunately, these signals won't travel in water to be picked up by a sensor or submarine. "They are designed to function at the surface, say if they float, come in touch with water, but not underwater especially at a depth like 3500m where we suspect the plane has crashed," he explained.

Worryingly, as a senior source pointed out, "The ELTs have had a history of not functioning properly at the time of a crash. They did not work during Coast Guard crash, naval Dornier crash, both of last year and this was raised with the seniors."

AN-32 LACKS MODERN FEATURES

The AN-32 also lacks features which come along with modern aircraft.

For example, AN-32 does not have the Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast. This system, in place of relying on ground-based radars, relies on navigational satellites to automatically transmit an aircraft's journey in real time. The crew of the aircraft can switch it on or off. "In a mission like the one this aircraft was on, the crew would not mind being tracked. But because the system was missing, the alarm was raised only at 1225 hours, which is nearly an hour after it was to have landed at 1130 hours at Port Blair," explained a source. The AN-32 went out of the coverage of the ground radar in Chennai a little after 9am. No alarm was raised then.

The AN-32 also lacks other systems that modern aircraft possess. A source aware of the intricacies of the operation explained, "The Poseidon 8 India (P8I) aircraft which the navy operates has a deployable ELT, which in the event of the plane plunging into the sea will emerge out of the aircraft and self deploy on the surface of the sea. By doing so, it will help the searchers locate faster. The AN-32 has nothing like that".

A detailed questionnaire sent to the IAF was not answered.

A source explained, "AN-32 does not have any underwater locator or sonar locator beacon as it is not a marine aircraft."

WHAT IS THE SEARCH LOOKING FOR

"We are picking up debris, oil in a bid to see if it has anything to do with the AN-32. At this rate, we will end up cleaning the entire Bay of Bengal and yet not find anything," said a source. On the underwater front, the source explained, "It is anything that we can find. We are aware of the science and yet we are simply throwing everything we have at it".

National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) research vessel, Sagar Nidhi has been called for scanning the sea bed. The vessel, which is on its way from Mauritius, will use its echo sounder and look to the ocean floor to see if the ground pattern has any change. "We may not be able to tell if there is an aircraft or not but we can tell if there is any anomaly and that will then have to be investigated. There is nothing in that aircraft which can help us locate it. We will have to rely on luck," said an official from the ministry of earth sciences.

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) too is trying to pitch it. "However, the Ultra High Frequency signals which the plane can emit will never emerge as the water will absorb them. An effort is also being made if any of our satellite or those from our friendly countries picked this plane in its final moments when it was out of radar coverage
," explained a source aware of ISRO's operations.

SEARCH ON
  • 106 sorties flown for over 483 hours.
  • Nine ships in the search area.
  • Aerial search over 360 nautical miles by 300nm.
  • Surface search over 120 nm by 120nm.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/...-aids-searchers-say-handicapped/1/729014.html

+++

We in PDF had inferred few of the things correctly.. Right after the crash was reported in this thread
https://defence.pk/threads/iaf-an-32-missing-with-crew-of-29-in-bay-of-bengal.440542/

and we started pouring information, i had posted this


upload_2016-8-2_22-42-45.png

https://defence.pk/threads/iaf-an-3...9-in-bay-of-bengal.440542/page-3#post-8492765

and we also pointed to why we seek help from USA
upload_2016-8-2_22-44-11.png

https://defence.pk/threads/governme...sabotage-very-less.441822/page-2#post-8518314



upload_2016-8-2_22-54-40.png

https://defence.pk/threads/us-deploys-satellites-to-find-missing-iaf-aircraft.442319/#post-8528017


+++
  • It is indeed sad we lost 29 good men. RIP
  • Its even more tragic that our Mil Avia did not have proper instruments like UWB when its flying over sea
  • We need to find the wreckage and understand what really happened by analyzing the Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
  • We need deep sea salvage operation specialists in our IN. ROV and MSV is very much needed

+++

A side debate and discussions
  1. How long we should continue with An 32s?
  2. How good is the quality of the new upgrade package for An-32s?
  3. HAL MTA is on paper so what options we have?
  4. Should we opt for C295 or may be C130 XJs to do a complete makeover of our transport fleet?
  5. Should we look for Make In India for such projects to replace the An-32s over next decade?
  6. Critically, what should we do to increase our capability in SAR ops
    • Where is our dedicated fleet for SAR Ops (surface IN and ICG and for UW cases)?
    • What about our response time to SAR situations?
  7. What should we do to find the wreckage?

I have tried to keep this simple for debates, views and discussion.

Inviting you all for opinions.

Tagging @jhungary - Sir wish to use your professional expertise for a fair advice

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any chance or probability if this aircraft has been shot ?
There are no hostiles at that place.

Also i dont reckon any testing being done in that area owing to monsoon season and rough seas for any missile testing which are deemed experimental. In case there would have been a NAVAREA warning in advance and An32 would have avoided that flight path and flight time.

Unless there was a sudden cloud formation, a seriously major lightening strike, loss of control surfaces, collapsing aircraft, mid air loss of control and no time to react and straight plunge due to effect of gravity taking it deep enough for pressure to mount and crush the craft, possibly no other weather related explanation can be given...

Sadly its a horrific way to lose your near and dear ones and nation to lose their brave hearts..

++Critically both you and @Stephen Cohen missed the discussion and debate points at the lower half.. Pls share your views on that as well
 
There are no hostiles at that place.

Also i dont reckon any testing being done in that area owing to monsoon season and rough seas for any missile testing which are deemed experimental. In case there would have been a NAVAREA warning in advance and An32 would have avoided that flight path and flight time.

Unless there was a sudden cloud formation, a seriously major lightening strike, loss of control surfaces, collapsing aircraft, mid air loss of control and no time to react and straight plunge due to effect of gravity taking it deep enough for pressure to mount and crush the craft, possibly no other weather related explanation can be given...

Sadly its a horrific way to lose your near and dear ones and nation to lose their brave hearts..

The same aircraft had suffered TWO major problems in July itself

It was waiting to happen

IAF An-32 aircraft reported three snags in 12 days this month

http://indianexpress.com/article/in...-32-aircraft-missing-air-force-snags-2929751/
 
any chance or probability if this aircraft has been shot ?
Next to impossible as it is Non-Hostile territory. Malfunction or environmental issues may be most certain problem.



The same aircraft had suffered TWO major problems in July itself

It was waiting to happen

Probably never again, Air Force has decided now to install all An-32 with Underwater locators

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-underwater-locators/articleshow/53494250.cms
 
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@PARIKRAMA

3. HAL MTA is on paper so what options we have?

isn't Russia decided to go on building MTA all alone itself after disagreement over engine FADEC ?
Are we still in MTA?

4. Should we opt for C295 or may be C130 XJs to do a complete makeover of our transport fleet?
Mod may not approve those due to cost related issues. India withdrew tender of A330 MRTT after cost issues & also Rafale deal is stuck over total cost.

5.Should we look for Make In India for such projects to replace the An-32s over next decade?
Only if private sector is involved, as current manufacturers in india is unable to deliver on time.

6.Critically, what should we do to increase our capability in SAR ops
Dedicated SAR Team
Where is our dedicated fleet for SAR Ops (surface IN and ICG and for UW cases)?
Do we have one dedicated?
What about our response time to SAR situations?
Don't know but i think this time response was fast.

7.What should we do to find the wreckage?

Better equipment on Aircrafts such as emergency locators for such incident should be must, pilots and support personnel must be prepared for such scenario. (I know they would be trained for such incident but a better and more efficient response should be there)
 
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@PARIKRAMA

HAL MTA is on paper so what options we have?

isn't Russia decided to go on building MTA all alone itself after disagreement over engine FADEC ?
Are we still in MTA?

Should we opt for C295 or may be C130 XJs to do a complete makeover of our transport fleet?
Mod may not approve those due to cost related issues. India withdrawn tended of A330 MRTT after cost issues & also Rafale deal is stuck over total cost.

HAL MTA -
Russia developing alone atm. But I wont rule out Il 214 to be sold to India via HAL assembling at a later stage. Since HAL also has ambition for RTA, i have a sneaky feeling they will announce a MTA project alone later...

C295/C130XJs...-
Yes cost is an issue but should we continue with An32s for that alone. These aircrafts in another 15 years will be junk completely.

An-32 cost around $15 Mn
IL214 will be around $40 Mn
Among C130 XJ which is a properly a stripped down version of C130J (costing around $70Mn) and is around 15-20% cheaper and if we can get under MII, it can come to around $50-60 Mn.

But reliability wise C130s all over the world is pretty good. Tata can be a partner pretty quickly.

About 60-70 such birds can change the whole transport fleet in a decade.
 
HAL MTA -
Russia developing alone atm. But I wont rule out Il 214 to be sold to India via HAL assembling at a later stage. Since HAL also has ambition for RTA, i have a sneaky feeling they will announce a MTA project alone later...

C295/C130XJs...-
Yes cost is an issue but should we continue with An32s for that alone. These aircrafts in another 15 years will be junk completely.

An-32 cost around $15 Mn
IL214 will be around $40 Mn
Among C130 XJ which is a properly a stripped down version of C130J (costing around $70Mn) and is around 15-20% cheaper and if we can get under MII, it can come to around $50-60 Mn.

But reliability wise C130s all over the world is pretty good. Tata can be a partner pretty quickly.

About 60-70 such birds can change the whole transport fleet in a decade.
Agreed, AN-32s need to be replaced soon. However if Il-214 development goes almost as planned and we can have them from around 2020 that will be pretty viable and economic solution.

Well C130s are very reliable and a bit costly & we managed to crash one of them in early.
A balance between reliability and cost, an aircraft fulfilling all our needs, will be a ideal solution for us.

Tata can be a partner pretty quickly.
If somehow Tata develops an indigenous Transport Plane that will be much better. :tup:
Govt. should take steps for companies like tata.
 
HAL MTA -
Russia developing alone atm. But I wont rule out Il 214 to be sold to India via HAL assembling at a later stage. Since HAL also has ambition for RTA, i have a sneaky feeling they will announce a MTA project alone later...

C295/C130XJs...-
Yes cost is an issue but should we continue with An32s for that alone. These aircrafts in another 15 years will be junk completely.

An-32 cost around $15 Mn
IL214 will be around $40 Mn
Among C130 XJ which is a properly a stripped down version of C130J (costing around $70Mn) and is around 15-20% cheaper and if we can get under MII, it can come to around $50-60 Mn.

But reliability wise C130s all over the world is pretty good. Tata can be a partner pretty quickly.

About 60-70 such birds can change the whole transport fleet in a decade.

How does C295 fare? We can even have aircrafts like A300-A320 modified for transport roles.
 
Was this one of the upgraded aircraft?
And if so, why was such crucial tracing equipment for what is a transport aircraft and would likely be carrying VIP's in certain cases not procured?
 
How does C295 fare? We can even have aircrafts like A300-A320 modified for transport roles.



We approved C295 to replace Avros and AN 32 .

Avro aircraft replacement programme Tata-Airbus* Rs 23,000 crores - contract pending

http://www.gatewayhouse.in/indias-defence-towards-self-reliance/



I'm remembering Andhra CM YSR helicopter crash .

Locator Transmitter

Shockingly, according to Minister of State for Defence M.M. Pallam Raju, the helicopter’s Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT) was not working. Had it been working, it would have emitted high-frequency signals in the event of a crash. “These signals,” one aviation expert pointed out, “can be picked up by search helicopters as far away as 100 to 200 km and the location of the chopper or aircraft in case of a crash can be found.”

http://www.thehindu.com/news/iaf-deploys-sukhoim-k30/article14085.ece

http://www.sify.com/news/live-updat...a-reddy-dead-news-national-jjcs1Lbahaesi.html
 
Was this one of the upgraded aircraft?
And if so, why was such crucial tracing equipment for what is a transport aircraft and would likely be carrying VIP's in certain cases not procured?

Sir,
This was upgraded in India by BRD. Unfortunately the upgrade talked about ELT not sure if UWB was part of the package.
It's myopic vision that IAF crafts dont need UWB but this incident showed clearly any mil avia flight travelling over sea needs UWB ..

iAF folks now seems to be waking up and planning for UWBs for their fleet.

Sadly we are reactive not proactive...

It's a clear cut lack of foresight, vision and mission planning parameters which should have been in Annual Renewal Certificate of this aircraft (ELT and UWB).

Result we lost 29 men to sea and unable to provide closure to their near and dear ones.
 

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