Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine.

[acid rain]

Here is something for you to read:

Financial Times - China unlocks right kind of growth



Composition of China's GDP growth:

Consumption contributed 55% to our growth.

Investment contributed 50.5% to our growth.

Net Exports subtracted 5.5% from our growth!

Thats a good sign, china invests heavily in infra to boost up growth, good to see domestic consumption growing, so does exports still constitute more than 50% of your GDP?. Looks like it must have reduced marginally...right?. How's your bank collectables holding up? there was a huge bad debt scenario looming earlier, has it improved to some extent? what about your real estate bubble, have property prices appriciated after the slump?. Manufacturing had dropped considerably and was in the negative if I am not wrong - has it improved presently?

 

[Audio]

Composition of China's GDP growth:

Consumption contributed 55% to our growth.

Investment contributed 50.5% to our growth.

Net Exports subtracted 5.5% from our growth!

uuu, nice numbers. I like numbers. Watch how i spin them:

The consumption despite it's growth cannot account for the lack of exports thats's why your overall growth rate is falling and is projected to fall still. Your gov. through it's banks tries it's best in investment, some good (infrastructure), some bad (ghost towns) and improved crediting conditions (lowering the minimum amount of money banks must have stored at all time) to improve consumption to make up for it, but it still is not enough.
Now these are no predictions, much less something you can write off as Gordon Chang delusions, but just observation of what is happening.

 

[northeast]

Thats a good sign, china invests heavily in infra to boost up growth, good to see domestic consumption growing, so does exports still constitute more than 50% of your GDP?. Looks like it must have reduced marginally...right?. How's your bank collectables holding up? there was a huge bad debt scenario looming earlier, has it improved to some extent? what about your real estate bubble, have property prices appriciated after the slump?. Manufacturing had dropped considerably and was in the negative if I am not wrong - has it improved presently?

Exports has never constitued more than 50% of GDP，you simply can't compare exports with GDP.

 

[acid rain]

Exports has never constitued more than 50% of GDP，you simply can't compare exports with GDP.

What do u mean? yr exports were @ 50% or more of your nett GDP earlier. Your domestic consumption was @ around 35%.

 

[northeast]

What do u mean? yr exports were @ 50% or more of your nett GDP earlier. Your domestic consumption was @ around 35%.

Don't pull things from your ***，and what the heck is net GDP？Net Gross DP？

 

[acid rain]

Don't pull things from your ***，and what the heck is net GDP？Net Gross DP？

?? I read somewhere that exports contributed much more to your economy and were considerably higher to your local consumption not sure about actual numbers, now has that improved? Chinese banks had an major issues with collectables, they had a huge bad debt scenario owing to heavy infra investments that were not yielding returns and forcibly were writing off many loans has that improved? Chinese property prices plumetted considerably, has that improved, your manufacturing had slumped and was in the negative, has that improved.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

your manufacturing had slumped and was in the negative, has that improved.

When was manufacturing in the negative? Do you have a source?

We had a negative PMI a while back, but actual manufacturing growth was always positive.

(PMI is now positive as well).

 

[acid rain]

@Chinese dragon, my bad China exports are at 39.7% of GDP and not 50%.

When was manufacturing in the negative? Do you have a source?

We had a negative PMI a while back, but actual manufacturing growth was always positive.

(PMI is now positive as well).

What constituted to the negative PMI? good to know its improved now.

 

[ahfatzia]

India cuts growth rate forecast

A construction site in Siliguri.


NEW DELHI: India on Monday cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to just below six percent, putting Asia's third-largest economy on track for its worst annual performance in a decade.

The finance ministry said "supportive" moves from the central bank would be needed even for the economy to expand at the revised level of 5.7-to-5.9 percent, down from 7.85 percent estimated at the start of the year.

The forecast came a day before the bank was expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold as it waits for stubborn inflation to ease, despite mounting pressure for a cut to boost the sluggish economy.

"It should be possible for the economy to improve the overall growth rate of GDP (for the year) to around 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent" from 5.4 percent in the first half, said the Mid-Year Economic Analysis tabled in parliament.

The full-year rate would be far below the near double-digit pace India set before the onset of the global financial crisis.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has been urging the central bank to reduce high interest rates to bolster the economy.

But the bank has kept rates steady since April -- when it cut them for the first time in three years -- unlike other developing countries which have lowered borrowing costs to shield their economies from the eurozone crisis.

India's bank has insisted inflation must recede and the government needs to curb its ballooning fiscal deficit -- the widest of all emerging market economies -- before more rate cuts.

Growth in 2011-12 fell to a nine-year low of 6.5 percent hit by high interest rates, struggling overseas economies and sluggish investment caused by concerns about policymaking and corruption.

India's economy has not expanded by less than 6.5 percent since the 2002-2003 financial year.

Economists had already cut their year growth forecasts to mid-five percent or lower.

India cuts growth rate forecast - Channel NewsAsia

 

[acid rain]

India cuts growth rate forecast

A construction site in Siliguri.


NEW DELHI: India on Monday cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to just below six percent, putting Asia's third-largest economy on track for its worst annual performance in a decade.

The finance ministry said "supportive" moves from the central bank would be needed even for the economy to expand at the revised level of 5.7-to-5.9 percent, down from 7.85 percent estimated at the start of the year.

The forecast came a day before the bank was expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold as it waits for stubborn inflation to ease, despite mounting pressure for a cut to boost the sluggish economy.

"It should be possible for the economy to improve the overall growth rate of GDP (for the year) to around 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent" from 5.4 percent in the first half, said the Mid-Year Economic Analysis tabled in parliament.

The full-year rate would be far below the near double-digit pace India set before the onset of the global financial crisis.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has been urging the central bank to reduce high interest rates to bolster the economy.

But the bank has kept rates steady since April -- when it cut them for the first time in three years -- unlike other developing countries which have lowered borrowing costs to shield their economies from the eurozone crisis.

India's bank has insisted inflation must recede and the government needs to curb its ballooning fiscal deficit -- the widest of all emerging market economies -- before more rate cuts.

Growth in 2011-12 fell to a nine-year low of 6.5 percent hit by high interest rates, struggling overseas economies and sluggish investment caused by concerns about policymaking and corruption.

India's economy has not expanded by less than 6.5 percent since the 2002-2003 financial year.

Economists had already cut their year growth forecasts to mid-five percent or lower.

India cuts growth rate forecast - Channel NewsAsia

Overall economy is sluggish, lets hope to see better figures nex year on the back of some major reforms and infrastructure investments. Inflation is a cause for worry but has come down by nearly 2 percentage points last month, fiscal deficit is a bit high compared to previous year and lower FDI due to global economic crisis hasn't helped either. Rupee against dollar will trade lower for some more time and is expected to fluctuate by another 3-4 rupees, but overall economy is coming out of the slump with good manufacturing figures and steady export orders. But earlier growth estimates for this year are out of question.

 

[fallstuff]

Ah, a clever one.

I was wondering, if you have any info about Cardsharp ? He became the Mod of CDF. I have not seen his posting in a long time.

 

[ChinaToday]

I highly doubt the stats of CCP, it is difficult for a country which is export driven is growing at 7.5% even though the countries which are supporting are in recession like Europe and US.

Some thing is definitely wrong with the stats and GDP of China.

actually you are right something is wrong our growth rate is atleast double what we tell the world, if you ask a chinese how he is doing you are very likely to hear a hard luck story even though the person telling it probably had a million dollars in de bank.

back on topic , china is the bigest trading partners of nearly every country in the world couple with trillion of dollars investing in infrastructure the question you should ask is may be china not telling the truth their actual growth rate is 10.5 % not the 7.6% stated by ccp

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I was wondering, if you have any info about Cardsharp ? He became the Mod of CDF. I have not seen his posting in a long time.

Ah, good old Cardsharp.

Haven't heard from him for a while either. I wouldn't worry about it though, he can handle himself well enough.

 

[Jade]

Not in at least a decade.

US Intel report predicting 2030 is the year when India will displace China as a Global growth engine.

 

[Type 055]

Only way I see India ever surpassing China in overall power is if the leadership quality in the CPC goes down in the future and becomes very ideological. If this happens China will stagnate and India will close the gap and even surpass China. If China can do important reforms, keep the population employed and happy, reduce corruption as much as possible, not get into any long wars, increase transparency in government (not democracy), then China will be tough to beat for anyone.