Why doesn't the Indian army reduce its manpower ?

[Jat Boy]

I think an indian army of 36 combat divisions and around 900,000 is the ideal number

10 div in north ( mountain divs)
15 div in west ( 3 armoured 3 mechanised & 9 infantry) (5 corps)
10 div in reserve in south india

No more than 3000 tanks (60 regiments)

1600 T90
400 Arjun MKI1/2
1000 Upgraded T72

5000+ APC IFV

1000 pieces of mobile artllary & BMRL

OVER 150 attack helicopters indengious helko LAC & APACHE

over 1000 support helicopters to improve mobility Dhruv & MI17

ONE AIRBORNE DIVISION 15000 PARA TROOPS & SF

 

[Abingdonboy]

I will touch base an important ratios in corporate world
Salaries as a Percentage of Operating Expense

The metric of salaries as a percentage of operating expense is calculated as follows:

• Historically, the three industries with the highest median percentage of salaries as a percentage of operating expense were health care services (52%), for-profit services (50%)
• educational services (50%).
• Durable goods manufacturing (22%),
• construction/mining and oil/gas (22%),
• and retail/wholesale trade (18%) had the lowest median percentages of salaries as a percentage of operating expense.

Consider your own data you have given
View attachment 281694


Based on the data above, if i consider just On personnel+O&M+Procurement as operating expenses (for simplification) then in 2007 we were spending On Personnel much lower than average (28% vs 33%) whereas in 2012 its marginally above the average (41 vs 39)

The O&M implies that 2007 (25% vs avg 31%), versus 2012 (15% vs avg 28%) shows Indian defense forces (IAF/IN/IA) equipment's were having less issues as compared to wider belief that Indian defense equipment due to being legacy system are nearly defunct and maintenance heavy. The numbers clearly proves that timely retirement and our main vendors as well as main country of purchase (Russia) has still supplied us with less maintenance equipment. Yes we do have teething issues but you can see how media and lobbyists gunning Indian legacy equipment issues dont show in figures which is reality,

Procurement part showed a slowdown (47% vs 43%) yet above average. As i have pointed before in a different thread, UPA 2 last 2-3 years postponed all capex to get all ratios in order and to ensure that new incoming government suffers in all fronts especially in front of rating agencies like moody or standard & poor which will class as junk rating for failing to control spiraling expenses. It was a classic ploy by P Chidambaram on the instruction of Madam Maino for discrediting the new incoming government the moment they knew due to incumbency and corruption they wont get to make UPA 3. This would have helped them label BJP government as ill equipped and would have enabled them back to power in 2019 elections.

IF i go by banking logic for large manpower intensive organisations, we can maintain the max limit of Personnel expense at 40% and thus it tantamount to healthily maintain 40-45% procurement with O%M at 20-15% respectively, the Indian defence sector should look good in the long term.

IF its still at 40% then over time i see O%M rising to 20-25% (ageing and issues will crop up as now we have diversified to new markets so next decade will see first high cost maintenance before localisation kicking in and a stabilization phase therafter) and then falling back again to 15%-20% During this phase procurement % will fall accordingly.

@Abingdonboy

Very through analysis my friend, I shall bookmark it for future reference.

The IA is simply embarassing itself by continuing down its current path- the IN is making them look like complete fools.

 

[Vergennes]

where wars will be short and swift and be conducted by fast moving well trained and equipped forces.not huge lumbering strike corps.

Here's an analysis coming from the US about the Operation Serval in Mali and how it could be a model of expeditionnay force. (It might be different,because India doesn't need any projection capabilities as its principal ennemies is just next to it.)
It is interesting because French Army in Mali operated using small, scalable, and task-organized combined arms forces and built them up or folded them into larger, scalable formations,and was able to re-capture a territory that was bigger than France with only ~4.000 soldiers. (The ennemy was outnumbering us by far,and had a lot of equipments including anti tank missiles,mines,anti aircraft guns etc. coming from Libya's army stocks.)
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French Army operations in Mali (Operation Serval) in 2013 provide a model for designing and operating an expeditionary force, one that has a number of attributes and competencies that United States Army Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno has indicated to be requirements for the Army. The model therefore provides a living example that illustrates what meeting those requirements entails, as well as the associated risks. As France's War in Mali: Lessons for an Expeditionary Army details, the French in Serval demonstrated that they are adept at quickly fielding small yet highly capable forces tailored for specific needs and objectives and reiteratively task organizing as the situation evolves. They have done so in part by pushing modularity below the battalion level, enabling them to disaggregate and reaggregate elements of their brigades. The French have also invested in technologies and vehicles designed to enhance the capabilities of its units at all echelons. Moreover, the French Army, particularly its expeditionary brigades, is for all intents and purposes a regionally aligned force that has a demonstrated ability to leverage its area-specific expertise to compensate for its small size and to work effectively with and among local populations. The French Army also appears to have an operational culture well suited for expeditionary warfare, particularly in austere environments and with limited resources. The aspects of French Army operations in Mali discussed in this report make the French Army a model for building the kind of expeditionary force envisioned by Odierno, and perhaps one that is also increasingly in line with future United States Army budgets. The French example also highlights compromises that are associated with becoming more expeditionary and the attendant risks.
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Key Findings
Operation Serval Provides an Example of How a Technologically Sophisticated Army Organizes and Fields an Expeditionary Force.

• The French Army exhibits many of the traits outlined by General Raymond Odierno in his vision of the future force.
• The French Army in Mali operated using small, scalable, and task-organized combined arms forces and built them up or folded them into larger, scalable formations.

French Requirements and Resource Limitations Have Led the Army to Adopt a Force Structure Well Suited for Operations Such as Serval.

• The French use relatively lightly armored wheeled vehicles, which have smaller sustainment requirements compared with heavier, tracked vehicles.
• The French prefer mobility over protection, a choice that reflects their cultural and doctrinal emphasis on maneuver.
• The French Army draws on an expeditionary culture, which reportedly makes coping with austerity a point of pride and also reinforces certain approaches toward operating among local populations.

The French Way of War Represented by Serval Might Not Be Optimal for U.S. Commanders, Who Have Greater Resources at Their Disposal.

• Those resources enable Americans to minimize risk in a manner that the French cannot.
• Serval does not shed light on France's capacity to handle more-intense conventional conflicts or provide conventional deterrent power.
• The French are confident that their success on the battlefield and low casualty rate demonstrate the proficiency of their military, but they took large risks.

Recommendations
The Army should examine the French experience for additional insights, including in the following areas:

• the advisability of reducing protection and fielding lighter vehicles to enhance mobility and reduce sustainment requirements, and in particular the introduction of a vehicle with the weight, protection level, and firepower of the VBCI
• the potential advantages and costs of pushing modularity below the brigade level to facilitate battalion and company-sized combined arms deployments
• the impact of digitization on small-unit operations
• the integration of intelligence into lower-echelon operations
• training to enable company commanders to conduct decentralized, combined arms operations and practice mission command
• French insights into training and interoperating with West African and Sahelian security forces
• the costs of France's rotational equipping strategy (PEGP) and its effect on readiness.

France's War in Mali: Lessons for an Expeditionary Army | RAND
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The reduction sounds all good in terms of benefits, but does it provide for the role it plays in employing the population?

@Ragnar 's post is interesting,i'll quote it.

You cannot disregard the fact that Army provides employment and supports families in key rural areas. For that matter, most state enterprises like Railways in India are also bloated with excess and unproductive employees. It not that we cannot reduce the size, but it would be unpopular politically.

Here's the problem.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The reduction sounds all good in terms of benefits, but does it provide for the role it plays in employing the population?

It's not going to be easy.. A government employee today earns less but retiral benefits and pension is huge..

Armed forces has been always the biggest source of employment for the masses.. Especially interior india or rural India.. Money was never an important factor as previous time compensation was very limited.. But pride was the key for the family that their son is playing the role of protecting the motherland

Fast forward to today.. The co.pensation part is addressed.. On top the OROP one rank one pension increased it more.. In future the average age of IA in late 30s will hit late 40s and the quantum of people about to retire will increase much more.. Result will be a huge burden on the budget to support them with retiral benefits and pensions..

The only way possible now is emphasising on technological developments which reduces the requirement of numbers and moves IA towards a leaner meaner mightier role .. But that will take at least a decade or two.. And that will cost us at least two more pay commission result based salary and benefits and pension increase burden

 

[SQ8]

It's not going to be easy.. A government employee today earns less but retiral benefits and pension is huge..

Armed forces has been always the biggest source of employment for the masses.. Especially interior india or rural India.. Money was never an important factor as previous time compensation was very limited.. But pride was the key for the family that their son is playing the role of protecting the motherland

Fast forward to today.. The co.pensation part is addressed.. On top the OROP one rank one pension increased it more.. In future the average age of IA in late 30s will hit late 40s and the quantum of people about to retire will increase much more.. Result will be a huge burden on the budget to support them with retiral benefits and pensions..

The only way possible now is emphasising on technological developments which reduces the requirement of numbers and moves IA towards a leaner meaner mightier role .. But that will take at least a decade or two.. And that will cost us at least two more pay commission result based salary and benefits and pension increase burden

Which is in a sad way due to no more active conflicts or rather a continuous drain on lives by one; the IA force size is only being a burden and has little actual advantage in a conflict.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Which is in a sad way due to no more active conflicts or rather a continuous drain on lives by one; the IA force size is only being a burden and has little actual advantage in a conflict.

Tbh IMHO we have made a quantum jump in the pyramid lower n middle end if I talk about IA structure.
Many organisation goes through such a phase and some come out of it ubderstanding their mission objectives and vision not being in sync with changing times and opportunities

With a eye on peace and probable decrease in border tensions and utilisation of new technologies the scope of actual feet on ground is surely going to get limited..

Unless some portion are sent on deputation to take out internal issue creators including armed Maoists basically a jawan will just keep on cleaning his arms hoping to use them once and will keep training day in and day out waiting for the d day to come..

Sadly, need of hour is basically limit the soldiers in numbers and encourage perhaps short stint in active services and voluntary retirements or posting and easier jobs in other public sectors.. Perhaps that way rehab can be done and you may end up seeing a change..

But I can assure you such a change will easily take a decade or two to see results

 

[SQ8]

Tbh IMHO we have made a quantum jump in the pyramid lower n middle end if I talk about IA structure.
Many organisation goes through such a phase and some come out of it ubderstanding their mission objectives and vision not being in sync with changing times and opportunities

With a eye on peace and probable decrease in border tensions and utilisation of new technologies the scope of actual feet on ground is surely going to get limited..

Unless some portion are sent on deputation to take out internal issue creators including armed Maoists basically a jawan will just keep on cleaning his arms hoping to use them once and will keep training day in and day out waiting for the d day to come..

Sadly, need of hour is basically limit the soldiers in numbers and encourage perhaps short stint in active services and voluntary retirements or posting and easier jobs in other public sectors.. Perhaps that way rehab can be done and you may end up seeing a change..

But I can assure you such a change will easily take a decade or two to see results

Such change depends on job creation within the rural/poor. There is a false impression in our societies that education will solve everything when essentially all it does is only create new problems. The subcontinent is still decades behind certain Scandinavian countries in job equality and respect; where a forklift driver is given similar respect to a MBA.

Blue collar jobs are needed, the remote village in Rajisthan needs to modernize per se in terms of what is considered society and employment; and only then can we expect the military to move away from being more than just secure employment. Regardless of the propganda and bloated banter we see from the locals about patriotism and serving the country; most of it has to do with the security it provides as a career.

 

[SSGcommandoPAK]

Reducing numbers is not the solution.

Better management of funds is .

Imagine how we lack even in numbers, Pakistan can send in near about all of its army to the border in case of a conflict given its population centers are near, in the first 48 hours .

We cannot match them 1 for 1 in the first the first 48 hours.

Yeah but u will still need modern equipment to fight us even after the 48 hours have been passed

 

[Signalian]

IA is raising two new mountain divs to counter PLA.

 

[IndoUS]

IA is raising two new mountain divs to counter PLA.

They will be transferred from other units, they are just raising the units the whole man power is most likely coming from different units that already exist since strike corp is specialized unit so it would be foolish to get new recruits rather than getting already trained.

 

[Signalian]

They will be transferred from other units, they are just raising the units the whole man power is most likely coming from different units that already exist since strike corp is specialized unit so it would be foolish to get new recruits rather than getting already trained.

It's foolish to have under strength formations. This effects combat readiness more than before, puts strain on whole formation and overall makes the fornaions weak.

As far as I know, new units will be raised.

 

[IndoUS]

It's foolish to have under strength formations. This effects combat readiness more than before, puts strain on whole formation and overall makes the fornaions weak.

As far as I know, new units will be raised.

Not really, since they will be simply substituted in my new recruits in the old units, it is better to have already trained soldiers in a specialized units rather than new recruit. The army already does yearly recruit and gets enough recruits to support their expansion.

 

[Signalian]

Not really, since they will be simply substituted in my new recruits in the old units, it is better to have already trained soldiers in a specialized units rather than new recruit. The army already does yearly recruit and gets enough recruits to support their expansion.

Lol your point is okay but you don't have an idea what you are talking about and I don't want to go in basic maths.

New units may or may not have new recruits.

New units may absorb experienced troops and induct new ones too, thus keeping a mix.

But in order to raise a new formation, new units need to be raised. Which means newer infantry, artillery, signals, engineers, supply and transport units will need to be raised.

 

[IndoUS]

Lol your point is okay but you don't have an idea what you are talking about and I don't want to go in basic maths.

New units may or may not have new recruits.

New units may absorb experienced troops and induct new ones too, thus keeping a mix.

But in order to raise a new formation, new units need to be raised. Which means newer infantry, artillery, signals, engineers, supply and transport units will need to be raised.

Lol And why do you think India is buying all the equipment from US and other countries they have already planned this out the entire thing has been going on for years now they are simply acting on it.

New units that re being raised are specialized units for mountain warfare they will mostly come from existing units that have experience in Jammu since they would like to mix it with experienced and new recruits. The vaccum of transfer in the older units will have to be covered by new recruits coming in. The whole project is not for completion within a year it will be divided up into tranches.

 

[Signalian]

Lol And why do you think India is buying all the equipment from US and other countries they have already planned this out the entire thing has been going on for years now they are simply acting on it.

New units that re being raised are specialized units for mountain warfare they will mostly come from existing units that have experience in Jammu since they would like to mix it with experienced and new recruits. The vaccum of transfer in the older units will have to be covered by new recruits coming in. The whole project is not for completion within a year it will be divided up into tranches.

Now u get the point finally, good.