Why China will chose India over Pakistan

[Dr.Evil]

This whole relations between nations are not Zero Sum Games , China can wall have good working relations with both India and Pakistan.

Hopefully it will happen in the near future where all 3 countries will not have much differences.

 

[Developereo]

You and most Pakistanis will disagree, but to all of us in India, Pakistan is an emotional issue for much the same reason.

It is unfinished business -- the prodigal younger brother who left home in a huff, and who has now been left behind and is crying to all and sundry for help.

I actually agree with this analogy. Pakistan is very much like the younger brother who squandered his time while the older brother worked diligently.

The question is how to get the younger brother on track again. Whether it is a desire to show up his older sibling, or to do it for his own benefit, hte youngster needs to get his act together.

What most of you mistake for hate amongst our older generations (it is increasingly diminished with each passing generation .... sadly soon to reach the tipping point of irrelevancy) is actually a feeling of hurt and betrayal.

Actually I find the younger generation to be more hostile towards Pakistan. The older generation at least has some appreciation for shared history and culture.

 

[Champa-Chameli]

I hate to say this as a Pakistani but, in the long term, I see China abandoning Pakistan in favor of India. The reason is simple: Paksitan is pursuing the exact same failed policy with China that it did with the US.

Pakistan/China cooperation is strictly limited to military and governmental levels. There is very little people-to-people contact and almost no cultural exchange. The relationship is one of 'colleagues, not friends'.

India, on the other hand, is using its soft power to build a positive image amongst the Chinese masses. As China becomes more democratic, it will tilt more and more towards India.

This is exactly what happened in the US. While the Pakistan military enjoyed a cozy relationship with the Pentagon, India was busy buying politcians and working on a grass-roots campaign within the US.

Clueless as ever, the Pakistani government is pursuing exactly the same myopic and limited relationship with China. And there is no effort from the Chinese side to expand the relationship either.

The other main factor is that, instead of being a strong self-sufficient ally, Pakistan is becoming more and more like a destitute friend who needs to be propped up. Right now, China is facing subtle resistance and resentment from the West and it sees Pakistan as a symbolic gateway to the resource-rich Muslim world. Once China is firmly in the driver's seat, will they want to associate themselves with a perpetually sick friend like Pakistan because, let's face it, the feudal-military alliance leading Paksitan has absolutely no interest in a stable, strong Pakistan. They are strictly interested in a short term strategy of lining their own coffers while they are in power and then running away to some foreign country.

Thats why India is ahead of Pakistan.
Better Strategies, better future!

 

[T-Faz]

The China-Pakistan relationship is underpinned by traditional geo-political interests. These include concerns about India, about terrorism and religious extremism, and about domestic and regional stability.

China and Pakistan have similar geographical and historical concerns with respect to India that make the two natural partners. These include territorial disputes in their shared borders with India; a history of hostility and confrontation with India; and a mutual interest in manoeuvring to balance or contain India’s power and influence in the region.

China’s growing economic equities with India may be affecting its relationship with Pakistan in subtle ways. For example, when at least one Pakistani was shown to be involved in violent, coordinated terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, in 2008, Beijing appeared to pull its punches and adopt a more nuanced diplomatic approach. In the past, Beijing could be expected to have come to Pakistan’s defense diplomatically.

Terrorism, another shared concern, is also a potential wedge in China-Pakistan relations. China’s primary counter-terror interests are focused on combating extremism and separatism in Xinjiang and preventing extremist groups in Pakistan and other bordering countries from aggravating its Xinjiang problems. Pakistan’s counter-terror concerns are broader. They involve national ethnic divisions, resentment over perceived economic inequities, tribal conflicts, and multiple armed separatist movements that challenge the government.

Pakistan’s efforts to help further China’s interests can complicate its ability to meet its own interests. The Pakistan government faces pressure from China to crack down on extremist groups that challenge Beijing’s interests. Such crackdowns and intelligence-sharing efforts can bring countervailing pressure on Islamabad from indigenous Pakistani groups.

China-Pakistan economic relations are weak but growing. PRC investments in Pakistan are driven primarily by China’s demand for energy and natural resources and Pakistan’s need for infrastructure to accommodate the development of both.

Chinese economic activity in Pakistan includes road, sea, and rail transportation improvements, nuclear and hydropower projects, and mining. China’s economic relations with Pakistan offer immediate benefit to Pakistan and longer-term benefit to China. China’s investments in the Gwadar deep sea port, the Karakoram Highway, and planned rail lines have the potential to open up China’s West to further development by providing landlocked western China with its only ocean access.

As China’s energy and natural resource investments in Pakistan have grown, they have made Beijing more vulnerable to extremist threats in Pakistan. The Gwadar port and Karakoram Highway have been targeted by extremists, as have Chinese citizens living and working in Pakistan.

China-Pakistan relations have a strong military component, which some participants alleged makes the PLA a key player in China’s decisions involving Pakistan. Bilateral military cooperation ranges from naval cooperation, to past nuclear assistance, to arms sales, to combined military and anti-terror exercises. Roundtable participants held that PRC leaders much prefer the military-led governments of Pakistan’s past and appear less confident about the capabilities and effectiveness of the current, democratically elected civilian government in Pakistan. The United States and China share important existential concerns in Pakistan. Both view stability in Pakistan as an important policy goal, and both see their interests better served by secular government rule in Pakistan rather than by the ascension of a hard-line or fundamentalist regime.

Close U.S.-China coordination on many issues involving Pakistan was assessed as likely to remain difficult given Beijing’s predilection for bilateral action. Moreover, while the United States and China at this juncture share common interests in Pakistan on an existential level, Washington and Beijing have neither the same threat assessment nor the same hierarchy of priorities that could facilitate robust coordinated action.

Even without close U.S.-China cooperation, participants felt there are good possibilities for complementary U.S. action, aid, and investment in Pakistan. It was suggested that the United States could capitalize on China’s aid and infrastructure investments in Pakistan by making complementary investments that would serve U.S. interests in Pakistan.

More complete understanding of China-Pakistan relations requires further and broader study of other regional players. The relationship cannot be clearly understood without accounting for the roles and actions of India, the United States, Afghanistan, and Central Asian countries.

http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/D0022883.A1.China-Pak.pdf

As long as Islamic extremists or hardline elements to not come into power, we shall be fine.

 

[vsdoc]

Actually I find the younger generation to be more hostile towards Pakistan. The older generation at least has some appreciation for shared history and culture.

I think your perception is wrong, or maybe colored by the uniqueness of experience in your own case.

The hostility is all outward bravado and hot air, and mainly rhetorical, to be seen in the context of the situation and the forum it is expressed on.

I was not kidding when I said that I actually see Pakistan being a lot less closer to the hearts and minds of each successive Indian generation.

I see myself as a cusp generation, born as I was during the Bangladesh war. So the feeling of hurt and betrayal passed down to me by my father's generation, born around the time of Independence, is still strong.

Time, as in all things, heals most wounds. But sadly it also weakens the strength of sentiment of the shared bonds we once had. Which is why in previous wars, it was seen as brother fighting brother, and post the war, things came back to normal much sooner.

That is not the case today, where the terrorism and killing of innocents has robbed much of the brotherly sheen from the hostility, for a generation which is not as close to you guys anyways as the ones before them.

Remember what I said. Where there is love, there can be hate, and vice versa.

Where there was neither, there can only be indifference.

Cheers, Doc

 

[Dr.Evil]

Actually I find the younger generation to be more hostile towards Pakistan. The older generation at least has some appreciation for shared history and culture.

As VSDoc has put it correctly, When we (both Indian and Pakistan's) are in a belligirent mood specially on these internet forum's we fight a lot, but on the ground level there has always been very good relation between Indian's and Pakistan's overseas.

 

[Awesome]

Developereo, you are downplaying the complexity of issues between India and China.

As a moderator of thousands of Indian vs Chinese feuds on this forum I can safely say the hatred between India and China is much more than that between Pakistan and India.

There are NO friends in international politics, only national interests. Who can say what will definitely happen in the future, but right now there is not a single disparity in Pakistan and Chinese interests.

The IMF vs Chinese bailout argument also falls short. China has a history of giving Pakistan business not loans and that is what Pakistan wants from them and not loans.

This is also why I always hate aid given to Pakistan by US based entities. On the face of it, they don't earn anything and then feel a right of superiority with Pakistan.

Its the whole teach a man how to fish argument.

 

[Developereo]

I think your perception is wrong, or maybe colored by the uniqueness of experience in your own case.

The hostility is all outward bravado and hot air, and mainly rhetorical, to be seen in the context of the situation and the forum it is expressed on.

I was not kidding when I said that I actually see Pakistan being a lot less closer to the hearts and minds of each successive Indian generation.

I see myself as a cusp generation, born as I was during the Bangladesh war. So the feeling of hurt and betrayal passed down to me by my father's generation, born around the time of Independence, is still strong.

Time, as in all things, heals most wounds. But sadly it also weakens the strength of sentiment of the shared bonds we once had. Which is why in previous wars, it was seen as brother fighting brother, and post the war, things came back to normal much sooner.

That is not the case today, where the terrorism and killing of innocents has robbed much of the brotherly sheen from the hostility, for a generation which is not as close to you guys anyways as the ones before them.

Remember what I said. Where there is love, there can be hate, and vice versa.

Where there was neither, there can only be indifference.

Cheers, Doc

I think there are a number of factors at play here.

One is the rise of India on the global stage and the desire of young Indians to rise out of the ghetto. Claiming Pakistan to be irrelevant is just an easy cop-out for Indians to claim a global perspective.

Equally important is the influence of sensationalist and jingoistic media who use Pakistan as the bogeyman for every ill that plagues Indian society.

As bad as Mumbai terrorism was, it does not justify putting the entire India-Pakistan relationship on hold. India's reaction was that of a copy-cat USA-wannabe. But India is not the US. It cannot invade Pakistan unilaterally, command other countries to take sides, or otherwise pressure Pakistan. So instead it sulks and refuses to talk.

The Indian media continues to promote this collective sulk and the two countries keep drifting apart. While Indians may feel fine with it for now, given the current euphoria about the bright future, the fact is that, at the end of the day, you do have to get along with your neighbors. It is equally true for Pakistan as it is for India and both will eventually have to work hard to reestablish a relationship.

 

[Hulk]

Good Job Developereo. If people here remember I was saying the same thing for a long time, although I never thought about the culture thing. I see a similarity in what happened between US and India and what will happen between India and China. What I am not saying is that China will drop Pakistan, neither the US has dropped Pakistan. What will happen is when China, India relationship will grow they will start becoming more neutral in relationship, what that means is that they will try to balance both. When that happens Pakistan will lose its edge over India, in regards to its relationship with China. India does not need China to become exactly a friend, but if can coexist together like China and Russia that will be fine and I see that happening.
I foresee that China will drop its claim on AP, the reason is they are anyways doing nothing about their claim, maybe just keeping the claim open for negotiations. I do not think they seriously want it.

 

[Crypto]

Here's what I mean by 'friendship':
The US, Europe and Australia import hundreds of thousand of Indian workers and most of them stay to become permanent residents. Australia went so far as to hold travelling road shows within India and practically beg Indians to migrate to Australia. They even set up a fake "student" visa program so half a million Indians with zero skills or money could migrate to Australia pretending to be hairdressing students. Similar schemes are in place in US/Europe to intake large Indian migration. Germany instituted a green card program specifically to facilitate Indian migration. The Middle Eastern countries employ twice as many Indians as Pakistanis. All these countries regularly showcase Indian culture in their mainstream media. These are all signs of true friendship and a desire to form a long-term cultural relationship.

There is absolutely no comparison with the Pakistan/China 'relationship'. How many Chinese cultural shows do you see on Pakistan TV? Does the average Chinese person even know the difference between Pakistan and India? They have probably heard of Bollywood, but do they know anything about Pakistani culture? If they see some Pakistani cuisine, will they call it Pakistani or Indian? How many Pakistani students study in China and vice versa? With trillions of dollars in its coffers, does China sponsor Chines cultural programs within Pakistan? Do Pakistani children learn Chinese as a second language?

Was that program really setup just for Indian students? are you ok mate?

Can you show me any policy or document by DIAC which favors any one nation? Pakistani,India, Chinease, Bangladeshi, Germans, Nepal, Swiss , Russians etc. they all come here as students and if they fulfill the requirements they get Permanent residence.

When you say DIAC has fake hairdressing program on what basis you reach this conclusion? Trades were getting resience becuase Austrlaia wanted more hairdressers to fulfill emplyment demand, those students after studying the trade were driving taxis and doing menial jobs and not working in their profession they changed the policy and now you only get in unless you have work experience and genuine job offer.
And i know 100s of students from China, Pakistan, India, Nepal who took this opportunity and got their residence.

India is a big country population wise and lots of students want to pursue education in West for bright future just like Pakistan, Bangal etc - and Australia offers the best when it comes to prospects of migration. Before Australia US/UK was the hot spot but since they stringent their policies, students started flowing to Australia.
Not just India, students from all over the world took benefit.

 

[Developereo]

Developereo, you are downplaying the complexity of issues between India and China.

As a moderator of thousands of Indian vs Chinese feuds on this forum I can safely say the hatred between India and China is much more than that between Pakistan and India.

There are NO friends in international politics, only national interests. Who can say what will definitely happen in the future, but right now there is not a single disparity in Pakistan and Chinese interests.

I agree China's long term interests lie with Pakistan and that there are lot of online feuds between Indians and Chinese but I am not sure they represent the general public. I don't think the average Chinese knows or cares about India. Or Pakistan.

Amongst expat Indians and Chinese, I don't sense any hostility. Whatever hostility there is is usually racial and would target Pakistanis as well as Indians.

My point was that, with economic growth and rise of public opinion, Chinese leaders will be forced to temper their support for Pakistan with at least token gestures towards India. The ruling elite may know the long term threat from India, but the local businessman only wants access to a billion-strong market. He is worried about his sales figures for the next quarter, not what will happen 50 years from now in a conflict over river dams. The only way to get his support is through cultural awareness and friendship towards Pakistan. I don't see that happening.

The IMF vs Chinese bailout argument also falls short. China has a history of giving Pakistan business not loans and that is what Pakistan wants from them and not loans.

This is also why I always hate aid given to Pakistan by US based entities. On the face of it, they don't earn anything and then feel a right of superiority with Pakistan.

Its the whole teach a man how to fish argument.

Totally agree that the Chinese method of aid is far superior to the Western/Saudi/IMF method, but it still does not excuse our leaders not doing their job. The fact that China is smarter about their aid only means they are interested in genuine welfare of Pakistan as a country, instead of just throwing money to dictate foreign policy.

 

[Guynextdoor]

The Pakistan-India relationship is a lot more complex since, on the one hand, we share so much culture but, on the other, we had a particularly brutal 'divorce' with a million dead.

Indians will disagree but, to many in Pakistan, Kashmir is an emotional issue because it rings echoes of the violent separation. It is unfinished business -- the mate who got left behind and is crying out for help. There is no such parallel in the India-China relationship.

The Chinese are also emotional about Taiwan, but as long as the West is buying their products and helping build their economy, why complain?



That is my main point. What matters at the end of the day is not military power, but soft power. Israel enjoys unconditional Western support because of the immense soft power of its proponents. India has been especially adept at using soft power. From Middle East to Europe and the Americas, when most people think of India, they think of chicken tikka, yoga and Bollywood. There is a perception of immense poverty, but it is not what defines India to most people.



And we are grateful for that. In fact, I would be extremely uncomfortable if Pakistan depended on guarantees from another country for its own security. All we can ask from the Chinese is to provide technological and diplomatic support. Anything else would be nice, but we shouldn't depend on it.

Along with that, I think there should be a lot more cultural exchange between the two countries.

Wanna know the truth behind the 'contentious' Kashmir Issue and how it was made emotional?

a. Jinnah himself had agreed that the destiny of states in India will be decided upon individual secession of the rulers- they decide to go to either India or Pakistan and no choice available for independence. So why is Kashmir's secession to India supposed to be problematic? Fact is that Jinnah (& Muslim League) calculated that Muslim areas would autmatically seccede to Pakistan which didn't happen and when he saw the extent of territorial loss he faced (Hyderabad etc.) he decided to put up a fight for one muslim majority area (Kashmir). His intention may have been to secure greater territorial presence but the intentions of his successors was very different

b) Most of his successors had seen India formed in their life times- carved out of a mass of princely states and hodge podge of all relegions, languages and cultures- a historic anamoly. Countries like this just didn't exist. So they thught that by showing a little initiative they'll facilitate that breakup. Remember 'death by a thousand cuts' etc. etc.
They were at it well into the 1990s until it became clear that this state is a different cup of tea. So the current process of realistic reconciliation and rollback. Point is that immedeately after independence the rhetoric around kashmir was on relegion. After 1971 and especially in 1990s, the rhetoric moved to self determination because A LARGE MUSLIM MAJORITY AREA HAD DECIDED TO SECCEDE BY THEN (BANGLADESH) and no one could continue to say that kashmir should be a part of pak because it was muslim. Your policy makers needed to keep the issue alive one way or the other because the prize was something else...if kashmir moves off, it means many other provinces like punjab etc. could legitimately move off and result in the breakup of India- That was the real prize for your policy makers- not some piece of land. And that's why India was ready to (and continues to) see hundreds of thousands of ppl killed- We'll flush out any thoughts of that political process without any mercy.

 

[Bushy]

I hate to say this as a Pakistani but, in the long term, I see China abandoning Pakistan in favor of India. The reason is simple: Paksitan is pursuing the exact same failed policy with China that it did with the US.

Pakistan/China cooperation is strictly limited to military and governmental levels. There is very little people-to-people contact and almost no cultural exchange. The relationship is one of 'colleagues, not friends'.

India, on the other hand, is using its soft power to build a positive image amongst the Chinese masses. As China becomes more democratic, it will tilt more and more towards India.

This is exactly what happened in the US. While the Pakistan military enjoyed a cozy relationship with the Pentagon, India was busy buying politcians and working on a grass-roots campaign within the US.

Clueless as ever, the Pakistani government is pursuing exactly the same myopic and limited relationship with China. And there is no effort from the Chinese side to expand the relationship either.

The other main factor is that, instead of being a strong self-sufficient ally, Pakistan is becoming more and more like a destitute friend who needs to be propped up. Right now, China is facing subtle resistance and resentment from the West and it sees Pakistan as a symbolic gateway to the resource-rich Muslim world. Once China is firmly in the driver's seat, will they want to associate themselves with a perpetually sick friend like Pakistan because, let's face it, the feudal-military alliance leading Paksitan has absolutely no interest in a stable, strong Pakistan. They are strictly interested in a short term strategy of lining their own coffers while they are in power and then running away to some foreign country.

Irrespective of the accuracy of your analysis, I do have to say it is nice to see you exploring a point of view deliberately untouched by most Pakistani members.

I am of the view that mere 'bhaichara' or 'friendship or emotions are not enough to rely upon when it comes to diplomatic relations between any two states, for there is no such thing as a point of no return (for the better, or for worse).

We have seen the US and India getting close after bitter relationships, and China and India becoming bitter adversaries despite a long history of peaceful cultural intercourse. Mind you, during the cold war, more Americans used to visit India looking for spirituality, than they do now! That cultural exchange did not do anything to warm up the relationship between India and the US. So I say the best step forward always starts with self-reliance and progressive diplomacy, or so I think because India took this course and appears to be successful with it.

For the bold part, the lack of cultural exchange between China and Pakistan should not be a grave concern to average Pakistanis because of the state Pakistan is in right now. People need food, shelter, and feeling of security before they start looking outwards. In fact, if China is really using Pakistan to get a strong foothold in the Middle East, then it is doing so with the sole purpose of providing security of resources to its own people. And by siding with China, the state of Pakistan is also doing the same!

Pakistan's need of the hour is not to worry about the future with China, but to worry about the lack of allies in the present times. With the US gradually siding with India while doubting the sincerity of Pakistan, Pakistan's only choice is left in China, irrespective of what China wants out of it.

The best play for Pakistan would be to be careful in these testing times, and focus more on self-reliance to remain as a stable state lest some undesirable diplomatic repercussions shall occur.

For Pakistan, complete reliance on China for the sake of diplomatic security may not be the best option.

 

[Developereo]

Was that program really setup just for Indian students? are you ok mate?
Not just India, students from all over the world took benefit.

Indian students and Immigration: a case of too many cooks … | Crikey

Student numbers from India beginning new courses in Australian education institutions rocketed from less than 5400 in 2002 to more than 60,000 last year

most students did not have the skills needed for employment in their field or, for cooks and hairdressers, were not interested in employment in these trades

Do you honestly think some guy from India will pay $20,000/year in Australia so he can come back to India and become a hairdresser or a cook?

Australia education roadshow launched - Australian High Commission

 

[vsdoc]

I think there are a number of factors at play here.

One is the rise of India on the global stage and the desire of young Indians to rise out of the ghetto. Claiming Pakistan to be irrelevant is just an easy cop-out for Indians to claim a global perspective.

Equally important is the influence of sensationalist and jingoistic media who use Pakistan as the bogeyman for every ill that plagues Indian society.

As bad as Mumbai terrorism was, it does not justify putting the entire India-Pakistan relationship on hold. India's reaction was that of a copy-cat USA-wannabe. But India is not the US. It cannot invade Pakistan unilaterally, command other countries to take sides, or otherwise pressure Pakistan. So instead it sulks and refuses to talk.

The Indian media continues to promote this collective sulk and the two countries keep drifting apart. While Indians may feel fine with it for now, given the current euphoria about the bright future, the fact is that, at the end of the day, you do have to get along with your neighbors. It is equally true for Pakistan as it is for India and both will eventually have to work hard to reestablish a relationship.

Firstly, no Indian lives in a ghetto man.

I have grown up in pre-liberalisation India, and while times were definitely much tougher than what they are now, and we did not have a fraction of what our kids today take for granted aspirationally, we most definitely did not live in a ghetto.

We have grown and prospered on the back of the effort put in by my father's generation, continued and accelerated by mine, and which will culminate in pre-destined global economic powerhouse status tomorrow by my kids'.

We did not do this to make you guys look small. We did not do this to gain acceptance by the West. We did this for us. So instead of grudging us (admittedly smoothly) what we have achieved by dismissing us as aspirational wannabes, maybe it is time for you guys to do the same, whatever route you decide for yourselves.

Our media is no different from media anywhere else. So don't grudge them their living either.

When we say Pakistan is irrelevant, or that you do not count in the top 10 of the priority lists of most Indians, it is not to say that we are actively seeking to dehyphenate ourselves from you. It just is. And the de-hyphenation has happened on the world stage, and not a creation of us Indians.

If we feel justifiably vindicated and take small pleasure of occasionally rubbing your faces in it, instead of getting all uptight about it, use it instead to goad youselves into action and a concerted attempt at self-won parity.

Your final point. India and Indians would love to enjoy warm relations with Pakistan and Pakistanis. But if we do not, its not going to be something we cannot handle as a country. For as long as it takes. So please do not feel that we came back to the table and re-started dialogue because we were secretly worried about the repercussions of not re-engaging Pakistan.

Our reaction to Mumbai was measured, mature, responsible, and controlled. We are here today chatting on a forum thanks to that. You may or may not appreciate our response, but we both know that were the tables turned, the same would not ahve been the case.

And the world knows it too.

Cheers, Doc