Why China isn’t ready to invade Taiwan – yet

[jhungary]

It will not be the first time China fighting an insurgency after 1949. I am getting an impression that you are either consciously or subconsciously underestimate the capability of Chinese army in fighting insurgency and trying to tell people that they will be novices in this business.

Usually, except those racist thugs, armies don't purposely destroy people's homes, unless there is a fight coming from those homes. When that happens, you probably already have an insurgency in hand.

Am I underestimating China capability of fighting an insurgency? Don't know, I said what I said base on my own experience. And my experience is this, NOBODY IN THIS WORLD is ready to deal with insurgency. US military has been dealing with insurgency since 1960 since Vietnam war, from Vietnam to Philippine, to Bolivia to Afghanistan, to Grenada to Peru, to Cuba, to Iran, to Congo, to Iraq and back to Afghanistan. I mean, we fought in Afghanistan twice, dealing with pretty much the same people (albeit a few generation later) yet when I step foot in Afghanistan in 2005, I know nothing fighting an active insurgency when I first arrived.

Now you may think the US military is a failed force, well, that's your opinion, and if you think so, then name me one armed force that is more capable than the US military.

So, what make you think PLA, which have relatively little fighting experience, even less in insurgency warfare, have the capability to deal with one? On a wing and a prayer and start a war then hope everything is A-OK?

You overestimate insurgency. An insurgency can only survive if there is foreign backing, and access to backers borders. SAA conquered rebel parts and there is no insurgency because they control the border.

umm, I am not going to deal with you anymore, quite obviously you have something wrong in the head.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Am I underestimating China capability of fighting an insurgency? Don't know, I said what I said base on my own experience. And my experience is this, NOBODY IN THIS WORLD is ready to deal with insurgency.

LMFAO, you think the latte-sipping soy-boys in the RoC "army" are going to head for the hills and mount an insurgency? The terrain will kill them far faster than the PLA. You think this is some Hollywood fantasy?

 

[jhungary]

LMFAO, you think the latte-sipping soy-boys in the RoC "army" are going to head for the hills and mount an insurgency? The terrain will kill them far faster than the PLA. You think this is some Hollywood fantasy?

sure, PLA will win a war with RoC in RoC backyard pretty easy, RoC troop would just surrender enmasse, how do I know? Because I said so...

LOL

 

[Han Patriot]

it's easy for you to say, when you are probably not the one that the government ask you to recover Taiwan.....

From my personal experience fighting against insurgency, I can tell you this, its no fun...

I don't see how China can actually use force to recover Taiwan, the more you push, the more they push back, probably better off give up the force option and try the damnest to recover Taiwan via diplomatic mean.



If you ask me to fight now, I would probably tell you to go to hell. Problem is, it's a completely different scenario if you have a gun pointed at your head and having tank and invade your home, what would you do? Wave the Chinese flag and sing Kumbaya?

If you read my previous post, you would know the dilemma I talked about, if and when China decided to use force, that is the point when either or both party think "Peaceful" reunion is not possible. Then you will fight because if you do not, you will die.

Or you do expect the Chinese roll into Taiwan and people are going to wave Chinese flag and welcome them? If that is the case, they would have already done it via diplomatic mean, you wouldn't use tanks and gun if this is the case.

The point is they won't die if they surrender. We are not Japanese coming to annihilate them, these are our relatives and cousins and brothers. So alot will surrender, as seen during the civil war in 49. All KMT soldiers surrendered and join the PLA. There is no existential threat.

sure, PLA will win a war with RoC in RoC backyard pretty easy, RoC troop would just surrender enmasse, how do I know? Because I said so...

LOL

Why are you so angry at them surrendering n joining China? Don't you love your motherland? You are telling me you are Chinese and yet here you seems to want a dusintegradis China. I am not sure about your loyalty.

 

[Kyle Sun]

Why do you guys always think China will invade Taiwan only when China is ready?
You guys obviously don't understand the communist party.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Why are you so angry at them surrendering n joining China? Don't you love your motherland? You are telling me you are Chinese and yet here you seems to want a dusintegradis China. I am not sure about your loyalty.

He's not Chinese, he's just a Vietnamese Agent Orange mutant China took pity on and adopted - a stray, wretched, flea-bitten mongrel. Sad, really. If it weren't for American monstrosity he'd be happily swinging from the tree branches with the rest of his folk.

 

[Han Patriot]

He's not Chinese, he's just a Vietnamese Agent Orange mutant China took pity on and adopted - a stray, wretched, flea-bitten mongrel. Sad, really. If it weren't for American monstrosity he'd be happily swinging from the tree branches with the rest of his folk.

His mum is Sino-Vietnamese, I am not sure about his sympathies and loyalties. Non the less, he is a OK guy on the phone.

 

[Jlaw]

His mum is Sino-Vietnamese, I am not sure about his sympathies and loyalties. Non the less, he is a OK guy on the phone.

You talked to him on the phone?

 

[Han Patriot]

You talked to him on the phone?

Yup. He is from HK, but not 100% Chinese. Dad's Latino but mentality is Hongkie. I am OK with him as long as he doesn't advocate the destruction of China which I think he doesn't.

 

[Jlaw]

Yup. He is from HK, but not 100% Chinese. Dad's Latino but mentality is Hongkie. I am OK with him as long as he doesn't advocate the destruction of China which I think he doesn't.

He said he's a refugee from Vietnam

 

[Han Patriot]

He said he's a refugee from Vietnam

The mum is. He is too young to be refugee I think. Most Viet tefugees were ethnic Chinese but they were highly vietnamnized. Once you can't speak Chinese, it's hard to connect with China.

 

[Jlaw]

The mum is. He is too young to be refugee I think. Most Viet tefugees were ethnic Chinese but they were highly vietnamnized. Once you can't speak Chinese, it's hard to connect with China.

HK accepted alot of Viet refugees back in mid 80s. Gary was one of them

 

[sinait]

His mum is Sino-Vietnamese, I am not sure about his sympathies and loyalties. Non the less, he is a OK guy on the phone.

He thinks highly of China in his heart.
Why else he use China Flag here when he is a Spanish-Vietnamese mixed breed, 杂种.
He have to demonize China as part of his work for the US.

Sadly China have people like that working for the Japanese as well during WWII.
.

 

[nang2]

Am I underestimating China capability of fighting an insurgency? Don't know, I said what I said base on my own experience. And my experience is this, NOBODY IN THIS WORLD is ready to deal with insurgency. US military has been dealing with insurgency since 1960 since Vietnam war, from Vietnam to Philippine, to Bolivia to Afghanistan, to Grenada to Peru, to Cuba, to Iran, to Congo, to Iraq and back to Afghanistan. I mean, we fought in Afghanistan twice, dealing with pretty much the same people (albeit a few generation later) yet when I step foot in Afghanistan in 2005, I know nothing fighting an active insurgency when I first arrived.

Now you may think the US military is a failed force, well, that's your opinion, and if you think so, then name me one armed force that is more capable than the US military.

So, what make you think PLA, which have relatively little fighting experience, even less in insurgency warfare, have the capability to deal with one? On a wing and a prayer and start a war then hope everything is A-OK?

US has been dealing with insurgency, which is made up by non-Americans who speak completely different languages and have different cultures. This kind of task is very difficult and hard to predict. China, on the other hand, dealt with insurgency after 1949, which is mostly made up by Chinese who speak the same language and have the same culture. This is what I have been saying. The time when Chinese had to deal with insurgency that spoke a different language, like Uyghurs and Tibetans, it was much tougher. In case you have forgotten, Taiwanese speak the same language as Chinese and have the same cultural background.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

I don't believe Taiwanese soldiers will even fight. They don't crave martyrdom. They are not jihadists. Russia took Crimea without a single casualty. China would take Taiwan without a single casualty.