Why China isn’t ready to invade Taiwan – yet

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

And you need to ask yourself the difference between War in Donbass and Crimea annexation.

And then you need to ask why Ukrainian Force are fighting in Donbass, against the Russian.

Ukrainian army fight rebels. They don't dare fight Russian army. They won't die for nothing.

As for China and Taiwan. They are officially at war, not even a ceasefire like North Korea and South Korea. If China nukes Taiwan tomorrow, no one will be surprised.

 

[jhungary]

Ukrainian army fight rebels. They don't dare fight Russian army. They won't die for nothing.

lol. rebel, of course, everyone in Ukraine who dress like a Russian and speak like a Russian are Ukrainian rebel. There are no Russian in Ukraine, in fact, there are no Russian in Russia either, those are all Ukrainian Rebel. LOL Now you can go your merry way

 

[nang2]

Ukrainian army fight rebels. They don't dare fight Russian army. They won't die for nothing.

As for China and Taiwan. They are officially at war, not even a ceasefire like North Korea and South Korea. If China nukes Taiwan tomorrow, no one will be surprised.

I will be. You simply underestimate the traditional war power of China.

 

[nang2]

You probably can't find "the best deal" if you were to use troop on Taiwan. Because to use troop and not to use troop, that is a dilemma.

If China have to use troop to recover Taiwan, the Chinese are doing it because diplomatic measure failed, which mean Taiwanese are willing to fight for its independence or whatever (Most def not fighting for status quo) which mean in this case, there will be 2 wars. One for conventional invasion, and the other for Taiwan insurgency. Both will bleed Chinese military heavily. Especially the latter case

However, the only way China can expect a Taiwan Takeover without an insurgency would be when Taiwanese willing to be defeated militarily and not pursuit one. But then it comes back to the original dilemma, if Taiwanese resist and China have to use force, it meant the Taiwanese are not willing to let go of their identity, which mean if they are willing to do it after the military defeated, you would not have to use force in the first place, they would just merge with China via political mean anyway. Otherwise, any other case that follow would see China expecting an insurgency in Taiwan after they have defeated the Taiwanese Military in a set piece.

Oh, by the way, in case you have known this before, Taiwanese have a very interesting and powerful mind set, which permeates throughout their media. They firmly believe that Americans will come for rescue, should mainland China launch the attack. Their confidence in this belief is much stronger than Americans'. I am not sure they really want to fight the insurgency battles. It feels they are much more willing for Americans to fight the battle for them, because they are a democracy and Americans are defenders of democracy, aren't they?

 

[gambit]

nice rant mate, but it wont get you anywhere.

It made the point that this little incident is not indicative of the whole. Something only those who actually served in a military would understand. Somehow, I doubt YOU belong in that group.

The pictures speak a thousand words and thats exactly how the world saw your soldiers get hummiliated by less then $2 a day iranain coast guard.

Sure. The world saw Pearl Harbor, too. Then look what happened later.

no one here is talking about the strength of USAF vs Iranians. everyone knows there isnt even a comparision between the 2 armies.

Then those who refused to talk about the importance of airpower are fools.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Then those who refused to talk about the importance of airpower are fools.

China air power is top notch. This ain't the 90s anymore when America got F-15 and F-16 and China had J-8 and J-7.

Sure. The world saw Pearl Harbor, too. Then look what happened later.

And China is 12 times the size of Japan so what's your point?

 

[gambit]

China air power is top notch. This ain't the 90s anymore when America got F-15 and F-16 and China had J-8 and J-7.



And China is 12 times the size of Japan so what's your point?

At airshows and parades.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

At airshows and parades.

So is F-22 and F-35. Just airshow.

 

[jhungary]

Oh, by the way, in case you have known this before, Taiwanese have a very interesting and powerful mind set, which permeates throughout their media. They firmly believe that Americans will come for rescue, should mainland China launch the attack. Their confidence in this belief is much stronger than Americans'. I am not sure they really want to fight the insurgency battles. It feels they are much more willing for Americans to fight the battle for them, because they are a democracy and Americans are defenders of democracy, aren't they?

I can tell you this, Taiwan Army was trained with Insurgency and counter insurgency.

As I said, you can think of whatever you like, sitting in front of a computer when you are safely watch in front of a computer. On the other hand, put yourself in a warzone, when bullet start grazing your head, and your house/apartment were destroyed by tank and airstrike, then you come back and tell me if you want to fight.

I don't know about you, Sun Tzu in his art of war namely states never to underestimate your enemy, you are not just doing that, but also overestimate yourself, oh well, I guess that's alright, as I said, most likely you aren't going to spend 1 night and stand guard on a front line, but what the hey, right?

Fact my arse.

Fact my arse

 

[GHALIB]

War can't win Taiwan

 

[nang2]

I can tell you this, Taiwan Army was trained with Insurgency and counter insurgency.

As I said, you can think of whatever you like, sitting in front of a computer when you are safely watch in front of a computer. On the other hand, put yourself in a warzone, when bullet start grazing your head, and your house/apartment were destroyed by tank and airstrike, then you come back and tell me if you want to fight.

I don't know about you, Sun Tzu in his art of war namely states never to underestimate your enemy, you are not just doing that, but also overestimate yourself, oh well, I guess that's alright, as I said, most likely you aren't going to spend 1 night and stand guard on a front line, but what the hey, right?

So is Chinese army. Chinese army was born from insurgency. But that is not the point. The severity of insurgency is not much with how the army is trained but the willingness to fight in the people. If you tell me to watch about possible insurgency from Uighurs, I believe you. But with Taiwanese, my experience from interacting with their persons, their media and their society just doesn't click. Of course, you are right about the danger of underestimating the enemy.

 

[jhungary]

So is Chinese army. Chinese army was born from insurgency. But that is not the point. The severity of insurgency is not much with how the army is trained but the willingness to fight in the people. If you tell me to watch about possible insurgency from Uighurs, I believe you. But with Taiwanese, my experience from interacting with their persons, their media and their society just doesn't click. Of course, you are right about the danger of underestimating the enemy.

dude, fighting an insurgency and being one is two different concept. If and when China invade Taiwan, China will be FIGHITNG an insurgency not being one.

Again, you can come back to me when your home is destroy and your family is being killed by Chinese troop, you tell me then would you want to fight, because that is war going to bring to Taiwan. Too many wishful thinking part is not good for you. But as I said, who cares? You probably are not going to be anyone influential in Chinese politics nor would you be the one who pick up a weapon and holding down a fort, you can afford wishful thinking.

 

[Jlaw]

True. But what can you do about it anyway? Waiting longer may find yourself running out of better options. It is a tricky business for sure. Sometimes you just have to take the plunge and do it. There is a Chinese saying that says, if I may paraphrase, how you do it is up to you, whether you will succeed is up to God.

"God"=heavens

 

[nang2]

dude, fighting an insurgency and being one is two different concept. If and when China invade Taiwan, China will be FIGHITNG an insurgency not being one.

Again, you can come back to me when your home is destroy and your family is being killed by Chinese troop, you tell me then would you want to fight, because that is war going to bring to Taiwan. Too many wishful thinking part is not good for you. But as I said, who cares? You probably are not going to be anyone influential in Chinese politics nor would you be the one who pick up a weapon and holding down a fort, you can afford wishful thinking.

It will not be the first time China fighting an insurgency after 1949. I am getting an impression that you are either consciously or subconsciously underestimate the capability of Chinese army in fighting insurgency and trying to tell people that they will be novices in this business.

Usually, except those racist thugs, armies don't purposely destroy people's homes, unless there is a fight coming from those homes. When that happens, you probably already have an insurgency in hand.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

If and when China invade Taiwan, China will be FIGHITNG an insurgency not being one.

You overestimate insurgency. An insurgency can only survive if there is foreign backing, and access to backers borders. SAA conquered rebel parts and there is no insurgency because they control the border.