Why ageing China won’t overtake the US economy as the world’s biggest – now or in the future

[That Guy]

he is just an excuse to get things done...by the deep state in the us.

just like how imran Khan is just an excuse to go after the dissenters of the Pakistani deep state....

Khan Is as relevant as a free sample of hot dog in Poland in regards to the world geopolitics.

Holy shit, this is the stupidest thing I've read all week. It reeks of conspiracy theory.

 

[phancong]

These people are still parroting the same old BS western media has fed them for the last 30 years, and dreaming they would somehow reach the level China is today. Honestly, they need their collective IQ genetically modified so they can finally figure out as why China has been always so much ahead in the game.

Let them stuck in their stupidity believe India will achieve what China did in economic miracle in just over a decade. Even US now no longer supportive of outsourcing their manufacture to the 3rd world country and recently terminate the 400 millions dollars taxes exempt be on Indian export to the US. Indian failed to realize the time of capitalized on advanced nation's outsourcing manufacture jobs to the 3rd world nation on the downward trend because machine automation and the need for the developed nation's in the West to provide jobs to their population, the developed nations turned to the isolationist policy to protect their own economy and less nations for India to take advantage off to build up India manufacture industry.

 

[Ali Tariq]

he is just an excuse to get things done...by the deep state in the us.

just like how imran Khan is just an excuse to go after the dissenters of the Pakistani deep state....

Khan Is as relevant as a free sample of hot dog in Poland in regards to the world geopolitics.

@Dubious @AgNoStiC MuSliM @waz @The Eagle

 

[maximuswarrior]

Another feel good article.

he is just an excuse to get things done...by the deep state in the us.

just like how imran Khan is just an excuse to go after the dissenters of the Pakistani deep state....

Khan Is as relevant as a free sample of hot dog in Poland in regards to the world geopolitics.

Says this Modi poodle LOL

Imran Khan is your worst nightmare. LOL why don’t carry out a surgical strike in Pakistan to free Nawaz Sharif?

 

[antonius123]

Why ageing China won’t overtake the US economy as the world’s biggest – now or in the future

• 
  Growth trajectories must take into account that China is ageing faster than the US. The experiences of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea bear out the correlation between growth and demographics, and economists optimistic about China’s growth prospects should take note

In 2010, China replaced Japan as the world's second-largest economy. Many economists believe it is just a matter of time before China dethrones the United States as the world’s biggest economy – some have argued that it could happen before 2030.

They have cited the history of other Asian economies as evidence to back the claim. The nominal per capita gross domestic product of China was just a sixth of America’s in 2018 – a level similar to Japan in 1960, Taiwan in 1978 and South Korea in 1986. In the following two decades, the three Asian economies achieved annual growth rates of between 7 per cent and 8 per cent. As such, economists including Justin Lin Yifu, the former World Bank chief economist, have argued that China would go through a similar trajectory and the nation would be able to achieve a 6 per cent annual growth rate from now until the 2030s.

I beg to differ, however. These optimistic forecasts of China’s economic future neglect the country’s ageing population and its drag on growth. The younger an economy’s population structure, the stronger its vitality for economic innovation. As the median age rises and the proportion of the population aged 65 and over increases, so the economic growth rate could plummet.

In 1950, the median age was 22 in Japan and 30 in the US. Japan was younger than the United States and had higher economic growth. However, the average total fertility rate from 1951-2017 was 1.77 births per woman in Japan and 2.33 births in the US, which led to a population ageing faster in Japan than in the US.

Japan’s median age and the proportion aged over 65 surpassed the US’ in 1967 and 1992 respectively. Japan’s GDP growth has been lower than America’s since 1992 (excepting 2010). The size of Japan's nominal GDP rose from 8 per cent of the US’ GDP in 1960 to 71 per cent in 1995, and then fell to 24 per cent in 2018.

Taiwan and South Korea had similar experiences. In 1960, the median age was 20 in South Korea and 17 in Taiwan, versus 30 in the US. However, in 2018, it was four and three years older than the US’ respectively. The nominal GDP of Taiwan and South Korea was only 0.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent of the US GDP in 1960. It increased to 3.1 per cent for Taiwan and 7.8 per cent for South Korea in 2011, then faltered, and may gradually decrease in the future.

In 1980, China’s median age was 22, eight years younger than the US’. From 1980 to 2011, China's annual GDP growth averaged 10 per cent, faster than the US’ 2.7 per cent. The size of China's nominal GDP rose from 7 per cent of US GDP in 1980 to 49 per cent in 2011.

However, China's GDP growth slowed from 9.5 per cent in 2011 to 6.6 per cent
in 2018. The slowdown can be blamed on a variety of factors. The first and probably the most important factor is that China is getting older, partly thanks to Beijing’s ruthless one-child policy. In 2014, China’s median age had increased to 38, surpassing that of the United States.

According to the UN World Population Prospects, the US population will increase from 328 million in 2018 to 370 million in 2050.

The cultural traditions of mainland China are similar to those of Taiwan and South Korea. Average fertility rates from 2001 to 2018 were 1.14 in Taiwan and 1.18 in South Korea. If China is fortunate enough to stabilise its total fertility rate at 1.2, the total population will fall from 1.28 billion in 2018 to 1.08 billion in 2050. This decline will be accompanied by an ageing population structure. The proportion aged over 65 will rise from 12 per cent in 2018 to 22 per cent in 2033, and 33 per cent by 2050. In comparison, the proportion of those 65 and over in the US will rise from 16 per cent in 2018 to 21 per cent in 2033 and 23 per cent in 2050.

China’s median age is forecast to increase to 47 by 2033 and 56 in 2050. In the US, the median age will be 41 in 2033 and 44 in 2050. China’s working-age population aged 20-64 began to shrink in 2017, while the US working-age population will not reach its peak until 2050.

From the above, we can conclude that China's GDP growth may start to fall below the US’ in around 2033, when the proportion aged over 65 begins to exceed that of the US.

Assuming that China and the US will have GDP growth rates of 6.3 per cent and 3 per cent in 2019, and then fall to 2.2 per cent in 2033, the size of China's GDP, which was 66 per cent of the US GDP in 2018, will peak at 84 per cent in 2033.

Thus, it’s clear China's economy cannot exceed that of the United States.

Yi Fuxian is a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of Big Country with an Empty Nest

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insigh...hina-simply-cannot-overtake-us-economy-worlds

Advanced Automation and Robots in the 4th industry era can mitigate this issue, right? Or do you have argument why those wont help?

 

[That Guy]

Jesus..how on earth r you an "analyst" ...lol

it's kinda ironic....coming from a pakistani...

OBL in pakistan?.....omg a conspiracy by the eviiiil uS and the jews....

Polio vaccinations ? OMG ..A satanic plot to destroy the Pakistani poppulation

NaWazz sharifs left nut is slightly lower than his right? Omg it's a conspiracy by the cia and mossad...to destroy pakistan...

Pssshh please mate.. ..

Here is an Analysis for you.....I Think you are just trying to cover your beloved comrade from china......cause he doesn't seem to be able to form complete sentences in engrish...

Ps: did you know....that treudou...is secretly running a database on Pakistani Canadians by having moles inside the mosques

Are you just stupid, or do did you not read my comment properly?

I'm accusing you of spread false narratives that are akin to paranoid conspiracy theorists, not that I'm spreading them myself.

All you've done is spout nonsense without presenting any sort of logical argument or evidence.

@waz can you intervene here, please? This guy is clearly either a troll, or just stupid.

 

[rcrmj]

May be you are referring to those employees of Chinese companies who were forced to drink urine for not achieving sales target. It doesn't happen in India.

thats Indian, not anyone else`````poor funny deluded Indian ``I've been to India doing business with Indian for quite some times``you are fooling nobody, its a miserable country, fact

 

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Why ageing China won’t overtake the US economy as the world’s biggest – now or in the future

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insigh...hina-simply-cannot-overtake-us-economy-worlds

Commentary


China wins with soft power and in the heart of Rome! This, while the Soviet Union lost the Cold war by pitting the Eastern hemisphere with the Western one, symbolized by the Wall of Shame. China connects the two hemispheres with roads and infrastructures. Thus heading toward a position of global dominance!

“For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the supreme of excellence. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence.”

-Sun Tzu, "The Art of War", 512 BC
​

Pointless to resist. Greece was only the start as the weakest point in the Hadrian's Wall. Next to bow willingly before China's economic might will be the E.U. and the Northmen of Lutetia (Provincia Gallia), Londinium (Provincia Britannia) then Augusta Treverorum (Provincia Germania), Japan, and the U.S.!

The key factor to global world dominance lies in the demography, itself determined by the superficy of its controlled lands and the type of ecosystem. An exceptional natural hydrology, thanks to the highest mountainous plateau of Tibet, combined with a subtropical ecosystem that allows record agricultural ouptputs, up to four rice harvests per year!

Only with the largest population can a civilization spare enough specialists from its pool of peasantry, and from that elite, yield an even smaller number of meaningful geniuses.


Statistically, that is over 12'000 years of human recorded demographic history, China has always lead, second to none.


No wonder, as Rome was always lagging so far behind the Chinese Civilization over the past 12 millenia, and today's final acknowledgement of China as their leader, though belated, shows their awakening.

https://imgur.com/z5YzYgm

https://i.imgur.com/z5YzYgm.mp4 ; https://imgur.com/gallery/aOhIuEF ; https://themasites.pbl.nl/tridion/en/themasites/hyde/basicdrivingfactors/population/index-2.html
▲ 1. Population Through the Ages.
12'000 years of Population estimates are from the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE).




Do not forget that the U.S. will continue its beggar bowl's world tour, as long as it needs to import Rare Earth Elements (R.E.E.), only to stay afloat in the A.I. race, having exhausted its own reserve of R.E.E during the cold war with the U.S.S.R.

▲ 7. China as first world exporter of Rare Earth Elements.

Spoiler: Link

http://
คิม ไทยแลนด์ จบแค่ ม.3 เป็นเถ้าแก่ร้อยล้านก่อนจะอายุ40ปี
Published on Feb 9, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n1bTuH1B-A

▲ 8. DPRK is indeed very wealthy, and will never bow before such little beggar U.S.! (Look the badge:富).

▲ 9. The U.S. will continue its beggar bowl's world tour, as long as it needs to import Rare Earth Elements (R.E.E.), only to stay afloat in the A.I. race.


Even by securing all the world's remaining R.E.E. (120 millions tons), comprising Vietnam, Brazil, Russia and South Africa (BRIVS), the U.S. will still be outnumbered in term of number of supercomputers and outgunned in term of supercomputer performance.

The U.S. is no match for neither China's 44 millions tons nor North Korea's 216 millions tons. And time is running out, before its foreseeable inevitable final demise!

▲ 2. The Three Great Powers of the Next World Order: Pole Position for the PRC.

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

Commentary


China wins with soft power and in the heart of Rome! This, while the Soviet Union lost the Cold war by pitting the Eastern hemisphere with the Western one, symbolized by the Wall of Shame. China connects the two hemispheres with roads and infrastructures. Thus heading toward a position of global dominance!

“For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the supreme of excellence. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence.”

-Sun Tzu, "The Art of War", 512 BC
​

Pointless to resist. Greece was only the start as the weakest point in the Hadrian's Wall. Next to bow willingly before China's economic might will be the E.U. and the Northmen of Lutetia (Provincia Gallia), Londinium (Provincia Britannia) then Augusta Treverorum (Provincia Germania), Japan, and the U.S.!

The key factor to global world dominance lies in the demography, itself determined by the superficy of its controlled lands and the type of ecosystem. An exceptional natural hydrology, thanks to the highest mountainous plateau of Tibet, combined with a subtropical ecosystem that allows record agricultural ouptputs, up to four rice harvests per year!

Only with the largest population can a civilization spare enough specialists from its pool of peasantry, and from that elite, yield an even smaller number of meaningful geniuses.


Statistically, that is over 12'000 years of human recorded demographic history, China has always lead, second to none.


No wonder, as Rome was always lagging so far behind the Chinese Civilization over the past 12 millenia, and today's final acknowledgement of China as their leader, though belated, shows their awakening.

https://imgur.com/z5YzYgm

https://i.imgur.com/z5YzYgm.mp4 ; https://imgur.com/gallery/aOhIuEF ; https://themasites.pbl.nl/tridion/en/themasites/hyde/basicdrivingfactors/population/index-2.html
▲ 1. Population Through the Ages.
12'000 years of Population estimates are from the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE).




Do not forget that the U.S. will continue its beggar bowl's world tour, as long as it needs to import Rare Earth Elements (R.E.E.), only to stay afloat in the A.I. race, having exhausted its own reserve of R.E.E during the cold war with the U.S.S.R.

▲ 7. China as first world exporter of Rare Earth Elements.

Spoiler: Link

คิม ไทยแลนด์ จบแค่ ม.3 เป็นเถ้าแก่ร้อยล้านก่อนจะอายุ40ปี
Published on Feb 9, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n1bTuH1B-A

▲ 8. DPRK is indeed very wealthy, and will never bow before such little beggar U.S.! (Look the badge:富).

▲ 9. The U.S. will continue its beggar bowl's world tour, as long as it needs to import Rare Earth Elements (R.E.E.), only to stay afloat in the A.I. race.


Even by securing all the world's remaining R.E.E. (120 millions tons), comprising Vietnam, Brazil, Russia and South Africa (BRIVS), the U.S. will still be outnumbered in term of number of supercomputers and outgunned in term of supercomputer performance.

The U.S. is no match for neither China's 44 millions tons nor North Korea's 216 millions tons. And time is running out, before its foreseeable inevitable final demise!

▲ 2. The Three Great Powers of the Next World Order: Pole Position for the PRC.

Stop quoting me pussy ain’t nobody got time to read all that mess