Who is responsible for Economic Crisis in Pakistan?

[maximuswarrior]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1185165648512471040

https://twitter.com/x/status/1185165659547697152

https://twitter.com/x/status/1185165669152612354

The arm twisting by FATF won't work. What they really want from Pakistan is impossible. Pakistan is not going to negotiate on nuclear asssets and CPEC.

Putting Pak on blacklist will serve as the final nail in the coffin for mostly Western nations. I am sure it will impact Pak economy drastically, but this is also going to have consequences for many Western capitals who deal with Pakistan on many levels. First and foremost the Afghan war is going to be directly impacted by this atrocious action. The second most obvious impact will be that Pakistan will have even more freedom to work closely with regional and unfamiliar markets. Projects like CPEC will receive full priority since there are no other distractions. Pakistan is going to be forced to scramble and look for alternatives. Looking for non-Western markets is not such a bad thing for Pak.

 

[Zibago]

Get Votes.



How did Nawaz fully destroy the economy? Please explain. I want to experience the brightness & breadth of your intelect.

Artificially low exchange are good for the economy that we all agree yes so is a huge fiscal deficit and low tax base but who cares Mian ney Army ko gali di Mian hero hy

Thanks for a more reasoned post that what has become the norm.

You must be able to put things in perspective before you declare a verdict. For perspective, you have to know a bit about history. In context, your post seems heavy on superficial views.

Let me explain & provide some context:

During the first martial law (imposed by Ayub Khan), Pakistan joined CENTO & SEATO and effectively became a state aligned with US-led Western world as opposed to the Soviet bloc or a part of the non-aligned movement. This meant support for loans, military equipment & training support (F-86, artillery guns, Patton tanks, etc...), a bit of investment, etc... USA effectively subsidized Pakistan's military Capital Expenditure. Pakistan saw 6%+ growth for a few years, which was the so-called golden era that masked the dynamics that led to events of 1971.

During the second martial law, Pakistan was the front-line state in the cold-war. A lot of goodies, similar to the ones described above came Pakistan's way. After the difficult years (1971-1977) during which Bhutto implemented the disastrous policy of nationalization of private businesses, Pakistan again saw 6%+ growth. After Soviet withdrawal in 1988, Pakistan fell out of favor and was at the receiving end of sanctions (F-16 embargo, eg). The price of martial law was paid in form of immature politics by PPP & PML with incomplete tenures, conflicting policies, & interventions by Establishment.

During the 3rd martial law, Pakistan was the front-line state in WoT. Pakistan received investment, loans, CSF, etc... But this martial law gave Pakistan a really bad security situation, insurgency in Balochistan, biting energy scarcity & NRO. The price of this martial law was paid by the country in the shape of a very bad federal government stint by PPP and murder & mayhem at the hands of TTP. The only good thing that happened during PPP tenure was 18th amendment & subsequent NFC award. During this time Establishment pumped its support to create support for PTI - a process led unashamedly by Gen Shuja Pasha.

When PML-N came to power, it set itself the task of reviving the economy, ending rolling loadshedding, & improvement in law & order situation. It succeeded in the three sectors. During this time, however, it was beset by political instability engendered by PAT & PTI, both Establishment proxies. TLYR joined the fray in 2017 with Establishment's full support, which was very much visible during Faizabad dharna - Rangers refused to obey orders of the Interior minister, who in turn had been ordered by Islamabad High Court to remove the dharna. We also saw a Major General distributing Rs. 1,000 notes to the participants.

So you see my friend, you can not simple throw a few percentages up in the air and call it analysis. This is not analysis but display of programming that you have received over the years. Generally each civilian government left something good in its wake:

Purchase of Gwadar by PM Feroze Khan Noon in 50s
Constitution of 1956 by PM Chaudhry Muhammad Ali
Securing release of POWs by Bhutto in 1973
Constitution of 1973 by Bhutto
Launch of Atomic program by Bhutto
Benazir's government 1988-91 that reduced the rifts created in Sindh province
Policy of deregulation by NS government of 1991-1993
18th Amendment by PPP government in 2009 & new NFC award that gave provinces more resources

Let us look at what military governments left in their wake:

Abolishment of 1956 constitution in 1958
Joining of US-led Western Camp by joining CENTO & SEATO
Rigged elections in 1964
1962 'basic democracy' constitution based on laughable ideas of Ayub Khan, which was shown its worth by Gen Yahya Khan
The tragedy and break-up of Pakistan in 1971
90,000 POWs in Indian jails in 1971
Jihad policy, which saw ISI grow its role exponentially from 1978-87 (I have mixed feelings, but that is a separate debate - we see its long-term effects until today).
Kargil & its aftermath.
Sham referendum, PML-Q, & rigged elections in 2002.
Insurgency in Balochistan, starting from 2005.
Lack of a coherent energy policy during Mushy years that led to extreme energy starvation that killed small & medium industry in the long run.
Back-lash of WoT that is still visible & has started rising after having been largely subdued in 2015-16.
Patronage of non-state actors that has landed Pakistan in FATF grey list.

Your percentages are nothing when you compare the two lists.

If you still think that there is any comparison between civilian & martial governments, then you need to read some serious & impartial history.

Present PTI government is just a proxy that has not worked according to plan because the plan was flawed from the start. IK is blaming everyone left, right, & center, but the situation is actually out of control.

More later....

A party that has 2 crore votes is a proxy my oh my such a wonderful observation

 

[maximuswarrior]

people need to stop crying and give him 5 years and see what he was able to accomplish. Economy was on ventilator, I give credit to IK that he was able to get the money from friend countries to prevent the default. He was able to remove it from ventilator but there is a long road of recovery. It’s not going to be easy to create a sustainable economy.

5 years is not going to achieve major results. The economic carnage that Nawaz Sharif and Zardari left cannot be undone in 5 years. Remember that both took multiple turns to ravage and pile the debt. There is not a single economic indicator that was good ever since Nawaz Sharif and Zardari took turns. Realistically you need at least two terms of a leader who is dead serious and focused on stabilising Pakistan. That too will be a challange considering Pakistan is not only trying to undo economic carnage, but also fighting against FATF etc. There are quite a few stumble blocks. Not everyone is happy with Imran Khan's win including international actors because not everyone wants to see an economically stable Pakistan.

I find it beyond hilarious how the hypocritical Pak media and brainless Noora fanboys find the nerve to question a new government which inherited mass economic carnage. Suddenly these Noora fanboys are so worried about Pak economy. Ask the Noora's where their concern was when their beloved leader was looting and destroying Pakistan in its entirety. Back then the economy was on the backburner.

 

[Max]

Past 2 Govts, they destroyed our export industry instead of giving them insentives to compete with world.

If we don't punish economic traitors, we will face this issue again and again, we need more Secrunity on Govt Policies.

 

[Zibago]

Come out of the lie that the economy was on ventilator. Pick up any neutral 3rd party independent assessment of the country's economy in 2017, be it IMF, Moody's, Fitch, World Bank, ADB etc., and they all projected a positive and growing economy with indicators which were getting better all the time. All this while someone on a container made every attempt to derail the economy with each and every anti-Government tactic made available to him by the agencies. When PML weren't allowed 5 years, why should 5 years be allowed to this traitor?

It isnt exactly an out of the blue situation what we are facing now we were warned years ago
Growth led by consumption isnt exa
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1555270/2-balance-payments-crisis-making/?amp=1

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/f...ers-economic-growth-cost-180625090954388.html

 

[Mav3rick]

Its not PTI or N-League, its Pakistanis responsible for this situation.
We as a nation are corrupt. We can't progres unless we accept this fact.

You are correct. But were we all this corrupt in the 50's, 60's and 70's? If not then something changed the fabric of our honest society and that is what we need to find and eliminate. Maybe it is the fact that implementation and interpretation of LAW is different for the common and the elite.

 

[Zibago]

Past 2 Govts, they destroyed our export industry instead of giving them insentives to compete with world.

If we don't punish economic traitors, we will face this issue again and again, we need more Secrunity on Govt Policies.

Nawaz had low oil prices going for him still he couldnt bring in structural reforms in our economy

 

[Mav3rick]

It isnt exactly an out of the blue situation what we are facing now we were warned years ago
Growth led by consumption isnt exa
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1555270/2-balance-payments-crisis-making/?amp=1

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/f...ers-economic-growth-cost-180625090954388.html

Government's borrow all over the world to invest in projects. Most of the CPEC projects, 100+ power projects, road networks and other infrastructure was invested in by the PML Government and hence the massive borrowing; However, at the same time size of the economy grew. This is how things happen until you reach a parity where your exports start overtaking imports thereby reducing CFD and increasing FDI and then your economy stabilizes.

 

[Zibago]

Government's borrow all over the world to invest in projects. Most of the CPEC projects, 100+ power projects, road networks and other infrastructure was invested in by the PML Government and hence the massive borrowing; However, at the same time size of the economy grew. This is how things happen until you reach a parity where your exports start overtaking imports thereby reducing CFD and increasing FDI and then your economy stabilizes.

Without working on exports and taxation that model of growth is an acid bubble
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1281245/assessment-declining-trend-pakistans-exports/?amp=1

They feared pti too much in Punjab to bring in any solid reform in the economy and there we were wasting crucial years when the oil prices were down

That was the make or break moment for us and we blew it

The sharif era is too recent an era for our woke baes to lie about
https://www.journalismpakistan.com/Economic-performance-of-PML-N-government--2013-2018

 

[newb3e]

Geeennnraaaailllllll boysss!! very brave very pious and very manupilating!

 

[Mav3rick]

Without working on exports and taxation that model of growth is an acid bubble
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1281245/assessment-declining-trend-pakistans-exports/?amp=1

They feared pti too much in Punjab to bring in any solid reform in the economy and there we were wasting crucial years when the oil prices were down

That was the make or break moment for us and we blew it

The sharif era is too recent an era for our woke baes to lie about
https://www.journalismpakistan.com/Economic-performance-of-PML-N-government--2013-2018

It is not as simple as you put it. An export oriented economy requires a lot of land, skilled labour and cheap surplus energy; while we had the later 2, we were in acute shortage of energy even for our routine use let along to establish any new industry. This is why most of our existing at that time textile industry too shifted to Bangladesh and Vietnam. And this is why PML had to focus on energy generation on war footing. Today, we have surplus energy and we still have new power plants coming online (including the 2200MW Nuclear Power Plants at Karachi). The base is now set for us to establish industry; all we need to do is subsidize establishment of new industry with 25 years of tax break and give a lifeline to ailing industry with tax benefits and other economic support.

The investment, production, export, jobs etc., alone would be sufficient for our economy to take off. And in 25 years the industry would have established and matured and so the tax from these industries would become a big boost.

 

[maverick1977]

Come out of the lie that the economy was on ventilator. Pick up any neutral 3rd party independent assessment of the country's economy in 2017, be it IMF, Moody's, Fitch, World Bank, ADB etc., and they all projected a positive and growing economy with indicators which were getting better all the time. All this while someone on a container made every attempt to derail the economy with each and every anti-Government tactic made available to him by the agencies. When PML weren't allowed 5 years, why should 5 years be allowed to this traitor?

sir ! you are an epic nonsensical person.

 

[Max]

It isnt exactly an out of the blue situation what we are facing now we were warned years ago
Growth led by consumption isnt exa
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1555270/2-balance-payments-crisis-making/?amp=1

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/f...ers-economic-growth-cost-180625090954388.html

Oil prices are still very low compared to PPP era, I hope PTI bring changes and develop Pakistan as strong, attractive manufacturing hub.

 

[python-000]

PPP & PMLN No doubt about it...

 

[Crusher]

Artificially low exchange are good for the economy that we all agree yes so is a huge fiscal deficit and low tax base but who cares Mian ney Army ko gali di Mian hero hy


A party that has 2 crore votes is a proxy my oh my such a wonderful observation

At last you have started understanding the economy the right way, yes in Nawaja/Zaradari/Mushi times the rupee was overvalued to "subsidize" imports which were registering as "growth" since growth merely means "increase of products and services in an economy", but it was done by continuously supplying "borrowed dollars" in the open market for importers to go on an "import frenzy" but in the mean time increasing the trade and current account deficits and off course debt to "unbearable" levels over each successive year. If they (PMLN/PPP) come back into power they will do the same sh1t again because that is the only "sh1tty economic model" that they are expert of. The growth that is only inflated/created by ever increasing imports is NOT genuine and sustainable growth at all, we need to tell these thick-heads of PMLN/PPP/Mushi lovers who don't understand the "intricacies of the economy". Growth (increase of yearly available products/services in an economy) is sustainable only when the economy produces the bulk of the products/services locally within the country and using "imports" mostly as "raw materials" to achieve the manufacturing/production of those products/services.