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Who is responsible for Economic Crisis in Pakistan?

Bangladesh
Pakistan is millions time better than Bangladesh proof is millions of illegal Banglais living in Pakistan
Army didn't force Altaf Hussain to kill people
Zia ul haq created Nawaz Sharif but he is not responsible for his corruption
Father is not responsible for son's crimes
Zia was father and ganja son
 
How come Mushy 'left no deficit'?
1. Post 9/11 lots of worried Pakistanis bought property in Pakistan, thus contributing to an improvement in balance of Payments. Incidentally this created a property bubble that went bust in 2005.
2. Mushy encashed WoT, Pakistan got CSF payments. These sources dried up after OBL raid.
3. The worst impact of WoT via TTP happened during PPP years & two years of PML-N rule. No investment came due to bad press, bad perception of Pakistan as an unfavorable investment destination, & bad growth figures.

Perhaps now you would understand why Mushy's regime 'looks' better in contrast.

PPP left lower deficit, yes. But look at the growth figures, energy situation, investment climate, & perception of corruption (TI index). PPP foolishly thought that Thar coal would be the answer to all energy woes and could not get any project going. With little infrastructure investment there was no reason for deficit to increase beyond regular consumption.

PML-N knew where the bottle-necks were and set upon addressing them. The most difficult one was installation of energy projects, without which absolutely no long-term growth could be had, no export could improve, & nobody would consider Pakistan as a worthwhile investment destination. CPEC was responsible for a lot of the deficit figures. But with deficit, we also saw fast improvement in GDP growth, improvement in FDI, & improvement in sentiment. Where PML-N went wrong was that PRS should have begun to depreciate against USD in late 2016 to control ballooning of balance of payments deficit. PML-N held off on that because Services sector (Retail in particular) was the highest contributor to GDP growth. In retrospect, it was a mistake. In 2017 we saw a great deal of instability and resultant inertia from PML-N. Only in late 2017 did PML-N started corrective measures, but it was a bit late by then. However, in FY 2017-18 Pakistan had the highest GDP growth. Remember that every single percent of growth means creation of around 4 Billion USD worth of wealth and positive perception. In 2017-18 Pakistan could have encashed the growth in shape of FDI and covered part of the deficit, but the dharna instability & political interference from Establishment scared off FDI and the momentum was lost. PML-N was not responsible for this instability. Establishment & PTI were on same page and play Khatam-e-Nabuwwat card against the sitting government in every way possible. Do you remember TLYR's Faizabad dharna, where Punjab Rangers refused to obey government's orders? I remember it very very well. That was the time when GDP growth's coffin got nailed.

I have conclusively proved that your statement was absolutely wrong, biased, & based on only balance of payment figures. You have totally ignored the factors that ensured that fruits of deficit spending were lost. You have made absolutely no reference to the disastrous handling of economy by PTI's government. You have totally ignored the role of FDI that shrunk very rapidly in 2018 & 2019; this in particular is the proverbial elephant in the room that newbie faux economists do not know about.

I could go on, but I think you need time to digest the above information.

Just to summarize:

Look at CPEC investment
Look at improved growth figures
Look at FDI improvement & then drastic shrinkage
Look at the role of Services sector that grew due to PRS:USD exchange rate stability
Look at the level of your ignorance. This last one is most important. Now watch PTI flail, lash-out, & fail. So much for effing tabdeeli & its ignorant supporters.



You need an education.



Your mind is playing tricks on you because the cognitive dissonance is too much for you. You should have questioned PTI & Establishment propaganda a bit while it was being fed to you.

Excellent analysis. But I have reservations on the current PKR:USD exchange rate, PKR has been depreciated too much and too quickly, it should only have been done after establishment of a decent sized export oriented infrastructure and industry.

Thanks for a more reasoned post that what has become the norm.

You must be able to put things in perspective before you declare a verdict. For perspective, you have to know a bit about history. In context, your post seems heavy on superficial views.

Let me explain & provide some context:

During the first martial law (imposed by Ayub Khan), Pakistan joined CENTO & SEATO and effectively became a state aligned with US-led Western world as opposed to the Soviet bloc or a part of the non-aligned movement. This meant support for loans, military equipment & training support (F-86, artillery guns, Patton tanks, etc...), a bit of investment, etc... USA effectively subsidized Pakistan's military Capital Expenditure. Pakistan saw 6%+ growth for a few years, which was the so-called golden era that masked the dynamics that led to events of 1971.

During the second martial law, Pakistan was the front-line state in the cold-war. A lot of goodies, similar to the ones described above came Pakistan's way. After the difficult years (1971-1977) during which Bhutto implemented the disastrous policy of nationalization of private businesses, Pakistan again saw 6%+ growth. After Soviet withdrawal in 1988, Pakistan fell out of favor and was at the receiving end of sanctions (F-16 embargo, eg). The price of martial law was paid in form of immature politics by PPP & PML with incomplete tenures, conflicting policies, & interventions by Establishment.

During the 3rd martial law, Pakistan was the front-line state in WoT. Pakistan received investment, loans, CSF, etc... But this martial law gave Pakistan a really bad security situation, insurgency in Balochistan, biting energy scarcity & NRO. The price of this martial law was paid by the country in the shape of a very bad federal government stint by PPP and murder & mayhem at the hands of TTP. The only good thing that happened during PPP tenure was 18th amendment & subsequent NFC award. During this time Establishment pumped its support to create support for PTI - a process led unashamedly by Gen Shuja Pasha.

When PML-N came to power, it set itself the task of reviving the economy, ending rolling loadshedding, & improvement in law & order situation. It succeeded in the three sectors. During this time, however, it was beset by political instability engendered by PAT & PTI, both Establishment proxies. TLYR joined the fray in 2017 with Establishment's full support, which was very much visible during Faizabad dharna - Rangers refused to obey orders of the Interior minister, who in turn had been ordered by Islamabad High Court to remove the dharna. We also saw a Major General distributing Rs. 1,000 notes to the participants.

So you see my friend, you can not simple throw a few percentages up in the air and call it analysis. This is not analysis but display of programming that you have received over the years. Generally each civilian government left something good in its wake:

Purchase of Gwadar by PM Feroze Khan Noon in 50s
Constitution of 1956 by PM Chaudhry Muhammad Ali
Securing release of POWs by Bhutto in 1973
Constitution of 1973 by Bhutto
Launch of Atomic program by Bhutto
Benazir's government 1988-91 that reduced the rifts created in Sindh province
Policy of deregulation by NS government of 1991-1993
18th Amendment by PPP government in 2009 & new NFC award that gave provinces more resources

Let us look at what military governments left in their wake:

Abolishment of 1956 constitution in 1958
Joining of US-led Western Camp by joining CENTO & SEATO
Rigged elections in 1964
1962 'basic democracy' constitution based on laughable ideas of Ayub Khan, which was shown its worth by Gen Yahya Khan
The tragedy and break-up of Pakistan in 1971
90,000 POWs in Indian jails in 1971
Jihad policy, which saw ISI grow its role exponentially from 1978-87 (I have mixed feelings, but that is a separate debate - we see its long-term effects until today).
Kargil & its aftermath.
Sham referendum, PML-Q, & rigged elections in 2002.
Insurgency in Balochistan, starting from 2005.
Lack of a coherent energy policy during Mushy years that led to extreme energy starvation that killed small & medium industry in the long run.
Back-lash of WoT that is still visible & has started rising after having been largely subdued in 2015-16.
Patronage of non-state actors that has landed Pakistan in FATF grey list.

Your percentages are nothing when you compare the two lists.

If you still think that there is any comparison between civilian & martial governments, then you need to read some serious & impartial history.

Present PTI government is just a proxy that has not worked according to plan because the plan was flawed from the start. IK is blaming everyone left, right, & center, but the situation is actually out of control.

More later....

Blame must be on the Military for not having done the homework before gifting the Governance to Imran Khan. He had no team, no vision, no direction and quite possibly no intention. His over-inflated ego cannot understand right from wrong which is why he has posted his chamchas and financiers to all the important Government positions, many without even contesting elections.
 
Excellent analysis. But I have reservations on the current PKR:USD exchange rate, PKR has been depreciated too much and too quickly, it should only have been done after establishment of a decent sized export oriented infrastructure and industry.



Blame must be on the Military for not having done the homework before gifting the Governance to Imran Khan. He had no team, no vision, no direction and quite possibly no intention. His over-inflated ego cannot understand right from wrong which is why he has posted his chamchas and financiers to all the important Government positions, many without even contesting elections.

people need to stop crying and give him 5 years and see what he was able to accomplish. Economy was on ventilator, I give credit to IK that he was able to get the money from friend countries to prevent the default. He was able to remove it from ventilator but there is a long road of recovery. It’s not going to be easy to create a sustainable economy.
 
Thanks for a more reasoned post that what has become the norm.

You must be able to put things in perspective before you declare a verdict. For perspective, you have to know a bit about history. In context, your post seems heavy on superficial views.

Let me explain & provide some context:

During the first martial law (imposed by Ayub Khan), Pakistan joined CENTO & SEATO and effectively became a state aligned with US-led Western world as opposed to the Soviet bloc or a part of the non-aligned movement. This meant support for loans, military equipment & training support (F-86, artillery guns, Patton tanks, etc...), a bit of investment, etc... USA effectively subsidized Pakistan's military Capital Expenditure. Pakistan saw 6%+ growth for a few years, which was the so-called golden era that masked the dynamics that led to events of 1971.

During the second martial law, Pakistan was the front-line state in the cold-war. A lot of goodies, similar to the ones described above came Pakistan's way. After the difficult years (1971-1977) during which Bhutto implemented the disastrous policy of nationalization of private businesses, Pakistan again saw 6%+ growth. After Soviet withdrawal in 1988, Pakistan fell out of favor and was at the receiving end of sanctions (F-16 embargo, eg). The price of martial law was paid in form of immature politics by PPP & PML with incomplete tenures, conflicting policies, & interventions by Establishment.

During the 3rd martial law, Pakistan was the front-line state in WoT. Pakistan received investment, loans, CSF, etc... But this martial law gave Pakistan a really bad security situation, insurgency in Balochistan, biting energy scarcity & NRO. The price of this martial law was paid by the country in the shape of a very bad federal government stint by PPP and murder & mayhem at the hands of TTP. The only good thing that happened during PPP tenure was 18th amendment & subsequent NFC award. During this time Establishment pumped its support to create support for PTI - a process led unashamedly by Gen Shuja Pasha.

When PML-N came to power, it set itself the task of reviving the economy, ending rolling loadshedding, & improvement in law & order situation. It succeeded in the three sectors. During this time, however, it was beset by political instability engendered by PAT & PTI, both Establishment proxies. TLYR joined the fray in 2017 with Establishment's full support, which was very much visible during Faizabad dharna - Rangers refused to obey orders of the Interior minister, who in turn had been ordered by Islamabad High Court to remove the dharna. We also saw a Major General distributing Rs. 1,000 notes to the participants.

So you see my friend, you can not simple throw a few percentages up in the air and call it analysis. This is not analysis but display of programming that you have received over the years. Generally each civilian government left something good in its wake:

Purchase of Gwadar by PM Feroze Khan Noon in 50s
Constitution of 1956 by PM Chaudhry Muhammad Ali
Securing release of POWs by Bhutto in 1973
Constitution of 1973 by Bhutto
Launch of Atomic program by Bhutto
Benazir's government 1988-91 that reduced the rifts created in Sindh province
Policy of deregulation by NS government of 1991-1993
18th Amendment by PPP government in 2009 & new NFC award that gave provinces more resources

Let us look at what military governments left in their wake:

Abolishment of 1956 constitution in 1958
Joining of US-led Western Camp by joining CENTO & SEATO
Rigged elections in 1964
1962 'basic democracy' constitution based on laughable ideas of Ayub Khan, which was shown its worth by Gen Yahya Khan
The tragedy and break-up of Pakistan in 1971
90,000 POWs in Indian jails in 1971
Jihad policy, which saw ISI grow its role exponentially from 1978-87 (I have mixed feelings, but that is a separate debate - we see its long-term effects until today).
Kargil & its aftermath.
Sham referendum, PML-Q, & rigged elections in 2002.
Insurgency in Balochistan, starting from 2005.
Lack of a coherent energy policy during Mushy years that led to extreme energy starvation that killed small & medium industry in the long run.
Back-lash of WoT that is still visible & has started rising after having been largely subdued in 2015-16.
Patronage of non-state actors that has landed Pakistan in FATF grey list.

Your percentages are nothing when you compare the two lists.

If you still think that there is any comparison between civilian & martial governments, then you need to read some serious & impartial history.

Present PTI government is just a proxy that has not worked according to plan because the plan was flawed from the start. IK is blaming everyone left, right, & center, but the situation is actually out of control.

More later....

The data which I shared was based on historical Govt's & dictatorship Pakistan had, and in response you are me history's lesson (who did what). It seems to me that you are comparing oranges with apples.

In your rampling post you didnt answer a simple question, if Army and & establishment are the reason for Pakistan's hopeless economic situation and crisis why civil Govt's went to get loans more than three times than dictators?

More to the point, if Army/establishment and IK are the root cause of Pakistan's woes than whats the resolution? PML-N or PPP, who went to get loans 14 times?

From your post I can also see that you are praising PML-N. Lets take a look at their performance. When they won 2013 general elections the only good, cognet step which I noticed was decrease in electricity load shedding. War on Terror & law and order situation was improved, specially in Karachi, however, it wasnt because of PML-N and Nawaz. It occurred due to agencies, establishment and Army, therefore I wouldnt give this credit to PML- & Nawaz.

When PML-N was at the helm, it did not give foreign affairs the importance it warranted, can you tell me why? Why Nawaz was reluctant to look into the eye of India and Modi if he was so brave?

This PTI Govt and Khan are committed to maximize the tax bracket, for which they have made amendments. Please enlighten me why Nawaz, Dar and PML-N did not make amendments to income tax laws? Why they allowed powerful tax evading lobbyists to continue tax evasion? Had they done something about it, their government wouldve been able to collect revenue for development projects, however it didnt happen, which concomitantly slowing economic growth.

Furthermore, in the economic sector, Ishaq Dar artificially controlled the dollar by taking out loans and stockpiling foreign reserves. This damaged the value of the Pakistani Rupee as well as the export sector. The PML-N also failed to increase either exports or foreign reserves, can you please elaborate the rational behind these policies of Nawaz and PML-N?

PML-N and Nawaz didn't appoint a foreign minister which led to various setbacks in international relations. They neither focused on boosting tourism in the country nor did it promote trade with neighbouring countries, why?

The PML-N also failed to undertake agricultural reforms or tax large landlords. It did not provide much needed subsidies to the agricultural sector either. Can you please enlighten me thought process behind it?

The gas pipeline was agreement signed with Iran during PPP era was also shelved, resulting in Pakistan being deprived of cheap gas. Instead, the PML-N decided to purchase expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) which has caused foreign reserves to plummet. What was the reason behind this shady decision?

Last but not the least, why PML-N didnt heed towards upcoming water crisis? Over 40 MAF of water is going into the sea and is being wasted. The Kalabagh Dam and the Diamer-Basha Dam have a capacity of 6.5 and 8.5 MAF of water storage, respectively. But the Party did not pay attention to these hydro power plant projects, why?
 
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Everyone knows the answer to that............even patwaris know but they choose to divert the blame towards PTI because of their ulterior motives
Its not PTI or N-League, its Pakistanis responsible for this situation.
We as a nation are corrupt. We can't progres unless we accept this fact.
 
IMF projection of Pakistan’s economy compared to India and Bangladesh .
https://wsj.com/articles/the-middle-class-person-is-dying-pakistans-tax-push-is-deflating-its-leaders-political-base-11571313603

EHKkchgWoAAm19w
 
..........................
Fazlu: pakka Army man, and even now I'm sure hes supported at some level by the same.

So let's all remember who is actually responsible. The likes of NS and Zardari and IK are just pawns. And in the words of IK - "umpire ki ungli", controls them all.

I am sure that a "crack" has started appearing within the "establishment" and this is NOT a new phenomenon, it has happened many times before too. Some sections of establishment are definitely at logger heads with the other sections of the establishment and Molvi Fazl's announcement of "azadi march" against Imran Khan/PTI is one of the manifestations of this "developing crack within the establishment".
 
every asshole politician who started with kalabagh dam and we got IPPs.. led to expensive electricity, hence we lost exports.. most of the asshole starting 88 till 2018 should be hanged
 
Very good posts @Chak Bamu , you have put considerable time into them and it was a pleasure to read (I have jotted down some stuff from them I didnt know that I shall look up for my interest later).

I do wish PDF returns to its former era of lot more qualitative posts like yours...it is sorely missed now.
 
people need to stop crying and give him 5 years and see what he was able to accomplish. Economy was on ventilator, I give credit to IK that he was able to get the money from friend countries to prevent the default. He was able to remove it from ventilator but there is a long road of recovery. It’s not going to be easy to create a sustainable economy.

Come out of the lie that the economy was on ventilator. Pick up any neutral 3rd party independent assessment of the country's economy in 2017, be it IMF, Moody's, Fitch, World Bank, ADB etc., and they all projected a positive and growing economy with indicators which were getting better all the time. All this while someone on a container made every attempt to derail the economy with each and every anti-Government tactic made available to him by the agencies. When PML weren't allowed 5 years, why should 5 years be allowed to this traitor?
 
Please do tell what everyone knows. I, for some reason, do not know the obvious. Do educate us lesser mortals.

He already did. There is no question about PML-N and PPP taking turns and destroying Pak economy.

I wonder why Ishaq Dar is still hiding in Britain?
 

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