Which will grow faster: India or Indonesia? (The Economist)

[CallSignMaverick]

Hopefully we too find some oil near our Andaman & Nicobar islands.

We did find new oil discoveries off the Mumbai coast this week.

 

[FuturePAF]

Adjustment is made to make the calculation based on the reality.

We will see real figure for Q1 2023 two weeks from now...........

In an earlier post you said this quarter’s goal will be important for understanding india’s future growth. What should we extrapolate if the growth is at certain percentages? For example, Below 5%, 5-6%, 6+%

Is this an indication of a potential likely ceiling for their growth rate?

 

[Indos]

In an earlier post you said this quarter’s goal will be important for understanding india’s future growth. What should we extrapolate if the growth is at certain percentages? For example, Below 5%, 5-6%, 6+%

Is this an indication of a potential likely ceiling for their growth rate?

According to me, Indian Q1 2023 economic growth will not likely be too different with their Q4 2022 which is only around 4.5 %.

I have explained many times here that previous high growth in India economy is more related to low base figure generated during Covid 19 period.

India economic growth has already been in decline mode since 2019 (Before Covid)

We just need to wait for the real figure to come out about one or two weeks from now to confirm which projections is the nearest to the reality

 

[FuturePAF]

According to me, Indian Q1 2023 economic growth will not likely be too different with their Q4 2022 which is only around 4.5 %.

I have explained many times here that previous high growth in India economy is more related to low base figure generated during Covid 19 period.

India economic growth has already been in decline mode since 2019 (Before Covid)

We just need to wait for the real figure to come out about one or two weeks from now to confirm which projections is the nearest to the reality

What would a sub-5% growth in Q1 2023 imply for long term Indian growth in your opinion?

I know they need at least 6-7% growth if they hope to generate even the minimum number of jobs for most of the people entering the labor market.

Also, FDI is harder to come by, so if they show poorly in growth numbers, they may not get the FDI they need, and places like Mexico or ASEAN nations may absorb more of the limited FDI.

 

[CallSignMaverick]

India's forex reserves hit $600 billion

India's forex reserves edge towards $600 billion, hit near 1-year high By Reuters

India's forex reserves edge towards $600 billion, hit near 1-year high

www.investing.com

According to me, Indian Q1 2023 economic growth will not likely be too different with their Q4 2022 which is only around 4.5 %.

I have explained many times here that previous high growth in India economy is more related to low base figure generated during Covid 19 period.

India economic growth has already been in decline mode since 2019 (Before Covid)

We just need to wait for the real figure to come out about one or two weeks from now to confirm which projections is the nearest to the reality

RBI says India's GDP growth in 2023-24 will be 6.5%

India GDP growth FY24: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das optimistic about economy growing close to 6.5% during 2023-24 - CNBC TV18

The RBI governor said that the central bank stands by its FY24 GDP growth forecast of 6.5 percent, even as some global agencies, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, have projected lower growth rates

www.cnbctv18.com

UN says India will grow at 6.7% next year.

India to grow 6.7% in 2024, remain one of the few 'bright spots': UN report

While most countries across the globe have entered a slow recession, the Indian economy is expected to grow by 6.7 per cent in the calendar year 2024, emerging as one of the few bright spots, a new UN report has revealed. The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2023 report...

www.wionews.com

 

[CallSignMaverick]

India's exports growth is also faster, the graph shows India at $679 bn exports for 2021, in 2022 we did $776 billion in exports and this year it is expected to cross $900 billion and next year it is expected to touch $1 trillion.

PLI Schemes will play a big role

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659514409256120321

 

[migflug]

Who is doing the exploratory drilling in Andaman and Nicobar Islands areas ?

This Pertamina founding is not in Andaman and Nicobar, but in Nort Sumatra, inside Malacca Strait.

For Indonesia oil and gas founding in near Andaman and Nicobar Island, the founder is Premier Oil from England, mostly they find Gas there

No I am just hoping we find some oil there as they are in the same subduction zone of Indo-Australian plate, where Oils are usually found around the world. Just like you guys found it near northern Sumatra.
North Sumatra(Aceh) and Nicobar are just 150 KMs apart.

We did find new oil discoveries off the Mumbai coast this week.

Not new discovery, just new oil blocks in same oil field

 

[Indos]

No I am just hoping we find some oil there as they are in the same subduction zone of Indo-Australian plate, where Oils are usually found around the world. Just like you guys found it near northern Sumatra.
North Sumatra(Aceh) and Nicobar are just 150 KMs apart.

North Sumatra province is not the same with Aceh province. North Sumatra province capital is Medan, largest city in Sumatra Island while Aceh Province capital is Banda Aceh. Both provinces though close to each other.

 

[Indos]

India's forex reserves hit $600 billion

India's forex reserves edge towards $600 billion, hit near 1-year high By Reuters

India's forex reserves edge towards $600 billion, hit near 1-year high

www.investing.com

RBI says India's GDP growth in 2023-24 will be 6.5%

India GDP growth FY24: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das optimistic about economy growing close to 6.5% during 2023-24 - CNBC TV18

The RBI governor said that the central bank stands by its FY24 GDP growth forecast of 6.5 percent, even as some global agencies, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, have projected lower growth rates

www.cnbctv18.com

UN says India will grow at 6.7% next year.

India to grow 6.7% in 2024, remain one of the few 'bright spots': UN report

While most countries across the globe have entered a slow recession, the Indian economy is expected to grow by 6.7 per cent in the calendar year 2024, emerging as one of the few bright spots, a new UN report has revealed. The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2023 report...

www.wionews.com

Projection is just a projection.

Indian economic projection has been famous as too optimist from real figure that later will come out.

Better wait about 1 week from now where early estimate close to real figure will be announced by your Central Bank.

What would a sub-5% growth in Q1 2023 imply for long term Indian growth in your opinion?

It means their economy will keep growing, but not likely as fast as they are expecting and hope.

 

[Fish]

Depends on who manages to offer the cheapest labor to the Western corporate world. The West doesn't care about politics, economy, climate, or environment of these countries. The main goal is eking their way into the juicy pie of western consumerism with as big profit margins as possible.

Indonesia is already famous (or rather infamous) for its sweat shops, so they've a head start in that regard. On the other hand, India has a steady 'supply' of fresh humans who are more than willing to work for peanuts.

I guess it all boils down to desperateness in these countries. The desperate the people, the cheaper the labor, the higher the profits. It's that simple, really.

As for so called "economic prosperity" of these countries, I rather doubt it'll lift their poverty. And don't believe in all those claims made by Chinese Govt. about the so called "0% poverty". Anyone earning more than $2.3 a day is 'rolling in riches' in their book, heh!

Personally, we'll only see more billionaires popping out of these two countries and that'd be the extent of it. The middle-class is effed globally, all thanks to the corporate mafia. And the dawn of A.I will do nothing but eradicate more white collar jobs.

Sad but true.

 

[Redbeanpaste]

Every economy will eventually rise to the level of its society.

Both countries have modernizing societies, however, both also seem to have a portion of society that would like to go backwards into some perceived golden age or religious purity.

Indonesian business as far as I know is mainly run by Chinese origin born in Indonesia while the native population run the government. In the long term this is a friction point.

Indian economy is run by native Indian born. They seem to be very good at tech and have a " civilizational view" so that may in the long term give them an edge.

Pakistan is mostly confused and large sections of society has moved backwards and it shows. It would be easiest to tap into the Indian growth story but I think most of us find it too bitter a pill and would prefer an "honorable death" .

 

[CallSignMaverick]

Indian economic projection has been famous as too optimist from real figure that later will come out.

Better wait about 1 week from now where early estimate close to real figure will be announced by your Central Bank.

Advanced estimates state our GDP grew 7% in real terms in 2022-23. And it'll end on a similar note in 2023-24 as well.

 

[Indos]

Every economy will eventually rise to the level of its society.

Both countries have modernizing societies, however, both also seem to have a portion of society that would like to go backwards into some perceived golden age or religious purity.

Indonesian business as far as I know is mainly run by Chinese origin born in Indonesia while the native population run the government. In the long term this is a friction point.

Indian economy is run by native Indian born. They seem to be very good at tech and have a " civilizational view" so that may in the long term give them an edge.

Pakistan is mostly confused and large sections of society has moved backwards and it shows. It would be easiest to tap into the Indian growth story but I think most of us find it too bitter a pill and would prefer an "honorable death" .

Indonesian business is divided into 2 parts. Domestic Business and FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). The composition between Domestic Business Investement with FDI is equal where for 2022 the FDI is larger than domestic Investment.

Current conglomeration from native can be seen on Bakrie Group, Indika Energy, Medco Energy, Kalla Group (Bukaka), Media Group, CT Corp (Trans Corp), Gobel group, Samudera Indonesia Group and so on.

Biggest IPO in Indonesian stock market history (1.5 billion USD) is actually owned by Bukalapak where the founder is native, Ahmad Zaky. Gojek founder, Nadiem Makariem, is basically both native and Arab ethnic by blood. Chairul Tanjung, native from Sumatra, is the main owner of CT Corp and currently he is the third richest Indonesian.

Richest woman in Indonesia is actually native and Muslim.

Native Indonesian and Chinese Indonesians are also teaming up building a successful company. PT Saratoga, whose founders are Edwin Surdjaja and Sandiaga Uno, is one of the example

State owned enterprises (SOE) asset is half of Indonesian GDP at 1.2 trillion USD (2021)

Indonesia also has big SOE companies where the asset is half of Indonesian GDP (1.2 trillion USD).

SME contributes around 61 percent of Indonesian GDP

But dont just see it in big sector business, majority of GDP in Indonesia is produced by its micro, small, and medium size companies where it is dominated by native population. They create 61 % of GDP and 97 % of work force.

Women play important role in family, state economy: Ministry

Women play a crucial role in ensuring the resilience of the nation’s families and the country's economy, the Cooperatives and SMEs Ministry ...

en.antaranews.com

 

[Indos]

Indonesia State Owned Enterprises is profitable and contribute around 80 billion USD to Government earning in 2020 until Q3 2022.

Kontribusi BUMN ke Pendapatan Negara Rp 1.198 T

Pajak.com. Kinerja positif ini turut meningkatkan kontribusi BUMN ke pendapatan negara Rp 1.198 T (2020 hingga kuartal III-2022).

www.pajak.com

 

[CallSignMaverick]

Over the next decade, India could witness investment worth up to $23 billion for data centre capex investment as an infrastructure asset.

These investments are propelled by the rapid growth in data consumption and storage. The government's focus on data localisation and the demand for high bandwidth, driven by the launch of 5G, further contribute to the investment trend.

Real assets investments in data centers are projected to grow significantly, according to a report by investment banking firm, Avendus Capital, reports the Mint.

With an annual growth rate of 40 per cent, the segment is expected to reach 1,700 MW capacity by 2025, backed by over $5 billion investment.

Developers anticipate that the demand for data centres will exceed 3,000 MW, which is nearly four times the installed capacity of 800 MW in 2022.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659500322644201477

A total of over USD 2.3 bn in investments are expected over the next 2 – 5 years, and more than USD 0.4 bn of investment is expected during 2020-2023 period. The report also states that ~12,000 rooms are likely to be added in 2023, and the number of rooms is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~3.3% by 2025.

Investments into Indian hospitality to exceed USD 2.3 bn over next 2-5 years

May 17, 2023 – CBRE South Asia, on Wednesday announced the findings of its first-ever hospitality report, ‘Indian Hospitality Sector: On a Comeback Trail’. The report highlights the occupancy trends and growth in the hospitality sector in India. Key deals in India’s hospitality segment between...

www.realtynmore.com

---
HYDERABAD: Industries Ministet K T Rama Rao’s delegation has signed a major deal with TechnipFMC that has proposed to set up its software Global Delivery Center & Precision Engineering Manufacturing Facility, creating 2,500 jobs in engineering and 1,000 jobs in the manufacturing facility, in Hyderabad. The company proposed to invest Rs.1,250 cr ($160 mn) in the facility and it would create Rs,5,400 ($652 mn) crore export value.

The Minister had a fruitful meeting with the CEOs and many of them signed MOUs with the government to set up their offices in cities such as Nizamabad, Siddipet and Nalgonda. Very soon, Tier-II cities in the state will get more than 2,500 IT jobs which will in turn create indirect employment for 10,000 people.

KTR in US: TechnipFMC to set up unit in Hyderabad, invest Rs.1,250 crore

KTR delegation has signed a major deal with TechnipFMC that has proposed to set up its software Global Delivery Center & Precision Engineering Manufacturing Facility, creating 2,500 jobs in...

www.newstap.in

---

Hyderabad: In a significant development for the healthcare technology sector in India, Medtronic PLC, the Dublin-based global leader in healthcare technology, announced an investment of over $350 million (approximately Rs.3000 crore) to expand the Medtronic Engineering & Innovation Center (MEIC) in Hyderabad.

MEIC is Medtronic’s largest research and development (R&D) centre outside of the US.

Medtronic to invest Rs.3,000 crore in engineering and innovation centre in Hyderabad

Medtronic supports the Telangana government’s efforts to position Hyderabad as a global hub for healthcare technology research and innovation.

telanganatoday.com

---

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659831413783379968

----
Another Massive new addition to the rocking Hyderabad IT-ES sector!

A Bain Capital Owned company @vxiglobal, leading provider of customer experience solutions, with presence in 42 locations across North America, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and the Caribbean, makes a grand entry into Hyderabad - to setup a 10,000 employee center.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660081184603512832