Which will grow faster: India or Indonesia? (The Economist)

[Bilal9]

HSBC's Bhandari on Indian Tech's Economic Boost

HSBC sees India's tech-focused sectors driving the country's growth to 6.5% per annum, to more than double the economy's size in a decade. The bank's chief India economist Pranjul Bhandari discusses her outlook on "Bloomberg Markets Asia". (Source: Bloomberg)

www.bloomberg.com

I predict Indian economy to keep growing at 4.5-5 % for 2023 first quarter and IMO it is likely to keep growing at that rate this decade, while Indian economist working in HSBC saying India will grow at 6.5 % this decade.

We will see in the 29 May where India Q1 2023 data will be released, who is the best estimator, me or this Indian economist working in HSBC

Q1 2023 growth rate will be very important to see India long term economic growth after the low base number made during Covid period is disappearing to create bias on the Indian growth rate calculation.

From what I've read so far - India's growth will be at 5.5% maximum.

I don't know what the HSBC analyst's optimism is based on - quoting 6.5%.

 

[Indos]

From what I've read so far - India's growth will be at 5.5% maximum.

I don't know what the HSBC analyst's optimism is based on - quoting 6.5%.

6-6.5 % economic growth is something that is frequently stated by Indian economists, like their Finance Minister, Central Bankers, etc

This is despite Indian Q4 2022 is just around 4.5 %. We all know that previous Indian high growth is due to low based primarily caused by very tight Covid control measure that make their economy gets minus 7 percent growth in 2020. During Delta variant in 2021 there was tight control as well over people movement that effect both the supply and the demand side of the economy

This is why I said this Q1 2023 is pretty important to forecast Indian long term economic growth with much better accuracy

 

[NG Missile Vessels]

6-6.5 % economic growth is something that is frequently stated by Indian economists, like their Finance Minister, Central Bankers, etc
We all know that previous Indian high growth is due to low based primarily caused by very tight Covid control measure that make their economy gets minus 7 percent growth in 2020. During Delta variant in 2021 there was tight control as well over people movement that effect both the supply and the demand side of the economy

NSO now pegs India's real GDP to have grown by 9.1 per cent in 2021-22, higher than the 8.7 per cent growth estimated earlier. The negative growth in that year is now assessed at (-)5.7 per cent which is much lower than its first provisional estimate at (-)7.3 per cent

India GDP Q3 News Updates: GDP growth slows to 4.4 per cent in Q3, FY23 GDP growth estimated at 7%; FY22 GDP growth rate revised to 9.1% - The Economic Times

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) today released estimates for FY23 GDP growth along with GDP growth data for the December quarter and revised estimates for 2021-22 GDP growth.According to the data, India's GDP during 2022-23 is...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

India's economy to expand at 7% in FY23; FY22 GDP growth rate revised to 9.1%

The government released the second advance estimate of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for 2022-23 along with December quarter data today

www.livemint.com

This is despite Indian Q4 2022 is just around 4.5 %.

The lower-than-expected growth was led by an upward adjustment in the base year GDP, Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC said, adding that the level of output compared to pre-pandemic quarters continued to improve

Q3 Economic Growth Stronger Than Data Suggests: Economists

www.ndtv.com

 

[Indos]

The lower-than-expected growth was led by an upward adjustment in the base year GDP, Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC said, adding that the level of output compared to pre-pandemic quarters continued to improve

Q3 Economic Growth Stronger Than Data Suggests: Economists

www.ndtv.com

Adjustment is made to make the calculation based on the reality.

We will see real figure for Q1 2023 two weeks from now...........

 

[NG Missile Vessels]

This is why I said this Q1 2023 is pretty important to forecast Indian long term economic growth with much better accuracy

According to Shaktikanta Das, real GDP growth for 2023-24 is projected at 6.5٪ with Q1 at 7.8٪; Q2 at 6.2٪, Q3 at at 6.1٪ and Q4 at 5.9٪

From what I've read so far - India's growth will be at 5.5% maximum.

I don't know what the HSBC analyst's optimism is based on - quoting 6.5%.

India's growth rate as predicted by multilateral agencies(for FY24):
● Morgan Stanley: 6.2%
● World Bank: 6.3٪
● ADB: 6.4٪
● IMF: 5.9٪

 

[Bilal9]

Adjustment is made to make the calculation based on the reality.

We will see real figure for Q1 2023 two weeks from now...........

Exactly - the uptick in the GDP growth in India was supposed to be temporary - fueled mainly by pent up demand after COVID (2nd bout) in India. Everyone knew that the rate of GDP growth anything North of 6% could not be sustained. With every month, GDP growth was going to decline.

I realize - even as a lay person non-economist that the macro-economic fundamentals in India are not weak.

However - there are other factors in the Indian economy such as the large Current Account Deficit which is only compensated for and fueled by remittances. Remittances are not a constant source of cashflow and CAD can also go up.

In any case - like you, I am also waiting for the Q1 2023 numbers.

 

[NG Missile Vessels]

Exactly - the uptick in the GDP growth in India was supposed to be temporary - fueled mainly by pent up demand after COVID (2nd bout) in India. Everyone knew that the rate of GDP growth anything North of 6% could not be sustained. With every month, GDP growth was going to decline.

I realize - even as a lay person non-economist that the macro-economic fundamentals in India are not weak.

However - there are other factors in the Indian economy such as the large Current Account Deficit which is only compensated for and fueled by remittances. Remittances are not a constant source of cashflow and CAD can also go up.

In any case - like you, I am also waiting for the Q1 2023 numbers.

 

[CallSignMaverick]

Exactly - the uptick in the GDP growth in India was supposed to be temporary - fueled mainly by pent up demand after COVID (2nd bout) in India. Everyone knew that the rate of GDP growth anything North of 6% could not be sustained. With every month, GDP growth was going to decline.

I realize - even as a lay person non-economist that the macro-economic fundamentals in India are not weak.

However - there are other factors in the Indian economy such as the large Current Account Deficit which is only compensated for and fueled by remittances. Remittances are not a constant source of cashflow and CAD can also go up.

In any case - like you, I am also waiting for the Q1 2023 numbers.

CAD was bad last year but its getting sorted out, we're having just ~$1 to $2 billion in monthly trade deficits recently. Which would mean current account might be positive this year.

 

[migflug]

Excerpted from HSBC report:

Excerpted from Morgan Stanley Report:

Excerpted from Jefferies Report:

 

[NG Missile Vessels]

Go.ev |The Electric Revolution Documentary (English) |Tata Motors X National Geography

@Bilal9 @Indos Watch this video from 16:52

 

[CallSignMaverick]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1658772674804604928

https://twitter.com/x/status/1658790884077604864

 

[CallSignMaverick]

Amazon's AWS to invest $12.7 billion into India's cloud infra, confirms CEO Selipsky​

Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced plans to invest $12.7 billion into cloud infrastructure in India by 2030 to meet growing customer demand for cloud services in India.​

Amazon Web Services (AWS) has announced its commitment to invest $12.7 billion (over Rs 1 lakh crore) into India's cloud infrastructure by 2030 in its efforts to meet growing customer demand for cloud services in the country.

This injection is expected to contribute $23.3 billion towards India’s gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of the decade.


The investment in data center infrastructure in India will create an estimated average of 1,31,700 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs in Indian businesses each year.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659027231447068677

Amazon's AWS to invest $12 billion into India's cloud infra: CEO Selipsky

Amazon Web Services has announced plans to invest $12.7 billion into cloud infrastructure in India by 2030 to meet growing customer demand for cloud services in India.

www.moneycontrol.com

 

[Indos]

Indonesia's Pertamina unit scores 'big fish' discovery at North Sumatra block​

JAKARTA, May 17 (Reuters) - Indonesia's Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE), the upstream unit of state oil and gas company Pertamina, said it found a sizable discovery at its North Sumatra offshore block, part of government efforts to boost exploration activities.

PHE has reported discoveries at three exploration wells at its North Sumatra Offshore block so far this year, director Muharram Jaya Pangurseng told a media briefing on Wednesday.

"One of these structures has 53 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) resources which is considered a big fish discovery," he told reporters, adding that the two other discoveries were still being validated.

The company hopes development plans for the block can be drawn up soon.

Muharram said PHE aims to exceed its new resource discoveries in 2022 of 345 MMBOE.

Indonesia is pushing exploration in the face of its depleting oil and gas reserves.

The government aims to increase oil lifting to 1 million barrels per day by 2030 and gas lifting to 12 billion cubic feet per day.

Upstream oil and gas regulator SKK Migas said oil and gas contractors are planning to spend $1.7 billion on exploration this year, the highest since 2015.

Only around 20% of Indonesia's oil and gas basins have been explored, according to PHE.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indonesias-pertamina-unit-scores-big-fish-discovery-at-north-sumatra-block

 

[migflug]

Indonesia's Pertamina unit scores 'big fish' discovery at North Sumatra block​

JAKARTA, May 17 (Reuters) - Indonesia's Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE), the upstream unit of state oil and gas company Pertamina, said it found a sizable discovery at its North Sumatra offshore block, part of government efforts to boost exploration activities.

PHE has reported discoveries at three exploration wells at its North Sumatra Offshore block so far this year, director Muharram Jaya Pangurseng told a media briefing on Wednesday.

"One of these structures has 53 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) resources which is considered a big fish discovery," he told reporters, adding that the two other discoveries were still being validated.

The company hopes development plans for the block can be drawn up soon.

Muharram said PHE aims to exceed its new resource discoveries in 2022 of 345 MMBOE.

Indonesia is pushing exploration in the face of its depleting oil and gas reserves.

The government aims to increase oil lifting to 1 million barrels per day by 2030 and gas lifting to 12 billion cubic feet per day.

Upstream oil and gas regulator SKK Migas said oil and gas contractors are planning to spend $1.7 billion on exploration this year, the highest since 2015.

Only around 20% of Indonesia's oil and gas basins have been explored, according to PHE.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indonesias-pertamina-unit-scores-big-fish-discovery-at-north-sumatra-block

Hopefully we too find some oil near our Andaman & Nicobar islands.

 

[Indos]

Hopefully we too find some oil near our Andaman & Nicobar islands.

Who is doing the exploratory drilling in Andaman and Nicobar Islands areas ?

This Pertamina founding is not in Andaman and Nicobar, but in Nort Sumatra, inside Malacca Strait.

For Indonesia oil and gas founding in near Andaman and Nicobar Island, the founder is Premier Oil from England, mostly they find Gas there