Tomorrow our statistic biro will release Q1 economic growth and India usually release their data in the end of the month. We will likely know it which one is the fastest within G20 group this month. I expect whole 2023 economic growth of the two countries will not likely be too different with their Q1 economic growth.
I expect Indonesia can grow at 5.1 % in Q1 2023.
AlhamduliLLAH
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Indonesia’s Q1 growth beats forecasts on resilient consumption
- GDP expands 5.03% in first quarter, beating 4.97% forecast
- Exports growth decelerates as global commodity boom recedes
By
Grace Sihombing and
Claire Jiao
May 5, 2023 at 09:20 GMT+7Updated on May 5, 2023 at 10:15 GMT+7
Indonesia’s Q1 growth beats forecasts on resilient consumption
JAKARTA - Indonesia’s economy accelerated last quarter as the nation benefited from strong domestic consumption, even as exports took a knock from slowing global demand.
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.03 per cent in the three months through March from a year ago, the statistics office said on Friday. That was faster than the median estimate of 4.97 per cent in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, the economy shrank 0.92 per cent in the first quarter, still better than the economists’ median estimate for a 1 per cent contraction. This dip follows the seasonal pattern over the years, the nation’s statistics agency said.
As slowing global demand saps exports that make up about a quarter of South-east Asia’s largest economy, focus will turn to domestic consumption to shore up expansion. The Eid al-Fitr celebrations last month should help boost demand further, based on strong retail sales and improved consumer confidence.
Private consumption grew 4.54 per cent last quarter, accelerating slightly from 4.48 per cent in the previous three-month period. It remains the largest contributor to Indonesia’s economic output, though its share has fallen to about half of GDP from close to 60 per cent in 2020, latest data showed.
Room for rate cut
Bank Indonesia has already halted its monetary policy tightening after price pressures eased from a seven-year high. With the headline inflation rate looking set to return within the central bank’s 2 per cent-4 per cent target band sooner than expected, some analysts see room for an extended pause or even rate cuts that could bolster growth.
Meanwhile, exports expanded 11.68 per cent in the first quarter, a much slower pace than the near-15 per cent it recorded in the previous quarter. Resource-rich Indonesia saw lower prices for coal, palm oil, crude oil and nickel as the global commodity boom recedes.
According to Satria Sambijantoro, economist at PT Bahana Sekuritas, outbound shipments could suffer a sharper pullback in the coming quarters as exporters tend to frontload orders in the year. Demand is also weakening amid rising recession risks in the United States and Europe.
Indonesia’s economy should have strong catalysts, though, from 2024 election-related spending that could both support domestic consumption and lure offshore funds that will strengthen the rupiah, Mr Sambijantoro said.
“Overall, Indonesia’s macro picture in 2023 appears resilient amid stagflation risks elsewhere, and there is hope for rebound in consumption and investments in the second-half,” he said. BLOOMBERG
The economy accelerated amid strong domestic consumption, even as exports took a knock from slowing global demand. Read more at straitstimes.com.
www.straitstimes.com
