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a $10billion deal the notion cant be purely military initiatives! If take politics into account, personally i think India will go for Boeing. Both India and the States wanting to strengthen their ties to counter any possible threats in South Asia to their interests.
and also F-18 is a very stable model has been proven by countless wars and for now it is the backbone of america navy's air supreme power.
Technologically, eurofighter has the edge well balanced which suits the $10billion project's objective. Dassault Rafale is also good, but apart from the air-to-air capability india cant not gain any diplomatic interests from a deal with France.
Ruassian is really out of the picture, since it has been a monopoly in India's defence market for so long, India needs to seek some alternatives to its monopoly status for more leverage. besides, ruassian cannot provide any cutting edge tech to india except turbofan engine and areodynamics.
Probabaly a mix of Mig35 and F-18s