Which foreign power benefits the most from India Pakistan enmity

[Stag112]

Every time an effort to improve ties between India and Pakistan is made, everyone knows an effort to derail will follow within days. An attack in India is a virtual guarantee, and now we Indians have started joking that its better if we dont talk just to avoid the following terrorist attack.

Certainly forces internal (to our two countries) are involved. However it is very highly likely that these forces are influenced or used by foreign powers who may have their own benefits in keeping the enmity growing. We are going to completely ignore internal forces and limit this thread and poll to foreign nations who benefit the most from this bloody enmity.

I am going to present three candidates with incentives and disincentives and capability. You are free to add more.

Mind you foreign nations only, no mention of internal forces.

A) America ( the west ) - the usual suspect, rightly or not, when anything anywhere goes wrong.

Why - If we fight, atleast one country will always be in western camp, keeps doors to the region open. Can sell weapons to both nations.

Why not - counterproductive to their bigger objective of containing China and stabilising Afghanistan.

Capability - Nothing as attractive as dollars and an american passport. CIA capability can not be doubted.

B) China - the least mentioned, but with a big hand in the cookie jar.

Why - Uses Pakistan to contain India. A Pakistan hostile to India and the west is practically under Chinese control. No competition means lucrative economic, defence deals and access to geography unusual for a normal peaceful country to allow.

Why not - Makes India more vulnerable to be used to contain China.

Capability - very capable of influencing forces in Pakistan.

C) Israel - mainly included to pacify our Pakistani posters. No the Ben Gurion speech is still fake.

Why - sell weapons, make a friend (China is kind of out of bounds due to western ties)

Why not - would love to take that incredibly unlikely chance of mending ties with an Islamic Pakistan and move them away from Arab influence

Capability - probably some in India. Not much in Pakistan. Too busy facing hostility closer home.

I will post my own opinion in a susequent post so as to not influence the poll.

 

[Sipahi]

Above mention entities are beneficiaries no doubt.

 

[Abba_Dabba_Jabba]

My order will be :
1). US (They loves policing everywhere )
2). Israel (They will get more contracts for weapon, plus their agencies will be involved somehow)
3). China (By selling weapon, nothing strategic)

 

[PARIKRAMA]

A peaceful South Asia is a small blow to Military MICs across the world as well as a very superb advantage to a market which is going to provide innumerable opportunities to every country who has a product to sell.

The biggest discontentment seems to be not in the three options you provided @Stag112 . There is a 4th element known as Terror Inc supported by multiple countries directly indirectly..

Thats the biggest beneficiary.. The peace process makes Terror Inc employees jobless, unwanted and most importantly without any agendas. Such aim less but with extremist elements within is difficult to get rehabilitation successfully in a society which now dont moves on radicalism and where people of both countries dont dwell on past and have hatred based on sentiments/Past experiences. Its a matter of time that terror in Afghanistan and ISIS issue would get over in say 5-10 years. Then practically they are without anything to do.

India Pakistan peace is not desired bcz that is the avenue where they can relocate... Terror Inc gets support via
- MICs which sells weapons covertly
- Countries finance terror for their own individual benefit of destabilization and big industries seeing high risk not investing in the region (look at who are the financiers of ISIS for example)
- Extreme religious radicalism can find new loyal followers as the thriving tensions, deep hatred and religious based divide easily find them new recruits..

Its not one foreign power alone which gets benefit but multiple vested interests drive them to Terror Inc.

 

[Bornubus]

At least remove the name of Israel for Fk sake,add None of the above instead,she was neutral for most part,our diplomatic relation started only in 90s while major war between India pak happened in 65,71,siachen.

The enmity is inherent in the DNA of both the countries, no external power is responsible for it and we have no ill will for China either even though their 55% weapons export are went to Pak and both are strategic partner.

 

[Darth Vader]

Instead of Israel , Russia is better option India is biggest weapon supplier for decades

 

[Stag112]

My vote is for China.

The more Pakistan feels threatened by India, the more it falls into Chinese influence

China gets full access to Pakistan, spreads influence in South Asia, accesses Gwadar, uses Pakistan to contain India to frustrate wests plans to use India to contain China, uses Pakistan to thwart growth in the region by limiting SAARC success thus making SCO more lucrative, no competition means China gets awesome economic benefits through monopoly (look at the interest rates we have got from Japan for HSR and Pakistan for CPEC), makes sure Pakistan remains 100 % committed to not helping ETIM and the like in East Turkistan, use Pakistan to bleed US in Afghanistan, sell weapons to Pakistan almost exclusively etc etc.

Just too many benefits. Practically no downside.

@PARIKRAMA your point is valid but Terror inc is out of scope of this thread.

 

[WAJsal]

Local entities cannot be ignored, both countries have elements who wouldn't want peace between the two countries; the attack seems to be very timely. Good to see India not panicking and playing it smartly. Let's hope for the best. Not very keen on conspiracy theories, i don't think China would be involved.

 

[Stag112]

Local entities cannot be ignored, both countries have elements who wouldn't want peace between the two countries;the attack seems to be very timely. Good to see India not panicking and playing it smartly. Let's hope for the best.

I am not saying local entities should be ignored. I am just trying to encourage better understanding of foreign relations beyond the usual friendly brotherly sloganeering and towards hard realities.

Holistic view of the relationship and the terror angle itself is indeed incomplete without local entities. But the scope of the thread has been limited for the purpose of focus and understanding. If you mix everything up we will get into a blame game.

Mind you I have not blamed anyone, just highlighted foreign stake and left the conclusions to posters.

BTW congrats on making mod. You do know I was the single biggest factor in making that happen practically did door to door campaigning. I hope you wont hold that against me.

 

[WAJsal]

China would be stupid to have taken such a step, peace in the region is what they benefit the most from. They have pushed us to improve security situation in Pakistan. With CPEC going through, don't think they'd risk it.

Mind you I have not blamed anyone, just highlighted foreign stake and left the conclusions to posters.

I get that. Exceeding the limits of my daily dose of conspiracy theories.
Ciao

 

[Maarkhoor]

Local entities cannot be ignored, both countries have elements who wouldn't want peace between the two countries;the attack seems to be very timely. Good to see India not panicking and playing it smartly. Let's hope for the best. Not very keen on conspiracy theories, i don't think China would be involved.

As i mentioned before many headless zombies are easily available on sale they can attack anything anywhere in India or Pakistan, Just put the right price to their handlers pocket and these morons give their life for nothing unknowingly they were sold. They can be from Pakistan, India or Kashmir posses a big threat to the regional peace, i hope Indian intelligence knows this very well and advise their PM accordingly. After Gurdasspur attack i am expecting fiery response from Indian PM but he act quite wisely that give me confidence they somehow they know that Pakistan is not directly or indirectly responsible for that attacks. May be in future both countries work together to thwart off such attacks.

 

[WAJsal]

BTW congrats on making mod. You do know I was the single biggest factor in making that happen practically did door to door campaigning. I hope you wont hold that against me.

Thank you for the support, i had strong support from other mods and Webby too. Lol, will try.

After Gurdasspur attack i am expecting fiery response from Indian PM but he act quite wisely that give me confidence they somehow know that Pakistan is not directly or indirectly responsible for that attacks.

Highlighted! thus the reaction, interesting. It's nothing less than foolish to even think we'd be directly involved, we are gaining the most from talks, just a stupid argument.

OK for conspiracy theory post

How about Saudi Arabia?
A peaceful Pakistan, the only Nuclear power in Islam, would see nominal funding of its N weapons program and see more investments in other avenues which brings them to prosperity and people development.

Surely the Saudis wont like that seeing the people who were always asking for help and who could help them with a N weapon in case of need and fight based on religious issues.

Is it too much conspiracy?

How about Bangladesh, lol!

 

[saiyan0321]

Need to bring in local parties as well as they play a major role in pak ind politics..

The thing is you also need to look at the timeline..

When Pakistan and india came to be the world powers at that time aka USA and USSR saw two potentially hostile nations with great power that can be utilized to curb their enemies influence in the region. USSR took in India and USA took in Pakistan and these two nations till the 90,s played the game. USA provided AID and weapons to Pakistan and India was provided for by USSR. This way both nations kept each other in check. This game reached its zenith when the soviet invaded Afghanistan and was on the borders of Pakistan ( the only US ally in the region). USA was very well aware that if Pakistan fell Russia would rule Asia, US influence would be destroyed and middle east would be open season for USSR.

After the fall of Russia USA looked at India in providing the necessary containment of china as Pakistan ha great ties with china so Pakistan was no good however india held hostility towards china and thus was a more realistic option. our nuclear program thus bugs America so much bcz china providing us as a containment to india thus America fins Chinese influence on Pakistan a great issue. The growing American influence has worried Russia and Russia is now trying to create better relations with Pakistan although india is number one for Russia it told india that if you move towards our enemy then we can move towards your's as well.

That's why it bugged America greatly when we allowed china access to the gawader port.,,,... m


It is such a muck bcz of these power games...

The game now is China USA an Russia and the amongst the big prizes stands the indian ocean, the dependence on the strait of Malacca and the gawader port.

 

[Stag112]

Mind you just because one benefits the most does not automatically mean one is behind it. That is a separate exercise and no such angle is implied.

The idea is to plant that little seed of suspicion when dealing with all foreign powers.

 

[Kambojaric]

Whoever sells the most weapons to both countries. As it stands thats the NATO powers, so there you have your answer.