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Which ASEAN Country Will Become The World's Next Manufacturing Hub?

You do realize that four decades ago most of the nations on the planet would have smaller GDP per capita right?
CN now would still have the same GDP per capital in 1978 if it didnt bow down , surrenderred Senkaku, TW and begged for JP-US support ( just look at NK for example).

CN got higher GDP just bcs it got US, JP support.
 
No single ASEAN country can become the world's manufacturing hub like China.
China was able to achieve it because of its massive population and vast geography. ASEAN countries together except China can become a major manufacturing hub. Not just one country can achieve it.
 
LOL The problem with this type of circular argument with Vietcong or VC mentality stricken Viet in here (which denote an attitude and a state of mind observed during NAM i.e. exaggeration, habitual lying as well as their coolie mentality)is that you are wasting your TIME and getting NOWHERE, as one senior poster Tai Shang timely advised me.


1. TPPA was an original idea hijacked from EAEC modified to give USA corporations more BARGAINING power than the rest of the member states.

2. The reasons why FOLKS esp. the mostly uneducated nationalistic Khmer Krom Vietnam thinks they are getting a good deal is because they are BRAINWASHED into acceptance e.g. have any Vietnamese seen the agreement or the fine print to be precise 1000 pages.

3. In a democracy like Philippines, the present ruling government knew it will be suicidal to proceed and present such a secret package from the ordinary folks. The opposition will exploit and slaughtered them in the process in the coming election.

4. VIETNAM being a RED COMMUNIST STATE whose authoritarian grip on the population is described as between three quarter way from North Korea and PRC has NO such burden.

5. From the little information we gather , OBAMA’s USA adopted a NEW STRATEGY in order to FAST TRACK TPPA the bill to the extent of even betraying the American voters and consumers e.g. it only required 51% approval from lawmakers to pass the bill but it will required 2/3 the number to reject it once it is passed.

6. In Malaysia, although the ruling junta has signed the pact despite public objections. NOBODY outside of the chosen few knew anything about the deal. Furthermore it will NOT PRESENT it in Parliament until the eleven hours citing NO TIME for debate during the current session (What? NO TIME to debate an important bill that involved ordinary folks like the TPPA?) and will only be present in January 2016 where it happened to be the deadline for Malaysia to accept the deal. Meanwhile everything about TPPA is hidden and secret. Anyone discussing it or in possession of a copy is against the law using the Official Secret Act. That is TPPA – MALAYSIAN PROSPECTIVE.

7. From the little information, we gathered, the TPPA is NOT an equivalent deal between each states e.g. while USA can has total ACCESS to New Zealand farm, it has NO FREE ACCESS to Canadian farm under their agreement, Japan farm subsidies is trade off with Japanese Automobile being subjected to the same USA tax for the next 30 years meaning NO CHANGE.

8. As for the SMALLER PARTNERS like Vietnam or Malaysia, since they have NOTHING TO OFFER in return except for US1 dollar sweatshops, they will be eventually squeezed like a ball. The WONDERFUL THING for these low IQ individuals, they are so brainwashed they never stop to even ponder for a minute. In this respect, the FILIPINO and INDONESIA are certainly SMARTER than them. I guess the RED Vietnamese have NO CHOICE as it is NOT FOR THEM to decide.

9. But in the meantime, we know USA corporation esp. pharmaceutical firms can now cracked down on generic drugs because their expired patent right has just been extended from 12 years to 30 or 36 years. We can ask 1000X but we can expects NO ANSWER until it happens.

Next some interesting facts:

1. Every year China adds 4 Vietnam to its ECONOMY.

2. Vietnam’s annual GDP is only a fraction of “The Pearl River Delta Economics Zone” and so for some misinformed journalists from SCMP to assume just because due to competition which is a fact, some factories are closing down there, it does not represent a future trend. So IMO the article is SHALLOW and ILLOGICAL e.g. it pointed out that Wintek closed down. The truth is Wintek closed down because it lost its biggest customer “iPhone deal” to other competitors also based in China e.g. Pagatron, Lens, etc. There are over 1000 touch screen makers alone in China alone because they existed because of China’s huge domestic market. If they are relocated to Vietnam, who are they going to sell to if China refuse to buy them like Vietnam furniture after the riot? How come they could not export it to the other nation. Think LOGISTICALLY.

3. As Tai Shang sarcastically remarked about VW moving to Vietnam and India much to the delight of some ill-informed VC who also thought that the VW is to rename their brand VW as VcW meaning VIETCONG WAGON. VW annual sales in China in 2014 is 3.67 million cars against its global sales of 10.2 million from the other 99 worldwide factories. I think VW have 20 factories in China alone which still could not meet its demand.

Very informative and analytical post, @CAPRICORN-88 . :tup:
 
CN now would still have the same GDP per capital in 1978 if it didnt bow down , surrenderred Senkaku, TW and begged for JP-US support ( just look at NK for example).

CN got higher GDP just bcs it got US, JP support.

I won't waste my effort, so I will just quote my previous post again.

"Actually, the biggest foreign investor to China at the time is Japan, US has limited investment into China (again, because of political inclinations)

日本对华官方发展援助规模透析

Out of the Japanese investment into China from 1979 to 2001, in the span of 22 years, Japan provided China with a grand total of 16.34 billion USD or 710 million per year. And I quote from another site: "GDP of China in 1970 was worth 91 billion US dollars, ranked 8th in the world and was on par with GDP of Canada (87.8 billion US dollars)."
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China, 1970-2013
In comparison, Vietnam in 2014 was ranked 55th to 57th (depending on the source). China and Vietnam are not even remotely in the same league.

Account for inflation, 710 million USD in 1970 would worth $4.35 billion in 2015, which is about 1/3 of the 2014 revenue of Xiaomi or the construction cost of about 200 km of high speed rail. Basically, it was nice and not an insignificant amount, but still quite small comparing to the domestic output of China.

Of course, More importantly, before Japanese investment into China, China already has a complete industrial base which is capable of producing pretty much anything. Can Vietnam make that claim today?

The real effect of the improvement in China-Japan/US relationship in 1980s isn't any kind of foreign investment or loan. Sure, they are nice, but still rather small comparing to what China already have. The real effect is opening up Japan/US market for Chinese products. (BTW, Vietnam already have this access for decades and look where you are right now)

Source: Which ASEAN Country Will Become The World's Next Manufacturing Hub? | Page 4

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No single ASEAN country can become the world's manufacturing hub like China.
China was able to achieve it because of its massive population and vast geography. ASEAN countries together except China can become a major manufacturing hub. Not just one country can achieve it.

Which would require 10 countries with 10 different currency, 10 different cultures, 11 languages, more religious problems than I care to count and more than a bit bad blood in the past to completely set aside their difference and work harmonious like a unified front------yeah, that will happen soon.

(BTW, even combined, the ASEAN+observers are less than half the size and population of China. India actually has a better chance than ASEAN because at least India is unified under a single government.)
 
Which would require 10 countries with 10 different currency, 10 different cultures, 11 languages, more religious problems than I care to count and more than a bit bad blood in the past to completely set aside their difference and work harmonious like a unified front------yeah, that will happen soon.

(BTW, even combined, the ASEAN+observers are less than half the size and population of China. India actually has a better chance than ASEAN because at least India is unified under a single government.)

That is why I said ASEAN can together become a major manufacturing hub and not a global manufacturing hub !
About India, we have to wait and see what Mr. Modi's policies are bringing in.
 
That is why I said ASEAN can together become a major manufacturing hub and not a global manufacturing hub !
About India, we have to wait and see what Mr. Modi's policies are bringing in.

You probably have more lucky waiting for his Hindutva policies, or something like Hindi supremacism, anti murder cow-ism, dalit coverts no goodies-ism.
 
That is why I said ASEAN can together become a major manufacturing hub and not a global manufacturing hub !
About India, we have to wait and see what Mr. Modi's policies are bringing in.

Fair enough. To be honest though, if I have to bet on loosely organized regional organization actually evolving into a coherent entity, my money will be on European union.
 
Fair enough. To be honest though, if I have to bet on loosely organized regional organization actually evolving into a coherent entity, my money will be on European union.

Not really. If you opt for European Union you will end up spending four times the money.
It is always better and high yielding to invest in an emerging economy.
 
You probably have more lucky waiting for his Hindutva policies, or something like Hindi supremacism, anti murder cow-ism, dalit coverts no goodies-ism.

You don't read economy or trade ?
Just biology, history and linguistics ?
Come on. Mr .Modi is not just a figure of Hindutva.
There are several business oriented initiatives taken by the new government.
What you state are the targeted propaganda of the presstitutes and Pakistanis.
Yes, Modi is a threat to secularism but that doesn't mean he is bad for business.
 
Don't forget to see what the Germans are doing as they move forward to Industry 4.0. And with the American's re-shoring under the initiative - Designed in America, Made in America, & our own Made in China 2025, the world economy is going to see interesting changes to how division & implementation of supply chain strategy locally & globally.
 
Don't forget to see what the Germans are doing as they move forward to Industry 4.0. And with the American's re-shoring under the initiative - Designed in America, Made in America, & our own Made in China 2025, the world economy is going to see interesting changes to how division & implementation of supply chain strategy locally & globally.

Manufacturing in Germany and America is going to be damn costly that the products cannot stand the competition.
What they will do under the new policy is to give manufacturing orders to countries with untapped potential.
Eg. India, ASEAN, Bangladesh, Africa and South America.
 
That is the idea. BUT, the all developing nations yearn for high-value added, high-tech. manufacturing industry. It is this exclusive piece of pie that the big dogs will hold close to their heart. After seeing how China is starting to drink their milk shake, the last thing they want to make another "China". Whether we are talking about TPP or RCEP or whatever, it is the top dogs redrawing boundaries & setting favorable conditions for their self interest.

"Anything doesn't come when you wake up" is my point.
It is okay to start or survive with low-tech manufacturing industry which will be the foundation for an advanced and high-tech economy. See what China did to scare the West. It started to manufacture many high-tech products from aerospace, defense to healthcare, telecom etc. Fact is China started from '0'. Isn't it ?
One day the West will be challenged or overwhelmed by this side of earth.

It's a figure of speech. Meaning EU has a better chance to unify into an single, coherent entity than ASEAN or middle east.

I understand. But my point is there is no unified bloc in the present world than the ASEAN (excluding China).
You can name AU or USAN but they are still far from self-sustainability and unity. That is why I bet on ASEAN to come good if need arises !
 
I understand. But my point is there is no unified bloc in the present world than the ASEAN (excluding China).
You can name AU or USAN but they are still far from self-sustainability and unity. That is why I bet on ASEAN to come good if need arises !

Sure we do. That bloc is called India.
 

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