Where are Iranian-Iraqi Relations Heading to?
Bilgay Duman, ORSAM Middle East Specialist
25 April 2013
In a column published in the Financial Times, which is one of the most esteemed and important newspapers of UK, on 12 March 2013 it was asserted that the real winner of the war in Iraq was Turkey despite the fact that Iran seemed to be the most effective external power in Iraq, and it was attributed to the activities of Turkish companies. In the column, the trading volume between Turkey and Iraq was indicated as 10,8 billion dollars as from 2012. Is economic activity on its own sufficient to earn? It appears that the answer to be given to that question depends on the national and international impact capacity of the countries. However, when it comes to Iraq, it is hard to say that the economic activities on its own could be enough. In this terms, the influence of Iran in Iraq is still indisputable. It seems that the relations and cooperation between Iran and Iraq have further developed especially after the outbreak of events in Syria. Even looking at the frequency of visits and the agreements signed between Iraq and Iran during March-April 2013 shows the developing relationship between the two countries.
During March 2013, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi and Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian individually paid visits to Iraq. While Ali Akbar Salehi held talks with religious scholars in Najaf; Abdullahian, on the other hand, exchanged views with Iraqi authorities on the situation in Syria and Bahrain. Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi paid a visit to Iraqi capital Baghdad on 10 March 2013, and talked to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki; and they discussed the joint projects that are planned to be carried out by two countries, as well as the natural gas to be provided by Iran to Iraq. In addition, the parties also agreed during the aforesaid talk that Iran will export gas to Iraq by 20 July 2013. During the visit to Iraq in early April, Iranian Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi held talks with Nouri Al-Maliki; Leader of Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq Ammar al-Hakim; Iraqi Parliament Speaker Osama Al-Nujayfi, and with Iraqi National Security Advisor Faleh al-Fayyad. During the talks, Moslehi highlighted that Iran is ready to transfer its experiences to Iraq. Besides, they also grabbed attention to the necessity of developing relations between Baghdad and Teheran especially in the security field.
On the other hand, the Iraqi authorities also paid visits to Iran and the parties signed agreements on various subjects. During the Commissioner of the Iraqi Ministry of Finance General Commission for Free Zones Sabah Saleh al-Qaisi's visits to Iran in February, he held talks with Managing Director of Iran's Arvand Free Trade Zone (FTZ) Mohebat Raeesi. During the talk, an agreement was signed on petrochemistry and refinery, as well as improvement of railroad and sea transportation between Iran and Iraq. On 6 March 2013, Adnan Al-Asadi Proxy Interior Minister of Iraq talked to the Iranian Minister of Interior, Mustafa Mohammad Najjar during his visit to Iran. Both parties agreed to put a new Momerandum of Understanding MoU , including to open new border gates between the two countries and provide training of Iraqi police as well as equipment sustainment, into action. Iran, Iraq and Syria signed a telecommunication agreement as a result of the negotiations conducted in Iran's capital Teheran on 5 March 2013. In accordance with the agreement, there will be a cooperation on the transmission of data and voice signals between countries. Besides, it is also known that Iran provides internet support for Iraq. Also, another agreement was signed on 12 March 2013 to expand the cooperation between Iranian and Iraqi Naval Forces. The agreement especially foresees organization of joint exercises.
As is seen, the Iranian-Iraqi relations are becoming closer and further developing. The trading volume between Iran and Iraq, on the other hand, has reached 10.7 billion dollars in 2013. It is expected to almost reach 12 billion dollars by the end of 2013. Iran is trying to develop its relations not only with the Iraqi central government, but also with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). However, the relations between Iran and Iraqi central government are at high levels in each field. On November 2012, Iran launched works on the natural gas pipeline agreement signed between Iran, Iraq and Syria on 25 July 2011. It was announced that the 225-meter part of the pipeline, which is located on the Iranian side of the 1500 km-natural gas pipeline and will be obtained from Asaluye, is about to be completed; and the first natural gas shipment to Iraq will be made during the summer months of 2013. Although it is hard to complete the pipeline under current circumstances, it is an important step both in terms of further improving the relations between Iran and Iraq, and also in terms of Iran's diversifying the market and shipment routes to overcome the embargo. Foreseeing that the pressure on Iran and the Syrian issue will continue as it is, it seems that the approach between Iran and Iraq will further increase. Because Iraq assumes an important role and serves as a bridge in Iran's Syria policy. Besides, Iraq might serve as a transit point for Iran to open to foreign countries in terms of trade. On the other hand, the continuing influence of Iran in Iraq weakens the U.S. influence. After all, during the post-2003 process, the U.S. could do what it wants only on the subjects that Iran is persuaded. Especially during the government-formation processes, this situation was explicitly observed. What really matters at this point is: Will the Iran-Iraq cooperation turn into an alliance or even into a polar? After all, the course of Iranian-Iraqi relations is an important parameter also in terms of future of the region. Should the Iranian-Iraqi approach turn into an alliance or a polarization, this might lead to a contradiction for Turkey as well.
ORSAM :: Foreign Policy Analysis
Bilgay Duman, ORSAM Middle East Specialist
25 April 2013
In a column published in the Financial Times, which is one of the most esteemed and important newspapers of UK, on 12 March 2013 it was asserted that the real winner of the war in Iraq was Turkey despite the fact that Iran seemed to be the most effective external power in Iraq, and it was attributed to the activities of Turkish companies. In the column, the trading volume between Turkey and Iraq was indicated as 10,8 billion dollars as from 2012. Is economic activity on its own sufficient to earn? It appears that the answer to be given to that question depends on the national and international impact capacity of the countries. However, when it comes to Iraq, it is hard to say that the economic activities on its own could be enough. In this terms, the influence of Iran in Iraq is still indisputable. It seems that the relations and cooperation between Iran and Iraq have further developed especially after the outbreak of events in Syria. Even looking at the frequency of visits and the agreements signed between Iraq and Iran during March-April 2013 shows the developing relationship between the two countries.
During March 2013, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi and Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian individually paid visits to Iraq. While Ali Akbar Salehi held talks with religious scholars in Najaf; Abdullahian, on the other hand, exchanged views with Iraqi authorities on the situation in Syria and Bahrain. Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi paid a visit to Iraqi capital Baghdad on 10 March 2013, and talked to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki; and they discussed the joint projects that are planned to be carried out by two countries, as well as the natural gas to be provided by Iran to Iraq. In addition, the parties also agreed during the aforesaid talk that Iran will export gas to Iraq by 20 July 2013. During the visit to Iraq in early April, Iranian Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi held talks with Nouri Al-Maliki; Leader of Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq Ammar al-Hakim; Iraqi Parliament Speaker Osama Al-Nujayfi, and with Iraqi National Security Advisor Faleh al-Fayyad. During the talks, Moslehi highlighted that Iran is ready to transfer its experiences to Iraq. Besides, they also grabbed attention to the necessity of developing relations between Baghdad and Teheran especially in the security field.
On the other hand, the Iraqi authorities also paid visits to Iran and the parties signed agreements on various subjects. During the Commissioner of the Iraqi Ministry of Finance General Commission for Free Zones Sabah Saleh al-Qaisi's visits to Iran in February, he held talks with Managing Director of Iran's Arvand Free Trade Zone (FTZ) Mohebat Raeesi. During the talk, an agreement was signed on petrochemistry and refinery, as well as improvement of railroad and sea transportation between Iran and Iraq. On 6 March 2013, Adnan Al-Asadi Proxy Interior Minister of Iraq talked to the Iranian Minister of Interior, Mustafa Mohammad Najjar during his visit to Iran. Both parties agreed to put a new Momerandum of Understanding MoU , including to open new border gates between the two countries and provide training of Iraqi police as well as equipment sustainment, into action. Iran, Iraq and Syria signed a telecommunication agreement as a result of the negotiations conducted in Iran's capital Teheran on 5 March 2013. In accordance with the agreement, there will be a cooperation on the transmission of data and voice signals between countries. Besides, it is also known that Iran provides internet support for Iraq. Also, another agreement was signed on 12 March 2013 to expand the cooperation between Iranian and Iraqi Naval Forces. The agreement especially foresees organization of joint exercises.
As is seen, the Iranian-Iraqi relations are becoming closer and further developing. The trading volume between Iran and Iraq, on the other hand, has reached 10.7 billion dollars in 2013. It is expected to almost reach 12 billion dollars by the end of 2013. Iran is trying to develop its relations not only with the Iraqi central government, but also with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). However, the relations between Iran and Iraqi central government are at high levels in each field. On November 2012, Iran launched works on the natural gas pipeline agreement signed between Iran, Iraq and Syria on 25 July 2011. It was announced that the 225-meter part of the pipeline, which is located on the Iranian side of the 1500 km-natural gas pipeline and will be obtained from Asaluye, is about to be completed; and the first natural gas shipment to Iraq will be made during the summer months of 2013. Although it is hard to complete the pipeline under current circumstances, it is an important step both in terms of further improving the relations between Iran and Iraq, and also in terms of Iran's diversifying the market and shipment routes to overcome the embargo. Foreseeing that the pressure on Iran and the Syrian issue will continue as it is, it seems that the approach between Iran and Iraq will further increase. Because Iraq assumes an important role and serves as a bridge in Iran's Syria policy. Besides, Iraq might serve as a transit point for Iran to open to foreign countries in terms of trade. On the other hand, the continuing influence of Iran in Iraq weakens the U.S. influence. After all, during the post-2003 process, the U.S. could do what it wants only on the subjects that Iran is persuaded. Especially during the government-formation processes, this situation was explicitly observed. What really matters at this point is: Will the Iran-Iraq cooperation turn into an alliance or even into a polar? After all, the course of Iranian-Iraqi relations is an important parameter also in terms of future of the region. Should the Iranian-Iraqi approach turn into an alliance or a polarization, this might lead to a contradiction for Turkey as well.
ORSAM :: Foreign Policy Analysis
