what would 2018 election look like ?

[Musafir117]

Whoever Opper wale want

 

[ziaulislam]

PMLN in Punjab with coalition of other small parties, PTI will be runner up in punjab, PPP in sindh, PTI marginally in baluchistan and KPK, in baluchistan there will be a big tussle due to ANP and JUI siding with PMLN. And in KP don't underestimate Jamat e Islami's power to dent PTI. They will not win but can take away small part of PTI electorate. Making it weaker against it's opponents. That's how i see the upcoming elections.

In center it will be a government of coalition probably between PTI, PPP and Jamat e islami.

PTI will never form govt with PPPP
more likley PPPP+PMLN will join hands to support which ever of the two is the majority party
unless PTI is the majority paarty(which is unlikley given punjab situation

 

[Zibago]

they have to some extent resolved laod shedding.. or atleast imporved it...
PML N did a clean sweep in punjab (10:1), so this time it wount do a clean sweep but still will easily outclass PTI, remeber even in 2008 when PPPP did clean sweep in sindh , parts of KPK and Baluchistan it was a weak colaition govt with PML N in punjab

i am 99% certian that PMLN will win simply because it will win in punjab and PPPP will take sindh, this will leave PTI suffering...
unless PTI some how takes urban sindh and urban punjab(like it took urban KPK), it has no hope
PTI whole moto is educated class of pakistan yet it failed to gain support in educated class of punjab/sindh

PTI does have the support of the urban educated classin Punjab but we keep forgetting they dont make up the majority of Punjab. Even in Lodhran according to one exit poll the core support of pmln was over 35 undereducated male mostly whom were farmers and laborers
The people whom you can change bt corruption allegations have changed but they DONT make the majority in Pakistan the majority of Pakistanis are semiliterates with zero concrrn for provincial let alone national politics

 

[pak-marine]

If elections happen in 2018 ...it will be a coalition govt of ppp , pti , mqm / psp etcetera

 

[ziaulislam]

PTI does have the support of the urban educated classin Punjab but we keep forgetting they dont make up the majority of Punjab. Even in Lodhran according to one exit poll the core support of pmln was over 35 undereducated male mostly whom were farmers and laborers
The people whom you can change bt corruption allegations have changed but they DONT make the majority in Pakistan the majority of Pakistanis are semiliterates with zero concrrn for provincial let alone national politics

WRONG...PTI LOST IN ALL URBAN AREAS OF PUNJAB IN 2013 ELECTION..it only got 20 seats vs 210 seats of PML N
nearly 1/3-1/2 seats are in urban areas

PTI only had support in KPK urban areas thats it

 

[Zibago]

WRONG...PTI LOST IN ALL URBAN AREAS OF PUNJAB IN 2013 ELECTION..it only got 20 seats vs 210 seats of PML N
nearly 1/3-1/2 seats are in urban areas

PTI only had support in KPK urban areas thats it

I said Urban educated class(10% have matric in Pakistan we keep forgetting that) check the exit polls on demographics like the ones released before Lodhran than we can talk

Lodhran, s exit poll was a spot on snapshot of pti, s support in Punjab its mainly supported by educated urban middle class of punjab

 

[ziaulislam]

I said Urban educated class(10% have matric in Pakistan we keep forgetting that) check the exit polls on demographics like the ones released before Lodhran than we can talk

Lodhran, s exit poll was a spot on snapshot of pti, s support in Punjab its mainly supported by educated urban middle class of punjab

i am pretty much confident that in urban centers of punjab the education is same as urban areas of KPK, i.e atleast half of the voting people have middle to metric degree, while 20% have higher degrees

10% is too low for urban class, if its true than i am stunned...we have no hope than and am suprised that in 40 years of democrasy this is our acheivement

 

[Hyde]

I think PML-N will lose roughly 30 seats from Federal Government and PTI will gain most of it

PML-10 might lose 10-15% in Punjab and will continue to govern Punjab for the next 5 years

The results are likely to be similar with PML-N losing some and PTI/PPP gaining by a slight margin

 

[Zibago]

i am pretty much confident that in urban centers of punjab the education is same as urban areas of KPK, i.e atleast half of the voting people have middle to metric degree, while 20% have higher degrees

10% is too low for urban class, if its true than i am stunned...we have no hope than and am suprised that in 40 years of democrasy this is our acheivement

20% having hssc degree lol
I think thats the stats for where i live(Islamabad)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Pakistan
If the stats are to be taken as face s we are neck deep is shit

 

[Shahzaz ud din]

Dynamics of Pak politics is very complex.You can not predict election results on the bases of mere guess work.It is a huge activity which is conducted simultaneously in all parts of the country.Current ground realities are absolutely different from 2013 elections.If somebody was expecting PTI to win in 2013 election I must say he did not have required understanding of the politics how it works.There are several major and minor factors which affect election result.On the bases of my personal understanding in Pak politics generally and in Punjab specially the following three factors play the major role in elections,
1- Establishment factor
2- Electables or local political grouping
3- Anti-incumbency factor

If some body wants to predict the election result for 2018 he must keep all three factors in mind as mentioned above.

I think PML-N will lose roughly 30 seats from Federal Government and PTI will gain most of it

PML-10 might lose 10-15% in Punjab and will continue to govern Punjab for the next 5 years

The results are likely to be similar with PML-N losing some and PTI/PPP gaining by a slight margin

In 2018 election you will see major upsets in strong holds of PMLN in Punjab,

PTI will never form govt with PPPP
more likley PPPP+PMLN will join hands to support which ever of the two is the majority party
unless PTI is the majority paarty(which is unlikley given punjab situation

Chances are very high that PTI and PPP will make coalition govt.Reason the common enemy PMLN and to safeguard the democracy

 

[ziaulislam]

Dynamics of Pak politics is very complex.You can not predict election results on the bases of mere guess work.It is a huge activity which is conducted simultaneously in all parts of the country.Current ground realities are absolutely different from 2013 elections.If somebody was expecting PTI to win in 2013 election I must say he did not have required understanding of the politics how it works.There are several major and minor factors which affect election result.On the bases of my personal understanding in Pak politics generally and in Punjab specially the following three factors play the major role in elections,
1- Establishment factor
2- Electables or local political grouping
3- Incumbency factor

If some body wants to predict the election result for 2018 he must keep all three factors in mind as mentioned above.


In 2018 election you will see major upsets in strong holds of PMLN in Punjab,

from what i have seen since 1970s..its pretty much straight forward..
assuming that elections are not a laughing setup..the political struture is as follows

1. KPK
urban areas: is always a shift based upon which party promises better
rural areas: regional variations from PPPP,(parts of Dir due to their role in estbalishing states) PMLN (hazara having language relation to punjab and capt safdar), JUI (parts of religious rural KPK), JI(strong movements in part of northern KPK), ANP some rural pushtoon areas

2. Punjab:
simplest province..you need a punjab card
central and upper punjab will vote for punjab card so you either need a variation of some chaudry
you would also need to have local relgious leaders support which you can buy easily
this is true for both urban and rural areas

lower/southern punjab can be swing becasue they sometime think that upper punjab is not promoting development and than language is also an issue, so they voted for PPPP but PPPP screwed them over in 2008-13

3. sindh
they cannot vote for an outsider so its either PPPP(rural) or MQM(urban)

4. Baluchistan
its not a party system, its tribal system... and some JUI seats and other small parties

now in light above you can explain all elections from 2003,2008,2013,and 2018

in 2003 KPK had MMA govt, this time urban supported them too, for sake of corruption and education banner but it didnt work however, they did got not only rural votes(fix bank) but urban as wll and hence, emerged a very large and strong party that became second largest party, PPPP took southern punjab and sindh while PMLQ took punjab

2008
KPK urban areas swung to ANP, punjab again PML, sindh again PPPP and southern punjab again PPPP

2013
IK was very popular in media, every one heard his message(unlike from 2002-2013)
KPK urban swung again to PTI
punjab PMLN, southern punjab was se*** over twice so PMLN
sindh PPPP

2018
KPK PTI
punjab PML N
sindh PPPP

result PMLN in center and PPPP and pTI in KPK /sindh

In 2018 election you will see major upsets in strong holds of PMLN in Punjab,
Chances are very high that PTI and PPP will make coalition govt.Reason the common enemy PMLN and to safeguard the democracy

if PMLN is completely disbanded and PTI is able to quickly re-brand itself as Punjabi party rather than nationalist party than PTI might pull over some votes..otherwise impossible

PTI should only form govt with PPPP if its vastly majority party for sake of democracy otherwise it would an upset if they do so and will certainly loose the respect of educated urban KPK like me(as forming as an equal or minority partner with PPPP will mean corruption).
they will than loose in KPK in 2023 horribly

 

[Sal12]

PML N will lose half of its seats in Federal Govt in 2018 as compared to 2013 election. Because Kiyani & Iftikhar chawdhury were instrumental in bringing PML N in Federal with 200 seats. This is not the case now. Having said that there is still probability that PML N can be the top federal party with 100 odd seats.

 

[Shahzaz ud din]

from what i have seen since 1970s..its pretty much straight forward..
assuming that elections are not a laughing setup..the political struture is as follows

1. KPK
urban areas: is always a shift based upon which party promises better
rural areas: regional variations from PPPP,(parts of Dir due to their role in estbalishing states) PMLN (hazara having language relation to punjab and capt safdar), JUI (parts of religious rural KPK), JI(strong movements in part of northern KPK), ANP some rural pushtoon areas

2. Punjab:
simplest province..you need a punjab card
central and upper punjab will vote for punjab card so you either need a variation of some chaudry
you would also need to have local relgious leaders support which you can buy easily
this is true for both urban and rural areas

lower/southern punjab can be swing becasue they sometime think that upper punjab is not promoting development and than language is also an issue, so they voted for PPPP but PPPP screwed them over in 2008-13

3. sindh
they cannot vote for an outsider so its either PPPP(rural) or MQM(urban)

4. Baluchistan
its not a party system, its tribal system... and some JUI seats and other small parties

now in light above you can explain all elections from 2003,2008,2013,and 2018

in 2003 KPK had MMA govt, this time urban supported them too, for sake of corruption and education banner but it didnt work however, they did got not only rural votes(fix bank) but urban as wll and hence, emerged a very large and strong party that became second largest party, PPPP took southern punjab and sindh while PMLQ took punjab

2008
KPK urban areas swung to ANP, punjab again PML, sindh again PPPP and southern punjab again PPPP

2013
IK was very popular in media, every one heard his message(unlike from 2002-2013)
KPK urban swung again to PTI
punjab PMLN, southern punjab was se*** over twice so PMLN
sindh PPPP

2018
KPK PTI
punjab PML N
sindh PPPP

result PMLN in center and PPPP and pTI in KPK /sindh


if PMLN is completely disbanded and PTI is able to quickly re-brand itself as Punjabi party rather than nationalist party than PTI might pull over some votes..otherwise impossible

PTI should only form govt with PPPP if its vastly majority party for sake of democracy otherwise it would an upset if they do so and will certainly loose the respect of educated urban KPK like me(as forming as an equal or minority partner with PPPP will mean corruption).
they will than loose in KPK in 2023 horribly

No rational just guess work

Kiyani & Iftikhar chawdhury were instrumental in bringing PML N in Federal with 200 seats.

You nailed it

 

[ziaulislam]

No rational just guess work

it worked every time, in every election
punjab like sindh will never vote for outsiders be it urban, middle, educated or uneducated class
so PTI needs rebranding and it doesnt has enough time

now a mriacle can happen, let say every supporter of PTI mobilizes the silent minority who doesnt vote(only 50% people vote) than who knows but that is highly unlikely..

PML N will lose half of its seats in Federal Govt in 2018 as compared to 2013 election. Because Kiyani & Iftikhar chawdhury were instrumental in bringing PML N in Federal with 200 seats. This is not the case now. Having said that there is still probability that PML N can be the top federal party with 100 odd seats.

doesnt matter 100 seats will be more than enough to not only form govt in center but also in porvinces with help of free candidates and other smaller parties
my assessment accounts for that..PMLN will obivusly wount get as many as 2018 votes but close to it

i doubt iftikhar had any impact on election, if he had by that logic PTI should have atleast 100 more seats

 

[Sal12]

it worked every time, in every election
punjab like sindh will never vote for outsiders be it urban, middle, educated or uneducated class
so PTI needs rebranding and it doesnt has enough time

now a mriacle can happen, let say every supporter of PTI mobilizes the silent minority who doesnt vote(only 50% people vote) than who knows but that is highly unlikely..


doesnt matter 100 seats will be more than enough to not only form govt in center but also in porvinces with help of free candidates and other smaller parties
my assessment accounts for that..PMLN will obivusly wount get as many as 2018 votes but close to it

i doubt iftikhar had any impact on election, if he had by that logic PTI should have atleast 100 more seats

No. Iftikahr Chudhury together with Kiyani played crucial role in making PML N the single biggest party with 200 odd seats in 2013. There were solid proofs of rigging in 2013 under RO's and these RO's were appointed mainly by the judiciary. Khalil ul Rehman Ramday was awarded by PML N after the results.

You will see massive decline in number of seats for PML N in 2018. But still PML N can be the top party with 100 odd seats due to high illiteracy of people and system which is corrupt to the core.