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What Made These Weird Spirals Over China on Halloween Night?
Evidence points to a new Chinese missile defense system that closely mirrors America's own.
By Kyle Mizokami
Nov 2, 2015 @ 4:27 PM
Chinese Internet, via Shanghaiist
A series of photographs taken October 31st in China's western Xinjiang province appear to depict a new high altitude air defense missile being developed by the Chinese military. The photos, posted that evening to the Chinese Internet, depict unusual corkscrewing contrails, suggesting a high speed missile intentionally being made to slow itself down.
The photos were taken from the town of Korla, near the Chinese government's Korla Missile Test Complex. China has conducted three tests of what outside observers call the SC-19 or "Hit To Kill Interceptor" at Korla. The SC-19 is alleged to be capable of intercepting enemy missile warheads (and possibly satellites) at altitudes of over 100 kilometers.
The spiraling contrail is an important clue about the nature of the missile that left it. Instead of going straight up—the shortest way from Point A to Point B—the missile traveled in a corkscrew pattern. Such a pattern is evidence of a Energy-Management Steering Maneuver(EMSM).
This spiral is comparable to the American THAAD missile (Theater High Altitude Area Defense), which flies extremely fast—its speeds exceed Mach 8—in order to meet enemy warheads descending on their targets from space. This high speed works against THAAD if called upon to intercept a lower altitude threat.
Chinese Internet, via Shanghaiist
In order to compensate and still achieve an intercept, the THAAD missile is programmed to fly an EMSM to slow itself down. This means flying in an energy-dissipating spiral pattern.
We knew previously that China was working on an THAAD-like interceptor, the SC-19. These latest photographs are strong evidence the Chinese are copying THAAD's ability to slow down and intercept targets within the atmosphere. There is pretty much no other reason for a missile to slow down shortly after takeoff.
Once operational, the SC-19 will give China the ability to shoot down incoming ballistic missile warheads. This doesn't mean China would be able to stop an American nuclear attack—that would require a much more complex missile defense system. But it would be able to stop a missile from North Korea, or a smaller attack from India or even Russia.
Even more useful, the SC-19 is likely being developed with the ability to intercept satellites in low Earth orbit. Such a capability would make it dangerous for enemy satellites to venture over Chinese territory—at least at lower orbits.
Due to the closed nature of Chinese military testing, all of this is pretty much conjecture at this point. Still, it's a very good guess, and testament to just how much sharp observers of China's military might learn from a handful of unusual photos.
Here's a video of a THAAD from 2010 that involved a low-altitude intercept. The Chinese system likely has similar characteristics.
What Made These Weird Spirals Over China on Halloween Night?
Evidence points to a new Chinese missile defense system that closely mirrors America's own.
By Kyle Mizokami
Nov 2, 2015 @ 4:27 PM
Chinese Internet, via Shanghaiist
A series of photographs taken October 31st in China's western Xinjiang province appear to depict a new high altitude air defense missile being developed by the Chinese military. The photos, posted that evening to the Chinese Internet, depict unusual corkscrewing contrails, suggesting a high speed missile intentionally being made to slow itself down.
The photos were taken from the town of Korla, near the Chinese government's Korla Missile Test Complex. China has conducted three tests of what outside observers call the SC-19 or "Hit To Kill Interceptor" at Korla. The SC-19 is alleged to be capable of intercepting enemy missile warheads (and possibly satellites) at altitudes of over 100 kilometers.
The spiraling contrail is an important clue about the nature of the missile that left it. Instead of going straight up—the shortest way from Point A to Point B—the missile traveled in a corkscrew pattern. Such a pattern is evidence of a Energy-Management Steering Maneuver(EMSM).
This spiral is comparable to the American THAAD missile (Theater High Altitude Area Defense), which flies extremely fast—its speeds exceed Mach 8—in order to meet enemy warheads descending on their targets from space. This high speed works against THAAD if called upon to intercept a lower altitude threat.
Chinese Internet, via Shanghaiist
In order to compensate and still achieve an intercept, the THAAD missile is programmed to fly an EMSM to slow itself down. This means flying in an energy-dissipating spiral pattern.
We knew previously that China was working on an THAAD-like interceptor, the SC-19. These latest photographs are strong evidence the Chinese are copying THAAD's ability to slow down and intercept targets within the atmosphere. There is pretty much no other reason for a missile to slow down shortly after takeoff.
Once operational, the SC-19 will give China the ability to shoot down incoming ballistic missile warheads. This doesn't mean China would be able to stop an American nuclear attack—that would require a much more complex missile defense system. But it would be able to stop a missile from North Korea, or a smaller attack from India or even Russia.
Even more useful, the SC-19 is likely being developed with the ability to intercept satellites in low Earth orbit. Such a capability would make it dangerous for enemy satellites to venture over Chinese territory—at least at lower orbits.
Due to the closed nature of Chinese military testing, all of this is pretty much conjecture at this point. Still, it's a very good guess, and testament to just how much sharp observers of China's military might learn from a handful of unusual photos.
Here's a video of a THAAD from 2010 that involved a low-altitude intercept. The Chinese system likely has similar characteristics.
What Made These Weird Spirals Over China on Halloween Night?
