What If China Did Invade Pag-asa Island (Thitu island)?

[Viet]

Myanmar and Laos need China too much to oppose us over something that doesn't concern them.

Thailand's got way bigger problems and China is a way bigger help than whole of ASEAN put together.

Brunei and Singapore are city states, no more threat than fly.

Malay and Indo are big countries, but their military are negligible at best and with the current Asian economic climate, they wouldn't risk it. Besides, China is going to take care of Vietnam and Philippines first before we move on. I'm sure the others know they will be next, but human nature dictates, they will still look the other way as countless others have.

The other thing is, who ever gets involved in a war with China and their party is democratic? They will have doomed their party for the loses will be massive and one sided. The whole or ASEAN put together is weaker than one military region or one fleet.

The US admitted as much that they want supremacy in Asia not protection for states. The Philippines is a perfect case, US will say things, but won't actually get involved. The US knows in a war with China the gain is none, even if we lose, we will still have everything in place to replace everything and the whole situation would be back the way it was within 2 years, except America would have lost a ton of men and the party in charge will be the villains.

BTW MAD is mutually assured destruction.


If I were you I work out a deal, for China has no designs on your land, only the seas in a largely symbolic move. We don't even want the resources, we just want to keep out the Americans.

So ask yourself, how do I get the most out of this situation, defend a sea that can't be defended? (naval battles is all about the tech, unlike land where other things also matters)

Or work out a deal, that may even give your country a better position than the one you started in.

You call.

hm...give me a break. you say you are the biggest boy on the street, body full with scared tatoos, possessing the largest house, endless money, largest economics clout, and most importantly having the biggest gun on the street. the mighty but old guy at the other side of the street can no longer dare to challenge you, because you are MAD.

all other small kids will fear to death, even the regional power Indonesia is just a fly, and they know their places. so it is better for VN that we give you what you want. since you are so generous, perhaps you will give us some small changes.

hm...it sounds as if you are a blackmailer.
PS: Laos backed VN in the Sino-VN war of 1979.

 

[JSCh]

How much warning did the Vietnamese get before Chinese took control of Paracels ?

Battle of the Paracel Islands - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Battle of the Paracel Islands was a military engagement between the naval forces of the People's Republic of China and Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam) in Paracel Islands on January 19, 1974. The battle was an escalation of the Republic of Vietnam Navy's efforts to expel Chinese fishing vessels from the vicinity of some of the Paracels.

During the course of the battle, the People's Liberation Army Navy established permanent control over the Crescent Group of the Paracel Islands. Although this result was not part of China's original military objectives, it completed China's control over the Paracels.


Battle_of_the_Paracel_Islands#Historical_background

On July 3, 1938, the French who had colonized Indochina in the 19th century invaded the Paracel Islands. The Nationalist Government of China, which was otherwise occupied with the Second Sino-Japanese War, registered a formal protest.[1] Three days later, on July 6, the Japanese Foreign Ministry also issued a declaration in protest of the French occupation.[2]

In the course of the Second World War, the Japanese defeated the French occupying troops and took over the islands. At the end of the war (Asian-Pacific Region), the government of the Republic of China formally regained the Paracels, Spratlys and other islands in the South China Sea in October and November 1946. In the Geneva accords of 1954, Japan formally renounced all of its claims to, inter alia, the South China Sea islands which it had occupied during the Second World War.[3][4]

Battle_of_the_Paracel_Islands#Aftermath
Aftermath

A potential diplomatic crisis was averted when China quietly released an American prisoner taken during the battle. Gerald Emil Kosh, 27, was a former US Army captain captured with the Vietnamese on Pattle Island. He was described as a “regional liaison officer” for the US Embassy, Saigon on assignment with the South Vietnamese Navy. China released him from custody on January 31 without comment.[14]

North Vietnam gave a glimpse at its worsening relationship with China by conspicuously not congratulating their erstwhile allies; official statements mentioned only a desire for “a peaceful solution”. Indeed, after the reunification of Vietnam in 1975, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam publicly renewed their claim to the Paracels, and this dispute continues to the present day.
==================================================================================
FYI,
Republic of Vietnam is South Vietnam, Socialist Republic of Vietnam is North Vietnam and also the government of Vietnam today.
Republic of China is in Taiwan, People's Republic of China is in China mainland.
The battle is between South Vietnam and People's Republic of China.

 

[JSCh]

This is the original Chinese text of the article from Qianzhan that the OP article refer to:

2014年新年伊始，菲律宾就宣布要在非法侵占的南沙中业岛增加部署海、空军兵力，妄图永久霸占我国领土领海。对于菲律宾的狂妄言论，专家表示，这是历史给解放军的天赐良机，正好趁机将中业岛收回来。

This is Baidu translate

At the beginning of the year 2014, Philippines announced that it would in the illegal occupation of Nansha in the industry Island deployment of additional sea, air force, to permanently occupy Chinese territory. For Philippines's arrogant speech, experts said, this is a godsend to the PLA's history, just took the opportunity to the industry in the island back.

The OP article from the "The Diplomat" talk paragraph after paragraph about China's threatening to take the island, but strangely it has failed to mention that Philippine announced that it would increase navy and air force deployment to the island.

That seem to be a gross omission since it is the first sentence of the Qianzhan's article and the premise that the article threat based on.

I am not surprise since it is the norm that when it come to China related news, Western media throw their journalistic/editorial integrity out the window.

 

[Zero_wing]

This is the original Chinese text of the article from Qianzhan that the OP article refer to:

This is Baidu translate

The OP article from the "The Diplomat" talk paragraph after paragraph about China's threatening to take the island, but strangely it has failed to mention that Philippine announced that it would increase navy and air force deployment to the island.

That seem to be a gross omission since it is the first sentence of the Qianzhan's article and the premise that the article threat based on.

I am not surprise since it is the norm that when it come to China related news, Western media throw their journalistic/editorial integrity out the window.

Because the whole world knew that Philippines is not doing anything illegal just doing its mandate to defend itself from chinese aggression beside a nation threatening almost all of its neighbors that alone speaks for its self

 

[JSCh]

Because the whole world knew that Philippines is not doing anything illegal just doing its mandate to defend itself from chinese aggression beside a nation threatening almost all of its neighbors that alone speaks for its self

Well, the author from "The diplomat" did not mentioned the reason of Chinese reaction. A reader that cannot read Chinese language would have get a wrong read of Chinese position on the matter. And that is a gross omission.

The article is obviously anti-China. One has to assume he/she deliberately omit the announcement by the Philippine government. One has to wonder WHY he/she fail to mention something so obvious if what the Philippines did is innocent as you said.

 

[jhungary]

It would be bad if China invade Thitu island

China will win the battle, but they will lose support to ASEAN and International Quick.

Problem with this move would be preceived as an act of agression toward another country, which go agaisnt the "Peaceful Rise" slogan that Chinese Government are alway trumpeting. Then the only few country left that actually believe Chinese Peaceful Rise will be going to the other side. And the support will pour into Philippine and Any region surrounding China.

Japan would have ask for more budget (More than 1% GDP currently limited)
South Korea would have ask for more US help.
ASEAN would have been pushed to Pro-US and Anti-China camp

The reason of "Since we are big, we can get away with anything" does not blow trumpet, US is big now, you see how country going agaisnt them, in a traditional war science. Yeah, China would easily invade and capture the Island, but by doing so, they will lose the war

If What China want is a further isolation, then invading Thitu island is the right move. HEnce i don't believe Chinese Government would be this stupid as to throw out everything they have enjoying today and do a 180 and gone all militaristic on their neighbor.

Normal Chinese Chest thumper, they don't really care about global politic. they would of course had these kind of military view on subject, but when they are handed a draftee letter, i bet they would think otherwise.....

 

[Krueger]

Thitu Island

China preparing to seize Pag-asa Island (Thitu Island) – report

MANILA, Philippines - The Chinese Navy has drawn up a detailed plan to seize this year the Philippines’ Pag-asa Island in a battle that will be restricted in the South China Sea, according to a Chinese news network.

A report of business and strategy news platform Qianzhan (Prospects) in Mandarin was translated by English news site China Daily Mail and titled “Chinese troops will seize Pag-asa Island, which is called by China Zhongye, back from the Philippines in 2014.”

The report said the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Pag-asa Island which is part of the disputed Spratly Islands.

“According to experts, the Chinese Navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea. The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China,” the report said.

The Philippines’ arrogance, the report said, is an intolerable insult to China.

“There will be no invasion into Filipino territories,” the report said.

The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) declined to comment on the report.

“We don’t comment on news articles that have unnamed and unofficial sources,” said DFA spokesman Raul Hernandez.

The Department of National Defense would have to validate the report about China’s supposed plan to seize Pag-asa Island, defense department spokesman Peter Galvez said.

Military officials declined to comment, saying the DFA is the agency authorized to speak on the matter.

China’s plan to invade Pag-asa Island could be part of Beijing’s 20-year expansion plan for its navy to have total dominance of the disputed Spratlys archipelago, security documents showed.

The document also showed that China’s plan was conceived 14 years ago following Beijing’s illegal occupation of Panganiban (Mishchief) Reef, some 130 nautical miles off Hulugan Bay in mainland Palawan and only 97 nautical miles east of Pag-asa Island.

“China has four to five years left to complete the plan,” an informed security official said, adding that it is already an open secret among Spratly claimant countries – the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan – that China has established a forward naval station at Panganiban Reef.

International defense analyst Greg Polling of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, Southeast Asia Program, had warned two years ago that China has been rushing the construction of several warships specifically designed for its Spratlys naval operations.

Some of these warships that China has been building include hovercrafts capable of carrying one battalion of Marines and four tanks.

Several hovercraft units have already been completed and are just awaiting deployment after several sea trials.

China’s hovercraft project has reportedly solved the People Liberation Army’s problem of transporting warships directly into shallow waters surrounded by coral reefs, shoals and islets occupied by troops of other Spratly claimant countries.

Aside from Panganiban Reef, China has built another naval facility at Subi Reef where its transport ship has regularly been sighted.

China preparing to seize Pag-asa Island (Thitu Island) – report

 

[Fsjal]

This is bad. China could easily occupy Pag-asa.

To Chinese members, Peace is the only way. You may have a good army, but invading Pag-asa by force will ruin your image.

 

[OrionHunter]

The whole or ASEAN put together is weaker than one military region or one fleet.

 

[Zero_wing]

They try but one thing is for sure the Philippine

This is bad. China could easily occupy Pag-asa.

To Chinese members, Peace is the only way. You may have a good army, but invading Pag-asa by force will ruin your image.

Marines they will be facing will not be so easily defeated and please you chinese d bag stop using my county's flag

 

[shuttler]

Oh please, the 50 years law only applies if there is no one disputing the claim. There is plenty of disputing associated with Zhongye island. Also, I have said this many times on this forum, whoever believes minor nations can successfully sue a member of UN permanent security on an UN court needs a serious dose of reality check.

you need to establish between a gap of 50 years that there are protests in between in our favour
I have not heard of that we have lodged a protest in international institutions about the claim
if you have then post your link here please to share
In the absence of such protest, the most effective way is to exert our presence there so as to destroy their claim of "effective control" over the island

it is silly! the permanent seat of unsc is irrelevant to the claim

 

[tranquilium]

you need to establish between a gap of 50 years that there are protests in between in our favour
I have not heard of that we have lodged a protest in international institutions about the claim
if you have then post your link here please to share
In the absence of such protest, the most effective way is to exert our presence there so as to destroy their claim of "effective control" over the island

it is silly! the permanent seat of unsc is irrelevant to the claim

Sure, here you go.
中华人民共和国版图
This is the official Chinese claim and it will stand as long as people's republic of China exists.

To be clear, no international institute has the legal authority to infringe on the internal affair of sovereign nation. Sure, in case of minor nations, UN or other international coalition may be able to influence the case through military strength. For example, if say, US wants to a piece of Afghanistan to Iraq, then it can sit representatives from both side down and hold a gun to their head and force the deal, but at the end of the day, the actual agreement can only occur between the two nations.

Of course, the point is moot regarding to China, because we have long ago proved in the field of battle that military intervention on China is impossible.

 

[shuttler]

Sure, here you go.
中华人民共和国版图
This is the official Chinese claim and it will stand as long as people's republic of China exists.

To be clear, no international institute has the legal authority to infringe on the internal affair of sovereign nation. Sure, in case of minor nations, UN or other international coalition may be able to influence the case through military strength. For example, if say, US wants to a piece of Afghanistan to Iraq, then it can sit representatives from both side down and hold a gun to their head and force the deal, but at the end of the day, the actual agreement can only occur between the two nations.

Of course, the point is moot regarding to China, because we have long ago proved in the field of battle that military intervention on China is impossible.

You are wrong on all the concepts
1. the strongest claim is physical occupation, now the pinoys are having it
Do you know Islas Melvina for Argentina and Falkland islands for the Brits?
Do you know Georgia and which part of it is now occupied by Russia?
2. the dispute between Malaysia and Singapore over the following was resolved through international court
Pedra Branca dispute - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
3. our map for the claim is valid as long as we have to prove it in international institutions and to reinforce my claim of the 50 year rule of no protests
4. Again our presence as a permanent members hold no water in this case and completely irrelevant
5. and why the pinoy is doing this in 仁爱礁 Renai Jiao（Second Thomas Shoal): another disputed island?

credit: interaksyon.com

Credit: maritimesecurity

Credit: nytimes

In conclusion we have to resort to point 1 that is to engage in the dispute phyiscally with the pinoys by mooring our ship(s) there within the EEZ! This is the first step!

 

[Zero_wing]

Man give it up imperials

 

[tranquilium]

You are wrong on all the concepts
1. the strongest claim is physical occupation, now the pinoys are having it
Do you know Islas Melvina for Argentina and Falkland islands for the Brits?
Do you know Georgia and which part of it is now occupied by Russia?
2. the dispute between Malaysia and Singapore over the following was resolved through international court
Pedra Branca dispute - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
3. our map for the claim is valid as long as we have to prove it in international institutions and to reinforce my claim of the 50 year rule of no protests
4. Again our presence as a permanent members hold no water in this case and completely irrelevant
5. and why the pinoy is doing this in 仁爱礁 Renai Jiao（Second Thomas Shoal): another disputed island?

Funny you should mentioned Falkland. Do you know what would happen if Argentina defeats UK in the conflict? Falkland would fall right under Argentina control, not to mention that Falkland is still disputed today. Would you like to wager a bet on the outcome of a military confront between China and Philippine over Zhongye island?
While it is good that Malaysia and Singapore can resolve their difference through the help of international legal court, if you bothered to read your article more carefully, the international court, at not point, granted any part jurisdiction over actual territory. The binding action is Singapore and Malaysia government's agreement to the ICJ rule. Basically the international court is there to help hammering out a deal, but the decision to accept it or not rest fully with Singapore and Malaysia.
As for "completely irrelevant", Georgians protested against Russia in UN or called for NATO, did it do anything? Palestinians protested and partitioned countless times in UN, did it do anything against US? Vietnam tried to sue China in UN, did it do anything? Of course not. The fundamental of any legal institute is the ability to enforce its rule. Being a member of UN permanent security council means that particular nation has a level of strength such that UN or any other international institute simply does not have ability to enforce their will upon that nation.