We can block Strait of Hormuz , but USA can open it : Former IRGC Commander

[Kastor]

Attacking U.S. military assets preemptively? That scenario is very risky and I'm not sure if it will yield anything for Iran...with much of our oil capacity, infrastructure, assets and military attacked and possibly destroyed what can we stand to gain? I think the better idea is a contained military action, a sort of tit for tat which even then would be greatly disproportionate in U.S. favor. Still though, some of you are correct, just mining a few kilometers of the strait is enough to yield the proper result. No need for a wide scale action which invariably will result in huge losses for Iran. Iran would be wise to use more covert action, such as crippling UAE's and Aramco's oil terminals. Cyber attacks on both of those countries would also be a better strategy than open warfare. Oil will jump to 150 Dollars in a few days. Gas prices will spike to 4.00 also, the 1 Dollar rise in gas prices will equate to 140 Billion dollar hit to the U.S. consumer household, this figure does not take into account implicit costs, such as manufacturing, exports and savings. The psychological cost in the stock market will be double or triple that figure, the price tag to the world economy can be many times that. Already at $2.80 a gallon a 1/3 of Mr. Trumps illogic tax cut has evaporated. I believe Iran will be the first important lesson for Mr. Trump that USA is not an island. The global economy is real and working with other countries instead of enmity is beneficial to all.

https://nypost.com/2018/05/10/rising-gas-prices-are-killing-one-third-of-trumps-tax-plan-benefits/

 

[AUz]

We do not need to physically close the strait, Just announcing it is close is enough.

which ship has the balls to ignore it

U.S ships....Firing on U.S ships means end of Iran as it exists today.

U.S navy will easily take control of the straits and business will be as usual within a week. While Iranians will be getting bombed to hell for their attempt to close the straits...

Gambit is right---Iran does not have any thing to oppose U.S naval and air might. U.S will stream roll Iranian forces at sea and air. After that, Iranian land forces will be just sitting ducks unless they hide deep in Iranian mainland. At which point the whole "we will close strait of hormouz" mantra goes to sh!t as coastal waters and airspace around it will be under U.S domination.

 

[TheImmortal]

U.S ships....Firing on U.S ships means end of Iran as it exists today.

U.S navy will easily take control of the straits and business will be as usual within a week. While Iranians will be getting bombed to hell for their attempt to close the straits...

Gambit is right---Iran does not have any thing to oppose U.S naval and air might. U.S will stream roll Iranian forces at sea and air. After that, Iranian land forces will be just sitting ducks unless they hide deep in Iranian mainland. At which point the whole "we will close strait of hormouz" mantra goes to sh!t as coastal waters and airspace around it will be under U.S domination.

Poor Iran, so powerless to stop the Big Bad Empire.

And yet....in last 20 years Iran has grown in immensely in power. In last 20 years, the US has not engaged an Iranian soldier outside of Iran’s borders or inside. In last 20 years, US has lost 3 wars (Afghan, Iraq, and Syria) to iran.

Make no mistake about it, after two of the biggest Neocon/Warhawk governments in the HISTORY of the US (George W Bush admin and Donald Trump adminstration) PASS on war with Iran then Iran will be left untouched for DECADES. Any adminstration after this period of time would be hard pressed to ever want war with iran. Iran knows this and is operating the long game.

The US Navy can not operate in a war time Persian Gulf: Iran has diesel submarines which the US Navy has a very hard time tracking. On top of that, hundreds of anti ship cruise missiles line a coast line that would be impossible to detect by air without setting up a beachhead and invading Iran’s southern shores. On top of that, there are hundreds of manned and unmanned patrol boats lined with cruise missiles/explosives. On top of that, Navy seals running night time sabatoge missions. List goes on and on...

No amount of AirPower would stop missiles from continuously being fired from Iran (see 60 day War, Houthi/Saudi War, Desert Storm as proof).

Thus US Navy would be forced to send in marines to invade Iranian coastline and set up a massive beachhead in order to push the threat of missiles further away from iranian coastline. This would be a costly disaster for the US as now it has boots on the ground in harms way to many different asymmetrical attacks. This option would be unlikely to succeed in stopping Iran from launching cruise missiles and denying access to PG.

Thus the threat of anti ship missiles is too great, all US Navy Destroyers would have to have their radars on ready to engage an numerous amount of anti ship missile threats. Thus they would light up like Christmas trees for Anti-radiation Ballistic missiles and one Persian Gulf missile would rip the biggest destroyer in half upon impact.

So the US fleet would have to pick their poison....turn off radars and emit no radiation and be helpless to a swarm of boats and anti ship missiles.... OR keep them on and get sunk by a Khajil fars Anti radiation missile fired from 250-500KM away.

If the US pulls back from PG and operates out of Indian Ocean then it’s nullfies the impact of air power as the distance becomes greater and the planes have less ability to stay in war theater before refueling. Thus the PG will remain closed or in a state of war which would cost the world economy dearly.

If things escalate it is easy for Iran to sink many US ships as they are highly vulernable. They weren’t designed to fend off waves of missiles.

Now I don’t see Iran making that decision lightly, Iran would likely be restrained until either a miscalculation happens or it is pushed against the wall to defend itself.

Iran would prefer to keep it to a small brief highly limited skirmish. Even if losses for Iran end up being greater than the US...that is okay. Once UN steps in and both sides end hostilities it ends up being a big win for Iran to go nuclear.

However, if the either side miscalculates what the other is willing to accept in terms of attack....then full on warfare would be devasting for both sides and very costly.

Furthermore, expect Russia/China to covertly provide Iran up to date intel and targeting data of all US military assets. After all, they would be more than glad to make the US bleed in a war.

 

[pin gu]

I have a question for supporters of this idea . why do you think Americans will try to open this blockade ?

From every aspect I look at it , its only in benefit of Americans that Iran do something like that.

 

[timmy_area51]

I have a question for supporters of this idea . why do you think Americans will try to open this blockade ?

From every aspect I look at it , its only in benefit of Americans that Iran do something like that.

for mere political postures . if iran does a show of force like that , it's simply bad for american

 

[pin gu]

for mere political postures . if iran does a show of force like that , it's simply bad for american

Okay lets now list the things are good for U.S :

They have already secured their oil supplies for their domestic usage .oil prices will rise in case of blockade and they have no problem with that since their shale oil production actually needs higher oil prices . LNG and gas prices will rise too and U.S is a big producer at LNG too.China(main U.S rival ) will have struggle to find oil .

It will lead to conflict between Iran,SA,UAE,Kuwait,Qatar,Bahrain and Iraq . U.S will have bigger market for Arms sales and this time threat is real for these countries so its huge boost in U.s Arms market .

based on behavior of U.S in WW2 I can tell you U.S will choose to stay aside and watch world fight again like they did it in WW2 then they will come into this conflict to be the winner again ( but not so soon )

 

[timmy_area51]

not everything the US does makes sense

 

[VEVAK]

No. It would not be.

How long can Iran hold the block while under constant bombardment from US?

When we look at the map of the region, it is clear that Iran's access to open water is weak, as in the Gulf of Oman. US airpower will control that body of water. If we chose to open the strait, it would not be for our needs but for our allies'. All the talk about controlling oil to bring US down was all for nothing. But if we chose not to open the strait, we can bomb the strait and either seal the Iranian Navy in the Persian Gulf or destroy it in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea as Iranian ships tries to escape. There is no winning for the Iranian Navy. I know the gullible will trot out the usual hype of the Millennium Challenge 2002 as if somehow the US Navy will obediently repeat the same conditions for Iran to replicate what General Van Riper did. Give that a rest.

We have no interests in landing on Iranian soil. For what? Yes, we have learned and learned more from Iraq than from Afghanistan. In both countries, we have non-military interests that we put upon ourselves. For Iran, we will not care what happens after the Iranian military is rendered impotent. We will leave Iran a mess if it comes to that. In the air and on the water, technical skills counts more than nationalistic passions and we will control those environments.

Aside from learning and comprehending that in a war against Iran the U.S. will have to park it's Naval fleet in Arabian Sea and at least 400km from Iranian soil almost everything else U.S. learned in the 2002 sim is useless today!

In 2002 Iran's most accurate Ballistic Missile was the earlier version of the Fatteh-110 that had a CEP of 150 meters at 150km and over 300 meters at it's max range of 250km! (Barley enough to cross most areas of the Persian Gulf and hit relatively large target) today upgraded versions of that very same missile can achieve a CEP of -20 Meters at 700km!

That means any U.S. Base, financial or political asset within ~700km of Iran will be targeted by precision guided Iranian BM and Iran can easily target any U.S. base within 1500km to disrupt operations so patrolling the Persian Gulf using armed fighter jets & Helo's will NOT be an easily achievable task

Yes today the U.S. can fire Nukes from subs and nuke every major Iranian military base and wipe out or disable over 80% of Iran's military capabilities in under a week easily if it so chooses but short of using a large scale nuclear attack a war with Iran will NOT be so easy! ​

Yes today the U.S. can park it's ships in the Red Sea and in the Arabian Sea and start firing on Iranian costal targets using Cruise Missiles
Yes today U.S. bombers can takeoff from Diego Garcia and head towards Iran and stay out of reach of Iran's retaliatory capabilities
Yes today U.S. F-15E & F-35's can takeoff from bases beyond 1000 km and start working their way into Iranian territory

BUT short of a large scale nuclear attack! Iran is NOT going to stand by and let the U.S. hit it's bases without responding! And one of Iran's main targets will be U.S. puppets of the region! Saudi Royal family, UAE leaders & royals, Bahrain leaders.... So in the attempt to make Iran a puppet state U.S. will have to risk loosing it's current puppet states!!!!!!!! That is a fact American Leadership needs to fully comprehend!


Today if I was to say Iran's stockpile of BM and Cruise Missiles beyond 300km is over 50 times what it was in 2002 I would be grossly underestimating Iran's capabilities! Hell today Iran's yearly +300km BM & Cruise Missile production is easily over 20X Iran's entire 2002 stockpile of +300km BM and Cruise Missiles!

Iran's 2002 ability to acquire and or produce sensor, possessors, modern batteries, modern composites, modern tools and software.... compared to today are as different as night and day!
Today any country with half of Iran's technological & industrial capabilities can scrap together a self propelled smart mine at a relatively low cost or swarm of quadcopters packed with warheads.... and just because Iran doesn't advertise such systems doesn't mean they don't have them!


Yes the number of Fighter Jets Iran operates, Iran's blue water Naval capabilities, the number of Iranian MBT & Helicopters hasn't changed by all that much but almost everything else has!

 

[pin gu]

U.S already started to secure oil ...

Venezuelan president Maduro targeted with drone bombs

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been targeted in an attempted attack during a televised public address, officials confirm. Several explosives-laden drones detonated as he was speaking at a military ceremony.
Venezuela's Information Minister Jorge Rodriguez has confirmed that an attack on Maduro took place at the event. Several drones rigged with explosives went off close to the presidential box during the address.

“All the investigations have indicated that (the explosions) were an attack on President Nicholas Maduro,” Rodriguez told media

Maduro has been moved to safety and is carrying on with his duties, he said. Seven National Guard soldiers have been injured as a result of the failed assassination, according to Rodriguez. The extent of their injuries has not been revealed.

In the video from the scene, Maduro and the officials standing beside him could be seen looking up in the air seconds before the address was cut off. The feed then cuts to a wide shot of the gathered servicemen, who break formation and start scattering.


https://www.rt.com/news/435133-maduro-venezuela-explosion-address/

 

[haman10]

U.S ships....Firing on U.S ships means end of Iran as it exists today.

U.S navy will easily take control of the straits and business will be as usual within a week. While Iranians will be getting bombed to hell for their attempt to close the straits...

Gambit is right---Iran does not have any thing to oppose U.S naval and air might. U.S will stream roll Iranian forces at sea and air. After that, Iranian land forces will be just sitting ducks unless they hide deep in Iranian mainland. At which point the whole "we will close strait of hormouz" mantra goes to sh!t as coastal waters and airspace around it will be under U.S domination.

Oh dear we fired on US NAVY ships and they didn't do shit, we've heard these rants since the beginning of Time, thank you.

 

[Great Brahmin]

Hossein Alaei is a kaffir Zionist agent put in his position by the Jews to undermine the rule of Islam in the Islamic republic of Iran, He should be crucified in the Azadi Square so he can be a lesson for the rest of the kaffirs.

@padamchen what happened to Iranic people of Flames ?

 

[Saddam Hussein]

No. It would not be.

How long can Iran hold the block while under constant bombardment from US?

When we look at the map of the region, it is clear that Iran's access to open water is weak, as in the Gulf of Oman. US airpower will control that body of water. If we chose to open the strait, it would not be for our needs but for our allies'. All the talk about controlling oil to bring US down was all for nothing. But if we chose not to open the strait, we can bomb the strait and either seal the Iranian Navy in the Persian Gulf or destroy it in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea as Iranian ships tries to escape. There is no winning for the Iranian Navy. I know the gullible will trot out the usual hype of the Millennium Challenge 2002 as if somehow the US Navy will obediently repeat the same conditions for Iran to replicate what General Van Riper did. Give that a rest.

We have no interests in landing on Iranian soil. For what? Yes, we have learned and learned more from Iraq than from Afghanistan. In both countries, we have non-military interests that we put upon ourselves. For Iran, we will not care what happens after the Iranian military is rendered impotent. We will leave Iran a mess if it comes to that. In the air and on the water, technical skills counts more than nationalistic passions and we will control those environments.

And in the very end, apart from all the military facts that might place the US in a superior position to Iran militarily as an aggressor which you're so proud of.. the region doesn't want your American noses into our business. All you've managed to do is create trouble and hell, no one needs your freedom. It's quite understandable that these Mullah lunatics can bank on all the 'Great satan USA rhetoric' considering illegal and uninvited American meddling in the middle east and Iran since the 50's.

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

@padamchen what happened to Iranic people of Flames ?

@Cthulhu uses a lot of sarcasm..

 

[LeGenD]

retired and retard.

He have more credibility then Iranian keyboard warriors.

Since he is no longer serving, he is in the position to speak his mind and tell people the truth.

The primitive ancestor of this system killed dozens of Israeli aircraft in 1973, who also thought they would easily achieve air superiority.

A single system screwed their day. With 3 times longer range, this distant future Iranian relative has the potential to do the same for enemies around the strait of Hormuz.

Let me show you what Iraq had in 1991:-

Are you kidding me?

Iraq fielded the most sophisticated network of AA/AD systems in the Middle East by 1991. According to European sources, Baghdad alone was more heavily defended than every major city in Europe at the time.

Iraq AA/AD capabilities were state-of-the-art to large extent in 1991. Have a look:-

SA-2 battalions

SA-3 Gecko

SA-6 Gainful

SA-9 Gaskin

SA-8 Gecko

SA-13 Gopher

AMX-30 Roland

Complete picture:-

"By the summer of 1990, Iraq possessed 16,000 radar-guided and heatseeking surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), including the Soviet SA-2, SA-3, SA-6, SA-7, SA-8, SA-9, SA-13, SA-14, and SA-16, and the Franco-German Roland. Additional air defense was provided by Air Force interceptors and organic Army assets, including the SA-7/14, SA-8, SA-9/13, SA-16 missile systems, and the ZSU-23/4 self-propelled AAA system. In addition, the Iraqi air defense had more than 7,500 AAA pieces protecting all targets of value, some deployed on the roofs of numerous buildings in Baghdad housing government facilities. These weapons -- 57-mm and 37-mm AAA pieces, ZSU-23/4 and ZSU-57/2 self-propelled AAA systems, and hundreds of 14.5-mm and 23-mm light antiaircraft weapons -- formed the backbone of the integrated air defense network. In major high value target areas (such as Baghdad, airfields, chemical agent production complexes, and nuclear facilities) the combined arms air defense could prove lethal to aircraft operating below 10,000 feet." - Global Security

---

Intercepting Tomahawk class cruise missiles is not as easy as it may sound in theory. Remember the Shayrat incident in Syria in 2017? Even Russians fled from that airbase when they learned about the impending attack.

---

I am not saying that you do not bolster your defenses; I am pointing out the obvious. If you find yourself on the receiving end of the US, your armed forces and country would be in ruins after the engagement.

Best course of action is to adopt an "adaptive foreign policy."

---

Oh dear we fired on US NAVY ships and they didn't do shit, we've heard these rants since the beginning of Time, thank you.

USN on the whole is exceptionally powerful and capable. Those incompetent officers were sacked by USN authorities after a thorough investigation of causes of their captivity.

Now google "Operation Praying Mantis."

 

[padamchen]

@padamchen what happened to Iranic people of Flames ?

Still confused. But the inner self fighting back.

The Persians should look at the Kurds. Though ideally it's they who should have led the way back.

Cheers, Doc