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‘We are clearly heading towards a situation India is facing’: Pakistan’s ticking Covid timebomb

PakSword

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India’s crisis sparks a wave of sympathy in neighbouring Pakistan, but also alarm that the country may be next

When Dr Muhammad Suhail looks at the distressing reports of India’s battle against coronavirus, he fears it may be a forewarning of what could happen in his own hospital in northwest Pakistan.

His wards are already full of Covid-19 patients, yet the numbers keep creeping up and in the surrounding city of Peshawar residents refuse to abide by social distancing precautions.

The spectacle of India’s hospitals running out of oxygen, its crematoria setting up makeshift funeral pyres, and thousands of deaths has set off a wave of sympathy in neighbouring Pakistan, but also alarm that the country may be struck next.

Dr Suhail said at his Hayatabad Medical Complex, all 130 beds were now full. “We are clearly heading towards a situation India is facing today,” he told the Telegraph.

“Both Pakistan and India have same issues. People in both countries aren’t following the [precautions].”

Pakistan has seen a jump in recorded tallies of cases and deaths in recent weeks.

The country of around 220 million is currently recording an average of around 5,500 cases and 130 deaths per day – similar levels to the peak of the first wave seen last June. A lack of testing means those official figures are thought to be a significant undercount.

The government has admitted that the number of patients needing oxygen is far higher than it was last summer.

Pakistani authorities are racing to add more beds and ventilators at hospitals to stave off shortages, but doctors say unless the government can persuade people to be more careful, nothing can stop a health crisis.

At nearby Khyber Teaching Hospital, Dr Jawad Khan said its 150 beds were also all full.

“We can see a sudden spike in patients due to a lack of standard operating procedures (SOPs), like neighbouring India,” he said. Doctors were continuously trying to make available more beds, ventilators and oxygen supplies, “but all depends on preventive measures,” he said.

“The government should make arrests, seal shops and markets along with jail terms and heavy penalties to send a clear message that the violators of SOPs wouldn’t get spared,” he said.

The arrival of new easily spread mutant variants, government complacency and a public refusal to abide by distancing restrictions have all been blamed for India's crisis.

Pakistan too has struggled to get people to abide by restrictions, leaving ministers to plead with the public to take greater care. Polling has shown that many believe the risk from Covid-19 has been overstated.

Travel from India has been banned, including the closure of the land border at Wagah, and tensions between the neighbours mean there are no direct flights. Yet while officials who have seen sequencing data say there is no sign in Pakistan yet of the “double mutant” variant found in India, the easily transmissible UK variant has taken widespread hold.

Pakistan's underfunded health system may be even less able to cope with a serious surge of cases than India's. Both spend little on public health, but Pakistan spends 3.2 per cent of GDP compared with 3.5 per cent in India, according to World Bank figures.

Vaccination has barely begun in Pakistan, with so far only a fraction of one per cent of the country having been given a jab. The programme shows no sign of soon speeding up either, with the government waiting on its first consignment of doses from the Covax scheme and otherwise reliant on Chinese donations.

Imran Khan, the prime minister, announced late last week that troops would be deployed to help police enforce distancing rules. The army's information wing on Monday said soldiers “will go to every corner of Pakistan to ensure the protection of citizens”.

Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar told a press conference: “The primary purpose of deployment of army troops is to help civil institutions and law enforcement agencies.”

He went on: “In this testing time, Pakistan Army will use all its capabilities to take every possible step for the protection of citizens and their lives. [We] will go to every corner of Pakistan to ensure the protection of citizens.”

Health officials welcomed the extra support from the military.

Dr Javid Ali, at Peshawar's Lady Reading Hospital, said the deployment was the “right step at the right time”.

“Presently, we need strict enforcement of the precautionary measures as the hospitals, it seems, would soon be overwhelmed by patients.”


 
Same analysis was done about Pakistan last year as well but it all turned out to be false.
 
Same analysis was done about Pakistan last year as well but it all turned out to be false.

Telegraph is definitely an anti-Pak media outlet. Nevertheless we need to be extremely cautious.
 
Last year you were facing a docile Chinese variant now you are up against a triple mutant Indian supa powa variant.
My friend here who lives 100km away; is from Pak... prof - his relatives all came down near islamabad. 2 died. i was speaking with him last night, he was saying it is pretty bad there but noone is adhere to rules. Not sure if true; it is a ticking time bomb.
 
Last year you were facing a docile Chinese variant now you are up against a triple mutant Indian supa powa variant.
Indians entry is banned in Pakistan and also Middle East has suspended flights from India so chances of Indian variant entering into Pakistan via UAE and Saudia Arab is pretty low. Also the corona numbers in Pakistan is very much undercontrol as compared to India or Iran
 
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My friend here who lives 100km away; is from Pak... prof - his relatives all came down near islamabad. 2 died. i was speaking with him last night, he was saying it is pretty bad there but noone is adhere to rules. Not sure if true; it is a ticking time bomb.
your friend is right, situation is not as bad as in India but it is a ticking bomb. People are least bothered, as if corona does not exist. Lets pray that Allah saves us from this terrible disease.
Indians entry is banned in Pakistan and also Middle East has suspended flights from India so chance of Indian variant entering into Pakistan via UAE and Saudia Arab is pretty low. Also the corona numbers in Pakistan is every muchodesg as compare to India or Iran
you never know when the virus could have mutated and transferred to someone.
 
Harsh punishments should be delivered against people found breaking the rules. Cane them and hand out massive fines.
I think government should build makeshift detention centers to put people breaking the laws for a couple of weeks there..

Just pic them up, put them in the detention center without access to any courts, and release them upon paying the rent/ food expense that too only after two weeks..

After this, we will not require isolation/ care centers for covid patients.
 
Indians entry is banned in Pakistan and also Middle East has suspended flights from India so chance of Indian variant entering into Pakistan via UAE and Saudia Arab is pretty low. Also the corona numbers in Pakistan is every muchodesg as compare to India or Iran

it’s not, ask @PakSword I believe he posted news of cross border visitors from India. I can’t remember which thread...
 
Hopefully with troops deployed to enforce SOPs things will take a turn for the better.
 
Indians entry is banned in Pakistan and also Middle East has suspended flights from India so chance of Indian variant entering into Pakistan via UAE and Saudia Arab is pretty low. Also the corona numbers in Pakistan is every muchodesg as compare to India or Iran
Everyone thought chances of Chinese variant entering their country was low, it would only be a few isolated cases, all would be fine in a few weeks, etc. Look where we are now.

The Indian variant is probably already here and not reported. Government should just declare a state of emergency to save the economy and impose a total lockdown with the army's help.
 
it’s not, ask @PakSword I believe he posted news of cross border visitors from India. I can’t remember which thread...
No I didn't.. But I am sure that the variant is already here..

If that variant has reached the UK and Switzerland, it's very easy for it to reach Pakistan.. People mingle at the airports/ planes.. and a lot of communities work in gulf from where people visit their countries quite often. It's not hard to imagine that when everyone was focusing on CHina to stop the spread and still it reached every corner of the world, why on Earth this new variant can't reach everywhere with Indians travelling to the entire world until recently.
 
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